AFL 2021 AFL Round 13

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4u - Brayshaw most disposals (group c) - $1.65- PointsBet
Low odds but pretty soft match up. Up against two blokes returning from injury (Rowell and Bowes) a guy who will have his mid minutes limited due to Rowell returning (Swallow) and a key defender (Ryan).
 

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To counter that, PointsBet have an option where you can play the Kicks x Handballs market alone.

The spread for that is between
160-188 for Matt Rowell

If you think he has 14 kicks and 12 handballs, no matter what amount of goals he gets the bet is still in play.

14 x 12= 168.

Now if you bet on UNDER 160 or OVER 188, the punter would lose. That middle margin is where I assume PointsBet or Spread companies make that overlay or profit.
PointsBet is OK if you target markets with low floor and high ceilings and take it on overs, eg taking a match total over where its almost guaranteed to be high scoring and even if they kick like rubbish they may only fall 10-20 pts under but you feel the upside is 30-50 points over the expected total.
 
No one has mentioned the huge total drop on stk ade, think it started 170 now 157.5,how bad will the dew and humidity be? These teams play pretty direct so could be upside to goin overs if they can handle condition
 
Think the odds at Ladbrokes on stkilda mid and small players up forward for most goals is nuts, dew won't suit the bigger guys if balls on ground, having a stab at most match goals overall butler to find form $14,Wood $31, Battle $41 (hoping king is out) Lonie $101, Billings $17,is market valid if the rumour of King out happens? Just less odds?
 
No one has mentioned the huge total drop on stk ade, think it started 170 now 157.5,how bad will the dew and humidity be? These teams play pretty direct so could be upside to goin overs if they can handle condition
With Benji’s cloud predictor there should be little dew. This ground produces low scores with some of them very low.
Edit-posted at the same time Benji, thought you said clouds=little dew?
 

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AFL 2021 AFL Round 13

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