AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[Frinkle]

Find it amusing that both Simpkin and Greenwood overpolled last year to be fairly big upsets for teams votes. This year could not buy a vote.
So biggest let downs this year
macrae not even in top 20.
Parker not beating mills.
And josh kelly….
And crisp winning collingwoods. In hindsight (beautiful thing) prob not shocked
…the rest not to far off expected.

 

[Prochard123]

Bookies destroyed most people this year for sure besides those that got on Wines early/outright. Even with them destroying people, they are still so stingey not allowing anyone to multi anything or pending through every value bet that we make. If theres anyone worse than the umpires tonight, its them

I landed multiple 8-leg multis and only salvaged a 20% profit, super tough year.

Petracca and Steele were super high on my list and both were very disappointing.

 

[Prochard123]

Find it amusing that both Simpkin and Greenwood overpolled last year to be fairly big upsets for teams votes. This year could not buy a vote.
So biggest let downs this year
macrae not even in top 20.
Parker not beating mills.
And josh kelly….
And crisp winning collingwoods. In hindsight (beautiful thing) prob not shocked
…the rest not to far off expected.

Well BYB has been one of the most accurate sources in recent years and didn't have Macrae in the top 20 either so...

I wouldn't call that unexpected at all really.

 

[Gift]

Find it amusing that both Simpkin and Greenwood overpolled last year to be fairly big upsets for teams votes. This year could not buy a vote.

I think umps have a go to midfield player in their minds when they got no clue who to give votes to.

Simpkin became that man last year with Cunnington out and since Cunners was back he took his mantle back as the vote getter.

Greenwood did the same with Rowell out injured last year. This year Miller/Anderson took over since Greenwood was out of form.

 

[Jcpdragonx]

I doubt the umpires follow the AFL as much as we do. They probably had no clue who Touk Miller is until like mid way through the season when he was killing it for a while.

My only guess about Steele underpolling is that he isnt at the stage where he is in the umpires minds yet. I reckon in 1-2 years time he'll be noticed.

From what Ive seen of Walsh this year, he plays in so many positions to avoid tags so Carlton have made a game plan to free him up. Since Carltons mids are sooooooo bad and Walsh gets crazy numbers, he is going to be noticed. Also umps would know him since hes always hyped up.

Walsh was good from start to finish, Steele was never going to poll in most first half of season games. Touk also was never going to poll much til the second half. There seemed to be quite a few players who looked montys for 3 and didnt get it somehow, Steele, Macrae and Oliver all got 0's for what should have been 3s.

 

[Gift]

There seemed to be quite a few players who looked montys for 3 and didnt get it somehow, Steele, Macrae and Oliver all got 0's for what should have been 3s.

Im a terrible multitasker so I can relate to the umpire's hard job of trying to umpire correctly and giving votes as well. This means they are gonna miss some games where the 3s look certain to viewers.

 

[ShaunWDT]

Points bet soooo slow to pay out

Noticed that last weekend, really annoyed me and probably wont use them regularly because of it

 

[5 Bucks]

Few things I can think going against, despite being an inside mid

1. Not a high profile guy, from a pretty marginalised club

2. Has never really polled before, completely broke out this year so never been on the umps radar prior

3. Maybe didn't kick enough goals?

Tuok handballs too much. You see 30 touches but 20 of them will be handballs. He doesn't really burst from the stoppage much.

He is also a first quarter specialist. 12 of his 30 might be from Q1. 6 disposals per quarter from a guy who doesn't kick much, has no penetration in his kicks and doesn't kick goals doesn't = votes.

 

[mitchzz]

Ahh... Brownlow night... One of, if not, my favourite night of the year.

Super fun night in the end despite losing pretty much all my money

The week or so of research I did did not pay off lol

Looking back on things:

I was happy I correctly went with the below:
Sheed to top WC, McKay topping Carl w/o Walsh, Keays to beat out Tex, Crisp to win Coll with De Goey and Adams underpolling, Smith topping WB without Bont/Macrae

But it didn't count for much when I the following went and happened:
Jelly barely polled, Mills beat Parker, Touk barely polled, Macrae barely polled.

Jelly, Parker and Touk cost me a fair bit in the end

Oh well. Next year I shall put more than a week's thought into it! Also probably less ridiculous team multis I think

Congrats to all that had wins

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Umpires want to continue this story that a young midfield gun in Walsh is solo carrying a struggling midfield and taking that mantle from Cripps.

So they actively look for whatever opportunity to give him votes - that 3 vote game in round 4 was fking ridiculous

AFL Tables - Gold Coast v Carlton - Sat, 10-Apr-2021 7:25 PM - Match Stats

afltables.com

I just looked it up and yeah, I can see what you mean. The stats suggest several did more to earn votes than Walsh.

 

[Gift]

Oh well. Next year I shall put more than a week's thought into it! Also probably less ridiculous team multis I think

Unless you invent a machine to read the umpires thoughts, an extra 1000hrs research will make no difference if you are trying to nail all of the team leaders in a multi. Some are obvious but others are pretty much lotto.

The main people that win here grab value for outright winners early in the season or they multi super safe top 10/20 or 10+/15+/20+ votes together or if they do have a go at the team leaders, then you gotta do a lot of combos with safe locks with risks for value.

 

[Gift]

AFL Tables - Gold Coast v Carlton - Sat, 10-Apr-2021 7:25 PM - Match Stats

afltables.com

I just looked it up and yeah, I can see what you mean. The stats suggest several did more to earn votes than Walsh.

That game was a really hard game to decide the votes. Thats probably why it went to Walsh, so the umps can go grab dinner and go home.

 

[yamborghinidream]

Has anyone ever experienced messaging someone or posting a bet somewhere with the odds amount, then going back into the agencies app? I’ve had it multiple times now where the odds shorten in an instant and are shorter than the odds i posted. Im convinced their apps are picking up what we are now typing. My closest punting mate has experienced the same thing.

i know we have all experienced talking about something and then seeing advertisements popping up for said topic but this is also happening in my opinion. Keep an eye on it.

It's not that complicated lol

Someone has a marked up account, and is probably lucky they're getting the bets on to begin with.

 

[cznsnowy91]

Tried to put $30 on McCluggage on Lads at $81 for next year and they generously accepted 31 cents of my bet lol. Don't know why they even put the prices up if they are doing that.

 

[Gift]

Tried to put $30 on McCluggage on Lads at $81 for next year and they generously accepted 31 cents of my bet lol. Don't know why they even put the prices up if they are doing that.

Yeah annoying isnt it. Someone on here needs to get into politics and enforce a minimum bet law so they dont have so much control in reaming us in every way possible.

 

[Hellobill]

Has anyone ever experienced messaging someone or posting a bet somewhere with the odds amount, then going back into the agencies app? I’ve had it multiple times now where the odds shorten in an instant and are shorter than the odds i posted. Im convinced their apps are picking up what we are now typing. My closest punting mate has experienced the same thing.

i know we have all experienced talking about something and then seeing advertisements popping up for said topic but this is also happening in my opinion. Keep an eye on it.

read the permissions you give the agencies when you downlaod their apps, can access all sorts of things , including your contact lists to see who you know

 

[offthebusgus]

If Walsh gets that many votes, I’ll streak at the grand final. You’re way off. Carlton won 8 games and most of their losses were bad.

 

[5 Bucks]

Fisher, Stevic, Wallace... Why didn't you idiots give Howe a vote in round 22? He was clearly BOG!

 

[jack1231]

Tracc Gawn Oliver gonna hurt each other - all could top 10 but surely can’t all make it.

Neale gonna start to catch up I reckon.

Loving wines top 10 and $81 outright I have doubled down on him, something to cheer for, who knows. Proven poller. Got those thicc thighs

Bookies at b365 still have Dangerfield to win Geelong votes... will he go for surgery?

Note for next year- players thigh circumference (thicc thighs win the prize)

 

[ShaunWDT]

Unless you invent a machine to read the umpires thoughts, an extra 1000hrs research will make no difference if you are trying to nail all of the team leaders in a multi. Some are obvious but others are pretty much lotto.

The main people that win here grab value for outright winners early in the season or they multi super safe top 10/20 or 10+/15+/20+ votes together or if they do have a go at the team leaders, then you gotta do a lot of combos with safe locks with risks for value.

Only bets worth putting on are the ones you nail in season, bookies must love all the late multis everyone puts on, must have an 80% loss rate.

 

[WeetBixKid]

I dont, I just cant believe odds can change that coincidentally. Its also for futures bets.

Id be interested to view the bets on for say your phone 100’s of kilometres away and see if they change as well. I do believe that will be the future of gambling. Apps will pick up on our trends and everything will become individual for odds they offer. Exactly how other apps are starting to do now. Facebook picks up on what news feed to present to you given your interest’s and response to certain posts.

I have this too. Probably another tactic (like significantly lowering how much you can bet on an outcome immediately after trying to go big) the softs use before banning you.

 

[HTPunter]

Few things I can think going against, despite being an inside mid

1. Not a high profile guy, from a pretty marginalised club

2. Has never really polled before, completely broke out this year so never been on the umps radar prior

3. Maybe didn't kick enough goals?

Yep absolutely - but that all supports that it wasn't simply who got the most disposals, which is what I was arguing against.

 

[ShaunWDT]

Yep absolutely - but that all supports that it wasn't simply who got the most disposals, which is what I was arguing against.

Steele had a massive degree of recency bias, his first half of the year was very average in a side that got belted every second week, was always up against it.

 

[Ah12]

It's not that complicated lol

Someone has a marked up account, and is probably lucky they're getting the bets on to begin with.

The goal was always to get banned by them eventually, knowing at that point is when you have well and truly succeeded. Maybe im a little closer than i realised lol.

 

[salaterra]

Everyone should have had a decent cleanup tonight, no excuses.

Jack Macrae cost me a fortune