AFL 2020 Brownlow Medal

[Johnsonator]

what bookie pls?

SB but I placed it 3 weeks ago, so odds may have shortened

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Sportsbet - I'd like a market please on the combined votes on respective hair colours of the top 5 - thanks in advance.

 

[Johanpetro]

Speaking of long odds, what is everyone’s favourite over odds multi that has a chance?
Mine is - Most Team Votes
- Danger (GEEL)
- Gaff (WCE)
- Marshall (w/o Steele) (STK)
- Macrae (WBD)
- Cripps (CARL)
- Goldstein (NM)
- Kelly (GWS)
- Lloyd (w/o Parker) (SYD)

$5 on, $54k return

the odds have halved. $5 gets you 26k

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

In all seriousness - at this stage this may will be the last year I do the thread in this form. A number have correctly identified that books are reading this (the change in markets/prices taken down etc is too coincidental) and a private forum may be better for the level of discussion many are contributing to this thread. Always happy to reassess or reconsider.

 

[Johanpetro]

In all seriousness - at this stage this may will be the last year I do the thread in this form. A number have correctly identified that books are reading this (the change in markets/prices taken down etc is too coincidental) and a private forum may be better for the level of discussion many are contributing to this thread. Always happy to reassess or reconsider.

100% a private discord is the way to go. Open to only bigfooty members who have posted a certain amount or registered within a year or 2 or something. It’s a joke how quickly the markets get suspended once posted here

 

[alhay6]

As someone who used to work for a bookmaker, I can assure that they are not viewing this forum. What happens is that they will see a lot of bets come in for a certain market in a small period of time, and then instinctively reduce the odds as you would on any other market being backed heavily. With such niche markets that usually have low liquidity, it is glaringly obvious when a bunch of people are backing the same bet. So even if you created a private forum, the odds will still get crunched the same way because the market will attract the same sort of activity.

 

[LIONS15v]

Already suspended lol

Sheed woulda made this go just under anyways

 

[alhay6]

100% a private discord is the way to go. Open to only bigfooty members who have posted a certain amount or registered within a year or 2 or something. It’s a joke how quickly the markets get suspended once posted here

I think people here are just shocked at how little it can take to move a market. Go over to twitter and look some of the more unique sports/markets that people tweet out and you will see the odds also get smashed quickly. It's a simple reaction to a lot of activity.

 

[Geeves Train]

In all seriousness - at this stage this may will be the last year I do the thread in this form. A number have correctly identified that books are reading this (the change in markets/prices taken down etc is too coincidental) and a private forum may be better for the level of discussion many are contributing to this thread. Always happy to reassess or reconsider.

Issue would always be that regardless of the forum, sportsbet can always just wait to see bets rolling in and then just suspend markets as soon as they get 2-3 bets in a short period. I do think a private forum is beneficial as it stops first time readers diving in and getting overs over people who have been posting all year.

Hopefully after Sunday none of us will have sportsbet accounts left as we have all won tens of thousands and they switch us off!!

 

[Johanpetro]

As someone who used to work for a bookmaker, I can assure that they are not viewing this forum. What happens is that they will see a lot of bets come in for a certain market in a small period of time, and then instinctively reduce the odds as you would on any other market being backed heavily. With such niche markets that usually have low liquidity, it is glaringly obvious when a bunch of people are backing the same bet. So even if you created a private forum, the odds will still get crunched the same way because the market will attract the same sort of activity.

A private forum might stop the filthy casual lurkers ruining the odds for us hard working veterans. You know who you are.

 

[freo_leo29]

I usually agree but I think the Brownlow as an event may be different.

This is also like the biggest Brownlow discussion you can find on the internet

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

I'm down for a private forum/discord for next year, I'll be doing a full count next year as I watch most games anyway.

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

While I do think Sportsbet do view this thread, the markets getting suspended is more than likely from people who lurk this thread without an account and back any bet that gets posted that has a few likes. There must be hundreds of people lurking this thread we don't know of.

 

[chennef]

Love the work you guys have done! Read through a lot of posts haha.

Anyone else having issues submitting BYOB brownlow markets? Keep trying via app and website, keeps erroring out

 

[Sportsbet]

A private forum might stop the filthy casual lurkers ruining the odds for us hard working veterans. You know who you are.

I put my hand up for using other people’s hard work, but I’m usually too slow to get my bet on so basically never ruin the odds for anyone else

 

[alhay6]

I think the solution in future years is for people to discuss their counts/opinions without alluding to certain bets. That would stop lurkers from being able to leech off the more niche bets. Rather people can provide the information for people to make their own bets and decisions. So maybe a ban on posts talking about specific odds/bets as a way to stop odds getting crunched so quickly?

 

[alhay6]

And definitely a ban on people asking for bets/counts - which is the most obvious form of leeching.

 

[Sportsbet]

And definitely a ban on people asking for bets/counts - which is the most obvious form of leeching.

Most people who ask for counts generally get told to look back through the last 100 pages. Which is good.

 

[LIONS15v]

I put my hand up for using other people’s hard work, but I’m usually too slow to get my bet on so basically never ruin the odds for anyone else

Plot twist, you actually for work SB and used a name so obvious that nobody would suspect you. Eventually you infiltrate the private group as the insideman and hailed as a hero within your workplace.

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Plot twist, you actually for work SB and used a name so obvious that nobody would suspect you. Eventually you infiltrate the private group as the insideman and hailed as a hero within your workplace.

Now that I think of it markets started to get taken down very quickly once posted here ever since Sportsbet made an account and started posting.

 

[LIONS15v]

Now that I think of it markets started to get taken down very quickly once posted here ever since Sportsbet made an account and started posting.

Burn the witch!!

 

[Sportsbet]

No need to panic guys haha, you can trust me. I’m a uh disgruntled former employee haha.

 

[Sportsbet]

I think the solution in future years is for people to discuss their counts/opinions without alluding to certain bets. That would stop lurkers from being able to leech off the more niche bets. Rather people can provide the information for people to make their own bets and decisions. So maybe a ban on posts talking about specific odds/bets as a way to stop odds getting crunched so quickly?

Lol this would be hilariously difficult to do. Isn’t this forum all about sharing so that collectively we can all take a good piece out of the bookies? The odds will crunch in no matter what, it’s all about how quickly you can alert as much people as possible to take advantage. So I implore you all to keep posting obvious value bets so that we can all identify them and beat those bookies!

 

[Gazza Guru]

Here is my full count. I delayed until I had all of my wagers on. Well done to those who shared theirs in the past weeks.


I use a weighted system and usually find that my weighted is closer to the mark with actual projected votes more showing an ability to outpoll expectations. I have watched every game this year and quite a few I watched twice.


I mainly play in the winner into flag bets during the season and then multis with club team votes, head to heads, handicaps, groups at the end of the season. I don’t do top 5/10/20 etc so am not too concerned where guys fit into those areas. I have not changed any of my votes since seeing any other counts from various sources, including on here. I more use other counts as further confirmation on guys I have winning.


Weighted votes mentioned first and then actual votes where I give a 3,2,1 per game.

Overall leaderboard :

Neale 23.75 / 28
Boak 17/23
Steele 15.5 / 19
Parker 15.5 / 18
Gawn 13.25 / 18
Cripps 12.5 / 17
Danger 12.5 / 15
Dusty 12.75 / 14
Fyfe 13 / 14
Pendles 11.25 / 15
Bont 12 / 16
Nicnat 11 /15
Merrett 10.75 / 14
Petracca 11.75 / 13
Wines 10.75 / 13
T Kelly 10.25 / 13


Team votes

Adel
Obrien 6.75 / 9
Laird 5.25 / 6
M Crouch 3 / 3

Bris
Zorko 7.5 / 11
Berry 4.5 / 6
Lyons 4 / 4

Carl
Cripps 12.5 / 17
Walsh 6.25 / 8

Coll
Pendles 11.25 /15
Adams 7.75 / 9

Ess
Merrett 10.75 / 14
Shiel 9.25 / 12
Mcgrath 5.75 / 8

Freo
Fyfe 13 / 14
Walters 6.75 / 8
Brayshaw 5.5 / 7

GC
Rowell 6.75 / 9
Miller 6.5 / 9

Geel
Danger 12.25 / 15
Menegola 10 / 12
Guthrie 7.5 / 10

GWS
Whitfield 10.75 / 13
Kelly 6.75 / 9
Greene 5.75 / 7

Haw
Mitchell 10 / 13
Wingard 2.75 / 5

Melb
Gawn 13.25 / 18
Petracca 11.75 / 13

North
Higgins 5.75 / 7
Anderson 5 / 7
Goldy 4.75 / 6

Port
Wines 10.75 / 13
Dixon 8 / 11
Gray 5.75 / 7
Rockliff 4/4

Rich
Cotchin 5 / 7
Bolton 4.25 / 5
Lambert 3.25 / 4

Stk
Marshall 6.75 / 10
Jones 5.5 / 8
Billings 4.25 / 6

Syd
Heeney 4 / 6
Kennedy 4.75 / 4
Papley 2.75 / 3

Dogs
Bont 12 / 16
Macrae 11.5 / 14

WC ( yes the very well talked about WC votes – that chat has been fun but obviously other clubs are more important to me )
Nicnat 11 / 15
Kelly 10.25 / 13
Gaff 5.5 / 6
Kennedy 4.75 / 6
Sheed 2.25 / 4

Good luck to all of the key contributors on here, I hope you all land some big collects.

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Here is my full count. I delayed until I had all of my wagers on. Well done to those who shared theirs in the past weeks.


I use a weighted system and usually find that my weighted is closer to the mark with actual projected votes more showing an ability to outpoll expectations. I have watched every game this year and quite a few I watched twice.


I mainly play in the winner into flag bets during the season and then multis with club team votes, head to heads, handicaps, groups at the end of the season. I don’t do top 5/10/20 etc so am not too concerned where guys fit into those areas. I have not changed any of my votes since seeing any other counts from various sources, including on here. I more use other counts as further confirmation on guys I have winning.


Weighted votes mentioned first and then actual votes where I give a 3,2,1 per game.

Overall leaderboard :

Neale 23.75 / 28
Boak 17/23
Steele 15.5 / 19
Parker 15.5 / 18
Gawn 13.25 / 18
Cripps 12.5 / 17
Danger 12.5 / 15
Dusty 12.75 / 14
Fyfe 13 / 14
Pendles 11.25 / 15
Bont 12 / 16
Nicnat 11 /15
Merrett 10.75 / 14
Petracca 11.75 / 13
Wines 10.75 / 13
T Kelly 10.25 / 13


Team votes

Adel
Obrien 6.75 / 9
Laird 5.25 / 6
M Crouch 3 / 3

Bris
Zorko 7.5 / 11
Berry 4.5 / 6
Lyons 4 / 4

Carl
Cripps 12.5 / 17
Walsh 6.25 / 8

Coll
Pendles 11.25 /15
Adams 7.75 / 9

Ess
Merrett 10.75 / 14
Shiel 9.25 / 12
Mcgrath 5.75 / 8

Freo
Fyfe 13 / 14
Walters 6.75 / 8
Brayshaw 5.5 / 7

GC
Rowell 6.75 / 9
Miller 6.5 / 9

Geel
Danger 12.25 / 15
Menegola 10 / 12
Guthrie 7.5 / 10

GWS
Whitfield 10.75 / 13
Kelly 6.75 / 9
Greene 5.75 / 7

Haw
Mitchell 10 / 13
Wingard 2.75 / 5

Melb
Gawn 13.25 / 18
Petracca 11.75 / 13

North
Higgins 5.75 / 7
Anderson 5 / 7
Goldy 4.75 / 6

Port
Wines 10.75 / 13
Dixon 8 / 11
Gray 5.75 / 7
Rockliff 4/4

Rich
Cotchin 5 / 7
Bolton 4.25 / 5
Lambert 3.25 / 4

Stk
Marshall 6.75 / 10
Jones 5.5 / 8
Billings 4.25 / 6

Syd
Heeney 4 / 6
Kennedy 4.75 / 4
Papley 2.75 / 3

Dogs
Bont 12 / 16
Macrae 11.5 / 14

WC ( yes the very well talked about WC votes – that chat has been fun but obviously other clubs are more important to me )
Nicnat 11 / 15
Kelly 10.25 / 13
Gaff 5.5 / 6
Kennedy 4.75 / 6
Sheed 2.25 / 4

Good luck to all of the key contributors on here, I hope you all land some big collects.

Yikes! GL but I hope you're wrong.