AFL 2022 AFL Round 16

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POSTING OF BETS AND RESULTS AFTER THE FACT WILL NOT BE TOLERATED ANYMORE!!
ANYONE WHO DOES IT WILL BE GIVEN A HOLIDAY.

CONSIDER THIS EVERYONE'S FINAL WARNING!!!!!!
 
NYRB said:
A 33-38 km/hr wind advantage in old footy terminology is a 2 and a half to 3 goal advantage to one side a quarter.

So it might be something to keep in mind of for the people that bet certain quarters etc.
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yeh this total has actually gone up I think from 139.5 to 142.5 in some places.. I guess some games are just continuous and fast paced in the wet and scores still happen, especially these two attacking teams?? I remember the Freo vs Syd one out west I think last year going like 170-180 in the wet after they had a riduculous 60 to 70 point first quarter, the coin toss definately worth keeping an eye on and having tabs open for 1st qtr markets or race to 15/20 if there is a big wind... normally works for the tassie games
 
I actually don't mind Max King fantasy spread 59 he's due for a bounce back and I'm sure a better gameplan would of been discussed this week to aid him whether that be him coming higher up to get some more touches... Carlton are still undermanned down back and Saints lineup looks a lot more attacking, all he needs is to take a grab early and some good ball movement and he could go ok... bit of upside here in this bet I feel.. but he could also score in the 30's if he does nothing LOL
 

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kicksome said:
Full Degen bet train here

Sam Walsh
ATG $3.35 SB
2+ $17 SB
3+ $67 PB

Kicked 3.0 against saints last year. Every now and then he gets a few shots on goal.
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I'm not tailing because I have already maxxed my units for this weekend but I like this bet, hope it salutes 👍
 
Degoey 5+@$181 SB

The Degoaly Train is primed boyos. Acclimatised to the moist tropical conditions. Probably sits forward a bit first game back. Point to prove. Value town
 
Man of leisure said:
Degoey 5+@$181 SB

The Degoaly Train is primed boyos. Acclimatised to the moist tropical conditions. Probably sits forward a bit first game back. Point to prove. Value town
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In a match against the Suns (favourites) in 100% chance of rain?

You've come to the right place, my fellow degen.

freaks-one-of-us.gif
 
I rekon there are spots where the PB Spread markets can be exploited and abused. Take this GWS/Hawks game for e.g., with that amount of rain it would be pretty hard for either side to gain a significant lead in the match.
1656642800398.png

It's risky, but taking the U26 margin and banking on either side winning by 25 or less seems a good bet imo. I don't think the algorithms built into this market are accounting for the extremely low TP set... this is something PB don't do very well.
 

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The forecast does indeed look horrific, but it seems Haynes will play forward again if anyone still wants to back a goalscorer in this slopfest.

Can only see him on 365 atm where he is $2.5 for a goal.

www.afl.com.au

McVeigh throws hat in the ring for top job, star's future clouded

Mark McVeigh will present to the board in the next month as he seeks the Giants' coaching job on a full-time basis
www.afl.com.au www.afl.com.au

All-Australian defender Nick Haynes trained as a forward in the club's final session before Sunday's clash in a strong sign that he'll line up there again as he did against Collingwood, with Harry Himmelberg set to continue his role in defence.
Click to expand...
 
Membrey 2+
King 2+
McKay 2+
Durdin ATG
Newnes 15+D
Fisher 15+D @9.50 SB bet return if one fails.

Adelaide pick you own line +38.5
Fogarty 2+
Spargo 2+ @19.75 SB bet return if one fails.

Multi
Membrey 2+
McDonald 2+
Fogarty 2+
Close 2+ @42.06 SB

Bonus bet multi
Saints Win
Stringer ATG
McDonald ATG
Papley ATG
Perkins ATG
Fogarty ATG
Rachele ATG
Spargo ATG @25.92 SB

Bonus bet multi
Stringer ATG
McDonald ATG
Papley ATG
Perkins ATG
Fogarty ATG
Rachele ATG
Spargo ATG @10.54
 
Had the day off today so what better way to spend it than to dig through the markets. Some of these bets might have had the odds shift or change but hopefully the analysis or idea can help you out in some way.

Carlton vs St Kilda
3u - Carlton -4.5 (1st Half) - $1.90 - SB
Backing the trend here, Carlton have covered in 10/13 games this season. Saints are also a much stronger second half side, this shows with them only covering +4.5 at half time in 5/13 games this year.

3u - Newman 20+ disposals - $1.85 - Dabble
This is multied with Carlton +5.5 1st half goals, ties in with the half play and would require a huge upset for this leg to lose. Newman has cleared in 9/14 games this season and 4/5 since Williams has been out of the side. A quiet first half last week holding him back from it being 5/5. Match up ties in well as the Saints are currently one of the best match ups in the comp for opposition defenders.

2.5u - Docherty 30+ disposals - $2.15 - 365
Docherty has cleared this in 8/14 games this season, but probably a little more importantly 4/5 games since Williams has been out injured. The loss coming against Sydney who have been an ultra tough match up. Great match up tonight for the Doc.

2.5u - Sinclair under 28.5 disposals - $1.77 - PointsBet
Has been posting some career best numbers this season but has still gone under this total in more than half his games (8/14). His form has been so good this season it earned himself a tag from Sydney last week. Now he might not get a tag this week, but Carlton are giving up the second least disposals in the comp. Only 3 defenders have managed to clear this total against the Blues this season.

2u - Honey AGS - $2.10 - 365
Will be playing as a pressure forward and only a pressure forward. Has 6 goals from 7 AFL games but will be looking to hit the scoreboard to help cement his spot. Happy to grab at + money.

Adelaide vs Melbourne
2u - Jones 15+ disposals - $2.40 - TAB
This price factors in two misses that he has had this season when being the sub. Has hit 15+ in 5/10 full games this season. Has also had 2 games as sub with 6 (24% TOG) and 7 (31% TOG) where he more than likely would’ve reached 15+ with a full slate of time on ground. Was also sent back to the SANFL this season for 2 consecutive 20+ disposal games. Gets a good match up with the Dees who rank strongly for opposition defenders.

3u - O’Brien 15+ disposals - $1.80 - Ladbrokes
1u - O’Brien 20+ disposals - $6 - TAB
Since being dropped to the SANFL, ROB has returned to the AFL with disposal counts of 28, 9 (extremely wet weather), 15, and 12 (against Goldstein and Xerri). Tomorrow he faces Luke Jackson that last week tucked alone and allows The Big O to record a career high 23 disposals. Currently, there are rumours that Jackson might be dropped due to an injury, and that Weidrman and Mitch Brown are going to ruck for Melbourne, this would also be a big plus for this bet.

Geelong vs North Melbourne
3u - Menegola 20+ disposals - $1.80 - TopSport
Is a consistent 20+ disposal player, hit 20+ in 19/23 games last year. Tidy spot for him against North who give up the 4th most disposals in the comp, and probably more important for this bet, the 2nd most uncontested disposals in the comp.

3u - Atkins 20+ disposals - $1.90 - TopSport
Been one of the main men in the midfield the last three weeks and now that Selwood is out as well, his role strengthens. Soft match up against North.

4u - Zach Guthrie 15+ disposals - $1.70 - TAB/SB
Has worked on his tank and is now spending more time on ground than he has previously in his career. Simple play this one, has cleared in 7/9 games this year and should see a bit more of it with Stewart out the side.

2u - Miers AGS - $1.85 - TAB
Hasn’t been hitting the scoreboard as often this season, but as 11 goal favourites and expected to kick over 100 points you’d expect him to pop and get an opportunity or two.

Gold Coast vs Collingwood
1.5u - Markov 16+ disposals - $1.73 - Dabble
1u - Markov 19+ disposals - $3.25 - Dabble
Need to play it as a SGM with 13+. Got the Gold Coast defenders wrong last week. Markov took on the main kick in role and was able to rack up 22 disposals. Has hit 17+ in 4/7 this year and 19+ in 3/7. Few extra disposals from kick ins should help his cause.

2.5u - Burgess 0 goals - $1.72 - TopSport
Burgess is not a big goal kicker and is really only just in the side. Potentially going to be played in wet conditions, and if not should be some moisture around to make it tricky. Burgess isn’t athletic as say a Chol so should find it hard to create something else.

GWS vs Hawthorn
5u - Either team under 39.5, total under 157.5 - $1.77 - Ladbrokes
Correlated SGM. 100-150mm of rain expected in Sydney in Sunday, will be played in a swimming pool. As a result I’m expecting a really low scoring grind. Neither team should be able to get out to too big of a lead in this one.
 
Minimal bets from me this weekend unless something hits early, this season has been so damaging and caught up to me that I have legit gone broke for the first time since the 2020 grand final. Hanging out for this tax return like a proper degen to do it all again in what’s hopefully a nice close to the season for us to make up some lost ground
 
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