AFL 2021 AFL Round 13

[Robo87]

Just checked the scores now..
Yay Armatey!! More son!

Edit: It could have been a little bit more-

2.5u amartey 2g+ @4.25 tab
1U amartey 3g+ @ 15 tab
0.7u amartey 4g+ @51 tab
0.4u amartey 5g+ @101 sb
0.2u amartey 6g+ @150 sb

 

[FrankGrimes]

Yup

Far out if they don’t score a goal your screwed

 

[mookieb]

Don't underestimate the value of a week's advantage rest over the team that had played the prior week.

Stats don't agree with your comment. Teams are generally average off the bye.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

This would have to be one of the biggest upsets of the season so far, wouldn't it?

Hawks were paying $5 on sb, probably closer to $6 on betfair, I didn't check.

 

[FrankGrimes]

SYD HAW o157.5

$1.87 Bet365

Mate quarter time this was home and hosed, unbelievable

 

[Prochard123]

Hawks vs Swans

1. Parker over 26.5 possessions/over 97.5 DT (80% weighed towards the disposal line)
2. Mills over 26.5 possessions/over 108.5 DT (80% weighed towards the disposal line)
3. Lloyd over 24.5 possessions
4. Mitchell under 33.5 possessions
5. Worpel under 22.5 possessions

All at the lines except for Lloyd

Of course all of this clears except Mitchell with 1:30 left because Rowbottom is a terrible lazy spud who cant even tag properly.

Mitchell had the largest weighting out of the group too.

Titch on 34 touches . Titch getting that extra touch costed the bets tied to Worpel and Mills as well...

 

[demon_fanatic]

Disgusting 2nd half for overs 90 first half n bloody 50 second half,thanks hawks for showing up finally and playing defense was Sydney's fault mainly though, no energy and just basically went around the boundary the whole early 3rd n early 4th qtr like the hawks were. So what do people think about 152.5 dees pies in perfect weather, I think pies will play aggressive and loose with good ball movement so they could get opened up the other way too if Melbourne are clinical

 

[langdon19]

Disgusting 2nd half for overs 90 first half n bloody 50 second half,thanks hawks for showing up finally and playing defense was Sydney's fault mainly though, no energy and just basically went around the boundary the whole early 3rd n early 4th qtr like the hawks were. So what do people think about 152.5 dees pies in perfect weather, I think pies will play aggressive and loose with good ball movement so they could get opened up the other way too if Melbourne are clinical

It was 14.6 at half time, only accuracy had it going over. Score corrected its self over the four quarters.

 

[Kiddbrown]

The most one sided display of umpiring so far this year.
razor ray needs to get his ego in check

 

[demon_fanatic]

It was 14.6 at half time, only accuracy had it going over. Score corrected its self over the four quarters.

Kidding? 50 pt half 2 wasn't a correction, maybe about 70,was a total slow play slugfest

 

[NYRB]

I don't watch much of Hawthorn but my thinking is one of the midfielders can bob up for a goal? Looking at O'Meara, Tom Mitchell and Shiels?


Tips for the

Pointsbet Spread using assumed $10 stakes again:

PointsBet Stat Multiplier (Goals x Kicks x Handballs):

Lance Franklin = NO PLAY
Isaac Heeney= UNDER 140
Parker = NO PLAY
Papley= UNDER 77
Josh Kennedy= UNDER 64
Dawson= UNDER 47
Hayward = UNDER 46
Florent= NO PLAY
Wicks= OVER 62
Rowbottom = OVER 32

Tom Mitchell = OVER 70 (line has shifted from 68 to 70)
O'Meara= OVER 54 (line has shifted from 58 to 54)
Dylan Moore= OVER 52
Worpel= NO PLAY
Liam Shiels= OVER 40

Got a weird feeling tonight at least one of : Mitchell, O'Meara or Shiels will goal.

Net Results from last night for $10 stakes:

Lance Franklin = NO PLAY
Isaac Heeney= UNDER 140 = +$1,190
Parker = NO PLAY
Papley= UNDER 77= +$770
Josh Kennedy= UNDER 64= +$640
Dawson= UNDER 47= +$470
Hayward = UNDER 46= +$420
Florent= NO PLAY
Wicks= OVER 62= +$20
Rowbottom = OVER 32= -$320

Tom Mitchell = OVER 70 (line has shifted from 68 to 70)= +$2,180
O'Meara= OVER 54 (line has shifted from 58 to 54)= -$540
Dylan Moore= OVER 52= +$1,110
Worpel= NO PLAY
Liam Shiels= OVER 40= +$580


Net Result= +$6,520

After struggling early in these predictions on spreads at 0-4, im on a 3 consecutive profit run and have clawed it back to 3-4.

Also a big F U to Rowbottom for kicking a behind. Would have had a nice profit but cant complain with a win.

 

[NYRB]

POINTS SPREAD (Total Match Points Scored)
PLAYER	UNDER	OVER
FRANKLIN	19​	22​
PAPLEY	11​	14​
HEENEY	11​	14​
WILL HAYWARD	8​	11​
LOGAN MCDONALD	7​	10​
LUKE BREUST	8​	11​
KOSCHITZKE	6​	9​

i'll have a stab on the points as well - with an UNDER or OVER prediction only:

Franklin- UNDER 19
Papley- OVER 14
Heeney- OVER 14
Will Hayward - OVER 11
Logan McDonald- OVER 10
Luke Breust- UNDER 8
Koschitzke- OVER 9

Didnt bet on this but if I had a stake of $1 on these

Franklin- UNDER 19 = +$13
Papley- OVER 14 = -$14
Heeney- OVER 14= -$8
Will Hayward - OVER 11= -$8
Logan McDonald- OVER 10= -$10
Luke Breust- UNDER 8= -$4
Koschitzke- OVER 9= +$4

Net Loss= -$27

It can be very easily to get sucked into betting on OVERS on spreads for player points .......may not think 12-18 points is much but if one team does really badly it can affect your bets massively. Lesson learnt from my side.

 

[langdon19]

Kidding? 50 pt half 2 wasn't a correction, maybe about 70,was a total slow play slugfest

No not kidding. If they scored 10.10 in the first half, then it’s heading under. Fifteen scoring shots is a slow down in the second half but they just kicked 7.8 which is much more normal.

 

[NYRB]

Looking ahead to Freo v Gold Coast and the Stat Multiplier (Kicks x Goals x Handballs):

These are the PointsBet spreads at the time of typing:

STAT MULTIPLIER RECORD IN 2021		Occurrences		Occurrences		Occurrences
DAVID MUNDY	UNDER 120	6​	120-140		OVER 140	6​
MICHAEL WALTERS	UNDER 112	12​	112-132		OVER 132
ANDREW BRAYSHAW	UNDER 64	8​	64-76		OVER 76	3​
RORY LOBB	UNDER 41	6​	41-49		OVER 49	2​
LACHLAN SCHULTZ	UNDER 29	7​	29-35		OVER 35	4​
MATT ROWELL	UNDER 128	1​	128-150		OVER 150
TOUK MILLER	UNDER 79	7​	79-93		OVER 93	3​
LACHLAN WELLER	UNDER 56	5​	56-66	2​	OVER 66	3​
DAVID SWALLOW	UNDER 50	8​	50-60		OVER 60	3​
IZAK RANKINE	UNDER 49	7​	49-59		OVER 59	4​
HUGH GREENWOOD	UNDER 48	6​	48-56		OVER 56	5​
NOAH ANDERSON	UNDER 43	11​	43-51		OVER 51
ALEX SEXTON	UNDER 30	7​	30-36	1​	OVER 36	2​
BEN KING	UNDER 28	6​	28-34	1​	OVER 34	4​

will do a bit of research into and post my bets about 30 minutes before kick off again.

 

[md20]

Happy Josh Battle and Paddy Ryder day.

Adding Rankine to the mix. Hasnt lived up to expectations this season (They were set pretty high). But kicked 4 last game. Hopefully got himself into some form coming up against a depleted backline

I. Rankine Most Goals Gr1
H. Greenwood AGS
M. Crowden AGS
$88 boosted (SB)

I. Rankine 4+
H. Greenwood AGS
M. Crowden AGS
$128 boosted (SB)

On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[demon_fanatic]

No not kidding. If they scored 10.10 in the first half, then it’s heading under. Fifteen scoring shots is a slow down in the second half but they just kicked 7.8 which is much more normal.

If you think 50 pts in this higher scoring season is reverting to normal you've lost it

 

[toenail11]

Today’s the day degenerates
Today’s the day Josh Battle makes us rich

 

[Russian Demon]

Today’s the day degenerates
Today’s the day Josh Battle makes us rich

If this comes off it will make the news and someone at Sportsbet is getting fired.

 

[gillon]

Can anyone explain the PB spread betting to a noob?

 

[langdon19]

If you think 50 pts in this higher scoring season is reverting to normal you've lost it

7 goals to 8 behinds is more normal

 

[Ohh Ok]

5u - Tucker, Acres, Weller, Markov 15+ disposals - $2.30 - SB
Tucker 6/6, Acres 10/12, Weller 10/11 Markov 11/11
Good match up for these guys too.

1.5u - Rowell under 25.5 disposals - $1.67 - PointsBet
1u - Rowell under 24.5 disposals - $1.95 - Ladbrokes
Will be on minutes restrictions first game back from a serious injury. Hasn’t played a whole lot of footy in the last twelve months so can’t expect big things from him.

 

[5 Bucks]

7 goals to 8 behinds is more normal

Maybe for both teams combined, for a quarter, not an entire half!

I don't think full time scores of 50 each has ever been normal.

 

[5 Bucks]

Can anyone explain the PB spread betting to a noob?

First of all, don't do it.

Total match points example.

156-162 is the spread. PB expect the match to fall within this range.

If you think the match is going to be 140 points you take the under 156. You bet $10 for example.

140 is 16 points under 156.

You get 16 times your stake of ten dollars = $160



Alternatively the match is a shootout, total match points of 200.
Which is 44 points over the under 156 you've taken.
You just put on $10 now you've lost $440

 

[5 Bucks]

The player stat multiplier is a dangerous one. It relies heavily on goals scored

Rowell 128-150

Let's say you take under 128 and put $10 on it.

If Rowell has 15 kicks, 15 handballs he scores 0.1 you're laughing. He scores 0.
$1280

If he has 15 kicks, 15 handballs and he scores 1.0 you're crying.
He scores 225
128-225 = -97
-$970

Bets are usually capped, in this case its at 80 either way so you can win/lose up up $800 for a $10 bet

 

[jikost]

General rule with spread betting - Think very carefully about putting anything other than 50 cents on. If it goes wrong it can go very wrong.