AFL 2022 AFL Round 18

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Ned Reeves could dominate the ruck against finally weaker opponents (26 hitouts v O'Brien). Sam Mitchell has not relied on Mitchell, O'Meara, Wingard etc. So don't think he relies on McEvoy either.

$2.80 for 70
$5 for 80
$11 for 90
$21 for 100

He's gone 80+ 3 times in 15 games but never been better poised for a huge game. There's easily 40 hitouts on offer for him, if not more if Mitchell gives him the ruck work, and he just needs to do some basic around the ground work, if he bobs up for a goal the 100 is a chance.
 
HTPunter said:
Ned Reeves could dominate the ruck against finally weaker opponents (26 hitouts v O'Brien). Sam Mitchell has not relied on Mitchell, O'Meara, Wingard etc. So don't think he relies on McEvoy either.

$2.80 for 70
$5 for 80
$11 for 90
$21 for 100

He's gone 80+ 3 times in 15 games but never been better poised for a huge game. There's easily 40 hitouts on offer for him, if not more if Mitchell gives him the ruck work, and he just needs to do some basic around the ground work, if he bobs up for a goal the 100 is a chance.
Click to expand...
Tailed this, like it a lot. I bet to break even on 70+ and make profit from 80+ onwards.
 

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Reckon there's value in Dunkley for multiples tonight. Ohh Ok touched on it earlier in the week but there's a definite change in role with Smith in the side allowing him to play forward more:

Round 6-11 36% CBAs, 10 goals from 6 games
Round 14-17 58% CBAs, 3 goals from 4 games

2+ $7 PB
3+ $26 TAB
4+ $83.50 SB trick
 
Ohh Ok said:
2.5u - Marshall AGS - $2.05 - 365
When Ryder is playing Marshall goes to 35.2% of CBAs vs 72.2% when he misses. Stretching the undersized Bulldogs defence that concede a high number of marks inside their defensive 50 will be key for the Saints if they look to win this one. With Ryder playing, Marshall is able to head forward more often.

2u - Dunkley AGS - $2.05 - 365
Has kicked goals in 8/16 games this year, but with Bailey Smith expected back this week Dunkley’s role is likely to change a little. With Smith in the side Dunkley is forced to play forward a touch more which is evidenced by his 13 scoring shots when the two have shared the field.


2u - McCreery AGS - $1.90 - Ladbrokes
Has kicked goals in 8/12 games this year and as a young player should be looking to get on on the board today in his home state. Will only play forward so should find himself an opportunity.


1.5u - Clarke AGS - $2.65 - Ladbrokes
Is being implemented as a forward tagger which has resulted in him kicking 3 goals in his last two games.


3u - Dylan Moore 20+ disposals - $1.80 - TAB
1u - Dylan Moore 25+ disposals - $4.33 - Dabble
Play Moore as a SGM with 20+. Played a big slate of midfield minutes on the weekend which equated to Moore getting 29 disposals. Should get another crack at it as was one of Hawthorn’s best on.


2.5u - Powell-Pepper AGS - $1.87 - 365
Is probably in the top 3 for Port’s BnF this season, has been playing a crucial forward pressure role week in, week out. Has goals in 11/16 games this season.


2.5u - Shiel 25+ disposals - $2.20 - 365/SB
Has shown significant improvement since the bye going 25+ in 4/5. During this patch Parish has missed or been subbed out of all but one game, the one Shiel went under in. With Parish out again, I’m keen to get at Shiel.



On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
Click to expand...
Thanks for the tips mate, been following this thread for a few weeks as I've started to get into punting. First time posting, and I've been intrigued on some of the terms, what does the 2.u, 2.5u, 3u refer to? apologies for the newb question haha
 
4u - Richards over 16.5 disposals - $1.70 - TopSport
As expected, Richards jumped into the role of Daniel last week and picked up 21 disposals and a few kick ins. Is 6/8 since round 7 (excluding injured game) which has shown his natural progression and growing trust in the role he’s playing.

2.5u - Steele over 27.5 disposals - $1.87 - 365/SB
Steele has gone over in 2/3 games since returning from injury and has been looking the goods. Has started each game strong and had quieter second halves. Should have a bit of match fitness under his belt and looking to finish the season strong and put his team on his back as they look to make a massive step towards finals.

2.5u - Treloar under 27.5 disposals - $1.83 - SB
Total has crept up since Smith has been out of the side and hasn’t adjusted to him being back in. With Smith back in the mid rotation grows and there are more mouths to feed meaning less time around the ball for Treloar. Has gone under in 10/16 games this season but 8/10 with Smith in the side.

2.5u - Membrey over 13.5 disposals - $1.77 - TopSport
Is 6/6 vs the Bulldogs for his career on this number (2020 scaled up for reduced quarters) and 10/16 for this number on the season. The Dogs are generally a strong match up for the key forwards due to the height they lack. With Membrey, King and the combination of Ryder/Marshall the Saints will look to take advantage of their opponents and stretch them around the ground


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Ohh Ok said:
2.5u - Treloar under 27.5 disposals - $1.83 - SB
Total has crept up since Smith has been out of the side and hasn’t adjusted to him being back in. With Smith back in the mid rotation grows and there are more mouths to feed meaning less time around the ball for Treloar. Has gone under in 10/16 games this season but 8/10 with Smith in the side.
Click to expand...
Treloar was Bevo'd last week and played in defense and did not see a single CBA, Smith in possibly has zero affect on Treloar
 
I have a Sportsbet Power Price for 2+ Goals on Mason Wood.

Mason Wood to score 2+ Goals @ 13.60. Been labelled at Half forward and at those odds its bit too big for me. (Around $7 considered to be fair for me)

Also taken 3+ @ 46/1 (around 25/1 considered fair for me)

And 4+ @ 234/1 (happy to take the SB trick on this)

Id imagine Keath and Gardner get the best 2 forwards in Membrey and Max King. It looks like Saints are potentially playing with 4 bigs up forward (Membrey/Max King/ Mason Wood and a 4th as a floating ruck between Marshall /Ryder)
 
and why not a bit of a hail mary?

Mason Wood to kick 5+ Goals at 1800/1
 
Also I like Jordon Sweet at those odds just because he has been labelled full forward, in replace of Naughton.

3+ Goals @ 33/1
4+ Goals @ 180/1
5+ Goals @ 575/1

He hasnt kicked that many goals in his career but its worth a throw at the stumps at those odds.
 
NYRB said:
Mason Wood to score 2+ Goals @ 13.60. Been labelled at Half forward and at those odds its bit too big for me. (Around $7 considered to be fair for me)

Also taken 3+ @ 46/1 (around 25/1 considered fair for me)

And 4+ @ 234/1 (happy to take the SB trick on this)
Click to expand...
Wood plays wing, you have gotten a bit carried away here thinking hes Peter Matera.
 
teamlenny said:
Wood plays wing, you have gotten a bit carried away here thinking hes Peter Matera.
Click to expand...
yeah at those odds , 88 goals in 88 games in his career. Its worth a throw at the stumps

The odds wouldnt be as lucrative if he was playing or balled as a ruck.

I mean I still think he will get his chances. Kicked 1.2 last week.

Saints should look to exploit the Dogs defence with height and I think by labelling talls it stretches them at the back. Looking a bit closer at the Dogs defence, you have : Khamis 1.90 metres (with not much experience), Richards 1.88 m, Hannan a specialist forward playing in defence and Dale 1.87 metres.

teamlenny said:
Wood plays wing, you have gotten a bit carried away here thinking hes Peter Matera.
Click to expand...
And speaking of Peter Matera, I served him hamburgers and chips back in the day in Perth. Nice fella ;)
 
NYRB said:
And speaking of Peter Matera, I served him hamburgers and chips back in the day in Perth. Nice fella ;)
Click to expand...
Did you ask him if he is going to be up forward for a particular game? :$

Chris Scott comes to Adelaide in a couple of weeks, always visits my gym and funnily enough the last few times its just been the two of us in the weights room. Still in fairly decent shape, just like his playing days, probably carrying an extra kilo or two like his playing days.

One year I was tempted to ask him, if Danger would play forward. :$

I could ask from the horses mouth directly the other gym I go, Danger regularly goes to too, but his head is too big for me to ask him this question.
 
and a speculative multi, out of instinct and not looking too much into the stats

Billings 3+ Goals, McCarthy 3+ Goals @ 168/1

Billings tends to save his best performances for the Dogs, his best hauls has seen him bags of 3 in the past. (two times against them) Day game in Canberra and can see the Giants being a bit more open to scoring than they were last week. Same bet at Sportsbet would pay only 107/1.

A slightly safer version is

Billings 2+ Goals, McCarthy 2+ Goals @ 18.34

After striking an 82.50 shot last week, happy to play with a bit of loose change from last week.
 

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AFL 2022 AFL Round 18

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