balmainforever
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AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
AFL 2023 - AFL Round 18
- Thread starter balmainforever
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- Sep 25, 2013
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Heeney 2
English
C Cameron 2
Walters 2
Ainsworth 2
@56 NEDS BOOSTED
English
C Cameron 2
Walters 2
Ainsworth 2
@56 NEDS BOOSTED
mclean tackles smashed in so just took 15 disposals tab 2.25.. im sure it was a better price but its 1.60 pbet.. ill take it he's pretty agile and should cover good ground with English.
liking Braeden Campbell tommorow POINTSBET STAT MULTIPLYER ONLY 28 he's always within range from 55 out and gets in good spots.. goals in 5 of last 8 and shots in all 8 games.. gets a decent amount of handballs and kicks in his wing type role as he gains confidence.. also taken Hayward 29 he's a hungry guy and always gets forward at times and is getting decent amount of ball he's coming off a 90 total last week yes he snagged 2 goals, but also had a 91 game vs carlton where he got 14 kicks 7 handballs and a goal.. don't expect that much ball but a 10 kick 5 handball and a goal game could be the ballpark.. took Rowbottom too at a low 27 just as I'll be kicking myself if this is the game he slots 1 or 2 and has lots of ball, very reliable to mix handballs and kicks and hes gone 24, 23, 27, 21 four of the past 5 with just one quiet one vs Geelong (14).. probably should do the same with Mills but he's a bit higher at 41.. Franklin is tempting at only 49 after moving well last week and finding ball.. hopefully he handballs 4/5 times but if I take his spread
Dogs side i like their total points of Naughton (15), Jammara (13) Weightman (12) Was crazy they scored 67 of the dogs 77 last week but you'd think one gets loose here for a score of around 25 hopefully.. we only need 40 to break even so I think taking all 3 guys has a good amount of ceiling and a low floor.. surely they won't do a daniher and charlie cameron and all dissappear on us.
Dogs side i like their total points of Naughton (15), Jammara (13) Weightman (12) Was crazy they scored 67 of the dogs 77 last week but you'd think one gets loose here for a score of around 25 hopefully.. we only need 40 to break even so I think taking all 3 guys has a good amount of ceiling and a low floor.. surely they won't do a daniher and charlie cameron and all dissappear on us.
- Sep 25, 2013
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I like it bro. I'm tempted to tail u. Do I have to have funds in balance to cover max loss? or does it just go minus balance? if it's the latter I might just do big stake and if it smacks us for an L I'll delete the app i'll tell them to suck me off if they want me to add the funds back in is that how it can work??
yeh unfortunately you need funds to cover bet... minimum bet is 0.50 cents so that's all I do as I only ever have 200-300 in my account.. so a bet on Campbell at 27 at 0.50 cents you'll need $13.50 in account... if he gets say 14 kicks x 6 handballs = 84 TOTAL you'll win by 57 so up $28.50.
ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
Stocking filler: Collingwood quarter-time leader $1.35 at TAB.
- Jun 13, 2016
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We've got our Free Thursday Tip up and the paywall is down for anyone who's interested.
www.aflsharps.com.au
AFL Tipping Service | AFL Sharps
AFL Sharps is an AFL-focused tipping service. We are a collective of 4 data analysts with over 20 years of experience.
www.aflsharps.com.au
ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
Stocking filler: Hayden McLean 2+ tackles @ $1.35 (TAB)
Has hit this 12/14 matches this year and is playing solo ruck.
Has hit this 12/14 matches this year and is playing solo ruck.
ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
I like Sam Darcy for marks.
I realise AFL is different level to VFL, but at VFL level this year has hit
4+ 7/7
6+ 4/7
High of 11 last week. Hit 14 twice last year.
Also had 8, 7 and 6 in his first three AFL matches last year.
Swans have a couple of key defenders back, but Darcy will be playing on the third best (after Naughton and JUH) and has 15+ cm on McCartin/Melican/Rampe.
4/6/8/10 on TAB paying $1.75/$3.75/$10/$34
I realise AFL is different level to VFL, but at VFL level this year has hit
4+ 7/7
6+ 4/7
High of 11 last week. Hit 14 twice last year.
Also had 8, 7 and 6 in his first three AFL matches last year.
Swans have a couple of key defenders back, but Darcy will be playing on the third best (after Naughton and JUH) and has 15+ cm on McCartin/Melican/Rampe.
4/6/8/10 on TAB paying $1.75/$3.75/$10/$34
Doggies drifting out to $2.20 on TAB.
Can anyone make sense of this? Lloyd and Warner out of the midfield, backline still cooked and season pretty much already over ladder wise. Dogs with everything to play for if they lose they’re out of the 8. WB can win away - last 3 interstate games wins against Freo & GWS with a loss to GC when they smashed them inside 50’s (66 to 48) just couldn’t kick straight/take advantage. Surely this backline can’t keep the Bulldogs talls at bay. And then swans drop Hickey? Surely English and the mids feast. Horse’s 300th makes it a narrative game to keep the cue out of the rack but beyond that I don’t get it…
Edit: add to this the Swans haven't beaten a single top 8 side all season.
Can anyone make sense of this? Lloyd and Warner out of the midfield, backline still cooked and season pretty much already over ladder wise. Dogs with everything to play for if they lose they’re out of the 8. WB can win away - last 3 interstate games wins against Freo & GWS with a loss to GC when they smashed them inside 50’s (66 to 48) just couldn’t kick straight/take advantage. Surely this backline can’t keep the Bulldogs talls at bay. And then swans drop Hickey? Surely English and the mids feast. Horse’s 300th makes it a narrative game to keep the cue out of the rack but beyond that I don’t get it…
Edit: add to this the Swans haven't beaten a single top 8 side all season.
Last edited:
The Dogs are better but the game is in Sydney so Swans are favourite. This isn't rocket science.
but thats it though swans will also see this as a last ditch chance given the compressed nature of the ladder. not completely over for them
ok found one on pointsbet PETRACCA kicks x hballs UNDER 177... Jordan and Sparrow are more than capable in the middle with Viney and Brayshaw to leave Petracca forward... sure he may attend a couple centre bounces here or there but 177 is very high... he was influential last week and still only ended at 8 kicks x 12 handballs for a total of 96.. I feel the handballs was pretty big for a guy playing deeper and that may lower this week to around 7 or 8, will probably cop Starcevich too who plays pretty tight.. even if he somehow has a huge game it seems he's been priced as a midfielder with his over line set at 207 compared to viney 186... if he somehow plays full mid and gets say 16 kicks 14 handballs you'll only lose $57 for a $1 stake...
but the ceiling of this bet could be say a 10 kick x 7 handball game where he stays very deep ... thats $107 profit.
but the ceiling of this bet could be say a 10 kick x 7 handball game where he stays very deep ... thats $107 profit.
ferrisb
Brownlow Medallist
Although you noted reasons why he might play deeper forwards, he is still more likely to get 30 touches than 17?
Long Shot Louie
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- Aug 23, 2022
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Beer money on:
Nick Vlastuin atg@$3.25 B365
Nick Vlastuin 2+@$26 B365
Vlastuin was swung forward in the 3rd quarter last week to equalise the swans numbers and offer aerial support to Riewoldt. The move was successful. Vlastuin looked good up forward, kicked a goal and changed the dynamic of the game.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see this move made again this week in order to equalise the tall West Coast defenders and whatever other players the Eagles drop back there in an effort to not get annihilated.
Nick Vlastuin atg@$3.25 B365
Nick Vlastuin 2+@$26 B365
Vlastuin was swung forward in the 3rd quarter last week to equalise the swans numbers and offer aerial support to Riewoldt. The move was successful. Vlastuin looked good up forward, kicked a goal and changed the dynamic of the game.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see this move made again this week in order to equalise the tall West Coast defenders and whatever other players the Eagles drop back there in an effort to not get annihilated.
no i am saying worst case scenario he somehow ends up mainly mid.. the loss should be pretty minimal... Grundy may be out which would mean VAN ROOYEN in.. but he kind of plays more a lead up target role normally so I don't think it would change Petracca much from being deep forward with Brown and Melksham floating around
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Butters must be out.
Why have Carlton gone from +6.5 to -1.5 and why has Butters Brownlow odds blown out?
Why have Carlton gone from +6.5 to -1.5 and why has Butters Brownlow odds blown out?
- Sep 25, 2013
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The smear on his birthday? 4-6 @11.50, 31, 126 sb
- May 20, 2016
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I'll fly tackle that prick
- Sep 25, 2013
- 15,525
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126 for 6 seems unreal. They’re giving it a 1/126 chance to get up, he did it a couple months ago in one half against Richmond
