AFL 2023 - AFL Round 9

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Johanpetro said:
Before people started adding Geelong to multis, as mentioned above we are literally gonna have 9 of our best 22 out. Tigers have come in from $4.20 to $3.30 in the space of a few hours .. I’d be staying away from that game at all costs if you think we are a moral
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Nankervis, Lynch, Soldo, Tarrant is a solid loss of spine though.

Ceglar v Ryan/Miller (so Stanley no great loss)

Rohan likely back fills a hole of Close somewhat.

No Lynch so loss of SDK and Henry doesn’t hurt as much.

Only real loss is the inside mids.

Against contenders I’d 100% agree but Richmond is terrible and probably missing the 2 key players it would be able to use to take advantage of the Cats own woes. Add to that they would probably have Tarrant in too to take the Hawkins monster, and everyone has to play 1 up (Balta still goes to Cameron, Grimes to Hawkins I suppose, Vlastuin/Broad get Rohan/Henry instead of being able to peel off to help out against the big 2).

Having watched Richmond closely the last 3 weeks, I really don’t see that they can hurt Geelong even with the current outs. They had the same outs for over half the game v Adelaide (bar Close) and Adelaide is a much better side than Richmond, yet every time Adelaide threatened Geelong had multiple answers.

The same injuries would be a big loss v Melbourne or Collingwood, but it will be coverable v Richmond.
 
Gonna back Buddy in for a big one this week. Freo have struggled against big forwards this season combined with all of the noise in the media regarding Buddy this week...

3+ $2.90
4+ $6
5+ $14
6+ $34

All SB.
 
HTPunter said:
Nankervis, Lynch, Soldo, Tarrant is a solid loss of spine though.

Ceglar v Ryan/Miller (so Stanley no great loss)

Rohan likely back fills a hole of Close somewhat.

No Lynch so loss of SDK and Henry doesn’t hurt as much.

Only real loss is the inside mids.

Against contenders I’d 100% agree but Richmond is terrible and probably missing the 2 key players it would be able to use to take advantage of the Cats own woes. Add to that they would probably have Tarrant in too to take the Hawkins monster, and everyone has to play 1 up (Balta still goes to Cameron, Grimes to Hawkins I suppose, Vlastuin/Broad get Rohan/Henry instead of being able to peel off to help out against the big 2).

Having watched Richmond closely the last 3 weeks, I really don’t see that they can hurt Geelong even with the current outs. They had the same outs for over half the game v Adelaide (bar Close) and Adelaide is a much better side than Richmond, yet every time Adelaide threatened Geelong had multiple answers.

The same injuries would be a big loss v Melbourne or Collingwood, but it will be coverable v Richmond.
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Things were perfectly set up for Rich to rebound against WC and they did to a degree covering the line. But they were woeful for the first 3 quarters, but they certainly kicked into gear in the last. Not sure if that constitutes a victory that is going to drive momentum going forward though. WC aren't AFL quality and if they're beating you over half way into a game then that's some serious warning signs.

Rohan back replaces Close, but Danger is the only out from last week?
 
any odds on Toby greene to cop a boo, pretty keen on this train
 
NonPhixion said:
any odds on Toby greene to cop a boo, pretty keen on this train
Click to expand...
Odds much shorter for JHF this week against North to cop a boo. $1.0001

Odds are on offer for North supporters to jump the fence and say hello to JHF. $1.10
 
GROTTO said:
Odds much shorter for JHF this week against North to cop a boo. $1.0001

Odds are on offer for North supporters to jump the fence and say hello to JHF. $1.10
Click to expand...
The AFL have stated life time bans will be handed out to any supporters who boo this week. The AFL are rostering an additional eight security guards apparently but that amount probably won't be necessary for the Norf match because I daresay those extra security will outnumber the Norf supporters.
 
Based on absolutely nothing other that 'gut feel' I'm wondering if Crazy Vossy might spin the magnets this week and change things in the forward line for the Blues. Possibly one of the defenders goes forward to give them a different look.

2+ Goals on B365

Docherty @ $21
Kemp @ $41
McGovern @ $71
Young @ $71

Splitting 1U between them for shits & giggles.
 

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L_W_P said:
Based on absolutely nothing other that 'gut feel' I'm wondering if Crazy Vossy might spin the magnets this week and change things in the forward line for the Blues. Possibly one of the defenders goes forward to give them a different look.

2+ Goals on B365

Docherty @ $21
Kemp @ $41
McGovern @ $71
Young @ $71

Splitting 1U between them for shits & giggles.
Click to expand...
yeah Blues lacking talls up forward.
Docherty isnt a defender either
 
malcolm rosas actually came to the party last week and i missed him. So he probably wont do anything this week.
But if you can get 4 shots on goals against melbourne and kick 4 straight, surely he can get 4 shots against the eagles?

2+ $2.55
3+ $5.50
4+ $16

b365
 
kicksome said:
malcolm rosas actually came to the party last week and i missed him. So he probably wont do anything this week.
But if you can get 4 shots on goals against melbourne and kick 4 straight, surely he can get 4 shots against the eagles?

2+ $2.55
3+ $5.50
4+ $16

b365
Click to expand...
Everybody should be buying Rosas for Mothers Day. :$
 
GROTTO said:
Everybody should be buying Rosas for Mothers Day. :$
Click to expand...

Key Peele Laughing GIF
 
This could be the round Richmond turn their inaccurate goal kicking around... Funny feeling about this one.

Last year's Cats Tigers match went down to the wire. Tigers were stiff to lose.

I'm smelling an upset.
 
Alright Boyos, it is that time of the week where we unload the LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK.
This segment is up 9.7 Units on the year and has been reliably putting food on the tables of Degens week after week.

There were better odds on this bet on Sunday night but the coward books simply were not allowing Lock levels of investment at that time and I will always endeavour to make the Lock something that all Degens can get proper money on.
Regardless, the odds we are being offered currently are still far and away the best H2H odds I have ever witnessed.
Geelong is seriously undermanned this week(9 of best 22) and coming up against a Richmond side that’s demise has been greatly exaggerated and has been building and gelling with the influx of GWS engine room players.
Geelong only won this fixture by 3 points last year against an undermanned Richmond side and will field a much weaker side this time including a very shallow midfield(no Danger,Selwood,Guthrie,Menegola,St-anley).

Richmonds performances also seem to be heavily influenced by motivation, of which they will have plenty going into this match. An example of Richmond not giving a **** would be their Marvel stadium(negative mindset every time) performance against the Suns. That won’t be the case this week.

There is simply no way that this underrated Richmond side will lose to this undermanned Geelong side. I don’t want to be sensationalist here but I would literally bet my foreskin on it.
(Books probably wouldn’t except this though)

Anyway,
RICHMOND @$3.50 IS THE LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK.
10 units

Edit: having mobilised the small army of Irish Catholic burner accounts at my disposal, the LOCK OF THE WEEK has now been increased to 20 units@$3.50

Edit 2: It is now Thursday. Odds have increased slightly. I am now up to 50 units on Tigs H2H across multiple platforms and accounts at average odds of $3.54
 
Last edited:
Bailey Smith 30+ @ $4 pb - Looks to be over his Calf issue... Had 22 disposals in the second half last week which corresponded to Treloar going off the ground injured so more responsibility for him in the Dogs midfield.
 
Long Shot Louie said:
Alright Boyos, it is that time of the week where we unload the LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK.
This segment is up 9.7 Units on the year and has been reliably putting food on the tables of Degens week after week.

There were better odds on this bet on Sunday night but the coward books simply were not allowing Lock levels of investment at that time and I will always endeavour to make the Lock something that all Degens can get proper money on.
Regardless, the odds we are being offered currently are still far and away the best H2H odds I have ever witnessed.
Geelong is seriously undermanned this week(9 of best 22) and coming up against a Richmond side that’s demise has been greatly exaggerated and has been building and gelling with the influx of GWS engine room players.
Geelong only won this fixture by 3 points last year against an undermanned Richmond side and will field a much weaker side this time including a very shallow midfield(no Danger,Selwood,Guthrie,Menegola,St-anley).

Richmonds performances also seem to be heavily influenced by motivation, of which they will have plenty going into this match. An example of Richmond not giving a * would be their Marvel stadium(negative mindset every time) performance against the Suns. That won’t be the case this week.

There is simply no way that this underrated Richmond side will lose to this undermanned Geelong side. I don’t want to be sensationalist here but I would literally bet my foreskin on it.
(Books probably wouldn’t except this though)

Anyway,
RICHMOND @$3.50 IS THE LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK.
10 units
Click to expand...
A couple extra value tips piggybacking off the LOCK. The following are good value but I cannot in good faith guarantee them. So only bet them if your on the LOCK as well and hence will have cash to splash.
0.1u Richmond 40+@$29 B365
0.1u Richmond-84.5@$501 SB

visualise this game being played on 501 planets. It would happen on a couple planets. Value.
 
Long Shot Louie said:
Alright Boyos, it is that time of the week where we unload the LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK.
This segment is up 9.7 Units on the year and has been reliably putting food on the tables of Degens week after week.

There were better odds on this bet on Sunday night but the coward books simply were not allowing Lock levels of investment at that time and I will always endeavour to make the Lock something that all Degens can get proper money on.
Regardless, the odds we are being offered currently are still far and away the best H2H odds I have ever witnessed.
Geelong is seriously undermanned this week(9 of best 22) and coming up against a Richmond side that’s demise has been greatly exaggerated and has been building and gelling with the influx of GWS engine room players.
Geelong only won this fixture by 3 points last year against an undermanned Richmond side and will field a much weaker side this time including a very shallow midfield(no Danger,Selwood,Guthrie,Menegola,St-anley).

Richmonds performances also seem to be heavily influenced by motivation, of which they will have plenty going into this match. An example of Richmond not giving a * would be their Marvel stadium(negative mindset every time) performance against the Suns. That won’t be the case this week.

There is simply no way that this underrated Richmond side will lose to this undermanned Geelong side. I don’t want to be sensationalist here but I would literally bet my foreskin on it.
(Books probably wouldn’t except this though)

Anyway,
RICHMOND @$3.50 IS THE LONG SHOT LOUIE LOCK OF THE WEEK.
10 units
Click to expand...
You’re also missing your best player in Lynch, have no forward line, it took Prestia to kick 3 goals to get you over the line against a VFL side last weekend, you have the biggest downhill skier in the game in Bolton, can see one of Hawkins or Cameron kicking 6 if Oscar Allen can kick 4 and Dusty just couldn’t give 2 shits about the game anymore.

Good luck
 
Happy Lachie Neale vs Essendon week everyone.

Neale's previous games vs Essendon:
21 & 0.1
44 & 2.2
37 & 2.0
33 & 2.0
40 & 0.0

Odds this week:
25/1 $3.50
25/2 $17
30/1 $4.75
30/2 $24
35/1 $9
35/2 $38
40/1 $20.75
40/2 $87

AGS $2.80
2+ $13
 

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AFL 2023 - AFL Round 9

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