AFL 2023 - AFL Round 24

[balmainforever]

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Also like Sexton up to 6+ @ $101 on SB. Kicked 6 in this corresponding final round junk game against North last year.

Looks like a nice bet.

Those are crazy odds for something he did against the same team in the same round 12 months ago.

My only concern is that too many degens on here will load up on it and sportsbet will have a word with certain stakeholders.

Last year I was the first person in the thread to mention Sexton and I said his odds weren't good enough for 2 / 3 / 4

AFL - 2022 AFL Round 23

Hurley named at FB plus another defender in Reid comes in, still a chance for juicy B365 odds. There's hope for another Stewart.

www.bigfooty.com

I don't think anybody loaded up on him for 6+ (which you mentioned in that thread was paying $126).

Call me crazy but I am now of the opinion that if there is too much cash on a player to score goals, something happens behind the scenes.

So now that that the Sexton cat is out of the bag, degens on here gonna load up, and then...

 

[HTPunter]

Looks like a nice bet.

Those are crazy odds for something he did against the same team in the same round 12 months ago.

My only concern is that too many degens on here will load up on it and sportsbet will have a word with certain stakeholders.

Last year I was the first person in the thread to mention Sexton and I said his odds weren't good enough for 2 / 3 / 4

AFL - 2022 AFL Round 23

Hurley named at FB plus another defender in Reid comes in, still a chance for juicy B365 odds. There's hope for another Stewart.

www.bigfooty.com

I don't think anybody loaded up on him for 6+ (which you mentioned in that thread was paying $126).

Call me crazy but I am now of the opinion that if there is too much cash on a player to score goals, something happens behind the scenes.

So now that that the Sexton cat is out of the bag, degens on here gonna load up, and then...

I’d be pretty confident they would accept more liability on high roller single ML/line bets than they do on a goal scorers bet from a few forum punters.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

I’d be pretty confident they would accept more liability on high roller single ML/line bets than they do on a goal scorers bet from a few forum punters.

You may be right, I have never worked for a bookmaker and don't know how it works on the inside.

However these 'high rollers', if they were winning, wouldn't they have been banned already?

And with ML / line bets the bookies can balance their liabilities and effectively minimise their own potential loss.

Can they do that with goalscorer bets?

 

[based]

Can they do that with goalscorer bets?

the majority of odds they offer on goalscorers are rip offs anyway so they probably dont need to worry about any balancing

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Langford to kick a bag against Pies decimated backline

4 @ 7.25 SB
5 @ 19 Lads
6 @ 57 SB

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Ah Chee train again if he comes up, been training but not sure if they take the risk

2,3,4 @ 6,23,125

365

 

[sohohoho]

the majority of odds they offer on goalscorers are rip offs anyway so they probably dont need to worry about any balancing

its a drop in the ocean for Sportsbet and its not as if Sexton 6+ is likely to happen, actual probability is maybe 2%?
They have dropped it to 40/1 now so really no leg to stand on to void bets.

 

[BloodRet]

Two legs fail, money back. I double checked with agent and it isn’t head to head and said can do goal scorers across seperate games, not more than one and the same game tho.


Sexton 2
Isaac Smith

7

Isaac Smith

Age

36

Ht

188cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

21.3

5star

K

13.0

5star

HB

8.4

5star

M

5.5

5star

T

2.9

4star

CL

1.7

4star

D

19.4

4star

K

11.1

4star

HB

8.3

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

2.5

3star

CL

1.3

4star

D

19.2

5star

K

10.6

4star

HB

8.6

5star

M

7.6

5star

T

2.0

4star

CL

0.6

3star

AGS
Rachele AGS
Finlayson 2
Heeney 2
Greene 3
@15 boosted lads

 

[Rank]

Swans and Giants an absolute lock this week, Saves the AFL the embarrassment of a team missing a finals spot through pure incompetent, Ignorant, or even corrupt officials.

 

[mookieb]

Typically around 3 teams "mail it in" for the final round of the season as their focus switches to what they are going to wear for Mad Monday.

We should exceed it this year. Cats already flown the white flag. NM win and they lose Harley Reid and surely there is someone asking Larkey if he has any hamstring awareness. Demons dead rubber. Blues dead rubber. Rich GF last week, Dusty and Co researching Port nightclubs. WC and Ade potential for letdowns after massive games the week before. Freo on the road after a reasonably good stretch of form. I think Ess bounces back here but I wouldn't fall out of my chair if they got pumped either.

Giants (only if WB win) and WB with massive incentive to perform. Lions also.

Overs, team overs and surely some potential thrashings on the cards. WB 40+, GC 40+, Sy 20+, GWS 20+, Port 60+. A couple of 220+ games?

Might be the round to throw a few 50 to 1 or 100 to 1 multi's around.

 

[gillon]

Perkins 1-4 on 365

2.05, 6.50, 26 and 150

Started the year off 3, 1, 2, 1, 1, 1. Playing more on ball after that but Wright and Stringer both didn’t train and Guelfi out, so hoping he stays in the forward half of the ground.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Typically around 3 teams "mail it in" for the final round of the season as their focus switches to what they are going to wear for Mad Monday.

We should exceed it this year. Cats already flown the white flag. NM win and they lose Harley Reid and surely there is someone asking Larkey if he has any hamstring awareness. Demons dead rubber. Blues dead rubber. Rich GF last week, Dusty and Co researching Port nightclubs. WC and Ade potential for letdowns after massive games the week before. Freo on the road after a reasonably good stretch of form. I think Ess bounces back here but I wouldn't fall out of my chair if they got pumped either.

Giants (only if WB win) and WB with massive incentive to perform. Lions also.

Overs, team overs and surely some potential thrashings on the cards. WB 40+, GC 40+, Sy 20+, GWS 20+, Port 60+. A couple of 220+ games?

Might be the round to throw a few 50 to 1 or 100 to 1 multi's around.

Carlton have motivation I think they can still travel interstate if they lose to GWS???

 

[mookieb]

Carlton have motivation I think they can still travel interstate if they lose to GWS???

Would need Saints to win + Syd to win + percentage. It's the last match of the round so we'll know where they sit prior to the game.

 

[Johanpetro]

Dempsey 2 goals $5
Stanley ags $3.30 and 2 goals $29
Bet365

 

[fpm84]

Dempsey 2 goals $5
Stanley ags $3.30 and 2 goals $29
Bet365

Stanley pick is a great one - with Hawk and Jez out and Conway debuting, it seems likely to me that Stanley will spend most of his time forward.

 

[NYRB]

I may have missed the boat but Sexton for 2+ Goals is into $1.57 at Ladbrokes. Was expecting around $1.80+ or so. Would imagine if he can kick 2 goals against Carlton last week, he can very well do it against a Roos side not really keen to win this week.

 

[eighties]

Chris Burgess

21

Chris Burgess

Age

29

Ht

194cm

Wt

97kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

8.2

2star

K

3.9

2star

HB

4.3

3star

M

2.7

3star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.3

3star

No current season stats available

D

6.6

2star

K

3.8

2star

HB

2.8

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

2.4

4star

G

0.4

3star

for Suns is good value for goals. Will play CHF replacing Luko… has kicked bags all year in the vfl. Worth a shot…

7.50 for 3
23s for 4
80s for 5

 

[Robo87]

has kicked bags all year in the vfl.

the vfl jynx to strike again? but i cant say no to 8.1 in the vfl.
edit: ive tailed Burgess 2345g at those odds.

 

[dontlimitme]

Chris Burgess for Suns is good value for goals. Will play CHF replacing Luko… has kicked bags all year in the vfl. Worth a shot…

7.50 for 3
23s for 4
80s for 5

VFL FORM LADS

TAILED

 

[eighties]

the vfl jynx to strike again?

Me betting on it is usually jinx enough!

 

[dontlimitme]

Leading vfl goal kicker also form this is peak

HAMMY FIRST MINUTE

 

[Atavistic]

Chris Burgess for Suns is good value for goals. Will play CHF replacing Luko… has kicked bags all year in the vfl. Worth a shot…

7.50 for 3
23s for 4
80s for 5

Okay, I'll tail 4 and 5.

 

[freo_leo29]

Brennan cox

36

Brennan Cox

Age

26

Ht

195cm

Wt

97kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.1

3star

K

5.8

2star

HB

5.3

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.1

4star

MG

182.8

3star

D

12.3

3star

K

7.5

3star

HB

4.8

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.0

2star

MG

182.8

3star

D

11.0

3star

K

5.8

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

1.8

4star

AGS $4 at betr


Inside word is he's playing forward with Hamling in


Played fwd final qrtr last week and snagged 1

 

[toenail11]

Has been light on goals all year but taking Treacy at his b365 odds

2,3,4 @4.73 @17 @75

 

[fpm84]

Any Callum Ah Chee

4

Callum Ah Chee

Age

27

Ht

183cm

Wt

80kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.8

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

5.9

4star

M

3.0

3star

T

2.9

4star

CL

0.8

3star

D

11.1

3star

K

7.7

3star

HB

3.4

2star

M

3.1

3star

T

2.7

4star

CL

0.7

3star

D

9.4

3star

K

4.4

2star

HB

5.0

4star

M

2.4

3star

T

3.0

5star

CL

0.8

3star

odds apart from B365?

Played forward until injured last week and with McCarthy out he’ll definitely stay there.

Am on 3/4 at 13/50.