Even if it is a low count a lot of these results would be incredibly shocking. Assuming you have a tonne of 1-2 vote getters of random no name players, defenders, rookies etc?
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AFL 2020 Brownlow Medal
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Even if it is a low count a lot of these results would be incredibly shocking. Assuming you have a tonne of 1-2 vote getters of random no name players, defenders, rookies etc?
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Fantastic work there. Been looking forward to seeing your count after such discussion (although I didn't even scroll to WCE to see who won yours ;-) ).
Ours aren't hugely dissimilar in a number of winners - just the numbers differing.
Best of luck on the night. Have enjoyed your contributions.
Gazza Guru
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Not necessarily. Many of the top guys I expect to poll to their vote column and not their weighted column. Having both the weighted and actual votes allows me to form a better view of any player.
Gazza Guru
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Thanks TJM. You are a champ and are very generous with sharing all of your info for all to see. I would have happily sent you and some other regulars mine sooner but wanted to use my thoughts to the max first.
Yes, we are very similar on many clubs and obviously have our own view on some of them - like WC
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Good count and thanks for sharing. The one thing I have picked up with people’s counts this year is how similar they are across bigfooty.
There is nothing wrong with that although I think it results in a level of confidence which is somewhat inflated because everyone thinks “there are so much similarities so it must be right” without acknowledging the reason they are all so similar is because opinions have been formed and influenced together. Once again, their is nothing wrong with this and I think a collaborative approach results in more accurate outcomes but it also means some things will be missed.
I’ve also noticed the 5+ leg multis floating around where posters are saying they HAVE to win. Let’s remember that if a multi is $2.00 or greater the outcome SHOULD be that they lose. I’m guilty of it myself and have multis at $2.50-$4.00 where I can’t see how they lose.
Some players are going to bomb on Sunday and others will poll where no-one gives them a chance. We can only hope we have enough right so that enough of our bets lob to turn a profit.
So you want others to just keep handing you value on a silver platter? That's part of the problem, a lot of people come here looking for answers to just follow whatever bets are brought up.
Gazza Guru
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I don’t see how my count is so low ? I expect Neale to land close to his max of 28, Boak 23, Steele 19 etc....it’s Petracca who I have low compared to the rest of Australia.
I said that the weighting’s are my important column but my actual votes column is where I give a 3,2,1 per game like everyone else on here.
For the top guys where there is variance like Boak 17 / 23 that usually tells me that he lands around 20. Could go 23/24 or drop to 17 but certainly I expect him within that range.
My counts are never too high ( aside from the winner I suppose ) as don’t forget that it’s easy to miss votes in an expected game.
Crownlow
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I have gone through and added a minimum and maximum votes based off odds -
Example:
| Votes | Player | Odds | Min | Max |
3 | Tim Kelly | $1.28 | 3 | 3 |
2 | Jeremy McGovern | $6.00 | 0 | 2 |
.5 | Dom Sheed | $8.50 | 0 | 2 |
.5 | Brodie Smith | $8.50 | 0 | 2 |
Here are my team results
| Team | Player | Sum of Votes | Min | Max |
| Adelaide | Rory Laird | 7.5 | 6 | 9 |
| Adelaide | Matt Crouch | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| Team | Player | Sum of Votes | Min | Max |
| Brisbane | Lachie Neale | 31 | 28 | 31 |
| Brisbane | Jarryd lyons | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| Brisbane | Dayne Zorko | 3.5 | 3 | 8 |
| Brisbane | Jarrod Berry | 3.5 | 4 | 8 |
| Team | Player | Sum of Votes | Min | Max |
| Carlton | Patrick Cripps | 13 | 11 | 17 |
| Carlton | Sam Walsh | 8 | 7 | 13 |
| Team | Player | Sum of Votes | Min | Max |
| Collingwood | Scott Pendlebury | 13.5 | 7 | 14 |
| Collingwood | Taylor Adams | 11.5 | 9 | 19 |
| Team | Player | Sum of Votes | Min | Max |
| Essendon | Zach Merrett | 15 | 13 | 17 |
| Essendon | Andrew McGrath | 12 | 7 | 12 |
| Essendon | Dylan Shiel | 8.5 | 9 | 12 |
| Team | Player | Sum of Votes | Min | Max |
| Fremantle | Nat Fyfe | 16 | 13 | 22 |
| Fremantle | David Mundy | 9.5 | 4 | 12 |
| Fremantle | Andrew Brayshaw | 9 | 6 | 10 |
| Team | Player | Sum of Votes | Min | Max |
| Geelong | Sam Menegola | 15.5 | 13 | 18 |
| Geelong | Patrick Dangerfield | 14.5 | 13 | 17 |
| Geelong | Cameron Guthrie | 13 | 11 | 13 |
| Geelong | Tom Hawkins | 10 | 10 | 13 |
| Team | Player | Sum of Votes | Min | Max |
| Gold Coast | Matt Rowell | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Gold Coast | Hugh Greenwood | 5 | 3 | 5 |
| Gold Coast | Touk Miller | 4 | 4 | 11 |
| Team | Player | Sum of Votes | Min | Max |
| GWS | Josh Kelly | 9 | 5 | 13 |
| GWS | Lachie Whitfield | 9 | 8 | 12 |
| GWS | Toby Greene | 9 | 7 | 9 |
| Team | Player | Sum of Votes | Min | Max |
| Hawthorn | Chad Wingard | 7 | 7 | 8 |
| Hawthorn | Tom Mitchell | 7 | 6 | 10 |
| Team | Player | Sum of Votes | Min | Max |
| Melbourne | Christian Petracca | 25 | 19 | 29 |
| Melbourne | Max Gawn | 12.5 | 10 | 16 |
| Melbourne | Clayton Oliver | 11 | 8 | 13 |
| Melbourne | Jack Viney | 9 | 5 | 11 |
| Team | Player | Sum of Votes | Min | Max |
| North Melbourne | Jed Anderson | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| North Melbourne | Jared Polec | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| North Melbourne | Todd Goldstein | 6 | 5 | 11 |
| North Melbourne | Shaun Higgins | 5.5 | 5 | 8 |
| Team | Player | Sum of Votes | Min | Max |
| Port Adelaide | Travis Boak | 21 | 18 | 23 |
| Port Adelaide | Tom Rockliff | 11.5 | 9 | 14 |
| Port Adelaide | Ollie Wines | 11 | 9 | 12 |
| Team | Player | Sum of Votes | Min | Max |
| Richmond | Dustin Martin | 15 | 11 | 20 |
| Richmond | Shai Bolton | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| Richmond | Trent Cotchin | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| Richmond | Kane Lambert | 4.5 | 4 | 7 |
| Team | Player | Sum of Votes | Min | Max |
| ST Kilda | Jack Steele | 20.5 | 16 | 26 |
| ST Kilda | Rowan Marshall | 10.5 | 6 | 12 |
| ST Kilda | Zak Jones | 10.5 | 7 | 14 |
| ST Kilda | Jack Billings | 7 | 3 | 10 |
| Team | Player | Sum of Votes | Min | Max |
| Sydney | Luke Parker | 13.5 | 12 | 17 |
| Sydney | Isaac Heeney | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Sydney | Tom Papley | 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Sydney | Josh P Kennedy | 4 | 3 | 8 |
| Team | Player | Sum of Votes | Min | Max |
| West Coast | Nic Naitanui | 13 | 7 | 18 |
| West Coast | Tim Kelly | 10 | 9 | 13 |
| West Coast | Dom Sheed | 9.5 | 6 | 11 |
| West Coast | Andrew Gaff | 8 | 7 | 14 |
| Team | Player | Sum of Votes | Min | Max |
| Western Bulldogs | Jack Macrae | 15 | 14 | 20 |
| Western Bulldogs | Marcus Bontempelli | 15 | 10 | 16 |
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Sportsbet
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I am using your weighted votes column as kind of an estimate of what a low vote count would look like, just for my own curiosity even though that probably wasn't your intention.
Even with the weighted votes, NN clears 10 votes...think that might be enough for me to start putting some most WCE votes and NN 10+ bets on, which I have entirely avoided so far.
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Thanks after having a think about it
Im happy to change my vote around for the Brisbane v Adelaide game discussion here.
3 J Berry
2 McCluggage
1 Neale
With Brisbanes 33 scoring shots to Adelaide's 11. I do agree that the 6 scoring shots for both Neale and McCluggage makes them stand out. Although I can't make a case for Neale being better than his other 2 teammates. Happy to kick Brad Crouch out after a bit of thinking today
Gazza Guru
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Fair enough. If I have a guys weighted votes beating all others 3,2,1 column then I really love them. That player then clearly has upside - e.g Fyfe, Mitchell etc
I also take into account how many 2+ vote games a player has as I love them getting their votes in that area rather trying to scrap 1s.
Gazza Guru
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By the way, I’m not on all clubs on the team vote or team handicap multis and can’t be hung and courted on all of them.
Ones like Gawn winning Melb and Zorko so high I’m not that keen on.
I must admit tho that I can’t believe they have given Obrien a 3.5 vote start at Adel in the handicap and put him up $6 at TAB. Low count and getting a start like that is massive.
Aside from obvious ones I really like Marshall at Stk as well. Zorko a smokey but I don’t like Lyons at all there. Like many on here, I think Cripps should be $1.35 to win Carl and Fyfe $1.05.
Ones like Gawn winning Melb and Zorko so high I’m not that keen on.
I must admit tho that I can’t believe they have given Obrien a 3.5 vote start at Adel in the handicap and put him up $6 at TAB. Low count and getting a start like that is massive.
Aside from obvious ones I really like Marshall at Stk as well. Zorko a smokey but I don’t like Lyons at all there. Like many on here, I think Cripps should be $1.35 to win Carl and Fyfe $1.05.
shepherdodin
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Thanks so much for this Gazza, have enjoyed your contributions all year. I will add this to my analysis that I'll publish once I stop procrastinating work
Sportsbet
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So far, any new account I've seen that asks for counts or bets has been largely ignored. If some generous posters want to share tips, that's up to them and I hope they would have placed their bets before posting on here.
Like that Danger + Gawn > Hawks market was going down even if it wasn't posted on here. But because it was, a few people were able to get some great value. You are overestimating the popularity of this site and its influence on the odds. Why should a well contributing poster miss out on value like that just because he doesn't check the BYOBs 24/7?
Most of the good bets posted on here are ones that most would take, they just weren't aware of them. In that case, the odds would be crunched soon even if the bet was not posted.
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I can't believe how SB repeatedly stuff up these BYO odds... Seems like the work experience kid has been put in charge half the time
The way I see it is get your bet on first, and then post it on here for others who are quick enough/lucky enough to also be browsing this thread to get on. Chances are if you didn’t get on it before it’s taken down you probably wouldn’t have seen it regardless if it was posted or not.
Gazza Guru
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Spot on. Anyone who posts a bet on here then makes a coffee and tries to get on 15 mins after posting is a fool.
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Dunno if they are stuffing up odds too much. I just dont think a lot win. I'd be interested how many they make up themselves and throw in at good odds to get the punters to take the bait.
Cheers for sharing mate.
Obviously can't see all polling players so curious what you score is for Dan Butler (both weighted and projected), and which rounds you see him polling?
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Neale 25
Boak 20
Trac, Steele, Dusty, Macrae 15
Danger, Bont, Merrett, Fyfe, Gola, Parker, Adams, Wines, Guthrie, Pendles, Cripps, Gawn, Oliver 10
@277
This is getting up
Boak 20
Trac, Steele, Dusty, Macrae 15
Danger, Bont, Merrett, Fyfe, Gola, Parker, Adams, Wines, Guthrie, Pendles, Cripps, Gawn, Oliver 10
@277
This is getting up
Gazza Guru
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Butler 4 / 6
R4 3
R10 3
Chance for a vote R7 and that’s it for him on mine.
Sportsbet
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You've inspired me to pig out on the 10+ votes one more time. Gone a bit safer than your multi, still @66.45 boosted
Neale 20+
Boak/Tracc/Steele/Dusty 15+
Crae/Danger/Merrett/Bont/Fyfe/Gola/Parker/Adams/Wines/Pendles/Guthrie/Cripps/Gawn/Oliver 10+
Pendles winning Collingwood will be huge for me. Glad to see Gazza also has this. I just reckon he gets up. I was betting on him to win outright at one stage albeit I cashed out. And round 15 is the Smokey for 3. Adams polling big in the last round in a loss is the only way I see him beating Pendles.
Pendles to win Collingwood by 2 or more $5.50 (I.e pendles to win by more than 1 vote) I’ll have a small play on that
Pendles to win Collingwood by 2 or more $5.50 (I.e pendles to win by more than 1 vote) I’ll have a small play on that
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