AFL 2021 AFL Round 8

[timster]

Still works did it last night missed 1 leg last night

 

[Kiddbrown]

Splash at zach sproule 3/4/5 @9, 31, 101. Comes in for hogan, big tall campaigner who will camp forward and can only hope he'll get on the end of a few

I like this.
kicked 2 in his only game which was the loss to freo. Should get more opportunities today.
tailed

can also sgm 5 and 6 up to $376

 

[jikost]

That would’ve been 20+. I would’ve smashed 15+ at that price

No he was definitely $2.75 for 15+ because I had him in a multi with that spud Luke Dahlhaus to kick a goal. 20+ was like $9 but he couldn't get near it in the second half.

 

[jikost]

I like this train, and the 'Lloyd returns' train, and the 'Hill is due to kick straight' train.

I'm heading to platform 8 and the 'Bruhn pre-season form' train. On for 2 and 3+.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Been down that route so many times, the plonker just doesn’t know how to get his hands on it!

Conditions won’t be ideal tonight. Tough game vs Port, bit of rain expected here throughout the day, bit of dew etc

There's Dew around. The Fog is starting to make more sense as a bet. It's meant to be.

 

[NYRB]

When you have two teams that have a net differential difference of negative in disposals, such as the Kangaroos and Collingwood, you aren't sure about the pace at which they will play the game. Both teams are ranked bottom 2 and it feels like both will just be happy to avoid last place. This is probably the one game this week where you can't be 100% sure what the points (unders/overs) score will be. Collingwood have been playing, at all cost, that slow tempo style for most of this season- which is kind of ugly to watch as a neutral. Understand Bucks is under pressure and the bottom line should be winning at all cost.

Sounds like Pies will throw De Goey into the midfield again. Attended a team high 16 CBA's last week... had a stinker and may have another stinker but he has hit 30+ a couple of times when playing mid.

De Goey 20+ @ $3.50 sb
De Goey 25+ @ $13
De Goey 30+ @ $56

Watching his game closely last week, he really struggled fitness wise. I'll be interested to see how he goes but will stay away and clear from this one.


Anyway I have bets on riding on Walters 25+ Disposals from last nights 1st part of my multi and I woke up this morning to still see Walters paying $21 for 25+. And have decided to chuck on another dart, on:

Roos to win by 40+ Points
Michael Walters to get 25+ Disposals

Odds of $441.00

Everyone , come join me and bato on the Michael Walters express. Anything above double digits for Son Son to get 25+ , still a great bet IMO.

 

[Benjo_]

When you have two teams that have a net differential difference of negative in disposals, such as the Kangaroos and Collingwood, you aren't sure about the pace at which they will play the game. Both teams are ranked bottom 2 and it feels like both will just be happy to avoid last place. This is probably the one game this week where you can't be 100% sure what the points (unders/overs) score will be. Collingwood have been playing, at all cost, that slow tempo style for most of this season- which is kind of ugly to watch as a neutral. Understand Bucks is under pressure and the bottom line should be winning at all cost.



Watching his game closely last week, he really struggled fitness wise. I'll be interested to see how he goes but will stay away and clear from this one.


Anyway I have bets on riding on Walters 25+ Disposals from last nights 1st part of my multi and I woke up this morning to still see Walters paying $21 for 25+. And have decided to chuck on another dart, on:

Roos to win by 40+ Points
Michael Walters to get 25+ Disposals

Odds of $441.00

Everyone , come join me and bato on the Michael Walters express. Anything above double digits for Son Son to get 25+ , still a great bet IMO.

What is the logic behind Walters 25 mate? He's averaging 15 this season and has been phased out of the Dockers mid

 

[Benjo_]

Don't mind the look of Connor Idun 70+ Fantasy paying $4.25 and Archie Perkins 70+ Fantasy paying $4.60 on Lads. Idun cleared 70 in his last two games and has gone 3/6 on this line this season. Perkins averaging 73 Fantasy in his last three games. Both look overs imo

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Odds of $441.00

Everyone , come join me and bato on the Michael Walters express. Anything above double digits for Son Son to get 25+ , still a great bet IMO.

I have no idea why we're betting on Walters to get 25+ when he hasn't done that all season.

But you seem to be on a roll lately and I like the cut of your jib.

So here's my revised version of your bet:



Don't see the Pies getting steamrolled, they seem designed and set up to lose by smallish margins.

Still consider this a YOLO style bet so here's to you, NYRB.

 

[Atavistic]

Placing some SGMs at SB with the bonus bet back offer:

Parish 25+, McGrath 20+, Greene 3+ goals@3.10

Touk 30+, Anderson 30+, Ellis 25+@10.75

Cunnington 30+, Simpkin 30+, Powell 25+@19.75.

 

[GROTTO]

Good job with the player markets, out of curiosity, how much are you betting per unit? It's hard to gauge your results as the pointsbet special is a max $25 bet. So if your usual bet is $100, the result of the pointsbet specials would be +0.25u

Robo87 is a reliable punter on here.

I had quick check of his punts, he collected well with Bolts and Farts, which is impressive as the Tigers barely scored. Those bets alone netted him almost 20u with just 1u on each then he had the gravy with other bets.

 

[chrisdon16]

Robo87 is reliable on here, I had a quick look at his bets and his claims,makes sense he collected well. H

He staked 1u or more on the other bets and collected well with Bolts and Farts scoring. Irony being the Tigers didnt score last night too.

For sure, wasn't insinuating anything. My point was it's not really worth it adding bookie specials with $25 max bet to the overall results. Going to start tailing some of the player markets on here, never really looked into them.

 

[NYRB]

What is the logic behind Walters 25 mate? He's averaging 15 this season and has been phased out of the Dockers mid

As one of the posters mentioned above, it more based on Walters playing good games against Brisbane in the past.

 

[burge13]

Im more baffled people here can still get on PB specials. You're way more successful than I on afl punting and they banned me long ago. Not sure how you blokes avoid it tbh

 

[GROTTO]

For sure, wasn't insinuating anything. My point was it's not really worth it adding bookie specials with $25 max bet to the overall results. Going to start tailing some of the player markets on here, never really looked into them.

All good. I know you werent as you dont roll that way ever on here. I was just pointing out why he collected so much from barely any bets.

Those $25max bets are like a bit of gravy bets.

 

[GROTTO]

Im more baffled people here can still get on PB specials. You're way more successful than I on afl punting and they banned me long ago. Not sure how you blokes avoid it tbh

I know its funny, I was banned from Lads years ago and I get upset when I hear awesome odds posted here all the time that I cant touch.

Im sure the end will come with PB specials too. Especially if youre being selective with them and hitting all those stupid ones.

 

[SM]

All good. I know you werent as you dont roll that way ever on here. I was just pointing out why he collected so much from barely any bets.

Those $25max bets are like a bit of gravy bets.

I think the point was more if $25 is 1u then is that consistent across all his bets or is a unit on other bets suggested $50/100.

 

[iluvparis]

I think the point was more if $25 is 1u then is that consistent across all his bets or is a unit on other bets suggested $50/100.

It's irrelevant because the promo is capped regardless of how big his units are so it tells you nothing about the confidence level.

 

[squeaky1000]

Don't mind the look of Connor Idun 70+ Fantasy paying $4.25 and Archie Perkins 70+ Fantasy paying $4.60 on Lads. Idun cleared 70 in his last two games and has gone 3/6 on this line this season. Perkins averaging 73 Fantasy in his last three games. Both look overs imo

Great finds, Idun been crunched in but still getting $4.60 for Perkins. Cleared 2 out of his last 3 with 79 last weekend, definite overs

 

[burge13]

And its not really anyone elses business what his unit size is. Given his constant success, im surprised the stingy bastards let him on for more than $0.40 haha

 

[GROTTO]

It's irrelevant because the promo is capped regardless of how big his units are so it tells you nothing about the confidence level.

Exactly. Trying to make an irrelevant point.

 

[SM]

It's irrelevant because the promo is capped regardless of how big his units are so it tells you nothing about the confidence level.

It sort of does if 1u on another bet is $100 and 1u on the promo is $25, so I understand why the question was asked. As others have said, people's balance is their business though so not a huge deal.

 

[iluvparis]

It sort of does if 1u on another bet is $100 and 1u on the promo is $25, so I understand why the question was asked. As others have said, people's balance is their business though so not a huge deal.

No as usual you have missed the point entirely. It's irrelevant.

 

[SM]

No as usual you have missed the point entirely. It's irrelevant.

Seemed to be the exact point chrisdon was making in his initial question, but as usual you're more interested in going the poster than the discussion.

 

[GROTTO]

Seemed to be the exact point chrisdon was making in his initial question, but as usual you're more interested in going the poster than the discussion.

Actually he is not, if you look at the math, its pretty obvious he got the profit he stated from his staking. What he bet on the PB promo is irrelevant.