Event 2021 AFL Brownlow Medal - Jack Steele finishes equal 5th

[Grav]

Having a look at Steele’s possessions, I gave my rough votes (without looking at other player stats) & reckon he could poll anywhere between 32 - 42 votes, a big chance to surprise in the Brownlow.

Round-by-round Brownlow Medal guide: When favourites, dark horses will make their move

Round-by-round Brownlow guide: When favourites, dark horses will make their move

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[bergholt]

Having a look at Steele’s possessions, I gave my rough votes (without looking at other player stats) & reckon he could poll anywhere between 32 - 42 votes, a big chance to surprise in the Brownlow.

Round-by-round Brownlow Medal guide: When favourites, dark horses will make their move

Round-by-round Brownlow guide: When favourites, dark horses will make their move

www.foxsports.com.au

Most ever is Dusty's 36 votes so I think 42 might be a touch optimistic!

Wouldn't be surprised if the winner got 32+ this year so Jack will need the equivalent of 10+ BOGs. At a glance I can see 6 or even maybe 8 but 10 is a big ask.

He'll probably get 15-18 votes post the bye, so he needs to have absolute minimum of 13 by mid-season. Needs to get full votes in the wins over West Coast and Gold Coast, and then ideally needs votes in some of the losses to Essendon, Melbourne, Sydney and Adelaide. If he gets votes in some of GWS, Richmond, Port, Hawthorn, Geelong, Bulldogs, North then he's a serious chance.

I think unlikely but will be fun to watch.

 

[Munga]

I have Steele maxing at 26 votes. I'll say as low as 21. So down the middle, let's say he'll poll 23 votes
Polling in 13 matches. Rounds 11-18 should be a good run. I think the team have let him down with some of those narrow losses, probably going to cost him up to 7 votes

 

[Bill Mohr]

I have Steele maxing at 26 votes. I'll say as low as 21. So down the middle, let's say he'll poll 23 votes
Polling in 13 matches. Rounds 11-18 should be a good run. I think the team have let him down with some of those narrow losses, probably going to cost him up to 7 votes

General consensus is that to get top votes from umpires you have to win the game. Play very well and get beat you probably get 1 or 2 votes. That will hurt JS in the early part of the season.

 

[Munga]

General consensus is that to get top votes from umpires you have to win the game. Play very well and get beat you probably get 1 or 2 votes. That will hurt JS in the early part of the season.

Yeah I only have him polling in two of the first 10 rounds

 

[Ephemeral Hope]

Yeah I only have him polling in two of the first 10 rounds

Anyone who played in those first 10 weeks should have to wash his car and mow his lawn every day until he wins a brownlow

 

[pebblesofsand]

Brownlow Medal prediction by Quang Nguyen an American expert in applied statistics who also solves problems in sports analytics.

He has never seen a game of AFL and these are his predictions after a couple of hours of just analysing data.

As for Quang Nguyen, after some more refining, his model predicted Clayton Oliver

13

Clayton Oliver

Age

27

Ht

189cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.8

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

18.4

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

6.3

5star

CL

6.3

5star

D

25.1

5star

K

11.1

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

5.6

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

19.2

5star

K

4.6

2star

HB

14.6

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

4.4

5star

CL

3.8

5star

would win with 29.61 votes, followed by Jack Macrae (26.5), Christian Petracca

5

Christian Petracca

Age

29

Ht

187cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

19.4

5star

K

9.5

4star

HB

9.8

5star

M

3.5

4star

T

3.0

5star

CL

2.5

4star

D

24.4

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

14.0

5star

M

3.5

3star

T

3.6

4star

CL

3.4

4star

D

19.0

5star

K

7.8

3star

HB

11.2

5star

M

3.0

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.0

4star

(25.07), Marcus Bontempelli

4

Marcus Bontempelli

Age

29

Ht

194cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.5

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

10.3

5star

M

3.6

4star

T

4.8

5star

CL

4.4

5star

D

18.4

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

8.8

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

4.1

5star

CL

4.0

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

6.2

4star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

1.8

4star

(24.12) and Ollie Wines (22.28).

Can you pick the Brownlow Medal winner without knowing the first thing about Aussie rules?

Every AFL supporter has an opinion when it comes to who will claim the Brownlow Medal, but maybe there is a way to predict who walks away with "Charlie" when you don't even watch the game, writes David Mark.

www.abc.net.au

Here's his Top 10 prediction - Jack Steele

9

Jack Steele

Age

29

Ht

187cm

Wt

90kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

20.9

5star

K

8.7

3star

HB

12.2

5star

M

3.7

4star

T

6.8

5star

CL

3.6

5star

D

21.3

5star

K

10.0

4star

HB

11.3

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

5.8

5star

CL

4.6

5star

D

16.8

4star

K

5.0

2star

HB

11.8

5star

M

2.6

3star

T

6.4

5star

CL

3.6

5star

comes in 6th with 21 votes

 

[Grav]

Having a look at Steele’s possessions, I gave my rough votes (without looking at other player stats) & reckon he could poll anywhere between 32 - 42 votes, a big chance to surprise in the Brownlow.

Round-by-round Brownlow Medal guide: When favourites, dark horses will make their move

Round-by-round Brownlow guide: When favourites, dark horses will make their move

www.foxsports.com.au

Sober today albeit with a slight head-ache & revised my expectations, can still see Steele knocking on the door of 31 votes, which is going to put him right in the running.

 

[gringo2011]

Brownlow Medal prediction by Quang Nguyen an American expert in applied statistics who also solves problems in sports analytics.

He has never seen a game of AFL and these are his predictions after a couple of hours of just analysing data.

As for Quang Nguyen, after some more refining, his model predicted Clayton Oliver would win with 29.61 votes, followed by Jack Macrae (26.5), Christian Petracca (25.07), Marcus Bontempelli (24.12) and Ollie Wines (22.28).

Can you pick the Brownlow Medal winner without knowing the first thing about Aussie rules?

Every AFL supporter has an opinion when it comes to who will claim the Brownlow Medal, but maybe there is a way to predict who walks away with "Charlie" when you don't even watch the game, writes David Mark.

www.abc.net.au

Here's his Top 10 prediction - Jack Steele comes in 6th with 21 votes

View attachment 1239620

That's pretty ****ing good. As a vibe on the season that's probably how they should have been rated. I know Macrae doesn't get much love but he's got the most possession of any player in history in a single season and isn't as wasteful as guys like Mitchell.

 

[gringo2011]

Sober today albeit with a slight head-ache & revised my expectations, can still see Steele knocking on the door of 31 votes, which is going to put him right in the running.

I looked through the round by round list and our losses are going to hurt him. He had some of his best games in losses where he would have polled 3 votes otherwise.

 

[Grav]

I looked through the round by round list and our losses are going to hurt him. He had some of his best games in losses where he would have polled 3 votes otherwise.

Still on some of those losses, gave him a one.

 

[Grav]

That's pretty ******* good. As a vibe on the season that's probably how they should have been rated. I know Macrae doesn't get much love but he's got the most possession of any player in history in a single season and isn't as wasteful as guys like Mitchell.

Oliver, Petracca & even Gawn taking votes off each other at Melbourne, Bontempelli & Macrae at the Dogs, Ollie Wines & maybe Boak at Port, Steele & ??????
Definitely have my rose coloured glasses on & they are staying on until after the count.

 

[gringo2011]

Oliver, Petracca & even Gawn taking votes off each other at Melbourne, Bontempelli & Macrae at the Dogs, Ollie Wines & maybe Boak at Port, Steele & ??????
Definitely have my rose coloured glasses on & they are staying on until after the count.

The thing going for Steele is definitely the lack of team mates taking votes off him. It's just a shame so many of his dominant Ames were in losses. He almost would have walked it in if we hadn't been so shit early on.

 

[pebblesofsand]

Oliver, Petracca & even Gawn taking votes off each other at Melbourne, Bontempelli & Macrae at the Dogs, Ollie Wines & maybe Boak at Port, Steele & ??????
Definitely have my rose coloured glasses on & they are staying on until after the count.

Yeah its gonna be interesting to see how it plays out with sides having two genuine contenders for the Brownlow.

When the bloke in the ABC article did his first run, he came out with these results based purely on on-field data.



He then crunched the numbers trying to factor in how having players for the same team competing for votes might affect the outcomes and came up with his final predictions.

Clayton Oliver would win with 29.61 votes, followed by Jack Macrae (26.5), Christian Petracca (25.07), Marcus Bontempelli (24.12) and Ollie Wines (22.28).

In both cases Steele ended up around 20 votes.

 

[XhazzafootyX]

Steele wins the Brownlow tonight

 

[King_Steele]

Steele wins the Brownlow tonight

Gut tells me Oliver

Praying Steele gets up

 

[Remboy]

If DMac doesn’t get up the whole things rigged. I wonder if somebody will have as the back drop during the night?

 

[Stan_Darsh72]

Brownlow Medal prediction by Quang Nguyen an American expert in applied statistics who also solves problems in sports analytics.

He has never seen a game of AFL and these are his predictions after a couple of hours of just analysing data.

As for Quang Nguyen, after some more refining, his model predicted Clayton Oliver would win with 29.61 votes, followed by Jack Macrae (26.5), Christian Petracca (25.07), Marcus Bontempelli (24.12) and Ollie Wines (22.28).

Can you pick the Brownlow Medal winner without knowing the first thing about Aussie rules?

Every AFL supporter has an opinion when it comes to who will claim the Brownlow Medal, but maybe there is a way to predict who walks away with "Charlie" when you don't even watch the game, writes David Mark.

www.abc.net.au

Here's his Top 10 prediction - Jack Steele comes in 6th with 21 votes

View attachment 1239620

ABC sports has put out a lot of great reads this year on footy (and NRL)

Actually using stats right compared to whatever David King does.

 

[Pardon me]

stats schmats - J Steele wins it.

 

[George]

Looking forward to this, Steele a genuine chance and it's been probably since Harvs that we've been able to say that. Bit of fun following him through the count as the rounds progress.

 

[plugger66]

I’ve got bont and Oliver running top 2 b. Wines and Steele next.

 

[Plugger35]

Like all of us Saints supporters I'm hoping Steele gets up to take Charlie home tonight but I think our lack of wins will hurt him compared to the other favourites like Wines, Oliver, Petracca, Bontempelli and Macrae.

Also he isn't in Perth like those other favourites so even if he gets the most votes the AFL will probably rig the result to make sure one of the others win.

They would rather have a Brownlow winner there to get the medal than Steele getting the medal on Zoom, not to mention the umpires hate St Kilda.

He's up against it Steele, if you were talking the Melbourne Cup, he's an honest stayer but he's carrying a lot of weight, needs a lot to go right to salute.

 

[Enclosed_Animal]

Steele wins the Brownlow tonight

Will come home like an absolute steamtrain. Big question is how big of a lead does he give them leaders at the halfway point??
For him to win, I see three things having to happen:

Gawn has to poll really well in the first 6-8 rounds
Boak has to poll really well all night
Steele has to pinch a couple of unexpected 1 or 2 votes pre bye in losses

Bont should stop dead with about 4-6 rounds to go. As long as Wines or Oliver haven't completely run away with it at the bye (or even Petrecca as the dark horse), he is a shout. But he has to manufacture some numbers from somewhere pre the Sydney game.

Everyone remember, he is a very very good thing to poll 3 in round 23 (and he will be coming from a mile behind). So if he wins, it will be on the very very last vote read on the night ...

 

[George]

Like all of us Saints supporters I'm hoping Steele gets up to take Charlie home tonight but I think our lack of wins will hurt him compared to the other favourites like Wines, Oliver, Petracca, Bontempelli and Macrae.

Also he isn't in Perth like those other favourites so even if he gets the most votes the AFL will probably rig the result to make sure one of the others win.

They would rather have a Brownlow winner there to get the medal than Steele getting the medal on Zoom, not to mention the umpires hate St Kilda.

He's up against it Steele, if you were talking the Melbourne Cup, he's an honest stayer but he's carrying a lot of weight, needs a lot to go right to salute.

Wow

 

[Plugger35]

Don't write off Sinclair the dark horse, he plays an eye catching game with his run off half back and wears the number of a dual Brownlow winner.

In all seriousness he should get the 2nd most Brownlow votes for us to back up his 2nd in our B&F, would be disappointed if he doesn't.