AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[salaterra]

Anyone like the to poll in most games market? Really like Titch at $21. Reckon that’s massive overs.

Have him polling in a lot of games.

he was $101 when it released so, if you think $21 is value imagine 101

 

[salaterra]

I didn't think Martin was particularly impressive in round 5, wouldn't be surprised if he missed out here all together on votes. Clear BOG's in rounds 1 and 2 though. Falls short for mine.

Heya, you can't overcomplicate it too much, leading disposals, with a goal, and an extremely high proven poller. Easy votes in that round, a potential to steal the 3 from Parish's medal, he's 20th for me. stealing the medal puts him 19th

 

[RedCarpetFev]

Heya, you can't overcomplicate it too much, leading disposals, with a goal, and an extremely high proven poller. Easy votes in that round, a potential to steal the 3 from Parish's medal, he's 20th for me. stealing the medal puts him 19th

Guessing you have Mitchell winning the brownlow then and Macrae polling more than Bont?

 

[Young Gun #6]

he was $101 when it released so, if you think $21 is value imagine 101

My mate got on

 

[NYRB]

I Did a bit of an analysis tonight on the predictor betfair last year


* 53 matches they tipped with 3 votes, 40/53 they predicted right in 2020 (75.47% success rate)


* in 42 games with the outright leader with 2.5 weighted votes, 19/42 were correct in predicting BOG on Brownlow night (45.2% success rate) in 2020



* 31 of those 42 games with highest outright weighted at 2.5 , did those players manage to get 3 Brownlow Votes or 2 Brownlow votes in 2020 (73.81% success rate)

 

[NYRB]

Was talking to a person tonight, he reckons a 75% strike rate to predict shoe-in 3 votes is a poor conversion.

I was kind of a bit skeptical, think an idea percentage is 80-85% personally but happy to take that if thats what the Betfair predictor reckons. I'll try to do a quick summary of 2019 and look into things like Coaches votes.

 

[FootyStar#1]

Was talking to a person tonight, he reckons a 75% strike rate to predict shoe-in 3 votes is a poor conversion.

I was kind of a bit skeptical, think an idea percentage is 80-85% personally but happy to take that if thats what the Betfair predictor reckons. I'll try to do a quick summary of 2019 and look into things like Coaches votes.

I agree. For the games which I've marked as 3 vote games, I would expect at least an 80%-85% strike rate. I'm pretty conservative in labelling them 3 unless I'm very certain. I also have a group of games (about 20 games) which I have marked as extremely certain which I'd expect a 95%+ strike rate.

 

[threesam]

Was talking to a person tonight, he reckons a 75% strike rate to predict shoe-in 3 votes is a poor conversion.

I was kind of a bit skeptical, think an idea percentage is 80-85% personally but happy to take that if thats what the Betfair predictor reckons. I'll try to do a quick summary of 2019 and look into things like Coaches votes.

AFLCA 10 votes predicts 3 Brownlow votes less than 70% of the time (based on 2016-2019)...

 

[jimboslice]

Wines, Bont, Oliver $151 for a 3 way tie on SB
I’ve chucked $5 on it just because I’d hate myself if it does happen and I didn’t get on lol

 

[5 Bucks]

Someone pointed to Wines getting top coaches votes as another factor of why he gets 3 v Carlton in the match a reviewed a while back. He topped the coaches votes with 8, which is ~25% chance of getting the 3 according to the data. Interesting stuff!

I guess 8 votes could be clear second best behind the clear 10 votes though, which is a clear 2 brownlow votes. Would be interesting to see how often 8 coaches votes equates to 3 brownlow votes if 8 is the highest that the coaches award in that particular match.

 

[invisible_]

Someone pointed to Wines getting top coaches votes as another factor of why he gets 3 v Carlton in the match a reviewed a while back. He topped the coaches votes with 8, which is ~25% chance of getting the 3 according to the data. Interesting stuff!

Which is still a higher % than each of the other players on the ground...
Interesting data indeed though, fits the narrative often shared around here that coaches votes aren't a great indicator of Brownlow votes. Suprised the 10 votes correlates that well

FWIW my model has him polling the three votes 55% of the time in the Rd5 game, above Amon 14%, Walsh 11% and DBJ 8%

 

[TurbosTeam]

Which is still a higher % than each of the other players on the ground...
Interesting data indeed though, fits the narrative often shared around here that coaches votes aren't a great indicator of Brownlow votes. Suprised the 10 votes correlates that well

FWIW my model has him polling the three votes 55% of the time in the Rd5 game, above Amon 14%, Walsh 11% and DBJ 8%

How do you obtain your data for the model and what program do you use to analyse this data?

 

[NYRB]

The Betfair predictor in 2019 was more accurate on the '3 votes' market. Im thinking last year with shortened season and shortened playing time created a bit more 'variability'.

The 2019 Predictor results


* 60 matches they tipped with outright 3 votes winner, 50/60 they predicted right in 2019 (83.33% success rate)


* in 72 games with the outright leader with 2.5 weighted votes, 50/72 were correct in predicting BOG on Brownlow night (69.44% success rate) in 2019


* 62 of those 72 games with highest outright weighted at 2.5 , did those players manage to get 3 Brownlow Votes or 2 Brownlow votes in 2019 (86.11% success rate)

I saw them List Amon for instance at 2.5 weighted votes for Round 5, 2021 . Im happy to back against the percentages here and still say he doesn't poll 3 or 2.

The percentages were much better in 2019 compared to 2020. And from memory they dont have the data of 2018 but have been following it closely and there were generally on the mark going back further years.

 

[rwandandream]

How do you obtain your data for the model and what program do you use to analyse this data?

Taking Home Charlie

A fully reproducible Brownlow Model

analysisofafl.netlify.app

This might be a good starting point.

 

[alhay6]

I've said it before but i'll say it again given how much attention their leaderboard is getting, but be very careful with the betfair count. It's clear they don't watch the games and use stats first and foremost. Best example I've found so far is them giving Zac Tuohy 8 votes! I have not seen a leaderboard that comes close to giving him that many votes.

 

[alhay6]

I've said it before but i'll say it again given how much attention their leaderboard is getting, but be very careful with the betfair count. It's clear they don't watch the games and use stats first and foremost. Best example I've found so far is them giving Zac Tuohy 8 votes! I have not seen a leaderboard that comes close to giving him that many votes.

Another one I've noticed - Charlie Dixon polling 0 votes this season. Will eat my hat if that happens.

 

[NonPhixion]

The best model for determining 3 votes is just watching the game from start to finish.

 

[squeaky1000]

Has anyone had any luck submitting BYO’s to Sportsbet? I was messaging them before and they seemed to think that there wouldn’t be any more BYO bets up anytime soon, although I have noticed there’s a couple in there that haven’t been previously

 

[jajawinx]

When can we multi top 5, 10 and 20?

 

[TheRednWhite]

Macrae to finish outside the top 10 @1.85 love it. Anyone know what this opened at?

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Most 3 vote games?

 

[TheRednWhite]

Most 3 vote games?

thinking someone like Parish @9 might be value
this market might get shafted by dead heat rules I think....betfair predictor has top 5 all getting 4-5 BOGs, Bont with 6 potentially

 

[NonPhixion]

Macrae to finish outside the top 10 @1.85 love it. Anyone know what this opened at?

Opened at $1.80

 

[dontlimitme]

how shit is the wait until brownlow night

 

[invisible_]

Opened at $1.80

$1.90 at first, moved into $1.80 then back out