Trades 2021 Round 3 Fantasy Trades

[Jessbek]

I have a bit of a luxury trade available, any ideas? 1 trade left, $114k in the bank

Thinking H Jones to Cambell or Lazzaro? Would prefer to go for more points given I'm in the top 1,000 but can't think of anything else that would result in more points than what I have just suggested

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Yeah Jones or Scott to Lazarro would be what I'd be doing

 

[wahooo]

Martin or Brayshaw ?

47% ownership vs 4%

Such a hard one, Brayshaw has the role and will retain it. Especially with the juicy draw coming up, he excites me. One point to note is he's not a big goal kicker, in fact he's a terrible goal kicker so his score this week could have been a little inflated.

Dusty is just hard to trust, feels like any given week he could give you a 60.

For me, I'm trying to choose two of Brayshaw, Dunkley, Crisp or Martin.

If not two of those I could go Titch and Ridley.

 

[SM]

Oh God, do I hold after all?

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Oh God, do I hold after all?

Lol clutching at straws.

But surely Gaff can find a way to get into the game a bit more than he is. He's basically been a spectator to get to his 65 average.

If he can just pull one of his 10 fingers out he'll be a 80-90 with ease. and i'd just about take that for the moment just to stop the hurting (and he'd only lose ~30k this week which I can live with while I fix other things and hope he turns it around).

I think I'm keeping him unfortunately. As the only other player I'd trade him too right now is Mitchell and he's a possibility of getting the tag this week.
Would be a typical fantasy move to sideways a premo and have the traded out player outscore your trade-in.

 

[TedDougChris]

This week is even more of a challenge, due to the structure/timing of games.

2 games will be complete, before we know the Saturday sides - which will reveal less teams (due to the extra game on Friday) and the Saturday evening reveal does the same thing - reveals less teams due to the Monday game....

 

[SM]

Lol clutching at straws.

But surely Gaff can find a way to get into the game a bit more than he is. He's basically been a spectator to get to his 65 average.

If he can just pull one of his 10 fingers out he'll be a 80-90 with ease. and i'd just about take that for the moment just to stop the hurting (and he'd only lose ~30k this week which I can live with while I fix other things and hope he turns it around).

I think I'm keeping him unfortunately. As the only other player I'd trade him too right now is Mitchell and he's a possibility of getting the tag this week.
Would be a typical fantasy move to sideways a premo and have the traded out player outscore your trade-in.

It's such a sliding doors for me. Get Brayshaw in and tread water essentially then try to get Gaff back in a month when he's pumping out 130s or hold but get a mid pricer in who might be shit and gaff continues to flop while Brayshaw explodes.

 

[TedDougChris]

It's such a sliding doors for me. Get Brayshaw in and tread water essentially then try to get Gaff back in a month when he's pumping out 130s or hold but get a mid pricer in who might be sh*t and gaff continues to flop while Brayshaw explodes.

It's always a tough one. I think I swapped Bont to Boak - around this time last year during the same scenario. He was leaking cash, Boak was on fire. It worked - but then you struggle to get them back.

Gaff has a BE of 159 and an average of 65 - he'll need to play three matches this week to make you any coin.

 

[MarvinStraighte]

Has anyone been watching Bontempelli closely? His CBAs look good, but I'm hesitant to pick him if he's drifting forward all the time, and Bevo is liable to change his role at the drop of a hat. His fixture looks nice, though: North, Brisbane, Gold Coast and GWS.

 

[mitchzz]

God damn Heppell

Atleast if he doesn't get up this week I can field Jordon

Still regretting picking him at the start of the season

 

[TedDougChris]

Has anyone been watching Bontempelli closely? His CBAs look good, but I'm hesitant to pick him if he's drifting forward all the time, and Bevo is liable to change his role at the drop of a hat. His fixture looks nice, though: North, Brisbane, Gold Coast and GWS.

Playing mostly midfield and drifting all over the park. Will still spend time forward, but is not fixed in a KPP role.

 

[TedDougChris]

Is it too early to cull a rookie ???

T Powell to Lazarro would let me go Stephenson to Brayshay (the good one).

Means my mids would be: Macrae, Merret, Brayshaw, Walsh, Taranto, Gulden, Jordan, Berry: A Scott Lazarro.

 

[MarvinStraighte]

Playing mostly midfield and drifting all over the park. Will still spend time forward, but is not fixed in a KPP role.

Thanks! It's between him, Brayshaw and Titch at the moment.

 

[TedDougChris]

Thanks! It's between him, Brayshaw and Titch at the moment.

He took a goal saving mark in defence at one point last week, after we lost the ball from the centre clearance, he seems to be covering the ground well from a viewing on TV perspective - but I haven't looked at heatmaps etc. At the moment Bruce and Naughton are sort of working, so he's not required as a full time forward.

 

[Neale4brownlow]

It's such a sliding doors for me. Get Brayshaw in and tread water essentially then try to get Gaff back in a month when he's pumping out 130s or hold but get a mid pricer in who might be sh*t and gaff continues to flop while Brayshaw explodes.

Yeah, the problem is in these sliding door moments I feel like I'm going to make the wrong decision regardless of what I do.. so I generally just wait one more week for a little more information haha.

 

[TedDougChris]

Yeah, the problem is in these sliding door moments I feel like I'm going to make the wrong decision regardless of what I do.. so I generally just wait one more week for a little more information haha.

 

[Corby_4]

Hmm might just hold Gaff.
Caldwell > Dunks
Stevo > Hardwick via Fanta dpp
Stevo in and out seems a waste but live and learn.

 

[wahooo]

Oh God, do I hold after all?

To me this 'hold underperforming premos' just buys into the sunk cost fallacy. The truth is, you can still move Gaffy sideways to a premo like Dunks, Dusty, Brayshaw or Crisp (heck you could take a punt on Mcgrath or Parish with all their outs) and make some modest money.

Even if Gaff performs well, you lose money, his break even is 159. Most of those other options are making money and are all likely to churn out consistent tons. Some may not have the ceiling of Gaff but they'll make you money in the short term.

Yeah, a sideways trade may well be a 'wasted trade' but if it makes you $60k as opposed to losing $60k, I know I'd do it. Just move him on and if he performs later you can get him cheap like everyone else.

Gaff hasn't even looked capable of scoring 80.

 

[mezaire]

It's such a sliding doors for me. Get Brayshaw in and tread water essentially then try to get Gaff back in a month when he's pumping out 130s or hold but get a mid pricer in who might be sh*t and gaff continues to flop while Brayshaw explodes.

I'm trading and this is why...
If I trade him my midfield is set until rd6 with 5 premiums and 3 good rooks. Barring injury I won't touch it.
I can then concentrate on my fwd's and def's where there is value and more rookie's coming through.
My aim my round 6 is to have 6-7 mid and fwd keepers, I currently have 4-5.

Then once Gulden, Hind and Atkins get DPP, I can move them to where I want and at the same time some rookies will have maxed out for down/ups!!

 

[SM]

I'm trading and this is why...
If I trade him my midfield is set until rd6 with 5 premiums and 3 good rooks. Barring injury I won't touch it.
I can then concentrate on my fwd's and def's where there is value and more rookie's coming through.
My aim my round 6 is to have 6-7 mid and fwd keepers, I currently have 4-5.

Then once Gulden, Hind and Atkins get DPP, I can move them to where I want and at the same time some rookies will have maxed out for down/ups!!

I'm pretty similar although I have Dow in my midfield for this week so will probably be upgrading him next week.

 

[DynamiteDons]

Bont and Markov
or
Brayshaw and Rozee

 

[TedDougChris]

Bont and Markov
or
Brayshaw and Rozee

Brayshaw and Markov...

 

[Neale4brownlow]

To me this 'hold underperforming premos' just buys into the sunk cost fallacy. The truth is, you can still move Gaffy sideways to a premo like Dunks, Dusty, Brayshaw or Crisp (heck you could take a punt on Mcgrath or Parish with all their outs) and make some modest money.

Even if Gaff performs well, you lose money, his break even is 159. Most of those other options are making money and are all likely to churn out consistent tons. Some may not have the ceiling of Gaff but they'll make you money in the short term.

Yeah, a sideways trade may well be a 'wasted trade' but if it makes you $60k as opposed to losing $60k, I know I'd do it. Just move him on and if he performs later you can get him cheap like everyone else.

Gaff hasn't even looked capable of scoring 80.

I'm in a no-win scenario.

Trade Gaff to prevent the $50k loss.
Trade Tyson to have a $50 gain.

Either way I'm nett $0.

As such I'm probably better off trading Tyson and see what happens with Gaff for one more.

The thing with Gaff is, as much as I hate the little guy right now, if he drops to ~ $600k everyone is going to trade him in at the first glimmer of some form (anyone who says they won't is a lier! It will 100% happen).

So by trading him out at ~$750k. I'm either taking that $150k loss, then have to trade him back later, or I be stubborn and don't trade him back in later.

Alternatively but hopefully less likely is that Gaff is the Angus spud Brayshaw of 2021.

So the 4 possible scenarios are:
Option A) Spend 2x trades trading him out now, then back in later for ~$600k when he posts something decent. Saves you $150k, might earn you a few more points but costs you 2x trades.
Option B) Spend 1x trade out now, take the $70k loss on the chin and don't get him back later regardless of form;
Option C) Spend 0 trades and ride it out. Everyone else jumps on later and gets him for up to $200-$250k cheaper than you paid.
Option D) Spend 0 trades and ride it out. He averages 70 for the year and you lose $300-$400k before finally trading him out and crying in the corner.

Not any particularly great options there haha.

 

[saintkildaman]

Initial round 3 trades:
Gaff > Gresham
Caldwell > Campbell
403k left over following the downgrades.

Considered going Gaff to Brayshaw/TKelly/Oliver however been bullish on the Gresh this year, after being in my team all preseason and got cold feet and swapped with Rowell on the eve of round 1, cost me big time. Think the Gresh prince can go 90+ and may even get DPP status.

The downgrades and extra allow me to suss out Hind/Stephenson one more week prior to getting a premo (Dunks/Martin/Butters or even bring Danger back). Ranked inside the top 1,500 after round 1, then out to 4,700 this week so these risky downgrades could really cost me.

 

[bl4ke]

Isaac Smith

7

Isaac Smith

Age

36

Ht

188cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

8.4

5star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.7

4star

D

19.4

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.3

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.5

3star

CL

1.3

4star

D

19.2

5star

K

10.6

4star

HB

8.6

5star

M

7.6

5star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.6

3star

anyone?

 

[Neale4brownlow]

Initial round 3 trades:
Gaff > Gresham
Caldwell > Campbell
403k left over following the downgrades.

Considered going Gaff to Brayshaw/TKelly/Oliver however been bullish on the Gresh this year, after being in my team all preseason and got cold feet and swapped with Rowell on the eve of round 1, cost me big time. Think the Gresh prince can go 90+ and may even get DPP status.

The downgrades and extra allow me to suss out Hind/Stephenson one more week prior to getting a premo (Dunks/Martin/Butters or even bring Danger back). Ranked inside the top 1,500 after round 1, then out to 4,700 this week so these risky downgrades could really cost me.

I wouldn't get Gresham. Brouch back this week will upset the apple cart and who knows where they all get shufffled around and who it effects the most.
I'd go with the masses on Brayshaw.