List Mgmt. 2023 Draft/Trade/FA thread

[Scythe94]

Seems a good time to pin this:


OOC players:

• Michael Hibberd (retired)
• Deakyn Smith (delisted)
• Andy Moniz-Wakefield
• Jake Melksham (delisted, will be re-drafted as a rookie)
• Luke Dunstan (retired)
• James Jordon (signed with Sydney as a Free Agent)
• Kye Turner (delisted)

Traded out:

• James Harmes (Bulldogs)
• Brodie Grundy (Sydney)

Traded in:

• Tom Fullarton (Brisbane)
• Jack Billings (St Kilda)
• Shane McAdam (Adelaide)

Drafted:

• Caleb Windsor (Pick 7)
• Koltyn Tholstrup (Pick 13)
• Kynan Brown (Rookie)

 

[00Stinger]

At least over the last 6-7 years you can't say that the club dies wondering about making big splashes at the trade table around draft time

 

[LarryDavidNeitz]

First round of the draft is about trying to find a superstar, so absolutely these are the kind of plays we should be considering.

However we also know that historically, pick 1 is not necessarily more likely to turn out to be a superstar than pick 2,3 4 or 5.

It's going to be a fascinating discussion, whether we're more likely to get a superstar going all chips in on Reid or having three first rounders and giving ourselves 3 cracks at it. Or for that matter if we can't get pick 1 do you try and trade two first round picks for pick 2 or 3?

Personally my biggest hesitation trading away three first rounders is that I think we still need to have another crack at a blue chip key forward, as well as a class midfielder.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Personally my biggest hesitation trading away three first rounders is that I think we still need to have another crack at a blue chip key forward

Really? You think so? Cause I dont at all. With the young guys coming thru and im now of the belief that we could easily have Grundy do 75% ruck work and have Max play 75% forward if required in the short term if we are that desperate for KPF targets.

 

[Jimi]

Don’t think we do that trade. JT and Lamb love drafting batches of players together and this draft is our chance to do that in a super draft. Wouldn’t be surprised if we trade our future first

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Don’t think we do that trade. JT and Lamb love drafting batches of players together and this draft is our chance to do that in a super draft. Wouldn’t be surprised if we trade our future first

We tried trading 3 firsts for Humphrey last year. I dont think they are locked into a specific strategy, it's one draft at a time, which is exactly what it should always be.

 

[Topkent]

Trading for a blue chip key forward would be silly imo if anything we need a key defender after a midfielder. Midfielder the most important to balance it then May is nearly done and outside of Petty and Lever we have nothing. You can win flags with shit key forwards, you can't with shit key backs.

 

[Topkent]

First round of the draft is about trying to find a superstar, so absolutely these are the kind of plays we should be considering.

However we also know that historically, pick 1 is not necessarily more likely to turn out to be a superstar than pick 2,3 4 or 5.

It's going to be a fascinating discussion, whether we're more likely to get a superstar going all chips in on Reid or having three first rounders and giving ourselves 3 cracks at it. Or for that matter if we can't get pick 1 do you try and trade two first round picks for pick 2 or 3?

Personally my biggest hesitation trading away three first rounders is that I think we still need to have another crack at a blue chip key forward, as well as a class midfielder.

Think you're way over doing the 3 first rounders angle. 2 of them are likely to be 15+. If they were pick 19 and called second rounders and we said a first and two seconds for Pick 1 you'd jump all over that most likely. Reality is it's basically the same. If we are floating the idea we clearly don't rate the players after 10 in the draft or we wouldn't even entertain it

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Thank christ GC rejected that trade proposal, I mean Humphery has looked alright so far but Freo's pick is likely going to be before the pick we would have used on Humphery. Would have been JT and Lamb's first epic fail.

And you see why the GC are still shit, genuine chance to improve their list and they fail to take it.

 

[booshboy]

Thank christ GC rejected that trade proposal, I mean Humphery has looked alright so far but Freo's pick is likely going to be before the pick we would have used on Humphery. Would have been JT and Lamb's first epic fail.

And you see why the GC are still s**t, genuine chance to improve their list and they fail to take it.

Any idea how the WA prospects look at the top end of the draft? Maybe West Coast would give up the No1 pick easier than Hawthorn would.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Any idea how the WA prospects look at the top end of the draft? Maybe West Coast would give up the No1 pick easier than Hawthorn would.

Moir (goal kicking forward with big leap) clear #2 for me right now and hes a SA. Decent drop off to the rest but a lot of time to go before draft time so things can change.

West Coast never been shy about taking victorians, cant see that changing.

 

[markm106]

Seems like a Woey type. Not exactly shining at the top end but will surely get a chance on the list

Apparently looks certain to be picked up. But that may be late or rookie.

 

[LarryDavidNeitz]

Think you're way over doing the 3 first rounders angle. 2 of them are likely to be 15+. If they were pick 19 and called second rounders and we said a first and two seconds for Pick 1 you'd jump all over that most likely. Reality is it's basically the same. If we are floating the idea we clearly don't rate the players after 10 in the draft or we wouldn't even entertain it

Fair enough but the point remains that 3 cracks at getting a star can easily work out better than throwing it all into the standout pick 1. Of course you can choose examples for going either way but if you take 2019 draft for example where Matt Rowell was the standout pick 1.

Pick 1 - Rowell

Or

Kosi (pick 12), Serong (pick 8), Sam De Koning (pick 19).

Personally I’m inclined to lean towards having 3 top 20s to give yourself arguably as good a chance at getting a star as having pick 1, plus the chance of getting 2.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Fair enough but the point remains that 3 cracks at getting a star can easily work out better than throwing it all into the standout pick 1. Of course you can choose examples for going either way but if you take 2019 draft for example where Matt Rowell was the standout pick 1.

Pick 1 - Rowell

Or

Kosi (pick 12), Serong (pick 8), Sam De Koning (pick 19).

Personally I’m inclined to lean towards having 3 top 20s to give yourself arguably as good a chance at getting a star as having pick 1, plus the chance of getting 2.

Cherry pick the best example possible why dont you.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

I mean I dont know how many times ive got to say it but Reid isn't like any other #1 pick prospect. Forget all you know about previous drafts. He is the most hyped junior of all time for a reason.

 

[Topkent]

Fair enough but the point remains that 3 cracks at getting a star can easily work out better than throwing it all into the standout pick 1. Of course you can choose examples for going either way but if you take 2019 draft for example where Matt Rowell was the standout pick 1.

Pick 1 - Rowell

Or

Kosi (pick 12), Serong (pick 8), Sam De Koning (pick 19).

Personally I’m inclined to lean towards having 3 top 20s to give yourself arguably as good a chance at getting a star as having pick 1, plus the chance of getting 2.

Righto lol but statistically what would be the odds of nailing a draft that well, happened maybe twice or 3 times in 25 years. Probably about the same as the number 1 pick being the best.

 

[LarryDavidNeitz]

Cherry pick the best example possible why dont you.

I already did. Why would I pick a bad example to make my point?

And I said that you could find examples either way.

But let’s say 2020 when it was Ugle-Hagar as the standout. Would you have wanted us to trade three first rounders for him?

How about 2018? Sam Walsh is very good but no way I’d have swapped three first rounders there - a bunch of really good players in the top 20.

You could go on and make the same point in most of the previous years. Daicos and Ashcroft are actually rare examples where the standout player looks worth a bunch of top 20 picks.

 

[LarryDavidNeitz]

Righto lol but statistically what would be the odds of nailing a draft that well, happened maybe twice or 3 times in 25 years. Probably about the same as the number 1 pick being the best.

Yeah but I’m saying you get 1 of 3 right from that top 20 and you’re ahead of where you were picking Rowell, even if the other two are busts.

 

[Topkent]

I already did. Why would I pick a bad example to make my point?

And I said that you could find examples either way.

But let’s say 2020 when it was Ugle-Hagar as the standout. Would you have wanted us to trade three first rounders for him?

How about 2018? Sam Walsh is very good but no way I’d have swapped three first rounders there - a bunch of really good players in the top 20.

You could go on and make the same point in most of the previous years. Daicos and Ashcroft are actually rare examples where the standout player looks worth a bunch of top 20 picks.

Could easily say would you trade Daicos for Bowey, Jefferson and Brayshaw they were taken as 3 high picks. In a bloody second you would

 

[Topkent]

Yeah but I’m saying you get 1 of 3 right from that top 20 and you’re ahead of where you were picking Rowell, even if the other two are busts.

You could make that same argument for the whole draft. Why trade 77/78/79 for pick one when it gives you 3 chances at a star

 

[LarryDavidNeitz]

I mean I dont know how many times ive got to say it but Reid isn't like any other #1 pick prospect. Forget all you know about previous drafts. He is the most hyped junior of all time for a reason.

Someone says that every year.

You could make that same argument for the whole draft. Why trade 77/78/79 for pick one when it gives you 3 chances at a star

Na that’s not true at all. It’s incredibly rare to get a superstar at pick 78.

A massive proportion of the superstars in the comp are locked in the top 20.

 

[Topkent]

Someone says that every year.


Na that’s not true at all. It’s incredibly rare to get a superstar at pick 78.

A massive proportion of the superstars in the comp are locked in the top 20.

It's incredibly rare to get a superstar at 16.

Lol why 20? Just a random number you plucked. Why not 21?
I'd say outside of the first 10-12 picks is a crapshoot. The premier isn't getting the best player in the comp at 18. I'd like one example.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Someone says that every year.

I dont. Comparing Reid fto Matt Rowell is just unfair. One is purely an inside mid the other can change the game for a side in 3 different parts of the ground.

 

[LarryDavidNeitz]

Could easily say would you trade Daicos for Bowey, Jefferson and Brayshaw they were taken as 3 high picks. In a bloody second you would

Yeah of course. He’s a standout example of getting the best player in the draft being worth way more than however many else you can get.

Regardless, I’m pretty confident that having 3 first rounders will more often than not get you a better result than just pick 1.

 

[Topkent]

Yeah of course. He’s a standout example of getting the best player in the draft being worth way more than however many else you can get.

Regardless, I’m pretty confident that having 3 first rounders will more often than not get you a better result than just pick 1.

Mate you keep saying 3 first rounders like they're all equal. It's one good first rounder and 2 meh ones. It's not 3 top 10 picks.

 

[LarryDavidNeitz]

I dont. Comparing Reid fto Matt Rowell is just unfair. One is purely an inside mid the other can change the game for a side in 3 different parts of the ground.

You’re obviously very excited about Reid and I’m sure you’re right but do you really not remember what people were saying about Rowell pre-draft and especially after his first two games?

Now he just looks like he’ll be an inside workhorse. We did much better in that draft with 2 lower picks