AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[TheGamblor]

Has anyone got any updated leaderboards they would like to share?
finding a few counts betfair, AFL and they are so different lol

Will post now

 

[TheGamblor]

2021 Brownlow Leaderboard

C.Oliver	29
M.Bontempelli	28
O.Wines	27
S.Walsh	26
J.Steele	24
T.Miller	23
D.Parish	22
T.Mitchell	20
Z.Merrett	19
J.Lyons	19
C.Petracca	19
T.Boak	17
J.Macrae	17
C.Guthrie	17
R.Laird	17
D.Mundy	15
C.Mills	15
L.Parker	13
D.Martin	13
J.Kelly	13
H.McCluggage	13
D.Sheed	13

13 votes is 18th - 22nd

TEAM VOTES
ADEL
R.Laird 17
T.Walker 9

BL
J.Lyons 19
H.McCluggage 13
D.Zorko 11

CARL
S.Walsh 26
H.McKay 5

COLL
J.deGoey 12
T.Adams 10
B.Grundy 7

ESS
D.Parish 22
Z.Merret 19

FRE
D.Mundy 15
S.Darcy 10
N.Fyfe 10
A.Brayshaw 8

GEEL
C.Guthrie 17
T.Stewart 9
P.Dangerfield 7

GCS
T.Miller 23
N.Anderson 5

GWS
J.Kelly 13
J.Hopper 11
T.Greene 9

HAW
T.Mitchell 20
J.O'Meara 7

MELB
C.Oliver 29
C.Petracca 19
M.Gawn 11

NM
B.Cunnington 10
J.Simpkin 6

PA
O.Wines 27
T.Boak 17

RICH
D.Martin 13
S.Bolton 9

STK
J.Steele 24
L.Dunstan 8

SYD
C.Mills 15
L.Parker 13
I.Heeney 10

WCE
D.Sheed 13
T.Kelly 9

WB
M.Bontempelli 28
J.Macrae 17
T.Liberatore

 

[botswana42]

Interested to hear how people are approaching outright betting atm?
The common theme among the counts seems to be that nobody has Bontempelli the (reasonably) commanding leader that the market expects (2.5 BF).
So, are people backing their leaders or 2nd/3rd people (Wines/Oliver/Walsh) or laying Bont?
Personally i have layed a bit at 2.24 & 2.98(4 weeks ago), but I obviously don't have full faith in my count (Wines slightly >Bont>Oliver).
Also, it goes without saying there are three rounds to go, never can fully know how they are going to play.

 

[salaterra]

Markets out fellas, Guthrie $2.10 still is criminal. The bloke is on 16-18 votes across most leaderboards. Got limited too $30 personally but managed to get a mate to put $455 on. Let’s tidy out Sportsbet!

Happens to me all the time now, keeping getting blocked. It is so annoying, when with racing apparently they are not allow to do that. With sports they have too much power.

 

[salaterra]

Has anyone got any updated leaderboards they would like to share?
finding a few counts betfair, AFL and they are so different lol

step one, never trust the AFL count, it's realllly bad

 

[salaterra]

Interested to hear how people are approaching outright betting atm?
The common theme among the counts seems to be that nobody has Bontempelli the (reasonably) commanding leader that the market expects (2.5 BF).
So, are people backing their leaders or 2nd/3rd people (Wines/Oliver/Walsh) or laying Bont?
Personally i have layed a bit at 2.24 & 2.98(4 weeks ago), but I obviously don't have full faith in my count (Wines slightly >Bont>Oliver).
Also, it goes without saying there are three rounds to go, never can fully know how they are going to play.

Bont's role going into the last 3 rounds doesn't seem great, playing a lot of time up forward on the weekend, with treloar coming back I can't see this changing. At this point I'd be betting on wines, walsh, oliver over Bont. His odds are just no where near value, for all the counts I have seen (where he is not clear first by any means)

 

[salaterra]

I have Trac 11th in my count.

trac 11th? that is very stiff, 6th personally.

 

[invisible_]

Interested to hear how people are approaching outright betting atm?
The common theme among the counts seems to be that nobody has Bontempelli the (reasonably) commanding leader that the market expects (2.5 BF).
So, are people backing their leaders or 2nd/3rd people (Wines/Oliver/Walsh) or laying Bont?
Personally i have layed a bit at 2.24 & 2.98(4 weeks ago), but I obviously don't have full faith in my count (Wines slightly >Bont>Oliver).
Also, it goes without saying there are three rounds to go, never can fully know how they are going to play.

In terms of outright winner, managed to get Bont preseason at 12s and Oliver early in the season at 19s so lucky enough to have coverage for either option there. As you said there's 3 rounds to go so still potential for anything to happen, but only one I am genuinely worried about is Wines so took him at $5.50 on BF early in the week as a bit of a hedge.

Having said that, throughout the season the outright market has been much more accurately priced than the top 5/10/20s (in particular top 20s, looking at you Andrew '3 votes' Brayshaw) so will be expecting these 'niche' markets (and the additional markets released post season) to be the source of most value and not overly fussed about the medal winner itself.

 

[salaterra]

ROUND 20 VOTES

Walsh 3
Silvagni 2
McKay 1
Jack Steele 36d, 14t could poll had a great game, however Carlton dominated the whole game, Silvagni 25d, 1g playing as ruck was influential, as was McKay who kicked 5 and deserves a vote.

Dale 3
Macrae 2
Daniel 1
Dale 31d 1g, probably gets best on, case can be made for Macrae 31d, 19 contested, 12 clearance, monster game in the middle. Daniel also very good game good enough for a vote.

C.Guthrie 3
Z.Guthrie 2
I.Smith 1
Guthrie bros dominant, bit of a raffle for the one vote

de Goey 3
Sidebottom 2
Adams 1
Chuck in Crisp who got the 10 coaches votes and them 4 could be any order. Watching the game, De Goey gets the three for me. And trust me I want Adams votes. If votes close I lean towards the mids before half backs.

Oliver 3
Petracca 2
Gawn 1
Book it

O'Meara 3
Wingard 2
Titch 1
Lyons 38d 1g very very stiff not to poll, could steal the 1 from Titch, Hawks dominated whole game until last q made it close. Mitchell had 34d and a goal.

Merrett 3
Papley 2
Mills 1
Merrett played unreal but side did lose but was close the whole way. Papley 4 goals and was instrumental in the Swans serge, could easily fall out of votes. Mills 33d and a goal, could easily poll 2 or even 3 am being conservative. Parker chance for a vote.

Brayshaw 3
Cerra 2
Stack 1
Top two book it. Lottery for the one.

Amon 3
Boak 2
Wines 1
Amon clear BOG, Dixon, Haynes and JKelly all could make a case for votes, gone the two Port mids as Port one. Bit of a raffle.

Any differing/agreeing opinions discuss

I think Jelly and Dixon both more likely than Boak, but the rest I like, i'd be giving lyons 1 for sure.

 

[salaterra]

I have all those on 13 equal 20th. FYI for anyone.

Taylor Adams at $9...

View attachment 1195232

I really like this count, very similar to mine, only major difference is Brayshaw and Adams both on 3-4 less for me

 

[salaterra]

2021 Brownlow Leaderboard

C.Oliver	29
M.Bontempelli	28
O.Wines	27
S.Walsh	26
J.Steele	24
T.Miller	23
D.Parish	22
T.Mitchell	20
Z.Merrett	19
J.Lyons	19
C.Petracca	19
T.Boak	17
J.Macrae	17
C.Guthrie	17
R.Laird	17
D.Mundy	15
C.Mills	15
L.Parker	13
D.Martin	13
J.Kelly	13
H.McCluggage	13
D.Sheed	13

13 votes is 18th - 22nd

TEAM VOTES
ADEL
R.Laird 17
T.Walker 9

BL
J.Lyons 19
H.McCluggage 13
D.Zorko 11

CARL
S.Walsh 26
H.McKay 5

COLL
J.deGoey 12
T.Adams 10
B.Grundy 7

ESS
D.Parish 22
Z.Merret 19

FRE
D.Mundy 15
S.Darcy 10
N.Fyfe 10
A.Brayshaw 8

GEEL
C.Guthrie 17
T.Stewart 9
P.Dangerfield 7

GCS
T.Miller 23
N.Anderson 5

GWS
J.Kelly 13
J.Hopper 11
T.Greene 9

HAW
T.Mitchell 20
J.O'Meara 7

MELB
C.Oliver 29
C.Petracca 19
M.Gawn 11

NM
B.Cunnington 10
J.Simpkin 6

PA
O.Wines 27
T.Boak 17

RICH
D.Martin 13
S.Bolton 9

STK
J.Steele 24
L.Dunstan 8

SYD
C.Mills 15
L.Parker 13
I.Heeney 10

WCE
D.Sheed 13
T.Kelly 9

WB
M.Bontempelli 28
J.Macrae 17
T.Liberatore

I really like this count, for me the major differences, are parker and mills switched. Trac and macrae on at least 3 votes more each for mine.

 

[mozz23]

Anyone have Grundy close to Collingwood most votes?

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Anyone have Grundy close to Collingwood most votes?

I have him on 3 and 10 off leader Adams. I can’t see him being on more than 5 or 6.

 

[mozz23]

I have him on 3 and 10 off leader Adams. I can’t see him being on more than 5 or 6.

Yeah I would have thought it was between Adams and JDG just saw he was $4 and thought I may have underestimated his season

 

[ShaunWDT]

Bont's role going into the last 3 rounds doesn't seem great, playing a lot of time up forward on the weekend, with treloar coming back I can't see this changing. At this point I'd be betting on wines, walsh, oliver over Bont. His odds are just no where near value, for all the counts I have seen (where he is not clear first by any means)

Bont finishes with 3 sides that don't really have a tagger and hell stretch all 3 of them while up forward, could be very hard to catch.

 

[salaterra]

Bont finishes with 3 sides that don't really have a tagger and hell stretch all 3 of them while up forward, could be very hard to catch.

Bont has not got tagged all season anyway, they tend to always go towards libba. I wouldn't say anyone has to catch him because he's not outright first on my count haha.

 

[salaterra]

In terms of outright winner, managed to get Bont preseason at 12s and Oliver early in the season at 19s so lucky enough to have coverage for either option there. As you said there's 3 rounds to go so still potential for anything to happen, but only one I am genuinely worried about is Wines so took him at $5.50 on BF early in the week as a bit of a hedge.

Having said that, throughout the season the outright market has been much more accurately priced than the top 5/10/20s (in particular top 20s, looking at you Andrew '3 votes' Brayshaw) so will be expecting these 'niche' markets (and the additional markets released post season) to be the source of most value and not overly fussed about the medal winner itself.

Couldn't agree more, some of the value in top 20 just doesn't make sense sometimes, I wouldn't be surprised if like last year, the post season markets are crazy value as well (praying for no Menegola situation though)

 

[Tigers04]

Couldn't agree more, some of the value in top 20 just doesn't make sense sometimes, I wouldn't be surprised if like last year, the post season markets are crazy value as well (praying for no Menegola situation though)

Mcluggage or mills will be the menegola this year lock it in. Very hesitant to include mcluggage in on any multis as he’s just an unknown in terms of polling. Really needs another BOG. Names like heeney, degoey, Gawn, Adam’s, sheed, Tim Kelly, are all popular players in the AFL and generally stand out more than other unproven pollers

 

[salaterra]

Mcluggage or mills will be the menegola this year lock it in. Very hesitant to include mcluggage in on any multis as he’s just an unknown in terms of polling. Really needs another BOG. Names like heeney, degoey, Gawn, Adam’s, sheed, Tim Kelly, are all popular players in the AFL and generally stand out more than other unproven pollers

I agree with this entirely, mills or mclugg will miss a lot of votes, one of them if not both!

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

Anyone have Grundy close to Collingwood most votes?

I have him on 7, 5 behind leader JDG

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

Mcluggage or mills will be the menegola this year lock it in. Very hesitant to include mcluggage in on any multis as he’s just an unknown in terms of polling. Really needs another BOG. Names like heeney, degoey, Gawn, Adam’s, sheed, Tim Kelly, are all popular players in the AFL and generally stand out more than other unproven pollers

McCuggage simply hasn't played well enough to poll. He dominated early in the season and probably will be leading at the round 7/8 mark. But has hardly played a poll-worthy game since

 

[Hava Alle]

Bont has not got tagged all season anyway, they tend to always go towards libba. I wouldn't say anyone has to catch him because he's not outright first on my count haha.

Im on Piggy Oliver.

 

[Tigers04]

McCuggage simply hasn't played well enough to poll. He dominated early in the season and probably will be leading at the round 7/8 mark. But has hardly played a poll-worthy game since

Round 9,10 and 14 he should arguably get 1 in each game.
Round 18 he was dominant and if it wasn’t for Riewoldt kicking 6 he would of polled 3, so should poll 2.
Does need a few more votes though to be comfortable.
What do you have him on?

 

[burge13]

Im still hoping people have underpolled Brayshaw

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

Round 9,10 and 14 he should arguably get 1 in each game.
Round 18 he was dominant and if it wasn’t for Riewoldt kicking 6 he would of polled 3, so should poll 2.
Does need a few more votes though to be comfortable.
What do you have him on?

13