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AFL 2022 AFL Round 7
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
- Tagged users None
Fizza
Club Legend
Disposals
Quaynor 15+ Sidebottom 15+
Josh Daicos 20+ Swallow 20+
Goals
Ginnivan 2+ Mihocek 2+
Ainsworth AGS Lukosius AGS
@29 boosted on SB
Quaynor 15+ Sidebottom 15+
Josh Daicos 20+ Swallow 20+
Goals
Ginnivan 2+ Mihocek 2+
Ainsworth AGS Lukosius AGS
@29 boosted on SB
Its not the coach
Cancelled
- Apr 16, 2019
- 1,289
- 890
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Banned
- #979
Multi from 3 games
RankineATG
McCreenyATG
Adams20+
BontempelliATG
Perkins ATG
Treloar20+
McCarthy ATG
McLean ATG
10@SB
SGM
McCeery2+
Rankine2+
12.20PB
SGM
Bont2+
Stringer2+
Treloar20+
Daniel 20+
Dunkley25+
Mcgrath20+
Parish25+
@8
SGM
Mclean2+
McCarthy2+
RonkeATG
12.25@SB
Multi
Rankine3+
Bont2+
NealeATG
@29.15SB
Rankine 3+4+7,18 SB
Multi
Rankine4+
McCreeny2+
Ronke2+
@190 SB
Ah Chee 3 or 4 would be brilliant, But can't see it happening
RankineATG
McCreenyATG
Adams20+
BontempelliATG
Perkins ATG
Treloar20+
McCarthy ATG
McLean ATG
10@SB
SGM
McCeery2+
Rankine2+
12.20PB
SGM
Bont2+
Stringer2+
Treloar20+
Daniel 20+
Dunkley25+
Mcgrath20+
Parish25+
@8
SGM
Mclean2+
McCarthy2+
RonkeATG
12.25@SB
Multi
Rankine3+
Bont2+
NealeATG
@29.15SB
Rankine 3+4+7,18 SB
Multi
Rankine4+
McCreeny2+
Ronke2+
@190 SB
Ah Chee 3 or 4 would be brilliant, But can't see it happening
Last edited:
- Aug 3, 2020
- 1,137
- 1,589
- AFL Club
- Hawthorn
I've gone this for the early game:
Casboult 2+
Mihocek 2+
Rosas 2+
@12.88 (Boosted on Lads)
Casboult 2+
Mihocek 2+
Rosas 2+
@12.88 (Boosted on Lads)
Fizza
Club Legend
Like this one. Value, it's only 8.90 @ SB. Got it 12.43 on PB
Its not the coach
Cancelled
- Apr 16, 2019
- 1,289
- 890
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Banned
- #982
Yep, Put it on twice last night aswell
- Oct 6, 2011
- 34,725
- 10,563
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
I agree with what someone mentioned a bit earlier. Bulldogs defence lacks a bit of height and stableness at the back with no Keath.
Key contests for me
Peter Wright v Ryan Gardner- Wright is 203 cm v Gardner 197 cm. Usually Keath would get the best forward.
Aaron Naughton v Zach Reid- Zach Reid is an unknown at this level. Only played 1 game at this level. Naughton could have a field day against this young 19 year old fella.
Both defences to be fair look a bit vulnerable.
The X-factors for the Bombers are: Stringer and Baldwin both 192 and 193 centimetres respectively. Stringer we know is a pretty good footballer, but Baldwin specialist position is forward. He is the lesser known player. Someone on this thread mentioned Baldwin kicked 5 goals recently as well. Might be even worth looking at speculative plays on the other tall Bomber players in: Nik Cox and Draper. Baldwin, Stringer, Nik Cox, Draper and Peter Wright could cause a few headaches height wise in the forward line. Im not sure the comp rates Duryea and Tim O'Brien as defenders. Essendons fast style of footy means the talls will get chances in the aerial route. And thinking about this, moving the ball slowly is a good thing for them as it gives the Bomber talls more time to get their leaps and timing right. I personally dont see the Bomber smalls getting nibbles on the ground level.
Baldwin 2+ @ 4.75
Baldwin 3+ @ 18.73
Baldwin 4+ @ 51.50
Baldwin 5+ @ 201 (SB Trick)
Baldwin 2+, Mitch Wallis 2+ @ 13.92
Baldwin 3+, Mitch Wallis 3+ @ 102
Key contests for me
Peter Wright v Ryan Gardner- Wright is 203 cm v Gardner 197 cm. Usually Keath would get the best forward.
Aaron Naughton v Zach Reid- Zach Reid is an unknown at this level. Only played 1 game at this level. Naughton could have a field day against this young 19 year old fella.
Both defences to be fair look a bit vulnerable.
The X-factors for the Bombers are: Stringer and Baldwin both 192 and 193 centimetres respectively. Stringer we know is a pretty good footballer, but Baldwin specialist position is forward. He is the lesser known player. Someone on this thread mentioned Baldwin kicked 5 goals recently as well. Might be even worth looking at speculative plays on the other tall Bomber players in: Nik Cox and Draper. Baldwin, Stringer, Nik Cox, Draper and Peter Wright could cause a few headaches height wise in the forward line. Im not sure the comp rates Duryea and Tim O'Brien as defenders. Essendons fast style of footy means the talls will get chances in the aerial route. And thinking about this, moving the ball slowly is a good thing for them as it gives the Bomber talls more time to get their leaps and timing right. I personally dont see the Bomber smalls getting nibbles on the ground level.
Baldwin 2+ @ 4.75
Baldwin 3+ @ 18.73
Baldwin 4+ @ 51.50
Baldwin 5+ @ 201 (SB Trick)
Baldwin 2+, Mitch Wallis 2+ @ 13.92
Baldwin 3+, Mitch Wallis 3+ @ 102
- Oct 6, 2011
- 34,725
- 10,563
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
To the further point about previous post, I reckon if the ball does land on ground level, thats where the Dogs players are their strength. To keep it simple, aerial= Essendon advantage, anything on ground level= Bulldogs advantage.
Parish aside, Essendon are one of the lazier contested possession teams in the comp this season. Bombers ranked 17th in contested disposals, Bulldogs 8th in 2022.
Parish aside, Essendon are one of the lazier contested possession teams in the comp this season. Bombers ranked 17th in contested disposals, Bulldogs 8th in 2022.
Fizza
Club Legend
NYRB Baldwin train it is then,
2,3,4,5 @235 boosted SB
2,3,4,5 @235 boosted SB
fpm84
Brownlow Medallist
At least I get some money back from SB
Ah do we get money back for this if we already placed bets on him
- May 6, 2009
- 10,495
- 25,126
- AFL Club
- St Kilda
Degoey has quite a high possies line to at 25.5.
I think this is value @ 4.75:
luko 15+
Degoey under 25.5
N Daicos under 26.5 (still young- starting to slow down a bit?)
His mum was hit by a car and died last week and his wife just had a baby- all in the last week.
So he's either gonna come out playing like a man possessed or a man distracted you would think... same goes for the whole dogs team you would think.
Also i think the lions to win by 25+ is value @ 4.30.
I think they match up very well against the swans and should have lots of good avenues to goal.
Like daniher for most goals @ 4.25.
Having a nibble at this too:
2.5u - McInnes AGS - $1.80 - 365
1u - McInnes 2+ goals - $4.40 - SB
Is listed as Collingwood’s tallest forward today so should create some opportunities for himself and has shown in his most recent two games that he can be a solid leading target. With the current state of the Collingwood forward line In expecting him to create a few opportunities for himself with all the attention going on Mihocek, De Goey (when he’s up there), and now Ginnivan. Didn’t kick a goal in his first two but has kicked 3.3 in his last two games.
EDIT: just saw that Reef is medi sub - should get void
2.5u - Lyons over 25.5 disposals - $1.80 - Ladbrokes
Can get better odds on Betfair. Looked back to his best last week picking up the second most on ground in the Q clash. This line, that he cleared in 17/24 last year, should continue to work its way back up to 27.5 as the season progresses. Any extra attention will go the way of Neale today which will help him thrive.
1u - McInnes 2+ goals - $4.40 - SB
Is listed as Collingwood’s tallest forward today so should create some opportunities for himself and has shown in his most recent two games that he can be a solid leading target. With the current state of the Collingwood forward line In expecting him to create a few opportunities for himself with all the attention going on Mihocek, De Goey (when he’s up there), and now Ginnivan. Didn’t kick a goal in his first two but has kicked 3.3 in his last two games.
EDIT: just saw that Reef is medi sub - should get void
2.5u - Lyons over 25.5 disposals - $1.80 - Ladbrokes
Can get better odds on Betfair. Looked back to his best last week picking up the second most on ground in the Q clash. This line, that he cleared in 17/24 last year, should continue to work its way back up to 27.5 as the season progresses. Any extra attention will go the way of Neale today which will help him thrive.
Just noticed about 5 multis in a row that had 0 reasoning. To avoid clustering the board and keeping the quality up, many people would appreciate if you either didn’t post them, or if you added some reasoning as to why you actually took the bet.
Without reasoning it just looks like you’ve thrown a few darts.
Only needs to be a sentence or two.
Without reasoning it just looks like you’ve thrown a few darts.
Only needs to be a sentence or two.
- Oct 6, 2011
- 34,725
- 10,563
- AFL Club
- GWS
- Other Teams
- Patriots, Golden State, Wildcats
AFL stat multiplier spreads (Kicks x Handballs x Goals) for Bulldogs v Essendon:
The lines for the Bulldogs players are too high. I reckon a few of those mids may not score goals. PointsBet have clearly factored into account that the ground is high scoring and for me there isnt that great value for this match. Suggested tips using $1 staking system and the reasons below:
Bontempelli UNDER 184 (needs probably 2 goals or a 30 disposal game to cover this, should be prepared to take a hit if he kicks exactly 3)
Bailey Smith UNDER 123 (not sure all the mids can score goals, there is value in opposing at least one)
Treloar UNDER 137 (same reason as above)
MacRae NO PLAY
Liberatore NO PLAY
Dunkley NO PLAY
Naughton NO PLAY
Weightman NO PLAY
McNeil NO PLAY
VanDerMeer NOPLAY
Wallis NO PLAY
Nic Martin NO PLAY
Parish NO PLAY
Stringer OVER 92 (can oblige with his 2 goals)
Wright NO PLAY
Merrett NO PLAY
Waterman NO PLAY
Caldwell OVER 50 (is a play based on table average)
McGrath NO PLAY
Perkins NO PLAY
Guelfi NO PLAY
Cutler NO PLAY
Durham NO PLAY
The lines for the Bulldogs players are too high. I reckon a few of those mids may not score goals. PointsBet have clearly factored into account that the ground is high scoring and for me there isnt that great value for this match. Suggested tips using $1 staking system and the reasons below:
Bontempelli UNDER 184 (needs probably 2 goals or a 30 disposal game to cover this, should be prepared to take a hit if he kicks exactly 3)
Bailey Smith UNDER 123 (not sure all the mids can score goals, there is value in opposing at least one)
Treloar UNDER 137 (same reason as above)
MacRae NO PLAY
Liberatore NO PLAY
Dunkley NO PLAY
Naughton NO PLAY
Weightman NO PLAY
McNeil NO PLAY
VanDerMeer NOPLAY
Wallis NO PLAY
Nic Martin NO PLAY
Parish NO PLAY
Stringer OVER 92 (can oblige with his 2 goals)
Wright NO PLAY
Merrett NO PLAY
Waterman NO PLAY
Caldwell OVER 50 (is a play based on table average)
McGrath NO PLAY
Perkins NO PLAY
Guelfi NO PLAY
Cutler NO PLAY
Durham NO PLAY
- Jan 21, 2013
- 11,557
- 24,227
- AFL Club
- Port Adelaide
Pies H2H
DeGoey 3+
McCreery 2+
Rankine AGS
Anderson 25+
@26
DeGoey 3+
McCreery 2+
Rankine AGS
Anderson 25+
@26
Tyler Brown named on-ball. He had 28 disposals in the VFL last week and is $14 for 20+ on 365.
Yeah that would be probably be me. Just going by past averages and last few games. No rhyme or reason on some of these multis I'm doing, just didn't see much value in some of the goal trains.
Albeit I did have more success in rounds 1-6 with goal trains than I have with same game multis
Its not the coach
Cancelled
- Apr 16, 2019
- 1,289
- 890
- AFL Club
- Adelaide
- Banned
- #997
McCreeny3+@10PB
McCreeny4+@34SB
Because I felt like it
McCreeny4+@34SB
Because I felt like it
I feel like with going for trains it comes down to 85 percent gut feel and 15 percent logic to be fair
It was multiple posters, so not just you. I just think most people aren't going to tail a tip that doesn't have any reasoning behind it. It's what makes this forum much better than most punting groups on facebook.
