Opinion 2020 Draft picks 1/9/22/23/40/56/66/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, 4th, Haw 4th)

[Deaneus!]

Crows Draft Hand Tweet



KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates​

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.

 

[Mutineer]

He said ....”value one on one more than endurance. Speed would be nice on the lead but with Worrell, Doedee and McAsey probably not a problem”. He put McAsey in the speed category.... the guy runs on a spot

LOL

Do you ever have anything positive to add?

 

[Jeffcrowe]

The kid is going to be a gun forward for the Eagles in 6 years time, make no doubt about it. Look forward to getting him.

Hahahaha

 

[Danger Zone]

1 adelaide: hollands
2 adelaide: mcdonald
3 nth melbourne: thilthorpe
4 sydney: campbell
5 hawthorn: granger barass
6 gold coast: no idea
7 essendon: hopefully not philips
8 adelaide: philips

You have missed Carlton entirely there. If we get pick 2 as a compensation pick, it pushes pick 8 to pick 9. Also, Sydney won't take Campbell with their own pick at 4.

I would be surprised to see Phillips make it to the GWS pick. Something like this is more likely:

1 Adelaide - Hollands
2 WB - JUH (matched)
3 Adelaide - McDonald/Thilthorpe
4 North Melbourne - McDonald/Phillips
5 Sydney - Thilthorpe/DGB
6 Sydney - Campbell (matched)
7 Hawthorn - DGB/Phillips/Bruhn
8 Gold Coast - DGB/Cox
9 Essendon - Phillips/Bruhn
10 Carlton - Henry/O'Driscoll (Would take Phillips/Bruhn if available)
11 Pt Adelaide - Jones (matched)
12 Adelaide - O'Driscoll/Perkins

 

[Carmo]

Yeah I can't quote either.

Atkins or McGovern are not terrible, but wouldn't say they're genuinely good either.
Lever, yeah fair call but he left.

Rest of them have shown good signs but are all maybes at this point. Although I'm pretty confident about Sholl and Schoenberg.


2012 - Sam Siggins, Rory Atkins
2013 - Matt Crouch, Riley Knight
2014 - Jake Lever, Mitch McGovern, Harrison Wigg, Harry Dear
2015 - Wayne Milera, Tom Doedee
2016 - Jordan Gallucci, Myles Poholke, Elliott Himmelberg, Matthew Signorello, Ben Davis
2017 - Darcy Fogarty, Andrew McPherson
2018 - Chayce Jones, Ned McHenry, Will Hamill, Lachlan Sholl
2019 - Fischer McAsey, Harry Schoenberg, Josh Worrell, Ronin O'Connor, Lachlan Gollant

Binuk joined us in Feb 2018 and IIRC Adelaide said they realised their drafting had fallen behind others who were using the analytics. I assumed he mustve meant the 2017 draft, without knowing off the top of my head who we got what year. It seems like 2017 will be pretty good, Macpherson is def gonna be the goods and Fogarty's looking ok. Perhaps it was the 2016 Draft that they felt like they didn't perform well in. It would make more sense.

 

[Golumless]

Binuk joined us in Feb 2018 and IIRC Adelaide said they realised their drafting had fallen behind others who were using the analytics. I assumed he mustve meant the 2017 draft, without knowing off the top of my head who we got what year. It seems like 2017 will be pretty good, Macpherson is def gonna be the goods and Fogarty's looking ok. Perhaps it was the 2016 Draft that they felt like they didn't perform well in. It would make more sense.

I thought it was driven more from clubs being able to trade picks on draft nights, seeing that came in at roughly the same time? We've certainly excelled in that regard.

 

[Mutineer]

Going to be some disappointed posters if we take all our picks to the draft and use them in order and not do any pick swaps etc. For the record I think we'll use 1 or 2 picks to bring in "mature" age recruits almost for sure.

 

[Mutineer]

I thought it was driven more from clubs being able to trade picks on draft nights, seeing that came in at roughly the same time? We've certainly excelled in that regard.

Bang on.

 

[Carmo]

I thought it was driven more from clubs being able to trade picks on draft nights, seeing that came in at roughly the same time? We've certainly excelled in that regard.

Bit of both.

Keane and Kodituwakku specialise in player analytics and help remove bias in their clubs' list management decisions, from drafting, to trading and even a footballer's worth in contract negotiations.

Scenario analysis, with the purpose of being prepared for all possibilities, is something Kodituwakku does plenty of with the Crows, including for last year's inaugural live trading at the draft.


"I'm there to complement their subjective analysis but also to challenge them on certain biases that occur, and also to challenge them by bringing up players they might not see or like on first look.

"(I'll) say, 'Look, our models are saying these guys are actually performing at a pretty high level, so you need to consider them'."

Kodituwakku is also the Crows' Pro Scout – a position every AFL club has, designed to track players at other teams – as well as being responsible for tracking the club's potential VFL recruits.

If you're not doing it, you're nowhere: The secret analytical revolution

Binuk Kodituwakku works alongside list manager Justin Reid and national recruiting manager Hamish Ogilvie

www.afc.com.au

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I dont believe Pick 4 would be equivalent to 9 and 20 from a Swans perspective.

North would do that trade though.

Really for me it comes down to the permutations of taking 2 players ONLY out of Hollands, Thilthorpe, Phillips and McDonald.

I dont expect a slider from those four to make it to our Pick 8. Frustrating.

I actually think Phillips could

 

[GROTTO]

I actually think Phillips could

With Brown leaving the Roos. Its already a lock that they will take a tall forward as their 1st pick.

In fact you probably can almost work out who the Top 10 should be, once we make up our minds (assuming we get 1 and 2)

We should get a very strong idea who we will land at 8.

Last couple of years, the Top 10 have been locks in terms of their order. No real sliders.

 

[Mutineer]

I actually think Phillips could

You think so?, I see Phillips as just about the "safest" pick in the 1st round. He's going to be a very good player almost for certain IMO, just don't think he's the best fit for us....and one of the bigger flight risks probably. Surely one of the Victorian club won't let him slip too far?

 

[Jeffcrowe]

You think so?, I see Phillips as just about the "safest" pick in the 1st round. He's going to be a very good player almost for certain IMO, just don't think he's the best fit for us....and one of the bigger flight risks probably. Surely one of the Victorian club won't let him slip too far?

Maybe but safe is right , recruiters might look for more upside or make the most of the key position talent is my thought

agree , prob not most suited to us but at pick 8 I’d be happy

 

[Jeffcrowe]

With Brown leaving the Roos. Its already a lock that they will take a tall forward as their 1st pick.

In fact you probably can almost work out who the Top 10 should be, once we make up our minds (assuming we get 1 and 2)

We should get a very strong idea who we will land at 8.

Last couple of years, the Top 10 have been locks in terms of their order. No real sliders.

Unfort I don’t think we should assume we get pick 2

I’d call that a 50/50 proposition maybe at best

 

[Murray2503]

With Brown leaving the Roos. Its already a lock that they will take a tall forward as their 1st pick.

In fact you probably can almost work out who the Top 10 should be, once we make up our minds (assuming we get 1 and 2)

We should get a very strong idea who we will land at 8.

Last couple of years, the Top 10 have been locks in terms of their order. No real sliders.

If we go Hollands and McDonald (if we hold 1, 2) they will likely go Thilthorpe with 3 (as he won't be there at pick 9) and Bruhn, Philips with pick 9. The good thing is that our pick is directly before them at 8. The concern is Daniher is most likely off to Brisbane on a non deserved contract which could land Essendon pick 7. I'm hoping Brisbane only offer him a 3 year deal on modest money which will likely force Essendon to match and work out a trade.

 

[crow2crow]

If we go Hollands and McDonald (if we hold 1, 2) they will likely go Thilthorpe with 3 (as he won't be there at pick 9) and Bruhn or Philips with pick 9.

can someone explain to me why we need a tall forward? if TT is there at pick 9 i would take him but that’s it. looking like we will not have pick 2 after vfl clubs lobbying so pick 1 will need to be hollands because that’s what we actually don’t have.

 

[GROTTO]

can someone explain to me why we need a tall forward? if TT is there at pick 9 i would take him but that’s it. looking like we will not have pick 2 after vfl clubs lobbying so pick 1 will need to be hollands because that’s what we actually don’t have.

I have my concerns on Fog and Berg. I hope I am wrong here. I see them as good 2nd and 3rd KPF not the primary ones taking the best defender and able to beat them on a regular basis.

 

[crow2crow]

I have my concerns on Fog and Berg. I hope I am wrong here. I see them as good 2nd and 3rd KPF not the primary ones taking the best defender and able to beat them on a regular basis.

i agree on fog but it’s not a talent concern it’s a genuine desire from him to play 10kgs lighter. cos that’s what it’s going to take. the berg is very promising and just keep playing him...

 

[GROTTO]

If we go Hollands and McDonald (if we hold 1, 2) they will likely go Thilthorpe with 3 (as he won't be there at pick 9) and Bruhn, Philips with pick 9. The good thing is that our pick is directly before them at 8. The concern is Daniher is most likely off to Brisbane on a non deserved contract which could land Essendon pick 7. I'm hoping Brisbane only offer him a 3 year deal on modest money which will likely force Essendon to match and work out a trade.

For 1st rounder activation, the Dons would need Daniher to get a Brouch like contract.

Lets not forget also there is onther variables involved here. Im just not sure Daniher has done enough to actually activate a 1st rounder through the formula.

Time will tell. Its the AFL. They make up shit all the time. Better probably to assume they get 1st.

 

[Linekers Ears]

You think so?, I see Phillips as just about the "safest" pick in the 1st round. He's going to be a very good player almost for certain IMO, just don't think he's the best fit for us....and one of the bigger flight risks probably. Surely one of the Victorian club won't let him slip too far?

Phillips is a Caulfield Grammar boy. Fascinating how the elite private schools in Vic have become factories for footballers.

Do you think Perkins is a flight risk? Sandy Dragons and Brighton Grammar boy - aren't those characteristics what are typically thought of when building that profile?

 

[Jeffcrowe]

McDonald will be a good player I’m sure, but he looks a bit of a Jenkins type. Seems to have kicked a lot of his goals by finding open space. Nothing wrong with that but he doesn’t scream X factor.

On the other hand the one play I have seen of Thilthorpe doing a one hand pickup below his feet and then snapping on his left shows he is extremely talented. But he hasn’t really performed as well in the SANFL...

Don’t really agree re McDonald . You don’t get too many 18 yo monstering Key defenders physically in good level of senior footy

he’s definitely got that all in him and ahead of him

 

[Betts are off]

You have missed Carlton entirely there. If we get pick 2 as a compensation pick, it pushes pick 8 to pick 9. Also, Sydney won't take Campbell with their own pick at 4.

I would be surprised to see Phillips make it to the GWS pick. Something like this is more likely:

1 Adelaide - Hollands
2 WB - JUH (matched)
3 Adelaide - McDonald/Thilthorpe
4 North Melbourne - McDonald/Phillips
5 Sydney - Thilthorpe/DGB
6 Sydney - Campbell (matched)
7 Hawthorn - DGB/Phillips/Bruhn
8 Gold Coast - DGB/Cox
9 Essendon - Phillips/Bruhn
10 Carlton - Henry/O'Driscoll (Would take Phillips/Bruhn if available)
11 Pt Adelaide - Jones (matched)
12 Adelaide - O'Driscoll/Perkins

If we had pick 1 and 2, and were going to place a bid on JUH, wouldn't it be better strategically to place the bid at pick 1. It makes no difference to who we end up with, but it send the Dogs into a deeper points deficit next season?

We don't know where they end up next year, but a few more teams in the middle with a points deficit could end up pretty handy for us in next years draft. Especially if we somehow manage to jag another 2021 1st out of someone (which IMO should be a major trade week goal this year). Might end up being the difference in getting the player(s) that we want!

Which is why i'd also be looking to send Sydney and Port into as deep a points deficit as we can manage as well. Cause, you know, F**k those guys!

 

[WaynesWorld19]

 

[Peter Doherty]

McDonald will be a good player I’m sure, but he looks a bit of a Jenkins type. Seems to have kicked a lot of his goals by finding open space. Nothing wrong with that but he doesn’t scream X factor.

On the other hand the one play I have seen of Thilthorpe doing a one hand pickup below his feet and then snapping on his left shows he is extremely talented. But he hasn’t really performed as well in the SANFL...

I'm feeling similar regarding McDonald, might be leaning towards Thilthorpe.

 

[Thetrader15]

For 1st rounder activation, the Dons would need Daniher to get a Brouch like contract.

Lets not forget also there is only variables involved here. Im just not sure Daniher has done enough to actually activate a 1st rounder through the formula.

Time will tell. Its the AFL. They make up sh*t all the time. Better probably to assume they get 1st.

#Bookmark

I'm saying that Danhier get a slightly smaller deal than Brad, but gets band 1 while Brad gets band 2. The VFL will come up with some BS to justify it, maybe reference the 'body of work' or the fact that Joe is 2 months younger.

 

[Thetrader15]

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Do we have the actual interview?