AFL 2022 Brownlow Medal

[balmainforever]

anybody who posts bets after the count is over on Sunday without putting them up first WILL BE CARDED

 

[adammania9]

ROUND 21



MELB v COLL

3 C Petracca (Melb)

2 C Oliver (Melb)

1 M Gawn (Melb)



HAW v GC

3 D Swallow (GC)

2 J Gunston (Haw)

1 J O'Meara (Haw)



GWS v ESS

3 L Whitfield (GWS)

2 J Hogan (GWS)

1 H Himmelberg (GWS)



WB v FREO

3 L Ryan (Freo)

2 J Dunkley (WB)

1 R Lobb (Freo)



PA v RICH

3 T Lynch (Rich)

2 T Cotchin (Rich)

1 S Bolton (Rich)



GEEL v ST K

3 I Smith (Geel)

2 M Holmes (Geel)

1 B Parfitt (Geel)



NM v SYD

3 N Larkey (NM)

2 C Warner (Syd)

1 L Parker (Syd)



BRIS v CARL

3 Z Bailey (Bris)

2 L Neale (Bris)

1 H McLuggage (Bris)



WCE v ADEL

3 J Kennedy (WCE)

2 R Laird (Adel)

1 D Fogarty (Adel)

	LEADERBOARD
26​	T Miller (GC), C Petracca (Melb)
24​	A Brayshaw (Freo), L Neale (Bris)
22​	P Cripps (Carl)

ROUND 22



ST K v BRIS

3 C Rayner (Bris)

2 M Wood (St K)

1 M Windhager (St K)



GWS v WB

3 J Kelly (GWS)

2 B Dale (WB)

1 S Coniglio (GWS)



ADEL v NM

3 L Davies-Uniacke (NM)

2 J Dawson (Adel)

1 D Fogarty (Adel)



GC v GEEL

3 J Cameron (Geel)

2 T Miller (GC)

1 M Bilcavs (Geel)



MELB v CARL

3 A Brayshaw (Melb)

2 C Oliver (Melb)

1 S Docherty (Carl)



FREO v WCE

3 T Barass (WCE)

2 S Darcy (Freo)

1 M Walters (Freo)



RICH v HAW

3 T Lynch (Rich)

2 D Prestia (Rich)

1 T Cotchin (Rich)



SYD v COLL

3 J Rowbottom (Syd)

2 C Mills (Syd)

1 L Parker (Syd)



ESS v PA

3 J Finlayson (PA)

2 Z Butters (PA)

1 S Powell-Pepper (PA)

	LEADERBOARD
28​	T Miller (GC)
26​	C Petracca (GC)
24​	A Brayshaw (Freo), L Neale (Bris)
22​	P Cripps (Carl), J Cameron (Geel)

ROUND 23



MELB v BRIS

3 C Oliver (Melb)

2 K Pickett (Melb)

1 C Petracca (Melb)



GWS v FREO

3 C Serong (Freo)

2 W Brodie (Freo)

1 S Taylor (GWS)



NM v GC

3 B Ainsworth (GC)

2 D Swallow (GC)

1 A Sexton (GC)



GEEL v WCE

3 M Bilcavs (Geel)

2 I Smith (Geel)

1 J Ceglar (Geel)



PA v ADEL

3 C Rozee (PA)

2 O Wines (PA)

1 T Marshall (PA)



ESS v RICH

3 D Prestia (Rich)

2 T Lynch (Rich)

1 Z Merrett (Ess)



HAW v WB

3 J Dunkley (WB)

2 J Sicily (Haw)

1 R Smith (WB)



CARL v COLL

3 P Cripps (Carl)

2 A Cerra (Carl)

1 J Daicos (Coll)



ST K v SYD

3 J Rowbottom (Syd)

2 D Hannebery (St K)

1 M King (St K)

	LEADERBOARD
28​	T Miller (GC)
27​	C Petracca (Melb)
25​	P Cripps (Carl)
24​	A Brayshaw (Freo), L Neale (Bris)
23​	C Oliver (Melb)
22​	J Cameron (Geel)

Appreciate your contributions, but you don’t seriously think no Pie polls in their win against Melbourne, do you?

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Appreciate your contributions, but you don’t seriously think no Pie polls in their win against Melbourne, do you?

It's a very interesting and fair question. This game was one I assessed at great length. My initial votes had Oliver not polling at all, as I really think his game was a lot of dumped kicks forward to no huge effect - but I have a suspicion umpires will look up at screens walking off and see he had 42 possessions.

Collingwood almost too even that night, with many really good contributions, and DeGoey can very easily poll here. My gut feel is the umpires will look at the overall numbers etc and Pies miss out - wrongly - but have to try and think like umpires usually do.

 

[benji21]

All I know is there aren't many counts identical, going to be a crazy Brownlow.

 

[footyfan35]

Lets hope it's a close count.

If anyone is looking for a last minute guide for the (To Poll a Vote) and (3 Vote Markets), the dailysportsbuddy predictor was really handy last season. They didn't have Wines as the winner and overpolled Macrae and J.Kelly, but hit the 3 Votes at just under 70% throughout the count. The key stats and star ratings help a lot with making picks. Here is the link for whoever might be keen DailySportsBuddy - Brownlow Medal Predictor

Hoping for a close finish and best of luck to all!!!

 

[LIONS15v]

All I know is there aren't many counts identical, going to be a crazy Brownlow.

Most have neale winning though

 

[SirBont]

I took Petracca 4.5+ @12 I was wondering is that a 4.5 head start so if the count finishes Neale 27 and Petracca on 26 I win is that correct? I can’t find rules on it

 

[freo_leo29]

I took Petracca 4.5+ @12 I was wondering is that a 4.5 head start so if the count finishes Neale 27 and Petracca on 26 I win is that correct? I can’t find rules on it

yes if Neale is the +0 but if another player is +12 then they may end up infront etc


its a poison market tbh, I wouldn't bet it

 

[SirBont]

yes if Neale is the +0 but if another player is +12 then they may end up infront etc


its a poison market tbh, I wouldn't bet it

Yeh that make sense now differently a strange market is there any line markets then

 

[NYRB]

Just did an 8- team multi based on a count I have seen online:

Ben Keays

2

Ben Keays

Age

27

Ht

186cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.1

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.9

5star

G

0.4

3star

D

13.7

3star

K

8.7

3star

HB

5.0

3star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.7

4star

G

0.3

3star

D

13.0

4star

K

4.8

2star

HB

8.2

5star

M

1.4

2star

T

4.4

5star

G

0.4

3star

Most Adelaide Team Votes
Mitchell Most Hawks Votes
Josh Kelly Most GWS Votes
Petracca Most Melbourne Votes
Larkey Most North Melbourne Votes
Bailey Smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

Most Bulldogs Votes
Nick Daicos Most Collingwood Votes
Chad Warner

1

Chad Warner

Age

23

Ht

185cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.0

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

3star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

1star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

2star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

2star

CL

0.0

1star

D

7.0

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

2.5

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

1.5

4star

CL

0.0

1star

Most Swans Votes


Odds: 42,292.60 @ TAB


Just chucked a bit of loose change on it.

 

[NYRB]

TAB Multi limit is odds < 100,000. Cant do multis above that

 

[NYRB]

Just did an 8- team multi based on a count I have seen online:

Ben Keays Most Adelaide Team Votes
Mitchell Most Hawks Votes
Josh Kelly Most GWS Votes
Petracca Most Melbourne Votes
Larkey Most North Melbourne Votes
Bailey Smith Most Bulldogs Votes
Nick Daicos Most Collingwood Votes
Chad Warner Most Swans Votes


Odds: 42,292.60 @ TAB


Just chucked a bit of loose change on it.

If this comes off, Im going to retire from work for the next 12 months.

 

[SirBont]

yes if Neale is the +0 but if another player is +12 then they may end up infront etc


its a poison market tbh, I wouldn't bet it

Is it the same as club handicap that other players might beat you even if you get the +2.5 right as I like de goey and bont to both get there handicap

 

[freo_leo29]

Is it the same as club handicap that other players might beat you even if you get the +2.5 right as I like de goey and bont to both get there handicap

handicaps should have the same rules yeah

 

[SirBont]

handicaps should have the same rules yeah

Swear when I placed the bets they didn’t have the winner +0 weird

 

[LongBombFromOutside50]

J Cameron to lead Geelong
W Brodie to lead Fremantle (without Brayshaw)
Z Merrett to lead Essendon
P Cripps to lead Carlton
$1.85

Surely that's a safe multi?

 

[Gift]

Surely that's a safe multi?

Its the Brownlow and the umps do the votes. Nothing is safe haha (besides teams where everyone is a spud and one gun takes all the votes)

 

[NYRB]

TAB Multi limit is odds < 100,000. Cant do multis above that

This was mentioned by me a few hours ago and is wrong.

The TAB Team Votes multi is capped at odds of 50,000

No idea on what the payout limit is though.

 

[EFL Boy]

Surely that's a safe multi?

I have Brodie winning Fremantle’s count w/o Brayshaw, but am a little skeptical he may underpoll and Serong might snatch it.

 

[LongBombFromOutside50]

I have Brodie winning Fremantle’s count w/o Brayshaw, but am a little skeptical he may underpoll and Serong might snatch it.

Other than:

• Round 23 vs GWS where he should poll 3
• Round 22 vs WCE where he may poll 1
• Round 12 vs Brisbane where he may poll 1 or 2

I'm not sure where else Serong will poll?

Pretty sure Brodie outpolls Serong fairly comfortably. Fair bit of media talk from very early in the season about him being one of the recruits of the year as well, so it's not like the umps won't know who he is.

 

[EFL Boy]

Other than:

• Round 23 vs GWS where he should poll 3
• Round 22 vs WCE where he may poll 1
• Round 12 vs Brisbane where he may poll 1 or 2

I'm not sure where else Serong will poll?

Pretty sure Brodie outpolls Serong fairly comfortably. Fair bit of media talk from very early in the season about him being one of the recruits of the year as well, so it's not like the umps won't know who he is.

I’ve got:

Rd 9: 0.5
Rd 12: 1.5
Rd 13: 2
Rd 21: 1
Rd 22: 0.5
Rd 23: 3

Brodie would just be one of the least surprising underpollers imo.

 

[LongBombFromOutside50]

I’ve got:

Rd 9: 0.5
Rd 12: 1.5
Rd 13: 2
Rd 21: 1
Rd 22: 0.5
Rd 23: 3

Brodie would just be one of the least surprising underpollers imo.

Yeah forgot about round 13. Brayshaw should get 3 but Serong could get 1 or 2 in that game. Young, Ryan, Sicily and O'Meara the other chances for 1 and 2.

Which rounds do you have Brodie polling?

 

[EFL Boy]

Yeah forgot about round 13. Brayshaw should get 3 but Serong could get 1 or 2 in that game. Young, Ryan, Sicily and O'Meara the other chances for 1 and 2.

Which rounds do you have Brodie polling?

Rd 4: 3
Rd 5: 0.5
Rd 6: 0.5
Rd 8: 2
Rd 10: 1.5
Rd 15: 1
Rd 17: 2
Rd 22: 0.5
Rd 23: 1.5

 

[NYRB]

Just reviewed one of the tougher allocated votes for Rd 2 Richmond v GWS. Not sure Short should be as short as listed. Seeing $1.70 listed for him to poll 3 here, which for me is too short.

Names being thrown up for votes from the outlets Ive read: Balta, Josh Kelly, Tom Green

12

Tom Green

Age

23

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

3star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

5star

, Short, Cotchin, Bolton, Pickett, Broad, Callan Ward

8

Callan Ward

Age

34

Ht

187cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.8

5star

K

11.2

4star

HB

11.5

5star

M

3.8

4star

T

4.3

5star

CL

5.4

5star

D

17.8

4star

K

9.0

4star

HB

8.8

4star

M

2.3

2star

T

2.3

3star

CL

3.3

4star

D

10.0

3star

K

4.4

2star

HB

5.6

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

1.8

4star

 

[botswana42]

How did they get this one past the authorities? This is the first i'm hearing of this, was it always going to be like this?

 

[madskill55]

View attachment 1511177
How did they get this one past the authorities? This is the first i'm hearing of this, was it always going to be like this?

They have done it last few years. Track the progress of the contenders and then you can bet live and make some coin. Betfair will be live open and TaB you can bet in a venue.

Anyone know why betting agencies stopped the Brownlow day specials? A few years ago they use to have boosted odds each hour for specific players and other markets but as of recent years no hype on it on the Brownlow day itself.