AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[EFL Boy]

Dangerfield 3 more votes today likely.

 

[Johanpetro]

3. Danger
2. Guthrie
1. Hawkins (could be raffled tbh)

 

[salaterra]

Laird should get the 3 last night also, had a huuge game! Guthrie playing well at the moment, Parker might get the 2 but to be safe maybe just the 1?
hopefully Kelly can poll this afternoon

Kelly becoming the biggest tease now, from what looked to be a clear 3 last week before injury, to playing fit last night in a GWS win, and just was not being feed the ball by team mates as often as normal, then two gettable shots by his standards. Let's hope he can put us out of our misery with more votes very soon.

 

[NonPhixion]

3.Whitfield - lock
2. Green
1. Perryman

 

[freo_leo29]

Fyfe likely done for season so can rule him out of top 20

 

[AFLFootyChick]

Given Danger more than likely gets 3 votes on the weekend, how far away is he from the Top 20? Would love to screw Sh$tbet out of their ridiculous odds for him making it. Lots of us are on that bet.

 

[EFL Boy]

Given Danger more than likely gets 3 votes on the weekend, how far away is he from the Top 20? Would love to screw Sh$tbet out of their ridiculous odds for him making it. Lots of us are on that bet.

I'd say he will need at least 6 more votes to be knocking on the door.

 

[NonPhixion]

From memory - didnt Danger have the most votes in the last 8 rounds last year?

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Reasonably happy with this bet

View attachment 1150326

Same bet now is $34 boosted.

This bet is home on my count, but according to most other counts I’ll still need Sheed to have 1 or 2 more good games. I have Sheed on 17.

 

[Geeves Train]

Live vision of Dangerfield and top 20

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

My count

1. Bont - 27
2. Wines - 25
3. Oliver - 25
4. Walsh - 24
5. Steele - 22

 

[TheGamblor]

Drew 3
Boak 2
Houston 1

Larkey 3
Thomas 2
Simpkin 1

Lyons 3
McInerney 2
McCluggage 1

Sheed 3
King 2
Kelly 1

Bontempelli 3
Macrae 2
Oliver 1

Laird 3
Mitchell 2
Keays 1

Heeney 3
Kennedy 2
Parker 1

Dangerfield 3
Guthrie 2
Ratugolea 1

Whitfield 3
Green 2
Daniels 1

 

[Johanpetro]

Laird 3
Mitchell 2
Keays 1

Will be interesting this one. Mitchell 29 touches and a goal in a relatively close game but got 0 coaches votes. Fingers crossed the umps see it differently than the coaches (as they usually do)

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Will be interesting this one. Mitchell 29 touches and a goal in a relatively close game but got 0 coaches votes. Fingers crossed the umps see it differently than the coaches (as they usually do)

I gave Riley O’Brien 2 and Mitchell 1

 

[Crownlow]

TOP 30 Based off BYB, EPSN , Sportingnews and Betfair

Rank	Team	Player	Average	Min	Max
1​	Western Bulldogs	Bontempelli, Marcus	28.88​	19​	36​
2​	Port Adelaide	Wines, Oliver	28.13​	18​	37​
3​	Melbourne	Oliver, Clayton	23.13​	15​	30​
4​	Carlton	Walsh, Sam	22.25​	15​	28​
5​	Essendon	Parish, Darcy	22.25​	19​	26​
6​	Gold Coast	Miller, Touk	21.63​	14​	28​
7​	ST Kilda	Steele, Jack	21.50​	13​	28​
8​	Melbourne	Petracca, Christian	20.25​	14​	30​
9​	Hawthorn	Mitchell, Tom	18.63​	11​	24​
10​	Essendon	Merrett, Zachary	17.75​	10​	25​
11​	Adelaide	Laird, Rory	16.50​	9​	26​
12​	Fremantle	Mundy, David	16.13​	11​	23​
13​	Brisbane	McCluggage, Hugh	15.75​	8​	23​
14​	Geelong	Guthrie, Cameron	14.88​	8​	22​
15​	Brisbane	Lyons, Jarryd	14.75​	8​	26​
16​	Western Bulldogs	Macrae, Jackson	14.63​	6​	28​
17​	Port Adelaide	Boak, Travis	13.63​	7​	22​
18​	Sydney	Mills, Callum	13.38​	6​	21​
19​	GWS	Kelly, Joshua	13.13​	9​	20​
20​	Sydney	Parker, Luke	12.25​	5​	22​
21​	Richmond	Martin, Dustin	12.25​	8​	17​
22​	North Melbourne	Cunnington, Ben	12.25​	8​	19​
23​	West Coast	Sheed, Dominic	10.75​	5​	17​
24​	Sydney	Heeney, Isaac	10.00​	7​	16​
25​	Adelaide	Walker, Taylor	9.25​	7​	13​
26​	West Coast	Kelly, Tim	9.25​	4​	16​
27​	Brisbane	Zorko, Dayne	9.00​	4​	14​
28​	Melbourne	Gawn, Max	8.63​	5​	15​
29​	Collingwood	De Goey, Jordan	8.50​	3​	17​
30​	Fremantle	Brayshaw, Andrew	8.38​	3​	16​

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

From memory - didnt Danger have the most votes in the last 8 rounds last year?

If only!

Trac/Neale - 12
Danger - 11

IIRC, some took Danger @$61 for most votes rounds 11-18, I got $26 and I would have been very happy with the three-way tie. Let's watch him this year again!

 

[Johanpetro]

TOP 30 Based off BYB, EPSN , Sportingnews and Betfair

Rank	Team	Player	Average	Min	Max
1​	Western Bulldogs	Bontempelli, Marcus	28.88​	19​	36​
2​	Port Adelaide	Wines, Oliver	28.13​	18​	37​
3​	Melbourne	Oliver, Clayton	23.13​	15​	30​
4​	Carlton	Walsh, Sam	22.25​	15​	28​
5​	Essendon	Parish, Darcy	22.25​	19​	26​
6​	Gold Coast	Miller, Touk	21.63​	14​	28​
7​	ST Kilda	Steele, Jack	21.50​	13​	28​
8​	Melbourne	Petracca, Christian	20.25​	14​	30​
9​	Hawthorn	Mitchell, Tom	18.63​	11​	24​
10​	Essendon	Merrett, Zachary	17.75​	10​	25​
11​	Adelaide	Laird, Rory	16.50​	9​	26​
12​	Fremantle	Mundy, David	16.13​	11​	23​
13​	Brisbane	McCluggage, Hugh	15.75​	8​	23​
14​	Geelong	Guthrie, Cameron	14.88​	8​	22​
15​	Brisbane	Lyons, Jarryd	14.75​	8​	26​
16​	Western Bulldogs	Macrae, Jackson	14.63​	6​	28​
17​	Port Adelaide	Boak, Travis	13.63​	7​	22​
18​	Sydney	Mills, Callum	13.38​	6​	21​
19​	GWS	Kelly, Joshua	13.13​	9​	20​
20​	Sydney	Parker, Luke	12.25​	5​	22​
21​	Richmond	Martin, Dustin	12.25​	8​	17​
22​	North Melbourne	Cunnington, Ben	12.25​	8​	19​
23​	West Coast	Sheed, Dominic	10.75​	5​	17​
24​	Sydney	Heeney, Isaac	10.00​	7​	16​
25​	Adelaide	Walker, Taylor	9.25​	7​	13​
26​	West Coast	Kelly, Tim	9.25​	4​	16​
27​	Brisbane	Zorko, Dayne	9.00​	4​	14​
28​	Melbourne	Gawn, Max	8.63​	5​	15​
29​	Collingwood	De Goey, Jordan	8.50​	3​	17​
30​	Fremantle	Brayshaw, Andrew	8.38​	3​	16​

I’d literally cream if that’s the case

 

[jimboslice]

TOP 30 Based off BYB, EPSN , Sportingnews and Betfair

Rank	Team	Player	Average	Min	Max
1​	Western Bulldogs	Bontempelli, Marcus	28.88​	19​	36​
2​	Port Adelaide	Wines, Oliver	28.13​	18​	37​
3​	Melbourne	Oliver, Clayton	23.13​	15​	30​
4​	Carlton	Walsh, Sam	22.25​	15​	28​
5​	Essendon	Parish, Darcy	22.25​	19​	26​
6​	Gold Coast	Miller, Touk	21.63​	14​	28​
7​	ST Kilda	Steele, Jack	21.50​	13​	28​
8​	Melbourne	Petracca, Christian	20.25​	14​	30​
9​	Hawthorn	Mitchell, Tom	18.63​	11​	24​
10​	Essendon	Merrett, Zachary	17.75​	10​	25​
11​	Adelaide	Laird, Rory	16.50​	9​	26​
12​	Fremantle	Mundy, David	16.13​	11​	23​
13​	Brisbane	McCluggage, Hugh	15.75​	8​	23​
14​	Geelong	Guthrie, Cameron	14.88​	8​	22​
15​	Brisbane	Lyons, Jarryd	14.75​	8​	26​
16​	Western Bulldogs	Macrae, Jackson	14.63​	6​	28​
17​	Port Adelaide	Boak, Travis	13.63​	7​	22​
18​	Sydney	Mills, Callum	13.38​	6​	21​
19​	GWS	Kelly, Joshua	13.13​	9​	20​
20​	Sydney	Parker, Luke	12.25​	5​	22​
21​	Richmond	Martin, Dustin	12.25​	8​	17​
22​	North Melbourne	Cunnington, Ben	12.25​	8​	19​
23​	West Coast	Sheed, Dominic	10.75​	5​	17​
24​	Sydney	Heeney, Isaac	10.00​	7​	16​
25​	Adelaide	Walker, Taylor	9.25​	7​	13​
26​	West Coast	Kelly, Tim	9.25​	4​	16​
27​	Brisbane	Zorko, Dayne	9.00​	4​	14​
28​	Melbourne	Gawn, Max	8.63​	5​	15​
29​	Collingwood	De Goey, Jordan	8.50​	3​	17​
30​	Fremantle	Brayshaw, Andrew	8.38​	3​	16​

How anyone could even “potentially” have Dusty on 17 is insane

 

[LicoriceAllsorts]

How anyone could even “potentially” have Dusty on 17 is insane

but but but he's the best player eva!!!

 

[jimboslice]

but but but he's the best player eva!!!

love it
That one season he had was incredible but that was a while ago now

 

[iluvparis]

love it
That one season he had was incredible but that was a while ago now

Yup - definitely one of the most overrated players of the modern era apart from that one fluke season

 

[Crownlow]

How anyone could even “potentially” have Dusty on 17 is insane

17 is absolute best case scenario.





Round 1 : Clear BOG
Round 2 : Clear BOG
Round 5 : Richmond beat Saints by 86 points. Coin toss who gets the 3- possible vote getters:

Year

Player

Team

Opponent

Game

Round

Disposals

Goals

Hitouts

Tackles

Clearances

Frees

CP

CM

Goal Assits

Margin

Votes

SN

BYB

Betfair

ESPN

Total

Min

Max

STDEV

2021​

Riewoldt, Jack

Richmond

St Kilda

37​

5​

4.4%​

25.0%​

-​

3.0%​

2.3%​

-​

4.2%​

16.7%​

7.1%​

100.0%​

1.447​

1​

1​

1​

1.5​

1.125​

1​

2​

0.216506​

2021​

Graham, Jack

Richmond

St Kilda

37​

5​

4.4%​

15.0%​

-​

18.2%​

9.1%​

-​

4.9%​

-​

7.1%​

100.0%​

1.196​

0​

0​

0​

1.5​

0.375​

0​

2​

0.649519​

2021​

Bolton, Shai

Richmond

St Kilda

37​

5​

7.5%​

5.0%​

-​

4.5%​

18.2%​

7.7%​

7.0%​

-​

7.1%​

100.0%​

1.080​

2​

0​

1.5​

0​

0.875​

0​

2​

0.892679​

2021​

Edwards, Shane

Richmond

St Kilda

37​

5​

7.5%​

5.0%​

-​

4.5%​

15.9%​

7.7%​

8.5%​

-​

7.1%​

100.0%​

1.020​

3​

2.5​

2​

2.5​

2.5​

2​

3​

0.353553​

2021​

Martin, Dustin

Richmond

St Kilda

37​

5​

8.7%​

5.0%​

-​

3.0%​

11.4%​

-​

8.5%​

-​

-​

100.0%​

0.678​

0​

2.5​

1.5​

0.5​

1.125​

0​

3​

0.960143​

Round 8 : Clear BOG
Round 11: Riewoldt BOG - no clear 2 or 1 , could potentionally get 1 vote.

Year

Player

Team

Opponent

Game

Round

Disposals

Goals

Hitouts

Tackles

Clearances

Frees

CP

CM

Goal Assits

Margin

Votes

SN

BYB

Betfair

ESPN

Total

Min

Max

STDEV

2021​

Cotchin, Trent

Richmond

Adelaide

97​

11​

5.1%​

5.9%​

-​

14.7%​

22.2%​

5.3%​

9.1%​

-​

-​

46.7%​

1.319​

0​

2​

0​

0​

0.5​

0​

2​

0.866025​

2021​

Riewoldt, Jack

Richmond

Adelaide

97​

11​

5.1%​

29.4%​

-​

2.9%​

-​

5.3%​

3.0%​

7.1%​

8.3%​

46.7%​

1.190​

3​

3​

2.5​

3​

2.875​

2​

3​

0.216506​

2021​

C-Jones, Callum

Richmond

Adelaide

97​

11​

2.6%​

23.5%​

6.3%​

4.4%​

-​

-​

6.1%​

28.6%​

8.3%​

46.7%​

0.750​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2021​

Keays, Ben

Adelaide

Richmond

97​

11​

9.8%​

-​

-​

17.0%​

27.5%​

8.3%​

8.2%​

-​

-​

(46.7%)​

0.691​

2​

0.5​

1​

0​

0.875​

0​

2​

0.73951​

2021​

Martin, Dustin

Richmond

Adelaide

97​

11​

5.9%​

5.9%​

-​

5.9%​

7.4%​

5.3%​

6.8%​

7.1%​

8.3%​

46.7%​

0.414​

0​

0​

0.5​

0​

0.125​

0​

1​

0.216506​

2021​

Bolton, Shai

Richmond

Adelaide

97​

11​

5.9%​

5.9%​

-​

5.9%​

11.1%​

(5.3%)​

5.3%​

-​

16.7%​

46.7%​

0.378​

0​

0​

1​

1.5​

0.625​

0​

2​

0.649519​

Round 12: Dusty or Parish BOG - gets 2 or 3 votes.
Round 13: No clear bog could get a vote :

Year

Player

Team

Opponent

Game

Round

Disposals

Goals

Hitouts

Tackles

Clearances

Frees

CP

CM

Goal Assits

Margin

Votes

SN

BYB

Betfair

ESPN

Total

Min

Max

STDEV

2021​

Martin, Dustin

Richmond

West Coast

111​

13​

6.0%​

16.7%​

-​

5.7%​

20.7%​

-​

8.8%​

9.1%​

-​

(6.7%)​

1.028​

0​

0​

0.5​

0.5​

0.25​

0​

1​

0.25​

2021​

Yeo, Elliot

West Coast

Richmond

111​

13​

5.7%​

-​

-​

12.2%​

19.4%​

12.0%​

10.9%​

9.1%​

10.0%​

6.7%​

0.859​

0​

0​

0.5​

0​

0.125​

0​

1​

0.216506​

2021​

Naitanui, Nicholas

West Coast

Richmond

111​

13​

5.7%​

7.7%​

79.5%​

7.3%​

13.9%​

4.0%​

10.9%​

9.1%​

10.0%​

6.7%​

0.847​

0​

2​

1.5​

1​

1.125​

0​

2​

0.73951​

2021​

Redden, Jack

West Coast

Richmond

111​

13​

9.1%​

-​

-​

4.9%​

19.4%​

4.0%​

8.8%​

9.1%​

-​

6.7%​

0.820​

0​

2​

0.5​

2​

1.125​

0​

2​

0.892679​

2021​

Kennedy, Joshua

West Coast

Richmond

111​

13​

4.2%​

30.8%​

-​

7.3%​

2.8%​

(12.0%)​

3.6%​

9.1%​

30.0%​

6.7%​

0.685​

3​

1​

2​

1​

1.75​

1​

3​

0.829156​

2021​

Bolton, Shai

Richmond

West Coast

111​

13​

6.0%​

8.3%​

-​

7.5%​

10.3%​

6.7%​

7.3%​

-​

33.3%​

(6.7%)​

0.434​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

0​

2021​

Lambert, Kane

Richmond

West Coast

111​

13​

7.0%​

16.7%​

-​

5.7%​

6.9%​

(13.3%)​

8.0%​

-​

-​

(6.7%)​

0.265​

1​

0​

1​

1.5​

0.875​

0​

2​

0.544862​

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

Simulated votes after rd 19:

Rank	Team	Player	Votes
1​	Melbourne	Oliver, Clayton	25.5​
2​	Port Adelaide	Wines, Ollie	25.0​
3​	Western Bulldogs	Bontempelli, Marcus	24.2​
4​	Melbourne	Petracca, Christian	23.4​
5​	St Kilda	Steele, Jack	22.8​
6​	Carlton	Walsh, Sam	21.8​
7​	Essendon	Parish, Darcy	20.1​
8​	Hawthorn	Mitchell, Tom	18.0​
9​	Western Bulldogs	Macrae, Jack	17.4​
10​	Gold Coast	Miller, Touk	17.3​
11​	Essendon	Merrett, Zach	16.9​
12​	Adelaide	Laird, Rory	16.3​
13​	Geelong	Guthrie, Cameron	16.1​
14​	Brisbane Lions	Lyons, Jarryd	15.0​
15​	Port Adelaide	Boak, Travis	14.5​
16​	Brisbane Lions	McCluggage, Hugh	13.9​
17​	North Melbourne	Cunnington, Ben	13.0​
18​	Richmond	Martin, Dustin	12.9​
19​	Sydney	Parker, Luke	12.6​
20​	Fremantle	Mundy, David	12.4​
21​	West Coast	Sheed, Dom	10.9​
22​	Sydney	Mills, Callum	10.8​
23​	Collingwood	de Goey, Jordan	10.4​
24​	Greater Western Sydney	Kelly, Josh	10.1​
25​	Brisbane Lions	Zorko, Dayne	9.9​
26​	Melbourne	Gawn, Max	9.9​
27​	Adelaide	Walker, Taylor	9.4​
28​	Western Bulldogs	Liberatore, Tom	9.0​
29​	Greater Western Sydney	Greene, Toby	8.8​
30​	Richmond	Riewoldt, Jack	8.5​

 

[salaterra]

This bet is home on my count, but according to most other counts I’ll still need Sheed to have 1 or 2 more good games. I have Sheed on 17.

I am sorry, but no way Sheed is on 17, I have him on 11.5.

 

[salaterra]

How anyone could even “potentially” have Dusty on 17 is insane

Dusty on 17 is crazy, but we have to remember umps do favour certain players, and he is one of them. That is why based on my natural count he is on 13, but could easily be inflated to 15-16 based on that bias towards players like him, tim kelly, macrae, etc. Who I have polling higher than what a lot of other people do based purely on umps historical favouritism.