AFL 2020 Brownlow Medal

[jack 231]

Last night hard to split 5 players, didn't even have Degoey in the 3 2 1 until last quarter then he jumps up into the 3

Before that I was thinking -danger treloar Pendles and grundy (who got a heap of free kicks but noticed him a fair bit)

I think danger was big and deserves to poll, i don't think Collingwood will get a clean sweep of votes they only won by a few kicks some in junk time.

Treloar / danger / gegoey 1.5
Pendles / grundy 1

Treloar could get 3 or 0. We see the stats and umpires don't. Umps might pick Pendles over Treloar if that's the case.

I think umpires will do the safe thing and give degoey 3.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

De Goey had a great first quarter too and a great game overall.

Easy 3 votes.

 

[burge13]

I don’t think that Treloar had much influence on the game or stood out much. I note that he had a ton of possessions but I don’t think he will poll. His game was similar to the game he played last week.
It’s a hard game to vote and at 3/4 time many guys were in the mix. Degoeys q4 gives him the 3 but it is tough after that.

Could say that about Treloar each and every week. Gets loads of it but never gets tagged as he isn't remotely damaging

 

[gothedons]

3 - De Goey
2 - Treloar
1 - Danger

Treloar could snatch the 3... Danger was ok without being special massive in my view could get 0-2 votes.

 

[Gift]

I reckon Degoey 3, Treloar 2, Grundy 1.

Come back Brownlow time and check my prediction lol

 

[NonPhixion]

De Goey definetely gets 3 - 5 goals in a low scoring game is huge
Pendles 2
Danger 1

 

[Gazza Guru]

Ess vs Dogs
3 English
2 Bont
1 Macrae

Others in mix are Libba / Hunter / Daniel

 

[onthehill24]

Ess vs Dogs
3 English
2 Bont
1 Macrae

Others in mix are Libba / Hunter / Daniel

Bailey Smith was very good ?

 

[Gazza Guru]

Bailey Smith was very good ?

I thought Smith was good in first half but then didn’t do much in 2nd half so left him out on that basis.

 

[Gazza Guru]

Rich vs North

Higgins ( North ) polls for sure and was best on but the margin a major issue ( I know the history of guys not polling well when team gets smashed ). No Tigers dominated at all and hard to know who polls for them. Keen to hear other thoughts but Higgins will poll 2 here.
I didn’t think any Tigers were great and Dusty a chance to fluke 1.

 

[NonPhixion]

Rich vs North

Higgins ( North ) polls for sure and was best on but the margin a major issue ( I know the history of guys not polling well when team gets smashed ). No Tigers dominated at all and hard to know who polls for them. Keen to hear other thoughts but Higgins will poll 2 here.
I didn’t think any Tigers were great and Dusty a chance to fluke 1.

Higgins gets 3 all day long. Pickett 2, Grimes or Martin 1

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Doesn’t matter what happens, Gawn or Petracca for the 3.

Hawks are awful. Won’t poll.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

That time of year again to chat all things Brownlow. Was a big year in this thread last year with the correct prediction of Fyfe winning after the live round-by-round count so let's see how we go in 2020.

My stable to this point:

Neale - $10
Bontempelli - $13
Josh Dunkley $51
Petracca - $81
Sheed - $101

If I can give anyone 2 tips for the season - do your counts in real time. No point at all going back 8 weeks later to work out votes in round 3 when it is the bye rounds. Do your own counts as the year happens. The second tip is - don't just play the outright winner. There is value to be found in Team Votes as well as particular Round leaders.

Looking forward to plenty of good chat and hopefully getting some back from the bookies.

Cheers
TJM

Good call on Petracca

 

[Gazza Guru]

Doesn’t matter what happens, Gawn or Petracca for the 3.

Hawks are awful. Won’t poll.

Yes, Petracca and Gawn get the 3 and 2 but hard to determine who gets 3. I think that Petracca will get it. Oliver 1.

3 Petracca
2 Gawn
1 Oliver

 

[onthehill24]

Yes, Petracca and Gawn get the 3 and 2 but hard to determine who gets 3. I think that Petracca will get it. Oliver 1.

3 Petracca
2 Gawn
1 Oliver

Pe tracca 3
Oli ver 2
Gone 1

 

[onthehill24]

Higgins gets 3 all day long. Pickett 2, Grimes or Martin 1

No votes for higg in the herald sun ??

 

[NonPhixion]

No votes for higg in the herald sun ??

That’s honestly crazy. I’d rate the probability of him getting 3 at least 80%

 

[Gazza Guru]

That’s honestly crazy. I’d rate the probability of him getting 3 at least 80%

The journos aren’t thinking Brownlow votes but still impossible to know how he wasn’t in their votes as you couldn’t have missed him.
He was the most dominant player on the ground clearly but I’m not sure he will get the 3v in a 54 point loss.
This will be one of those games where it will be very interesting to see where the umps went when votes are read out.

 

[5 Bucks]

Surely Egg gets the 3?

 

[2121]

Pe tracca 3
Oli ver 2
Gone 1

Purely because you spelt Gawn's name like that im going to disregard everything you say.

 

[crow77]

Jack Steele(StK) should be a moral for the 3 votes v Adelaide,Could easily have polled in 5 of 7 games so far,Currently 150's with ScabTab dame quote with sBet well worth a throw at the stumps e/w

 

[Sausage Legs]

Jack Steele(StK) should be a moral for the 3 votes v Adelaide,Could easily have polled in 5 of 7 games so far,Currently 150's with ScabTab dame quote with sBet well worth a throw at the stumps e/w

200s on bet365. Worth a cash out

 

[onthehill24]

Purely because you spelt Gawn's name like that im going to disregard everything you say.

Gawn 1

 

[Sausage Legs]

Hard to see Steele winning but 12 bucks to finish top 10 I can get into on beteasy

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

The journos aren’t thinking Brownlow votes but still impossible to know how he wasn’t in their votes as you couldn’t have missed him.
He was the most dominant player on the ground clearly but I’m not sure he will get the 3v in a 54 point loss.
This will be one of those games where it will be very interesting to see where the umps went when votes are read out.

Disclaimer - I didn't see the Tigers v Roos game.

A few points to make about Higgins and the 3 votes:

• No statistically dominant Tigers, like Higgins who got 36 touches in shorter quarters
• It is hard to get any votes in a 0.29 percentage loss (last year, the lowest percentage with the 3 votes going to a player on the losing team was 0.58 - that was Max Gawn, Melb v Coll. Lachie Whitfield got 2 votes in a 0.50 loss to West Coast, and the lowest single vote was Toby Green (0.34 loss to Hawthorn).
  • But with 13 scoring shots to 22, perhaps the score should have been closer? Three straight kicks would have put this into that 0.50 loss that would put him in the frame for three votes.
• Richmond's style tends to under poll, and last year they didn't have the 3 vote-getter in 2 of their 16 wins. The opposition players who got the 3 were Nat Fyfe (round 8, 0.77 loss) and Lachie Neale (round 23, 0.67 loss).
• North Melbourne got the 3 vote-getter in 2 of their 11 losses. They were Shaun Higgins (round 3, 0.82 loss v Hawthorn) and Jack Ziebell (round 9, 0.94 loss v Sydney).

Definitely worth looking at Higgins when the market comes out.