AFL 2023 Brownlow,Battle of the Bulls

[balmainforever]

ANY BETS POSTED AFTER THE COUNT IS FINISHED WITHOUT PRIOR POSTING WHETHER WINNING OR LOSING WILL GET AN AUTOMATIC RED CARD

 

[Jobe Watson]

I can see a world where Marshall rolls Sinc

Yeah I can honestly see Marshall beating Sinclair. He actually polls alright when he plays as a lone ruck and he had some big games this year (20+ disposals, 5+ clearances). Could easily get up to 17-18 votes which could tie or even beat Sinclair if things don't go his way.

 

[WheeloRatings]

For anyone interested, I have a Brownlow model based on coaches votes and game statistics. You can find round-by-round votes and various probabilities (based on 20,000 simulations) on the following page as well as a 99-page downloadable PDF guide:

Brownlow Medal Predictions

You can download the raw match-by-match details as a csv file too.

Overall Win %

Player	Team	Win %	Exp. Votes
Nick Daicos	Coll	35.6%	26.6
Marcus Bontempelli	WB	27.5%	25.7
Zak Butters	Port	22.8%	25.1
Christian Petracca	Melb	17.8%	24.3
Lachie Neale	Bris	5.0%	22.0
Connor Rozee	Port	3.2%	20.4
Errol Gulden	Syd	3.0%	21.1
Tim Taranto	Rich	2.0%	20.3

 

[GROTTO]

For anyone interested, I have a Brownlow model based on coaches votes and game statistics. You can find round-by-round votes and various probabilities (based on 20,000 simulations) on the following page as well as a 99-page downloadable PDF guide:

Brownlow Medal Predictions

You can download the raw match-by-match details as a csv file too.

Overall Win %

Player	Team	Win %	Exp. Votes
Nick Daicos	Coll	35.6%	26.6
Marcus Bontempelli	WB	27.5%	25.7
Zak Butters	Port	22.8%	25.1
Christian Petracca	Melb	17.8%	24.3
Lachie Neale	Bris	5.0%	22.0
Connor Rozee	Port	3.2%	20.4
Errol Gulden	Syd	3.0%	21.1
Tim Taranto	Rich	2.0%	20.3

Do you think we will get a tie this year? I think this is the year its going to happen.

 

[WheeloRatings]

Do you think we will get a tie this year? I think this is the year its going to happen.

I've got a 15.7% probability for a tie, but there's a very high chance it will be within a few votes.

 

[the_big_sav]

I think libba could be the name cursed the most tomorrow night if he doesnt get up

 

[Ah12]

Far out it looks like TAB just got some of these team handicaps completely wrong - some great options available according to the model simulations. I'll attach the model output here for each team, which basically shows on average how many votes I expect they'll end up on after the handicap is applied, percentage of simulations where they win, and then the implied fair odds that they should be priced at - anything over this price is a bet. Unfortunately the prices have moved a bit but since you can multi I've still found a few bets.

If you're willing to do the work and sift through the screenshots you'll find some others - but Gawn/English are as close at sure things over $2 i've seen, and Redman / Pendlebury / Finlayson / Wood are still decent value despite moving in.

Multi’d up Gawn/English on TAB @5.25

 

[Suncraze]

Far out it looks like TAB just got some of these team handicaps completely wrong - some great options available according to the model simulations. I'll attach the model output here for each team, which basically shows on average how many votes I expect they'll end up on after the handicap is applied, percentage of simulations where they win, and then the implied fair odds that they should be priced at - anything over this price is a bet. Unfortunately the prices have moved a bit but since you can multi I've still found a few bets.

If you're willing to do the work and sift through the screenshots you'll find some others - but Gawn/English are as close at sure things over $2 i've seen, and Redman / Pendlebury / Finlayson / Wood are still decent value despite moving in.

I'm not sure Gawn/English are complete locks! Could be wrong though

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Whats the max bet people are getting on these 3 votes per game markets. I put 25 bucks on one and span for eternity and limited me down to 22

 

[kicksome]

K Amon..... 3 votes

 

[bulletride]

Whats the max bet people are getting on these 3 votes per game markets. I put 25 bucks on one and span for eternity and limited me down to 22

Dabble pretty consistently let me on for the max $250 win amount (plus one random $300 win but I assume that was a bug) whereas Sportsbet (while they were up) would only let me on for a max $75 win.

 

[Johanpetro]

Whats the max bet people are getting on these 3 votes per game markets. I put 25 bucks on one and span for eternity and limited me down to 22

SportsBet let me on for the $250 max. Dabble and bet365 won’t let me on for 1 cent.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Any to poll a vote value bets you can see TAB?

 

[Johanpetro]

Round 16 Dogs V Fremantle 3 votes:

Dabble: Bont $2.60
Bet365: Bont $1.40

I’ve got the Bont, anyone else?

 

[GFC29]

Round 16 Dogs V Fremantle 3 votes:

Dabble: Bont $2.60
Bet365: Bont $1.40

I’ve got the Bont, anyone else?

Me too.
3 - Bontempelli
2 - JUH
1 - Serong

I'm on @ $2.50 Sportsbet

 

[X_box_X]

Round 16 Dogs V Fremantle 3 votes:

Dabble: Bont $2.60
Bet365: Bont $1.40

I’ve got the Bont, anyone else?

JUH for mine.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

SportsBet let me on for the $250 max. Dabble and bet365 won’t let me on for 1 cent.

With Sportsbet I got money on Nick Daicos earlier on as well as Jordan Dawson so not sure if they factoring this in for example

Never bothered with Dabble or Bet365 myself

 

[X_box_X]

Nick Daicos to outpoll NM may interest some. Betfair has this in their specials market and they steal borrow markets from the corporates. Not sure who else has this.

 

[sohohoho]

Whats the max bet people are getting on these 3 votes per game markets. I put 25 bucks on one and span for eternity and limited me down to 22

the absolute max allowed is $250 and every bet has to be sent to the AFL showing that.
If you have an account that isn't restricted at all you will get $250 but if you get less than this then this is likely what your account is limited to % wise for AFL.

Those completely limited are likely getting 5 or 10% of that $250 amount

 

[Johanpetro]

the absolute max allowed is $250 and every bet has to be sent to the AFL showing that.
If you have an account that isn't restricted at all you will get $250 but if you get less than this then this is likely what your account is limited to % wise for AFL.

Those completely limited are likely getting 5 or 10% of that $250 amount

I’ve seen a mate place bets on 3 vote markets that are well over $250 return. More like $300-$400 return on multiple different bets

 

[demon_fanatic]

hey guys what are your totals for TEAM VOTES.. pies 1.70 to win at pointsbet I am a bit confused as to why Brisbane are such huge odds 15.00, compared to Melbourne 2nd fav 3.50 when they won an extra game... surely those odds should be a bit closer?

 

[sohohoho]

I’ve seen a mate place bets on 3 vote markets that are well over $250 return. More like $300-$400 return on multiple different bets

$250 return or profit?


Topsport's is 250 including stake which is completely pointless.

 

[sohohoho]

hey guys what are your totals for TEAM VOTES.. pies 1.70 to win at pointsbet I am a bit confused as to why Brisbane are such huge odds 15.00, compared to Melbourne 2nd fav 3.50 when they won an extra game... surely those odds should be a bit closer?

Pies are a little short in this for me, Dees or Port okay bets

 

[Johanpetro]

$250 return or profit?


Topsport's is 250 including stake which is completely pointless.

Def profit. Just looked at one. $50 to return 367.50

 

[sohohoho]

Def profit. Just looked at one. $50 to return 367.50

whatever book it is has stuffed up then

 

[X_box_X]

In the past, some books have had Happy Hour Brownlow specials.

I'm guessing there's nothing like that around this year? I'd be disappointed if there wasn't because I've spent all winter working on my bowling.