2020 Planning thread - a.k.a pre-season misplaced confidence and collective insanity

[Cotchy9]

A youngster being 1-3 seasons in and having that epic bump in points is something I've tried to peep every year I've played fantasy, and this year I don't know if I have a player in mind I would definitively trust to do it. Like the other lads said, S. Walsh is a decent nod. BJK mentioning J. Worpel could also be possible. Based on similar ages and averages I've also (briefly) considered H. McCluggage, J. Hopper, one of the young(ish) GC mids (only if someone fits me with a straitjacket), etc. More I'm forgetting I'm sure.. I don't really have a solid idea so I'm probably going to steer clear of these bad boys in case they bite me on the backside.
EDIT: T. Kelly (as sloane said above) is someone I've wanted but haven't fit in yet, definitely a chance to ball out.

Surprised there isn’t more love for McCluggage to be honest

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Tossing up whether Cerra is worth it. I like the look of him there which means only 1 rook on field in Def, however the extra coin getting what would have been D7 up to him rules out C Jones types up forward meaning Brander or Budarick would be fielded.

Cerra earmarked for a pure mid role definitely has me interested at that price, however I’m really split on whether taking 200k odd out of the forward line for him is wise.

Cerra is one I'm big on now. All the news around him is very positive. Happy to lock that one in and make the forward line work around it.

Marsh series will hopefully offer some more information.

But I'm certainly more confident in spending ~ $430k on Cerra in the back-line than I am spending $350k on Jones in the forward line. Jones has actually slipped out of my side for Townsend atm as a result. Townsend may yet become Budarick at F6.

 

[JDWCE]

I hate to say this due to risking a "POD" option I've been keeping in the options bag..... but lets be honest, it'll be plain as day anyway if he has a good Marsh.

..............Tim Kelly gents.

Lets look at the list:
- Played 22 games in both of his two years in the system. TICK;
- His 87avg improved to 97avg in his 2nd year. Is there upside in that? TICK;
- Geelongs ruckman are/were aweful. Service will be infinitely better at the Eagles TICK;
- His 2019 scores also featured some time being rotated forward and a few quiet sub 60's. His role at the Eagles is without question and his only position on the ground other than the engine room is the bench to have a break. TICK;
- Priced at $719k and not alot more than an injury prone unknown in Taylor Adams. TICK;
- POD. TICK;
- Gaff/Shuey and the Eagles in general love link up play. The back and forth handballs will be flowing. TICK;
- Solid Preseason. TICK.

Lets not forget he dominated at the Cats despite having external pressure from the media/geelong/eagles for a contract and also internal stress from his family living away from their support base.

Personally I think he's unleashed this year and he's EASILY got 10ppg upside in him.

I'm very bullish on Kelly this year too. Pretty much outlined by those reasons above. He will be full time mid and there's no doubt about that. Biggest worry is he's almost certainly the no 1 tag target and I'm not entirely sure how he handles that. **** me though he looks ripped and is a big unit. Been training very well. Just looks like he belongs. Mildly risky to start with over Adams though only because Adams has the runs on the board. Adams durability the obvious concern

 

[Zevon]

Who’s everyone’s tip to be the Taranto of this year? Take the jump from the 85-95 average up to 105-110

Worpel or Fiorini for mine. Plenty forget that Fiorini was humming along at 111 for the first half of last year until his fortunes and the Suns fortunes took a joint nosedive. Looks to have a lot more support in the GC midfield this time round and he’s not really a tag risk in my opinion because he’s not hugely damaging.

T.Kelly I can see doing it as well but the trouble there (as JDWCE noted) is that as soon as he starts dominating he’ll likely be the first target for opposition taggers, even ahead of Shuey. I seem to remember a couple of tag-affected 60s last year when he basically looked completely disinterested the moment someone was sent to him at the opening bounce.

 

[RowellAnderson12]

I reckon the tag is overated. Matt de boer probably the only elite one left.

Dyl Clarke, Touk Miller, Levi Greenwood, Bailey Banfield, Mark Hutchings, Jack Steele am i missing anyone???

 

[JDWCE]

Worpel or Fiorini for mine. Plenty forget that Fiorini was humming along at 111 for the first half of last year until his fortunes and the Suns fortunes took a joint nosedive. Looks to have a lot more support in the GC midfield this time round and he’s not really a tag risk in my opinion because he’s not hugely damaging.

T.Kelly I can see doing it as well but the trouble there (as JDWCE noted) is that as soon as he starts dominating he’ll likely be the first target for opposition taggers, even ahead of Shuey. I seem to remember a couple of tag-affected 60s last year when he basically looked completely disinterested the moment someone was sent to him at the opening bounce.

Problem with Fiorini is the fact Dew hates him. Gun otherwise but Dew doesn't play him consistently in the guts where he belongs. Had a number of roles last year and can see that happening again this year, especially with the inclusion of Greenwood & Rowell.

I like Worp though. Absolutely stolen in that draft by the Hawks

 

[Zevon]

Problem with Fiorini is the fact Dew hates him. Gun otherwise but Dew doesn't play him consistently in the guts where he belongs. Had a number of roles last year and can see that happening again this year, especially with the inclusion of Greenwood & Rowell

Yeah that’s fair. Let’s not forget Dew is from the John Longmire school of coaching so he won’t always be a huge help for fantasy scoring.

 

[JDWCE]

I reckon the tag is overated. Matt de boer probably the only elite one left.

Dyl Clarke, Touk Miller, Levi Greenwood, Bailey Banfield, Mark Hutchings, Jack Steele am i missing anyone???

Those bolded blokes should struggle to get games this year. By all reports Ben Jacobs is basically dead. Steel apparently being unleashed this year - 'apparently'

Probably not any real concerning ones outside of DB

 

[JDWCE]

Yeah that’s fair. Let’s not forget Dew is from the John Longmire school of coaching so he won’t always be a huge help for fantasy scoring.

So what you're also saying is stay away from Freo players

 

[Zevon]

I reckon the tag is overated. Matt de boer probably the only elite one left.

Dyl Clarke, Touk Miller, Levi Greenwood, Bailey Banfield, Mark Hutchings, Jack Steele am i missing anyone???

Agree with you to a point, but it has had a resurgence in recent seasons and I can see that continuing. In any case, even when no hard tag is applied we usually still see significant defensive pressure placed on the most damaging midfielder from any given team. It’s the reason someone like Bontempelli or Neale can rack up massive scores in the pre season roaming free but then end up averaging around 105 during the season proper even when there’s no specific hard tag applied to them.

 

[Shadow89]

No Cahill named, so can cross him off too. Bailey Williams named alongside Vardy, Hickey, Brander, Nic Nat, Kennedy and Waterman, shows just how stacked they are for talls and how unlikely it is he gets named either. Cross those two off and keep an on the blood sucking Mosquito named on field

 

[VSTone]

No Cahill named, so can cross him off too. Bailey Williams named alongside Vardy, Hickey, Brander, Nic Nat, Kennedy and Waterman, shows just how stacked they are for talls and how unlikely it is he gets named either. Cross those two off and keep an on the blood sucking Mosquito named on field

Townsend named too!

 

[Shadow89]

Townsend named too!

*fingers crossed!!!*

 

[kozi]

Cerra is one I'm big on now. All the news around him is very positive. Happy to lock that one in and make the forward line work around it.

Marsh series will hopefully offer some more information.

But I'm certainly more confident in spending ~ $430k on Cerra in the back-line than I am spending $350k on Jones in the forward line. Jones has actually slipped out of my side for Townsend atm as a result. Townsend may yet become Budarick at F6.

The news around him certainly sounds promising but I’m always wary about the standard club release news drills this time of year. Every player in the league is training the house down, primed for a more positive role and there’s 18 premiers.

 

[Aussie_boy]

Who’s everyone’s tip to be the Taranto of this year? Take the jump from the 85-95 average up to 105-110

He almost definitely won't reach TT's numbers but I feel like Oliver Florent could move up rapidly to perhaps a 85-90 average. Bit too expensive to start with though.

 

[samFFC]

Hi all,
Just to let you know that in order to get things sorted, and get everyone in the league, I will start distributing people into leagues in one week.

Late stragglers can join after that into the remaining leagues, and any overflow leagues.

If there is anyone that you think you would want to join please tag in the sign-up thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2020-league-sign-up.1226901/page-6

Thanks,
Sam

 

[Neale4brownlow]

The news around him certainly sounds promising but I’m always wary about the standard club release news drills this time of year. Every player in the league is training the house down, primed for a more positive role and there’s 18 premiers.

Agree but theres a bit more to chew on than just than articles.
Role change is real.
Intraclub official reports and comments from freo fans are all positive.
Lots of reasons to keep an eye on him for Marsh.

 

[JADED]

Got a bit of a dilemma on my hands here, got a bit over $400k to spend on F4. Been tossing up for weeks between T J Lynch and S Hill. Any thoughts?

Both look likely to generate cash.

Someone pls talk me out of Hill, it's the freo tragic in me that sparks my interest.

Get on Sydney's future G.O.A.T player Blakey.
$366k.
On the up, and cheap. Then you can say the pre season games "ruined your P.O.D" if you get in before Sydney finish up.

 

[staffa002]

Hey guys would appreciate some help. I dont want to pay 900k plus for any player so avoiding grundy. I remember paying that for macrae, tichell and whitfield and each time they went down sunstantially after that . Im thinking a pairing of obrien who is locked in for me and lycett. Lycett as a lone ruckman is a 95+ player i reckon. He killed it last year as the lone ruckman. I know ryder is gone and just wondering if anyone knows Port will be doing lone ruckman thing.

 

[VSTone]

Mitch Hibberd not out of R1 calculations it seems...

Smashed by 15 surgeries, can Dons recover in time?

Essendon is approaching round one with 15 players having experienced surgeries since their last competitive game

www.afl.com.au

 

[Thetrader15]

Hi all,
Just to let you know that in order to get things sorted, and get everyone in the league, I will start distributing people into leagues in one week.

Late stragglers can join after that into the remaining leagues, and any overflow leagues.

If there is anyone that you think you would want to join please tag in the sign-up thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2020-league-sign-up.1226901/page-6

Thanks,
Sam

Appreciate your efforts with setting these leagues up samFFC

 

[Thetrader15]

Hey guys would appreciate some help. I dont want to pay 900k plus for any player so avoiding grundy. I remember paying that for macrae, tichell and whitfield and each time they went down sunstantially after that . Im thinking a pairing of obrien who is locked in for me and lycett. Lycett as a lone ruckman is a 95+ player i reckon. He killed it last year as the lone ruckman. I know ryder is gone and just wondering if anyone knows Port will be doing lone ruckman thing.

I was looking at him, but am steering clear ATM. Port are a risk of playing Ladhams at least in some games, and check out Lycett's first 6 weeks, they are pretty tough.

However, if you are one to take a risk (and seeing as you aren't going Grundy, you clearly are), then rock on with Lycett!

 

[DaTBird187]

My side is becoming so compartmentalised. I'm now running GnR on my Defence and midfield, set and forget in the rucks and midprice madness in the forward line.

 

[JDWCE]

Hey guys would appreciate some help. I dont want to pay 900k plus for any player so avoiding grundy. I remember paying that for macrae, tichell and whitfield and each time they went down sunstantially after that . Im thinking a pairing of obrien who is locked in for me and lycett. Lycett as a lone ruckman is a 95+ player i reckon. He killed it last year as the lone ruckman. I know ryder is gone and just wondering if anyone knows Port will be doing lone ruckman thing.

I was looking at him, but am steering clear ATM. Port are a risk of playing Ladhams at least in some games, and check out Lycett's first 6 weeks, they are pretty tough.
View attachment 829837
However, if you are one to take a risk (and seeing as you aren't going Grundy, you clearly are), then rock on with Lycett!

Could big stef martin be an option? Started the year very slowly due to no pre season. Is on the wrong side of 30 (33 this year I think) but averaged 94 after the byes last year. Not the worst left field option

Also this is his last 6 years of footy - games played ; total average

2014​	12​	112.2​
2015​	20​	114.0​
2016​	20​	89.0​
2017​	22​	99.8​
2018​	22​	101.3​
2019​	22​	84.8​

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Got a bit of a dilemma on my hands here, got a bit over $400k to spend on F4. Been tossing up for weeks between T J Lynch and S Hill. Any thoughts?

Both look likely to generate cash.

Someone pls talk me out of Hill, it's the freo tragic in me that sparks my interest.

Both good value options. Lynch at the G 11 of the first 13 outings should improve on his average.

If Hill makes it to Round 1 I can't give you a reason not to pick him.

He'll break down at some point, but if he can put together 10-12games at the start he'll be a great buy with plenty of upside.