Opinion 2020 Draft picks 1/9/22/23/40/56/66/80 (2021 + Melb 2nd, 4th, Haw 4th)

[Deaneus!]

Crows Draft Hand Tweet



KEY DATES

Oct 30 – Nov 6: AFL Free Agency Period
November 4 – 12: AFL Trade Period
November 20: List Lodgment 1
November 27: List Lodgment 2
November 30: AFL Draft Nominations close
w/c December 7: NAB AFL Draft and Rookie Draft (exact date to be confirmed in due course)
Mid-December: Final List Lodgment & TPP estimates​

As God is my witness, finding anything useful on the AFL.com.au site is practically impossible, may whoever designed it burn in hell.

 

[1970crow]

And you believe what Reid said ?? I certainly don't.

I've always thought it was more a List Management agreement pushed by Pyke to go with the best speedy type at that pick. Not Pyke demanding a player unilaterally and Ogilvie succumbing. List Management just wouldn't work that way.

 

[dude316]

Time to ramp up the arguments then

No it isn’t

 

[1970crow]

This is exactly why we will come bottom next year ( or 17th at best)

young guys aren’t going to suddenly carry the side consistently from week to week , they need games into them to get consistent

I’m shocked Re how many people think we will just carry on our late season form and forge up ladder

I haven't read that and I doubt very much that we'll forge up the ladder, but we won't be as bad as our start. None of our older players will be worse for the extra year on the clock. Brad loss is a negative but Hately will cover a fair bit of that as will a full year of Laird who they finally moved. Talia getting injured is a big risk factor with Harto gone. If that doesn't happen, I'd be expecting us to win a handful of games at home. Noting I've not seen the fixture. Fitness remains a major concern, full size quarters and no improvement in that area will be a huge problem. Confident Roos will finish clear bottom with us and Swans fighting for the next 2 spots. Essendon might join that fight.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

I’m shocked Re how many people think we will just carry on our late season form and forge up ladder

I wonder whether the club thinks this internally?

 

[Crow till I die]

I wonder whether the club thinks this internally?

I think that the growth the players will have this year will be because they have better line coaches and Nicks game plan has now had a season to take shape. I am looking for us to be competitive in all games and to get some wins on the board but will think we will be a bottom 4 club as kids will be inconsistent. I am far happier that we have some AFL quality line coaches on board now

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I wonder whether the club thinks this internally?

I think they’d be looking for individuals improving and getting games into young players and any significant increase on 3 wins a good result

 

[spenze]

I wonder whether the club thinks this internally?

No doubt a few in the front office have booked plane tickets to Melbourne in late September 2021

 

[Jeffcrowe]

I haven't read that and I doubt very much that we'll forge up the ladder, but we won't be as bad as our start. None of our older players will be worse for the extra year on the clock. Brad loss is a negative but Hately will cover a fair bit of that as will a full year of Laird who they finally moved. Talia getting injured is a big risk factor with Harto gone. If that doesn't happen, I'd be expecting us to win a handful of games at home. Noting I've not seen the fixture. Fitness remains a major concern, full size quarters and no improvement in that area will be a huge problem. Confident Roos will finish clear bottom with us and Swans fighting for the next 2 spots. Essendon might join that fight.

Agree ... individual improvement in young players , getting games into them and any improvement on 3 wins and being better in our losses is prob the expectation


Bottom 2 for mine , Syd prob a year ahead with young talent they have

 

[Hodgy]

The Poos paid nearly 50% more in points as a premium to get Freo's 6, which was a measure of how desperate Port were.

port 11, 23, 30, 49 = 3060
for freo 6, 2019r3 (#45?) = 2098

I set Freo's 2019r3 at around pick 45 as what they might have thought it could be at the time of the trade.

Even higher, I imagine, if you factor in the trades the Poo did to get some of the picks they traded to Freo.

How is us potentially doing 9, 23 and say our future Melb 2nd for 4 or 5 different than Port doing 11, 23 and 30 for 6?
that was a stronger draft were we couldnt manage to climb up. Sounds like a fair trade to me, especially if it gets us Hollands and McDonald.

 

[Crow till I die]

How is us potentially doing 9, 23 and say our future Melb 2nd for 4 or 5 different than Port doing 11, 23 and 30 for 6?
that was a stronger draft were we couldnt manage to climb up. Sounds like a fair trade to me, especially if it gets us Hollands and McDonald.

I agree if it meant we could get Hollands at 1 and Thilthorpe at 4 or 5 and then grab a mid at 22 + Hately + Borlace + maybe Newchurch as a rookie..THAT would be a super super draft for us

 

[mattymac]

Are we there yet?

 

[Hodgy]

Mediocrity and poor culture is reflected by the Clubs inability to retain talent. Till the go home factor is eradicated, it should always be considered as a factor in decisions the club makes.

Well we certainly won’t change go home factors if we only pick SA kids. I don’t think we have worse flight problems than anyone else anyway, it’s just myth propagated by negative thinking.
Nearly everyone we lost was because of money, and we get at least as many players back. Betts, Gibbs, Sauce, Hately, Stengle, Thommo, Brown and others always get conveniently forgotten when bemoaning our retention issues.

bottom line is that anyone that puts reasons to not do something above reason to do something will always fail.

 

[Atypical7]

I think Freo's pick 12 would be most likely in that range as it currently stands.
Adelaide at 9
GWS at 10, 13, 15 - have plenty of early picks - wouldn't want more 2nd round picks
NM at 11 - maybe a chance if they trade pick 2 for a couple of Essendon's 1st round picks
Freo at 12 - most possible - they only have 12, 32 & 55
Coll at 14 - they would only consider it if they think a bid for McInnes is coming before 14

I agree Freo is best suited & good call on McInnes as he may bolt due to having the X-Factor about him meaning the pies may need to get active.

The biggest question for the draft is what Essendon will do, to me they have a good hand and need a Thilthope type of player yet they did just miss out on Dunkley.

 

[Jirkago75]

Top 6 picks.
1. JUH WB
2. McDonald ADL
3. Hollands NM
4. DGB SYD
5. Thilthorpe HAW
6. Phillips ADL

Yuck, I hope we don’t go near Phillips, I want a speedy excellent ball user. We have MCrouch and he will be with us for the next 6 years. We need outside players more then inside ones

 

[Clayton Lamb]

bottom line is that anyone that puts reasons to not do something above reason to do something will always fail.

Yes, and we finished on the bottom of the ladder. Is that not failure?

 

[Murray2503]

Yuck, I hope we don’t go near Phillips, I want a speedy excellent ball user. We have MCrouch and he will be with us for the next 6 years. We need outside players more then inside ones

Phillips is quick. You seen him play? He's also plays just as much on the outside as the inside. His pace is what allows him damage on the outside and is nothing like MCrouch. If I had to make a comparison it would be Danger.

WILL PHILLIPS HIGHLIGHTS | 2020 AFL Draft Prospect

 

[Mego Red]

I've always thought it was more a List Management agreement pushed by Pyke to go with the best speedy type at that pick. Not Pyke demanding a player unilaterally and Ogilvie succumbing. List Management just wouldn't work that way.

That's almost exactly what Pyke said. He didn' know the actual players.

 

[Hodgy]

Yes, and we finished on the bottom of the ladder. Is that not failure?

Not when you’re trying to rebuild, no.
We have battled against the system for 30 years, refusing to bottom out and use the equalization policies that the AFL have, and it has been very admirable. The only other club to be like this is Geelong, and they have been a credit to their supporters in how they have managed it. However our club clearly finally made the decision last year to hit the draft for 3 years to try and build a really strong foundation for the next 15 years and I can’t blame them for that, but they certainly weren’t trying to finish high last year.

im sure they weren’t expecting to finish last, but that was COVID pure and simple. We clearly hadn’t had a proper pre season with our new coach and didn’t know what we were doing early. As we mastered his game plan you could see some real potential in how we were transferring the ball. we wouldn’t have been last if it was a 22 round season.

 

[GrommoT]

How is us potentially doing 9, 23 and say our future Melb 2nd for 4 or 5 different than Port doing 11, 23 and 30 for 6?
that was a stronger draft were we couldnt manage to climb up. Sounds like a fair trade to me, especially if it gets us Hollands and McDonald.

Points wise, this is fairly similar - our 9(1469) 23(815) Melb 2021'r2 is 25(756) = 3040 for 4(2034) is us paying about 50% premium.

I'm factoring Lemons might finish around 12th on the table to give pick 25, in an expected to be stronger draft.

I had a look at pick only trades between clubs in recent seasons and from memory, there seemed to be a trend where clubs pay a premium of around 10% to 15% for picks in the late r1 range, with the premium increasing as picks traded for get better.

I think how keen clubs are on a trade also affects greatly the size of the premium required.

With Poos being desperate for Freo's 2018 #6 and (I'm assuming) Freo weren't particularly keen to trade out #6, that 50% premium sets an interesting precedent.

Now OTOH, if because of list state and needing to bring in extra draft players Freo were keen to trade #6 out for two later r1 picks say, another club could have probably paid a much lower premium (maybe 20% to 30%?) to get #6.


As for pick #4 this year, if Hawks still think their list is in good shape or one of the top 4 rated players are just what they're looking for, we might have to pay even more than 50% to convince them to give it to us.

Or Hawks might see pick #4 as an opportunity to get several r1 picks this year if they recognise their need to rebuild somewhat.

We would have competitors in GWS and Bumbers possibly in the market for pick 4.

 

[Betts are off]

Are there any whispers around the Hawks, I don't know why but I kind of feel like they might have a big play in them come draft day.

 

[DJ75]

Yuck, I hope we don’t go near Phillips, I want a speedy excellent ball user. We have MCrouch and he will be with us for the next 6 years. We need outside players more then inside ones

Add Hately in that who is more inside than outside.

I agree, Phillips in terms of playing style is not a real need.

From what I have read though, Phillips in terms of leadership and hard nosed attitude probably is what we need.

 

[dplggr47]

It did happen in the past. And the players were fined for Draft tampering. And not coincidently, they weren't Victorian.

Who were these players? Were they publicly named?

 

[Hodgy]

Points wise, this is fairly similar - our 9(1469) 23(815) Melb 2021'r2 is 25(756) = 3040 for 4(2034) is us paying about 50% premium.

I'm factoring Lemons might finish around 12th on the table to give pick 25, in an expected to be stronger draft.

I had a look at pick only trades between clubs in recent seasons and from memory, there seemed to be a trend where clubs pay a premium of around 10% to 15% for picks in the late r1 range, with the premium increasing as picks traded for get better.

I think how keen clubs are on a trade also affects greatly the size of the premium required.

With Poos being desperate for Freo's 2018 #6 and (I'm assuming) Freo weren't particularly keen to trade out #6, that 50% premium sets an interesting precedent.

Now OTOH, if because of list state and needing to bring in extra draft players Freo were keen to trade #6 out for two later r1 picks say, another club could have probably paid a much lower premium (maybe 20% to 30%?) to get #6.


As for pick #4 this year, if Hawks still think their list is in good shape or one of the top 4 rated players are just what they're looking for, we might have to pay even more than 50% to convince them to give it to us.

Or Hawks might see pick #4 as an opportunity to get several r1 picks this year if they recognise their need to rebuild somewhat.

We would have competitors in GWS and Bumbers possibly in the market for pick 4.

We definitely would have competitors. Essendon probably wouldn’t give up 2 top 8 picks to move up to 4 but certainly GWS and Collingwood are definite chances. Collingwood could easily use their 2021 1st as well as 14 and 16 while GWS have way more picks than they need this year. I’ll be very surprised if there are not some big moves brewing.

 

[Murray2503]

We definitely would have competitors. Essendon probably wouldn’t give up 2 top 8 picks to move up to 4 but certainly GWS and Collingwood are definite chances. Collingwood could easily use their 2021 1st as well as 14 and 16 while GWS have way more picks than they need this year. I’ll be very surprised if there are not some big moves brewing.

Hawks won't give up pick 4. They haven't used a first round for some time. Can take it to the bank that they will use pick 4. GC the only option for an upgrade.

 

[dplggr47]

News Ltd Subscriber poll as at 23/11 for those interested

View attachment 1016833

Wouldn't trust a poll from the general public fans. I've spoken to many Crows fans who have no idea who the potential top 3 are and just want a SA kid and some who were angry at the club and thought we were planning to use our ND pick 1 on Jackson Hateley.