AFL 2022 AFL Round 16

[balmainforever]

POSTING OF BETS AND RESULTS AFTER THE FACT WILL NOT BE TOLERATED ANYMORE!!
ANYONE WHO DOES IT WILL BE GIVEN A HOLIDAY.

CONSIDER THIS EVERYONE'S FINAL WARNING!!!!!!

 

[Jugada]

Hawks 0-39 / GWS 0-39 @ 401
Hawks 0-39 / GWS 40-59 @ 41
Hawks 40-59 / GWS 0-39 @ 71

Let it rain

Adding

Total score 119 or less @ 6.50

 

[Its not the coach]

Minimal bets from me this weekend unless something hits early, this season has been so damaging and caught up to me that I have legit gone broke for the first time since the 2020 grand final. Hanging out for this tax return like a proper degen to do it all again in what’s hopefully a nice close to the season for us to make up some lost ground

I'm hearing ya, Could have been so much better if not for a few balls grazing the inside of the post, And a couple of downright incompetent kicking at goal.

 

[BloodRet]

I'm hearing ya, Could have been so much better if not for a few balls grazing the inside of the post, And a couple of downright incompetent kicking at goal.

It’s been a frustrating one mate for sure

 

[Johanpetro]

The forecast does indeed look horrific, but it seems Haynes will play forward again if anyone still wants to back a goalscorer in this slopfest.

Can only see him on 365 atm where he is $2.5 for a goal.

McVeigh throws hat in the ring for top job, star's future clouded

Mark McVeigh will present to the board in the next month as he seeks the Giants' coaching job on a full-time basis

www.afl.com.au

Still $2.55 a goal. The torrential rain putting people off? Or the fact he’s a backman turned spud forward? Still, $2.55 for a forward to kick a goal is value

 

[Jugada]

Goal scorer bets are nearly always terrible bet types in these conditions. Very few goals to actually go around and you don't get any extra juice from the books because of it

 

[Selim]

Higgins 3,4,5 @5.55, 15,46, 47

Honey 2,3 @5.74, 20

Durdin 2,3 @5.87, 18.94

Butler 2,3,4 @4, 12.50, 49

 

[Man of leisure]

Had the day off today so what better way to spend it than to dig through the markets. Some of these bets might have had the odds shift or change but hopefully the analysis or idea can help you out in some way.

Carlton vs St Kilda
3u - Carlton -4.5 (1st Half) - $1.90 - SB
Backing the trend here, Carlton have covered in 10/13 games this season. Saints are also a much stronger second half side, this shows with them only covering +4.5 at half time in 5/13 games this year.

3u - Newman 20+ disposals - $1.85 - Dabble
This is multied with Carlton +5.5 1st half goals, ties in with the half play and would require a huge upset for this leg to lose. Newman has cleared in 9/14 games this season and 4/5 since Williams has been out of the side. A quiet first half last week holding him back from it being 5/5. Match up ties in well as the Saints are currently one of the best match ups in the comp for opposition defenders.

2.5u - Docherty 30+ disposals - $2.15 - 365
Docherty has cleared this in 8/14 games this season, but probably a little more importantly 4/5 games since Williams has been out injured. The loss coming against Sydney who have been an ultra tough match up. Great match up tonight for the Doc.

2.5u - Sinclair under 28.5 disposals - $1.77 - PointsBet
Has been posting some career best numbers this season but has still gone under this total in more than half his games (8/14). His form has been so good this season it earned himself a tag from Sydney last week. Now he might not get a tag this week, but Carlton are giving up the second least disposals in the comp. Only 3 defenders have managed to clear this total against the Blues this season.

2u - Honey AGS - $2.10 - 365
Will be playing as a pressure forward and only a pressure forward. Has 6 goals from 7 AFL games but will be looking to hit the scoreboard to help cement his spot. Happy to grab at + money.

Adelaide vs Melbourne
2u - Jones 15+ disposals - $2.40 - TAB
This price factors in two misses that he has had this season when being the sub. Has hit 15+ in 5/10 full games this season. Has also had 2 games as sub with 6 (24% TOG) and 7 (31% TOG) where he more than likely would’ve reached 15+ with a full slate of time on ground. Was also sent back to the SANFL this season for 2 consecutive 20+ disposal games. Gets a good match up with the Dees who rank strongly for opposition defenders.

3u - O’Brien 15+ disposals - $1.80 - Ladbrokes
1u - O’Brien 20+ disposals - $6 - TAB
Since being dropped to the SANFL, ROB has returned to the AFL with disposal counts of 28, 9 (extremely wet weather), 15, and 12 (against Goldstein and Xerri). Tomorrow he faces Luke Jackson that last week tucked alone and allows The Big O to record a career high 23 disposals. Currently, there are rumours that Jackson might be dropped due to an injury, and that Weidrman and Mitch Brown are going to ruck for Melbourne, this would also be a big plus for this bet.

Geelong vs North Melbourne
3u - Menegola 20+ disposals - $1.80 - TopSport
Is a consistent 20+ disposal player, hit 20+ in 19/23 games last year. Tidy spot for him against North who give up the 4th most disposals in the comp, and probably more important for this bet, the 2nd most uncontested disposals in the comp.

3u - Atkins 20+ disposals - $1.90 - TopSport
Been one of the main men in the midfield the last three weeks and now that Selwood is out as well, his role strengthens. Soft match up against North.

4u - Zach Guthrie 15+ disposals - $1.70 - TAB/SB
Has worked on his tank and is now spending more time on ground than he has previously in his career. Simple play this one, has cleared in 7/9 games this year and should see a bit more of it with Stewart out the side.

2u - Miers AGS - $1.85 - TAB
Hasn’t been hitting the scoreboard as often this season, but as 11 goal favourites and expected to kick over 100 points you’d expect him to pop and get an opportunity or two.

Gold Coast vs Collingwood
1.5u - Markov 16+ disposals - $1.73 - Dabble
1u - Markov 19+ disposals - $3.25 - Dabble
Need to play it as a SGM with 13+. Got the Gold Coast defenders wrong last week. Markov took on the main kick in role and was able to rack up 22 disposals. Has hit 17+ in 4/7 this year and 19+ in 3/7. Few extra disposals from kick ins should help his cause.

2.5u - Burgess 0 goals - $1.72 - TopSport
Burgess is not a big goal kicker and is really only just in the side. Potentially going to be played in wet conditions, and if not should be some moisture around to make it tricky. Burgess isn’t athletic as say a Chol so should find it hard to create something else.

GWS vs Hawthorn
5u - Either team under 39.5, total under 157.5 - $1.77 - Ladbrokes
Correlated SGM. 100-150mm of rain expected in Sydney in Sunday, will be played in a swimming pool. As a result I’m expecting a really low scoring grind. Neither team should be able to get out to too big of a lead in this one.

I like a lot of these tips but I don’t get that last one at all for 5 units. Less than even money for AFLW scores, 2 of the more attacking sides in the comp, would have to be a tsunami

 

[Ohh Ok]

I like a lot of these tips but I don’t get that last one at all for 5 units. Less than even money for AFLW scores, 2 of the more attacking sides in the comp, would have to be a tsunami

It's getting close to a Tsunami. 100-150mm predicted.

 

[tangolikelama]

Alright lets fire up campaigners - i'm feeling good

 

[balmainforever]

Followed the honey honey train 2+ up to 5+

 

[BloodRet]

Ryder 2 butler 2 membrey 2 @50 pb

Curnow 3 mckay 2 Ryder butler @11.8

Gresham 2 honey/Logan 3 papley 2/spargo 2/Rohan 3 @2223

 

[GROTTO]

Followed the honey honey train 2+ up to 5+

I just purchased some Honey only 3 jars.

 

[Ohh Ok]

I just purchased some Honey only 3 jars.

 

[_ASP3X]

1.5u @ $2.00 - Carlton -8.5
1.5u @ $2.00 - Over 165.5
1u @ $3.70 - 1H Carlton -4.5 & Over 81.5

I like Carlton tonight to beat an all over the place St Kilda team. If Carlton want to be pushing for a top 4 spot (which I think they can) they need to be beating teams like St Kilda who probably won't make the 8. Always like the over at Marvel too and I don't mind the 1H bet, as Carlton are a pretty good first half team.

 

[tangolikelama]

100 @11.45

Carlton h2h
Crippa AGS
Ryda AGS
Higgins 2+
Charlie 3+

 

[GROTTO]

Honey....




Fun Facts with Grotto

There was 2 jars of Honey the last time the Blues played the Saints in 2021.

 

[KENT2008]

Does anybody know if there is a bookie that offers a team to kick more behinds than goals and vice versa?

 

[_ASP3X]

Minimal bets from me this weekend unless something hits early, this season has been so damaging and caught up to me that I have legit gone broke for the first time since the 2020 grand final. Hanging out for this tax return like a proper degen to do it all again in what’s hopefully a nice close to the season for us to make up some lost ground

Been a tough start to the season. I certainly am in the red so far this AFL season, will be happy if I just break even by September to be honest. The degen bets and AGS and multi bets sure aren't the best way to make money but they certainly are the most fun. Nothing like hitting a nice multi at 20-1.

For me, I'm starting a new betting spreadsheet for this financial year today so going to try to make less degen bets and stick to the meat and potatoes - sides, totals, lines. Oh and if anyone was wondering (probs not) I do financial year tracking because my highest volume of betting is by far soccer and that season runs from August to May so it just makes more sense for me. Can't wait to bet on the world cup later this year!

 

[toenail11]

Curnow 3
Higgins 3
King 2
McKay 2
@13.35

McKay 4
Curnow 4
@12.50

Honey 2-5
Durdin 2-5

 

[GROTTO]

Minimal bets from me this weekend unless something hits early, this season has been so damaging and caught up to me that I have legit gone broke for the first time since the 2020 grand final. Hanging out for this tax return like a proper degen to do it all again in what’s hopefully a nice close to the season for us to make up some lost ground

Its bloody frustrating at times, Ive seen you on here, sometimes you get so close to a Hail Mary too.

Some of these campaigners shots for a goal, deserve a kick up their arse.

I still cant get over McDonald spraying the ball in the last two minutes v Carlton having kicked 3 already, I had a sweet 30u return for 4+ and he kicks 2pts with two set shots.

Hang in there champ.

 

[burge13]

Carlton 1.77 at BF. Sorry Blues supporters, Im on! 2u

 

[MinhBui31101991]

Long term reader, thought I would contribute.

I am going to fade Browny's SGM. For Carlton v Saints he had: Carlton (-10.5) + Hewett (25+) + Curnow (3+), at $3.30

So my SGM is: Saints (+9.5) + Hewett (under 27.5) at $3.10 (SB).

There's no fade for Curnow under 3 goals so there would only be two legs. Interested to see how it goes.

 

[GROTTO]

Been a tough start to the season. I certainly am in the red so far this AFL season, will be happy if I just break even by September to be honest. The degen bets and AGS and multi bets sure aren't the best way to make money but they certainly are the most fun. Nothing like hitting a nice multi at 20-1.

For me, I'm starting a new betting spreadsheet for this financial year today so going to try to make less degen bets and stick to the meat and potatoes - sides, totals, lines. Oh and if anyone was wondering (probs not) I do financial year tracking because my highest volume of betting is by far soccer and that season runs from August to May so it just makes more sense for me. Can't wait to bet on the world cup later this year!

As a fellow degenerate myself I love your philosophy.

New Financial Year.

Everyone on this board starts at zero balance.

 

[Selim]

Gresham 2+
Silvagni 2+
Higgins 2 +
Fisher 1
Marshall 1
Motlop 1
@228

 

[Ohh Ok]

2.5u - Marshall AGS - $1.77 - 365
Stretching the undersized Carlton defence is going to be crucial if the Saints want any chance of winning tonight. With Ryder playing, Marshall is able to head forward more often. This season Marshall has kicked a goal in 6/8 that Ryder has played.