AFL 2021 Brownlow Medal (any results after no posting is automatic card)

[balmainforever]

 

[JDWCE]

Yep.. for every tie in every leg it will halve the payout.
It's an absolute joke and has stung me in previous years.

Eg if you had a $1.20 leg in there and they actually tie with someone, the "winning" factor of that leg is actually $0.60 ie it is losing you money.

It really should only halve the winnings, ie becomes a ~$1.10 leg. But thats not how it works in the gambling world.

Yeah it's garbage. Would be better off not throwing the odds in there. Betting agencies must've absolutely cleaned up on that last night

 

[CarterS]

There was a game, North v Melbourne Round 9, Tarryn Thomas

26

Tarryn Thomas

Age

24

Ht

190cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.0

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

5.7

4star

M

2.1

2star

T

3.3

5star

CL

0.9

3star

D

7.8

2star

K

4.0

1star

HB

3.8

3star

M

1.3

1star

T

3.2

4star

CL

0.2

2star

D

12.8

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

6.6

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

0.4

3star

got 3 votes but only got 18 touches and a goal. Simpkin and Cunnington got 38 and 37 touches each and Thomas wasnt even on the screen for the betting for that individual game. Would ahve been about 500 to get the 3 votes.

 

[Jugada]

Yes, but when you're combining multis and your odds of 20-1 become 10-1 due to a technicality... its a bit rough.
ie if you skipped the leg entirely, you'd get paid more than if you had it and it succeeded but in a tie with someone else.
Steel finishing top 5 but tie with someone else is a perfect example. He DID finish top 5..

Seems illogical to me. If nothing else it should just delete the leg from the earnings?

He didn't finish top 5. He tied for 5th and 6th spot.

Of course people don't like their odds getting halved but a two way tie is just as much a loss as it is a win

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Yeah it's garbage. Would be better off not throwing the odds in there. Betting agencies must've absolutely cleaned up on that last night

I will never forget a 14 leg multi I had on a few years back. it was around 30-1 picking basically every team leader.
I had 100 bucks on it just going for a hail mary (I only ever bet on Melbourne cup and Brownlow during the year).

It had 4 ties all of which were short odd favourites. Just a weird year. I think it was the year Judd was polling 3 votes from a 7 disposal game or something like that and missed alot through injury.

Long story short my $3k windfall halved 4 times and I won $190..... so less than 2-1 win.

If the legs were simply removed or not factored into the bet I'd have won something like $2500.

Seems fair doesn't it? How good is gambling.

I actually had no idea it worked that way before then. Its a harsh lesson when you find out all these little ways they get out of paying you out for a win.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Do Champion Data do the worst count every year?

Bont 10 off. Macrae 9 off. Oliver and Walsh don't exist. Only one player above 25.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

He didn't finish top 5. He tied for 5th and 6th spot.

Of course people don't like their odds getting halved but a two way tie is just as much a loss as it is a win

I still see this as being incorrect.
If you bet on Steele to finish top 5.. and he finishes top 5. I would expect to be paid out in full.

I mean I get why they do it, as the bookie now has an extra top 5 player to payout and would lose money. But I still don't think its overly fair.

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

I still see this as being incorrect.
If you bet on Steele to finish top 5.. and he finishes top 5. I would expect to be paid out in full.

I mean I get why they do it, as the bookie now has an extra top 5 player to payout and would lose money. But I still don't think its overly fair.

That’s their terms you agree upon though when entering into that wager. The terms are on their website.

 

[burge13]

If we're struggling to understand dead heat rules it's probably time to stop punting

 

[Ohh Ok]

Huge shout out to the regular posters on this forum. Love having a sounding board and a range of opinions.

Personally, a disappointing night with Steele letting me down. Seems the umps like to mix it up. Last year I was super skeptical about Steele polling well as he is such a defensive first midfielder but overall the umps didn't miss him. In fact, they gifted him a 3 and a 2 in 2020 where he didn't deserve it. Quite a reversal on that polling form with Steele hitting his lower limit on a night where all the fancies were hitting their higher limits.

Overall, the Wines @ $75 and Gawn top 20 and Boak top 10 in many multi's carried me to a moderate profit, but doesn't feel as good with the potential profit on Steele being pretty damn high.

Looking to next year, the initial value pick definitely seem to be Hopper. Quite a few on here were bullish about Hopper top 20 so good to see you should get some collect there. If anyone is going to be the next Dangerfield it's Jacob Hopper.

Yeh huge value in Hopper, have seen/heard a few of the giants players say he is the best midfielder at the club. Underrated player

 

[Ohh Ok]

Yeah it's garbage. Would be better off not throwing the odds in there. Betting agencies must've absolutely cleaned up on that last night

The way I see it though, is if 5 blokes draw for 10th it’s actually unfair on the bookies having to now pay out for 14 blokes in a bet that was stated “top 10” instead I see the five blokes that finished 10th become a fraction of that last spot. Each bloke is worth 20% of that spot.

It’s the same as if 4 guys came third in the pub footy tips competition, no way in hell would you expect the pub to dish up the full cash prize to 4 blokes, it’d be split evenly.

On the topic of this, TAB paid out at full for Jack Steele top 5 in one of my multis. Wasn’t expecting it, and won’t be upset if they make adjustments.

It’s why there isn’t as much value in taking the top 10/20 picks IMO unless it’s as a single as there is always a group of guys tied for that final spot each year.

 

[invisible_]

First year betting based on the machine learning model which i've showed snippets of throughout the season and happy to return just under $7k profit across the couple hundred bets placed over last 5 months, with the biggest winner being that Laird/Steele/Titch top 20 multi paying $40 shared here earlier in the year.

Lessons learned:

Back the good players in after slow starts. Large portion of profits came from Zerrett ($2), Steele ($2.25) and Titch ($3) top 20 multis placed around the time of the byes, and Boak above $2 even later than that. Have to factor in future polling expectations as well as what has happened so far in the year.

Gawn will poll a lot of 2s when you don't expect it. Only over-polled model expectations by 2, but the rounds in which he got them were bizarre.

Don't include anyone in everything. My model loved Macrae as much as anyone this year - but still only had him top 20 95% of the time. Luckily this mean't i wasn't too keen on including him as a top20 juicer in multis throughout the year at $1.10 type odds, so him drastically under-polling wasn't a night ruiner. Know for future to never let any individual player be a night-ruiner if they tank - no one is safe.

Lot of value to be found betting live if you can keep an updated count on the night and account for forecasting from that point on - After Bont went on his run in the middle of the year Wines drifted out to $7, and at this point my model had Wines still winning more than 50% of the time knowing how good his run home would be. Bont was always expected to get those votes so shouldn't have crunched in anywhere near as much as he did, as Wines himself was still over-polling his expectation at this stage.

Having quick access to % chance of events happening and therefore implied fair odds made it so much easier to identify value when markets were released, and this quick value hunting prior to markets moving is where almost all of the money was made.

Armaguard.

 

[Prochard123]

First year betting based on the machine learning model which i've showed snippets of throughout the season and happy to return just under $7k profit across the couple hundred bets placed over last 5 months, with the biggest winner being that Laird/Steele/Titch top 20 multi paying $40 shared here earlier in the year.

Lessons learned:

Back the good players in after slow starts. Large portion of profits came from Zerrett ($2), Steele ($2.25) and Titch ($3) top 20 multis placed around the time of the byes, and Boak above $2 even later than that. Have to factor in future polling expectations as well as what has happened so far in the year.

Gawn will poll a lot of 2s when you don't expect it. Only over-polled model expectations by 2, but the rounds in which he got them were bizarre.

Don't include anyone in everything. My model loved Macrae as much as anyone this year - but still only had him top 20 95% of the time. Luckily this mean't i wasn't too keen on including him as a top20 juicer in multis throughout the year at $1.10 type odds, so him drastically under-polling wasn't a night ruiner. Know for future to never let any individual player be a night-ruiner if they tank - no one is safe.

Lot of value to be made betting live if you can keep an updated count on the night and account for forecasting from that point on - After Bont went on his run in the middle of the year Wines drifted out to $7, and at this point my model had Wines still winning more than 50% of the time knowing how good his run home would be. Bont was always expected to get those votes so shouldn't have crunched in anywhere near as much as he did, as Wines himself was still over-polling his expectation at this stage.

Having quick access to % chance of events happening and therefore implied fair odds made it so much easier to identify value when markets were released, and this quick value hunting prior to markets moving is where almost all of the money was made.

Armaguard.

I actually think the exact opposite, I had Petracca and Steele listed as overpollers as they were strongly favoured by umpires in 2020.

But unfortuantely there was a clear correction in how umpires rated them, and they became underpollers.

A good player won't perpetually be an underpoller unlike you're a complete outside mid or play a different role.

 

[invisible_]

I actually think the exact opposite, I had Petracca and Steele listed as overpollers as they were strongly favoured by umpires in 2020.

But unfortuantely there was a clear correction in how umpires rated them, and they became underpollers.

A good player won't perpetually be an underpoller unlike you're a complete outside mid or play a different role.

What part of my post do you think the exact opposite of? I mentioned nothing about under/over pollers and in general think it's a bit of a trap to be so strongly tied to these narratives as they just end up changing every year.

 

[Hava Alle]

Do Champion Data do the worst count every year?

Bont 10 off. Macrae 9 off. Oliver and Walsh don't exist. Only one player above 25.

View attachment 1240709

CD factor in the highest ever recorded clanger game. Umpires don't.

 

[Tigers04]

How did mark mcgowan not get a mention also

 

[JuniorWatch]

CD factor in the highest ever recorded clanger game. Umpires don't.

So why bother factoring it in a Brownlow count. Call it the Champion Data medal

 

[Michael Scarn]

I still see this as being incorrect.
If you bet on Steele to finish top 5.. and he finishes top 5. I would expect to be paid out in full.

I mean I get why they do it, as the bookie now has an extra top 5 player to payout and would lose money. But I still don't think its overly fair.

Can't have 6 players finishing in the top 5 though - that's not how numbers work

 

[The_Steadier]

that's not how numbers work

I'll bet you $5 minus $6 that they do!

Or at least can.

https://www.mathsisfun.com/numbers/imaginary-numbers.html

 

[NYRB]

A #BYO bet which mentions (including Ties), is different to a bet for 'Top 5'

eg

1. A #BYO bet stating Steele (including Ties) for Top 5, Wines Winner, Oliver Top 3 (including Ties) is a different bet to

2. A straight up bet for Steele to finish Top 5 or if you include it in a multi with Top 5

the second option assumes that 'dead heat rules' apply and factored into account before you can back it. Just hope that clears it up.

 

[NYRB]

That award has to go to Marley Williams in 2018. 41DT/66SC for 3 votes.

AFL Match Statistics : North Melbourne defeats St Kilda at Marvel Stadium Round 2 Friday, 30th March 2018

North Melbourne defeats St Kilda at Marvel Stadium Round 2 Friday, 30th March 2018 AFL match statistics

www.footywire.com

Guess the common link between Marley Williams (in 2018) and Scott Draper (Rd 1, 2021) polling the 3 votes was?

Nathan Williamson was the umpire in both of those games.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Were there any howlers that people can recall?

I think I saw Walsh get 2 or 3 votes in a game they got demolished by the Pies (90 to 40 odd I think).

As soon as that happened I thought it could have been a Priddis style Brownlow.

If Carlton can actually put together a 50% season at some point, he'll win the brownlow by 6+votes.

 

[iluvparis]

Were there any howlers that people can recall?

I think I saw Walsh get 2 or 3 votes in a game they got demolished by the Pies (90 to 40 odd I think).

As soon as that happened I thought it could have been a Priddis style Brownlow.

If Carlton can actually put together a 50% season at some point, he'll win the brownlow by 6+votes.

I can't remember which game but he definitely got a BOG in a game where he had only 24 touches or so and didn't kick any goals

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Were there any howlers that people can recall?

I think I saw Walsh get 2 or 3 votes in a game they got demolished by the Pies (90 to 40 odd I think).

As soon as that happened I thought it could have been a Priddis style Brownlow.

If Carlton can actually put together a 50% season at some point, he'll win the brownlow by 6+votes.

This one only makes sense if you look at stats alone. 41 point loss and Adelaide get 5/6 votes? At least be consistent if you're gonna reward good games regardless of the result

 

[StringyDog]

I actually think the exact opposite, I had Petracca and Steele listed as overpollers as they were strongly favoured by umpires in 2020.

But unfortuantely there was a clear correction in how umpires rated them, and they became underpollers.

A good player won't perpetually be an underpoller unlike you're a complete outside mid or play a different role.

Think that's something to look at over summer as off top of head players who overpolled last year, Greenwood, Simpkin, Steele etc definately seemed to underpoll this year, coincidence or correction, needs a bit more analysis, could be something to factor for any overpollers this year in next year

 

[Billionaire Panda]

Think that's something to look at over summer as off top of head players who overpolled last year, Greenwood, Simpkin, Steele etc definately seemed to underpoll this year, coincidence or correction, needs a bit more analysis, could be something to factor for any overpollers this year in next year

And Fyfe seemed to underpoll last year coming off 2019