AFL 2023 Brownlow,Battle of the Bulls

[balmainforever]

ANY BETS POSTED AFTER THE COUNT IS FINISHED WITHOUT PRIOR POSTING WHETHER WINNING OR LOSING WILL GET AN AUTOMATIC RED CARD

 

[GROTTO]

Can someone ask SB if they will offer a market for the overs/unders of how long a pause will be for Gillon to state the players full name?

In the Final round, there might be enough time for an ad break.

When he reads out Melbourne's votes for that R24 game, Im estimating there will be 30s between saying the players first name initial and then the surname.

C Petracca or C Oliver called out, IMO will determine the winner of the 2023 Brownlow.

 

[X_box_X]

Memories of last year...

We still never found out whether he cashed out did we?

 

[NYRB]

Memories of last year...

We still never found out whether he cashed out did we?

View attachment 1813107

From memory, that person said they didnt.

 

[HTPunter]

I just ignore rucks since none have done well in the last 15+ years. Remember years when Goldy and Gawn were contenders and they couldnt even win their own club votes.

Max has years of 20, 17, 16 & 16.

In a stacked side of midfielders, that’s pretty solid.

 

[HTPunter]

Everyone bar B365 has taken down 3 votes matches games down?? Dabble & SB & TAB I can’t find them

 

[WheeloRatings]

hey guys what are your totals for TEAM VOTES.. pies 1.70 to win at pointsbet I am a bit confused as to why Brisbane are such huge odds 15.00, compared to Melbourne 2nd fav 3.50 when they won an extra game... surely those odds should be a bit closer?

My model has Collingwood 89.3 votes on average, Melbourne 89.2, Port Adelaide 83.0, Brisbane 82.3. I probably have Melbourne and Collingwood a bit too close, but it wouldn't surprise me if Melbourne does end up 2nd to Collingwood.

Brownlow Medal Predictions

 

[NYRB]

Everyone bar B365 has taken down 3 votes matches games down?? Dabble & SB & TAB I can’t find them

Definitely still on Dabble at the time of writing.

Ive only see the odds on the App. Im not sure how to access it on the website.

 

[demon_fanatic]

tabtouch doing Money back real cash if you're player polls 30 and loses... not bad incase it is a BONT 30/Daicos 31/32 type scenario if you like Bont or Vice Versa.

 

[Hawkinspired]

I’m not sold on Daicos. There is usually a lag between performance and umpires picking up on it. They often seem to be a year late. Bont and Petracca proven vote getters, hard to see them getting beaten by Daicos. Also Butters got 3 votes last year, might not even beat Rozee.

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Gday all

Have had a stack of PMs from posters asking whether I'm putting up my count this year. As I said after last year's count, I didn't feel inclined to do a lot of work for free, when some posters decided to throw a lot of s**t my way (none of who had the balls to come back after). I do this for fun and have done really well over the years, so don't need rubbish from it.

Interestingly, my count landed a $251 BYO on SB, which anyone could have landed if they followed it.
I may revisit it next year but not this year. Really appreciate those who offered to donate to Beyond Blue in return for my count, that's something I'm really keen to support and considered on that basis but will hold this year

FWIW, I think Petracca is overs tonight and those backing Butters at $5 are brave, for a bloke who has polled 6 career votes - Rozee will take votes there. Best of luck to all tonight and hope you all make some good money.

Cheers
TJM

 

[Johanpetro]

I’m not sold on Daicos. There is usually a lag between performance and umpires picking up on it. They often seem to be a year late. Bont and Petracca proven vote getters, hard to see them getting beaten by Daicos. Also Butters got 3 votes last year, might not even beat Rozee.

I think you’re forgetting that Daicos is the afl golden boy. No way umps miss him

 

[X_box_X]

Does anyone know if TAB's 'Top 3' and 'Top 5' market includes ineligible players?

I.e. Serong isn't listed.

If you were to back Neale for Top 5 and he finishes 6th behind Serong, does TAB consider that a win?

 

[Johanpetro]

Sinclair/Greene/Cripps/Parish/De Goey/Libba/Sicily to combine for 120+ at $11.

I’ve actually got this hitting. Anyone else?

 

[demon_fanatic]

I’m not sold on Daicos. There is usually a lag between performance and umpires picking up on it. They often seem to be a year late. Bont and Petracca proven vote getters, hard to see them getting beaten by Daicos. Also Butters got 3 votes last year, might not even beat Rozee.

yeh you're kidding yourself if you think Umps are missing Daicos.. he polled 12/13 last year right when he wasn't as good as this... that was his year to start being recognised... i think people are suffering from the old NBA RECENCY BIAS thing that sucks voters in to a guy who got hot at the end of year and they forget the greater whole sum of the season (see Embiid vs Jokic MVP result)... in Daicos case we have a few people forgetting what happened early to mid year and only remembering the past month or so eg Daicos missing time and forgetting how good he was up until then.. so good that he will have those 28-32 votes already to give him a shot at holding on

his polling games are so bloody eye catching this year there's no way those 3 voter games become 1 voters and maybe only one will dip to 2 votes. so I don't think he is going to lose many votes on his potential games.. At worst he polls 28 if lots goes wrong... could go 33/34 if things go real well but most likely he will be 30/31

 

[HTPunter]

I think St Kilda will be the surprise club tonight. Bit like Amon last year (remember: it wasn’t corrupt to give Amon the 3 votes, only that one of the 3 umps privy to that then told people later - but he had the 3 votes for months).

Mason Wood

32

Mason Wood

Age

31

Ht

192cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.2

3star

K

7.8

3star

HB

5.4

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

CL

0.3

2star

D

8.3

2star

K

2.7

1star

HB

5.7

3star

M

1.7

2star

T

1.3

2star

CL

0.0

1star

D

15.8

4star

K

8.6

4star

HB

7.2

5star

M

4.6

5star

T

2.6

4star

CL

0.6

3star

Rnd 1 $5 on Dabble but I’d rather the $9 any other player on B365 to capture him + any other surprises

Then $41 round 2

Both games had a very even display, no dominant player (statistically Cox, Ryan & Young chipped it around round 1, round 2 the Saints were even in a big win).

 

[Pklz]

$4 for daicos on swiftbet

 

[HTPunter]

Round 2 Sydney v Hawthorn

Dabble: Mills $1.08 Amartey $9 McDonald $9

Bet365: Mills $1.70 McDonald $3.25 Amartey $5.50

Amartey had 11 disposals & 4 goals at half time and was then subbed off. Surely no one has ever got 3 votes from being subbed off at half time? Game was likely over but really, only 6 goal margin.

I like Mills $1.70 B365 & McDonald $9 Dabble, take both and should profit. Willing to fade Amartey getting 3 votes for a 1 half performance.

 

[NonPhixion]

I think St Kilda will be the surprise club tonight. Bit like Amon last year (remember: it wasn’t corrupt to give Amon the 3 votes, only that one of the 3 umps privy to that then told people later - but he had the 3 votes for months).

Mason Wood Rnd 1 $5 on Dabble but I’d rather the $9 any other player on B365 to capture him + any other surprises

Then $41 round 2

Both games had a very even display, no dominant player (statistically Cox, Ryan & Young chipped it around round 1, round 2 the Saints were even in a big win).

Yeh I really like Saints O71.5 votes. Think they cover that easily

 

[Pablito]

My little smoky, should poll 4 at least maybe 5. Also Betr have it at like 3.20. So it may have been mispriced imo.

The others wont get more than 3 max 4 imo. So if it's a draw it's still $3 return.

 

[HTPunter]

Also another early round roughie (I anecdotally think early rounds throw up more surprises - I normally start off bad and then come home flying, by mid season the umps are in full “prime mid gets 3 votes” mode)

Liam Baker

7

Liam Baker

Age

26

Ht

173cm

Wt

72kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

15.7

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

7.9

5star

M

3.2

3star

T

2.6

4star

MG

222.2

3star

D

14.6

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

7.9

4star

M

3.8

4star

T

1.8

3star

MG

191.9

3star

D

14.4

4star

K

6.2

3star

HB

8.2

5star

M

1.6

2star

T

1.8

4star

MG

224.2

4star

v Adelaide, $23 B365

25 disposals, 1 goal, 7 score involvements (=2nd most for Richmond). Winning side. Some reasonable vote history taking into account his role (polls alright when he’s had good stats games, obviously doesn’t poll consistently when he’s played a lot of back pocket/forward flanker).

Other possibles:
Laird - 39 disposals, poor polling history in comparison to stats, losing side

Taranto - 28 disposals, not a standout game for him stats wise, 63% DE

Hopper - best on for coaches, 23 disposals, 1 goal, playing an outside mid role.

Hopper was best on clearly 1st half but drifted away, Crows came back. Baker was consistent throughout.

Edit: Taking Hopper $7 & Baker $23 at very limited amounts on B365 - campaigners

 

[demon_fanatic]

Also another early round roughie (I anecdotally think early rounds throw up more surprises - I normally start off bad and then come home flying, by mid season the umps are in full “prime mid gets 3 votes” mode)

Liam Baker v Adelaide, $23 B365

25 disposals, 1 goal, 7 score involvements (=2nd most for Richmond). Winning side. Some reasonable vote history taking into account his role (polls alright when he’s had good stats games, obviously doesn’t poll consistently when he’s played a lot of back pocket/forward flanker).

Other possibles:
Laird - 39 disposals, poor polling history in comparison to stats, losing side

Taranto - 28 disposals, not a standout game for him stats wise, 63% DE

Hopper - best on for coaches, 23 disposals, 1 goal, playing an outside mid role.

Hopper was best on clearly 1st half but drifted away, Crows came back. Baker was consistent throughout.

Yeh love it baker stands out and plays eye catching footy and is fair

 

[bulletride]

Edit: Taking Hopper $7 & Baker $23 at very limited amounts on B365 - campaigners

$26 on Pointsbet and Topsport if you wanted more on, $13s for Hopper on PB too

 

[HTPunter]

$26 on Pointsbet and Topsport if you wanted more on, $13s for Hopper on PB too

Cheers!

 

[demon21]

Anyone else having trouble betting on the who receives 3 votes market, On bet365 seems only letting me stake my bet that gives me just over 60 dollar profit.

 

[Johanpetro]

Anyone else having trouble betting on the who receives 3 votes market, On bet365 seems only letting me stake my bet that gives me just over 60 dollar profit.

Yeh I can’t get on with anyone tbh besides SB when they opened.

3 vote markets up on Lads atm if anyone is keen