Strapping Young Lad
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- Apr 19, 2006
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A good reference point for picks.
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AFLW 2024 - Round 8 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
We do not rate him that low, it is just that we have 3 3rd rounders, if we are only taking 3 picks, if bid comes before 24 probably 30-70 chance, trade pick 24 out, get 20% discount, use one of 3rd rounders on Downie, use another 3rd rounder to pick a speculative which 50% chance is a bust and perhaps waste the other 3rd rounder. I think Downer is someone we need, he is said to be damaging 55m kick, perhaps replacing smith, link breaking speed. The other alternative is to trade pick 4, 24, at least one of our 3rd rounders for 2 or 3 picks well before Downie pick, so pick up 2 or 3 good players plus Downie. That is where GWS come to mind and they have heaps of picks, more than they can use.If we rate him as lowly as a third rounder, not sure we will bother with a complex maneuver.
Someone else was saying if the player we want at pick 4 is not available we would trade for Picks 10,13 & 20 instead of 10,13,15. If that were the case we would probably want their pick 29 give them 45. If pick up 4 players in top 30 plus Downie and if at least 4 of them turned into good players then have done very well. It is polar opposite of pick 4 best available, trade 2nd rounder out, Downie and perhaps a speculative. I read somewhere that out of top 30 players some 8-9 players still without contract for last year, as we know even top 10 can fail or only ever become B grade rather than A grade players.This is why you would consider picks 10, 13 and 15 for 4, if nailed makes us better right away
i think if the players we want arent there at 4, then we would trade 4 and 24 for 10, 13, 20 to get ahead of the Downie bid.... if we can pick up 3 players instead of 1 before Downie, then thats the play and im assuming if they do make the trade, maybe if Downie is bid on before 20 we might be willing to let him go? idk? that would be a decision from the recruiting team based on what talent is possibly available at our next pick and if we rate them higher for our needs?, we could also trade the picks in 40's for a pick in the 30's (a team wanting points to match a bid like Fremantle - Western or Adelaide - Edwards?) or for next years 2nd/3rd rd pick? idk, just spit balling.Someone else was saying if the player we want at pick 4 is not available we would trade for Picks 10,13 & 20 instead of 10,13,15. If that were the case we would probably want their pick 29 give them 45. If pick up 4 players in top 30 plus Downie and if at least 4 of them turned into good players then have done very well. It is polar opposite of pick 4 best available, trade 2nd rounder out, Downie and perhaps a speculative. I read somewhere that out of top 30 players some 8-9 players still without contract for last year, as we know even top 10 can fail or only ever become B grade rather than A grade players.
I cannot imagine anyone making bid on Downie before pick 30, if so they are just being difficult. I think last year it was almost embarrassing how Finn did not get bid on much earlier. It also depends how many picks we are using. I am sure club will try to get as high picks as possible from GWS, Picks 10,13&15 would be better. Otherwise if Picks 10,13,20 & 29. It will use pick 29 on Downie. If it gets picks 10,13&15, then Downie bid on pick 45/46, trade out 46 for next yr. If only using 4 picks and getting, 10,13,20&29 not sure whether GWS would want our 3 3rd rounders. I know Collingwood wants to move out its first rounder next year and wants points, but doubt how it will help them, unless approach 3 clubs who needs points this year, give them those 3rd rounders this year for next year's 3rd rounders, then package next year's 3 x 3rd rounders for their first as example or throw something additional, especially if it is waste for us not to use them.i think if the players we want arent there at 4, then we would trade 4 and 24 for 10, 13, 20 to get ahead of the Downie bid.... if we can pick up 3 players instead of 1 before Downie, then thats the play and im assuming if they do make the trade, maybe if Downie is bid on before 20 we might be willing to let him go? idk? that would be a decision from the recruiting team based on what talent is possibly available at our next pick and if we rate them higher for our needs?, we could also trade the picks in 40's for a pick in the 30's (a team wanting points to match a bid like Fremantle - Western or Adelaide - Edwards?) or for next years 2nd/3rd rd pick? idk, just spit balling.
or we could keep 4 and 24 hoping 24 is before the Downie bid and maybe upgrade the picks in the 40's for a top 30 pick, the goal should be get as many top 25 picks as possible OR nail pick 4 and hope Downie doesnt get bid before our 2nd pick in the late 20's after bids ect
Is that because swans will have pick 4 after a bid on JUH is matched? With Allir gone, they will grab DGB. We will get Hollands, Phillips (most likely) or Tilthorpe (hopefully not)This is looking more and more likely
Would mean they're after Thilthorpe, right?Adelaide happy to move pick 1 on this year.
Pick 1 & 20ish for pick 4 and next years first rounder.
Firm no for me.
No mega draft pick swap deal with GWS at this stage.
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Firm no.Adelaide happy to move pick 1 on this year.
Pick 1 & 20ish for pick 4 and next years first rounder.
Firm no for me.
No mega draft pick swap deal with GWS at this stage.
On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
Adelaide happy to move pick 1 on this year.
Pick 1 & 20ish for pick 4 and next years first rounder.
Firm no for me.
No mega draft pick swap deal with GWS at this stage.
On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
We cannot trade our future first. It's negligence.
Adelaide happy to move pick 1 on this year.
Pick 1 & 20ish for pick 4 and next years first rounder.
Firm no for me.
No mega draft pick swap deal with GWS at this stage.
On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
Adelaide happy to move pick 1 on this year.
Pick 1 & 20ish for pick 4 and next years first rounder.
Firm no for me.
No mega draft pick swap deal with GWS at this stage.
On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
It would have to be 1 and 9 for 4 and future first. Otherwise it just doesn’t add up to close to value.Adelaide happy to move pick 1 on this year.
Pick 1 & 20ish for pick 4 and next years first rounder.
Firm no for me.
No mega draft pick swap deal with GWS at this stage.
On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
That I would do and I’d throw in 24 as it’s unlikely to be much value to us but useful to them. I’d be nervous about not entering 2021 with a first rounder though as I’m not expecting much from next year. And take McDonald at pick 1 after bidding on JUH.It would have to be 1 and 9 for 4 and future first. Otherwise it just doesn’t add up to close to value.
I think that given the current state of our list (which appears to be at a crossroads, however not as bad as some believe) and the state of this year's draft that it actually makes sense to trade out early in exchange for multiple selections and back our recruitment team in fully.
Here's my ideal scenario, whether or not it eventuates is a different story entirely.
Greater Western Sydney Trade
Pick 10 (GWS), Pick 13 (GCS), Pick 15 (WCE), Pick 20 (GEE) in exchange for Pick 4 (HAW)
Refer to a recent previous example of the Lachie Ash acquisition which involved GWS handing over all of:
Pick 9 (GWS 2020), Pick 12 (ESS 2019) and Pick 18 (GWS 2019) for Pick 4 (ADE 2019)
Now given the compromised state and uncertainty around this year's pool combined with the fact that the selections they'd be offering are of lower value in comparison to the above, but they'd still be receiving the exact same selection in return, then it does make sense to ensure that a hefty premium is paid (the extra selection) if we're to in fact let our highest selection in 15 years go.
If we were able to get a deal struck then hopefully we're able to end up with something along the lines of:
AFL Draft 2020 Selections
Pick 10 (GWS) - Oliver Henry - (FWD)
Pick 13 (GCS) - Nikolas Cox - (UTL)
Pick 15 (WCE) - Zach Reid - (DEF)
Pick 20 (GEE) - Jack Ginnivan - (FWD)
Pick 24 (FRE) - Eddie Ford (FWD)
Pick 45 (HAW) and Pick 46 (HAW) - Connor Downie - (MID)
Pick 49 (ESS) - Henry Walsh (RUC)
This would not only drastically improve our age demographic (which to be fair has already improved significantly over this off season anyway) but it would also address multiple areas of our list that need improvement (allowing us to recruit midfielder's next off season) and also give us a core group of youngsters to come up through the ranks together.
One could only dream that with the pieces we already have in place that we've now laid the foundations for our next dynasty.
Not long until now we find out which direction the club will be heading in anyway
If GWS were willing to hand over all four picks, it would definitely be worth a look. I like the idea, but I doubt they would offer all four.
Live trading may be the way to go. Depending who is available at our first pick, we could have offers coming in. For example, Hollands or Thilthorpe might be available and the Crows would be super keen. We could ask for 9, 22, 23 and a future 2nd or 3rd. They might be keen enough to say yes.
Then when pick 9 comes around, depending who is available, we could trade 9 and 24 to Collingwood for 14 and 16. We get two firsts, they get a pick before Reef McInnes plus points to match the bid when it comes. Win for them. We might even ask for an upgrade the Crows future pick to Collingwood's future first.
The first picks in the second round can often be traded, so 22 and 23 could be valuable. Trade one of them for a future pick. We end up with 2 firsts, an early second and Downie. Plus a stronger hand next season.
Lots of possibilities with live trading.
I think that given the current state of our list (which appears to be at a crossroads, however not as bad as some believe) and the state of this year's draft that it actually makes sense to trade out early in exchange for multiple selections and back our recruitment team in fully.
Here's my ideal scenario, whether or not it eventuates is a different story entirely.
Greater Western Sydney Trade
Pick 10 (GWS), Pick 13 (GCS), Pick 15 (WCE), Pick 20 (GEE) in exchange for Pick 4 (HAW)
Refer to a recent previous example of the Lachie Ash acquisition which involved GWS handing over all of:
Pick 9 (GWS 2020), Pick 12 (ESS 2019) and Pick 18 (GWS 2019) for Pick 4 (ADE 2019)
Now given the compromised state and uncertainty around this year's pool combined with the fact that the selections they'd be offering are of lower value in comparison to the above, but they'd still be receiving the exact same selection in return, then it does make sense to ensure that a hefty premium is paid (the extra selection) if we're to in fact let our highest selection in 15 years go.
If we were able to get a deal struck then hopefully we're able to end up with something along the lines of:
AFL Draft 2020 Selections
Pick 10 (GWS) - Oliver Henry - (FWD)
Pick 13 (GCS) - Nikolas Cox - (UTL)
Pick 15 (WCE) - Zach Reid - (DEF)
Pick 20 (GEE) - Jack Ginnivan - (FWD)
Pick 24 (FRE) - Eddie Ford (FWD)
Pick 45 (HAW) and Pick 46 (HAW) - Connor Downie - (MID)
Pick 49 (ESS) - Henry Walsh (RUC)
This would not only drastically improve our age demographic (which to be fair has already improved significantly over this off season anyway) but it would also address multiple areas of our list that need improvement (allowing us to recruit midfielder's next off season) and also give us a core group of youngsters to come up through the ranks together.
One could only dream that with the pieces we already have in place that we've now laid the foundations for our next dynasty.
Not long until now we find out which direction the club will be heading in anyway
Hypothetical
Essendon's 6 + 8
For Hawthorn's 4 + 24
Plus a First-round pick swap in 2021.
This would have us moving back 2 but up 16 so we would need to add a sweetener. The sweetener is a hedge position in the 2021 draft i.e. swapping first-round positions. If Essendon think they will be good and we will be s*&t, they might go for something like this?
Plus, if we managed to finish above Essendon because they become really s*&t, we win get their 1st rounder. Not sure they would go for it but for me it seems a pretty fair deal which has the fun "gamble" aspect to it. You know, win big look like a genius, or lose big and look like a muppet.