Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

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So, you hear all kinds of things at your local coffee shop.

I wander in wearing my Carlton top and a stranger says, “Go Blues”

I/S - “Thanks mate. What do you think of the off-season so far”
H/S - “We’ll see. Looking forward to the draft though.”
I/S - “Me too. Any goss?”
H/S - “Noise is, we’re looking to trade up. Get in front of Adelaide.”
I/S - “Wilson?” (Darcy)
H/S - “Yep. Adelaide see him as a Dangerfield type, so do we.”
…..

H/S - “Your kids play (basketball) at xxxxxxxxx yeah?”
I/S - ‘They do.. How come?”
H/S - “I’m mates with Tim (Lamb. xxxxx plays with mine). He told me. “


There was an article somewhere recently which said Adelaide had basically guaranteed Wilson they’d select him. Talked about his parents coming around to the idea or something. Maybe, just maybe, the Geelong pick is in calculations.
Well I'll be a woolly goatherder.
Nice info Ovis aries.
 
Fantasia was one of 3 players we fitness tested a few weeks ago

We are now talking with a couple of clubs about trading for a Top 10 pick or even a pick inside Top 20. Could depend on night and who picks who. We have eye on 1 or 2 players if available. It’s our preference but we will also be okay going to draft with 2 picks in 20s
 

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Thoughts, and an early crack for fun:

My rankings:

1. Harley Reid
2. Jed Walter
3. Colby McKercher
4. Ethan Read
5. Conor O'Sullivan
6. James Leake
7. Zane Duursma
8. Nick Watson
9. Nate Caddy
10. Lance Collard
11. Ryley Sanders
12. Daniel Curtin
13. Will McCabe
14. Caleb Windsor
15. Jordan Croft

and a crack at a Phantom 1st Rd:

1. WC Harley Reid
2. NM Colby McKercher
3. GC Jed Walter - i think NM got a favourable deal off GC in a trade to skip a bid spot to here. We'll see.
4. NM Zane Duursma
5. Haw Nick Watson
6. WB Ryley Sanders
7. GC Ethan Read
8. Mel Daniel Curtin - i'll put Melb here, but it wouldn't shock to see a trade to WC here involving WC future 1st.
9. GWS Caleb Windsor
10. Gee Nate Caddy
11. Ess James Leake
12. Ade Conor O'Sullivan
13. Ade Darcy Wilson - i've got Melb trading this pick 11 for Adelaide's 14 and 20. Personally i dunno why, but Adel seem to love Wilson, and i see Melb seeing better value from the 2 later picks.
14. Haw Will McCabe
15. WB Jordan Croft
16. Syd Arie Schoenmaker
17. GC Jake Rogers
18. StK Koltyn Tholstrup
19. Melb Harry Demettier
20. NM Lance Collard
21. GWS Joel Freijah
22. NM Ollie Murphy
23. NM Luke Lloyd
24. Coll Archer Reid
25. Melb Will Green
26. StK Charlie Edwards
27 Carl - i'll leave this open so it don't look like i've left a player for us lol...which i haven't.
 
Fantasia was one of 3 players we fitness tested a few weeks ago

We are now talking with a couple of clubs about trading for a Top 10 pick or even a pick inside Top 20. Could depend on night and who picks who. We have eye on 1 or 2 players if available. It’s our preference but we will also be okay going to draft with 2 picks in 20s
GWS could be a candidate for us to move up the board with their second pick - currently pick 16.

With their first pick, they'll end up with a Caddy or O'Sullivan or Sanders etc - but with their second pick, they may well be targeting a ruckman after the departure of Briggs, which they may not want to burn pick 16 on when you normally grab them in the 2nd round or later.

I could see something like pick 28 + future 1st for pick 16 + future 2nd.
 
I don't propose to be any sort of expert at all, but would this work? And would they be remotely interested??

We swap with the Giants picks 22, 28 and 70 for their pick 7 and 59. Would probably have to throw in a future third round pick (do we actually have one??)

Go to the draft and use picks 7 and 59, 78 is an upgrade (Cotters??)

Points seem similar, gives us a chance at the likes of Sanders, O'Sullivan, and maybe a Curtain??

Dreaming?? Tossing?? No Idea??
 
Fantasia was one of 3 players we fitness tested a few weeks ago

We are now talking with a couple of clubs about trading for a Top 10 pick or even a pick inside Top 20. Could depend on night and who picks who. We have eye on 1 or 2 players if available. It’s our preference but we will also be okay going to draft with 2 picks in 20s

My feel after some conversations is our preference is to get a really good draftee we target and then possibly another mature player. We are really trying to add to our depth as we feel we have enough young players for a team in the “window”

We have the 2 Irishman plus next year the Campo kids. Lemmey O’Keefe Akuei are still raw. Carroll Hollands Binns Cowan Mirkov Motlop are still young

Next year we could have 14 players 22 and under.

We feel as though we have 35 players that could play in our best side at anytime
 
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I don't propose to be any sort of expert at all, but would this work? And would they be remotely interested??

We swap with the Giants picks 22, 28 and 70 for their pick 7 and 59. Would probably have to throw in a future third round pick (do we actually have one??)

Go to the draft and use picks 7 and 59, 78 is an upgrade (Cotters??)

Points seem similar, gives us a chance at the likes of Sanders, O'Sullivan, and maybe a Curtain??

Dreaming?? Tossing?? No Idea??
We would have to give them our F1st to be any chance.
Seems Geelong may be more open depending on who is available on the night.

More chance of getting GWS pick 16 depending on who is available.
 
We would have to give them our F1st to be any chance.
Seems Geelong may be more open depending on who is available on the night.

More chance of getting GWS pick 16 depending on who is available.
Thanks Macky, was and am keen on keeping next years pick for splitting for the Campo's, probably would rather keep the two in the twenties than swap them for one half a dozen earlier.....it's either into the top ten or sit fat imo
 
Thoughts, and an early crack for fun:

My rankings:

1. Harley Reid
2. Jed Walter
3. Colby McKercher
4. Ethan Read
5. Conor O'Sullivan
6. James Leake
7. Zane Duursma
8. Nick Watson
9. Nate Caddy
10. Lance Collard
11. Ryley Sanders
12. Daniel Curtin
13. Will McCabe
14. Caleb Windsor
15. Jordan Croft

and a crack at a Phantom 1st Rd:

1. WC Harley Reid
2. NM Colby McKercher
3. GC Jed Walter - i think NM got a favourable deal off GC in a trade to skip a bid spot to here. We'll see.
4. NM Zane Duursma
5. Haw Nick Watson
6. WB Ryley Sanders
7. GC Ethan Read
8. Mel Daniel Curtin - i'll put Melb here, but it wouldn't shock to see a trade to WC here involving WC future 1st.
9. GWS Caleb Windsor
10. Gee Nate Caddy
11. Ess James Leake
12. Ade Conor O'Sullivan
13. Ade Darcy Wilson - i've got Melb trading this pick 11 for Adelaide's 14 and 20. Personally i dunno why, but Adel seem to love Wilson, and i see Melb seeing better value from the 2 later picks.
14. Haw Will McCabe
15. WB Jordan Croft
16. Syd Arie Schoenmaker
17. GC Jake Rogers
18. StK Koltyn Tholstrup
19. Melb Harry Demettier
20. NM Lance Collard
21. GWS Joel Freijah
22. NM Ollie Murphy
23. NM Luke Lloyd
24. Coll Archer Reid
25. Melb Will Green
26. StK Charlie Edwards
27 Carl - i'll leave this open so it don't look like i've left a player for us lol...which i haven't.
Interesting you have Lloyd at 23. I like him for us. Either him or delean.
 
My feel after some conversations is our preference is to get a really good draftee we target and then possibly another mature player. We are really trying to add to our depth as we feel we have enough young players for a team in the “window”

We have the 2 Irishman plus next year the Campo kids. Lemmey O’Keefe Akuei are still raw. Carroll Hollands Binns Cowan Mirkov Motlop are still young

Next year we could have 14 players 22 and under.

We feel as though we have 35 players that could play in our best side at anytime

I’ve got depth of 33 seniors ATM
+ (3) Carroll, Cowan & Binns as yet to be proven for AFL but not outside selection
Leaves developers with limited expectations (6) in Lemmey, HOK, Akuei, Mirkov, Duffy, Monahan
 

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Thoughts, and an early crack for fun:

My rankings:

1. Harley Reid
2. Jed Walter
3. Colby McKercher
4. Ethan Read
5. Conor O'Sullivan
6. James Leake
7. Zane Duursma
8. Nick Watson
9. Nate Caddy
10. Lance Collard
11. Ryley Sanders
12. Daniel Curtin
13. Will McCabe
14. Caleb Windsor
15. Jordan Croft

and a crack at a Phantom 1st Rd:

1. WC Harley Reid
2. NM Colby McKercher
3. GC Jed Walter - i think NM got a favourable deal off GC in a trade to skip a bid spot to here. We'll see.
4. NM Zane Duursma
5. Haw Nick Watson
6. WB Ryley Sanders
7. GC Ethan Read
8. Mel Daniel Curtin - i'll put Melb here, but it wouldn't shock to see a trade to WC here involving WC future 1st.
9. GWS Caleb Windsor
10. Gee Nate Caddy
11. Ess James Leake
12. Ade Conor O'Sullivan
13. Ade Darcy Wilson - i've got Melb trading this pick 11 for Adelaide's 14 and 20. Personally i dunno why, but Adel seem to love Wilson, and i see Melb seeing better value from the 2 later picks.
14. Haw Will McCabe
15. WB Jordan Croft
16. Syd Arie Schoenmaker
17. GC Jake Rogers
18. StK Koltyn Tholstrup
19. Melb Harry Demettier
20. NM Lance Collard
21. GWS Joel Freijah
22. NM Ollie Murphy
23. NM Luke Lloyd
24. Coll Archer Reid
25. Melb Will Green
26. StK Charlie Edwards
27 Carl - i'll leave this open so it don't look like i've left a player for us lol...which i haven't.
Arrow this parts urs
 
Thoughts, and an early crack for fun:

My rankings:

1. Harley Reid
2. Jed Walter
3. Colby McKercher
4. Ethan Read
5. Conor O'Sullivan
6. James Leake
7. Zane Duursma
8. Nick Watson
9. Nate Caddy
10. Lance Collard
11. Ryley Sanders
12. Daniel Curtin
13. Will McCabe
14. Caleb Windsor
15. Jordan Croft

and a crack at a Phantom 1st Rd:

1. WC Harley Reid
2. NM Colby McKercher
3. GC Jed Walter - i think NM got a favourable deal off GC in a trade to skip a bid spot to here. We'll see.
4. NM Zane Duursma
5. Haw Nick Watson
6. WB Ryley Sanders
7. GC Ethan Read
8. Mel Daniel Curtin - i'll put Melb here, but it wouldn't shock to see a trade to WC here involving WC future 1st.
9. GWS Caleb Windsor
10. Gee Nate Caddy
11. Ess James Leake
12. Ade Conor O'Sullivan
13. Ade Darcy Wilson - i've got Melb trading this pick 11 for Adelaide's 14 and 20. Personally i dunno why, but Adel seem to love Wilson, and i see Melb seeing better value from the 2 later picks.
14. Haw Will McCabe
15. WB Jordan Croft
16. Syd Arie Schoenmaker
17. GC Jake Rogers
18. StK Koltyn Tholstrup
19. Melb Harry Demettier
20. NM Lance Collard
21. GWS Joel Freijah
22. NM Ollie Murphy
23. NM Luke Lloyd
24. Coll Archer Reid
25. Melb Will Green
26. StK Charlie Edwards
27 Carl - i'll leave this open so it don't look like i've left a player for us lol...which i haven't.
Archie Roberts
 
I don't propose to be any sort of expert at all, but would this work? And would they be remotely interested??

We swap with the Giants picks 22, 28 and 70 for their pick 7 and 59. Would probably have to throw in a future third round pick (do we actually have one??)

Go to the draft and use picks 7 and 59, 78 is an upgrade (Cotters??)

Points seem similar, gives us a chance at the likes of Sanders, O'Sullivan, and maybe a Curtain??

Dreaming?? Tossing?? No Idea??

I'd suggest it's quite unlikely. If GWS had an academy kid rated in the top 5, there might be a package of later picks that benefits them. But they don't have any of those this year, so the offer is basically a top 10 pick for two picks in the late 20s (once other academy bids are done).

The way to look at it is - if swapping 22 and 28 for 7 appeals greatly to us, what appeal is there for GWS to go the other way?

Absent a need for academy bid points, they'd have to hold minimal interest in the players at 7-10 in the draft, but like a couple of less-fancied players.

The more realistic scenario would be that they're really hot on one particular player at the top end, that player goes at 5 or 6, and we convince them to swap Pick 7 for pick 22 and our future first. Even that might not be enough, and a swap of later picks in their favour could be required.
 
The way to look at it is - if swapping 22 and 28 for 7 appeals greatly to us, what appeal is there for GWS to go the other way?
The only reason would be so they can get additional picks in the top end of the draft.

They currently have 5 live picks in the ND at 7, 16, 43, 59, 77 - so after their first 2 picks, it's slim pickings for their next 3.

Not sure if they'd be too keen to trade out pick 7, but hypothetically if they did, they end up with picks 16, 22, 28, 43 and 59 - so they could take 4 picks and leave a spot open.

I can see them offering their pick 16 and 43 for 22 and 28, but I personally wouldn't accept that deal unless we're specifically targeting someone.
 
I think we'll have hopes on a call from the Cats on draft night, but most likely they just lock in their pick. Probably a good thing our F1 isn't a massive lure at present.
 
I can see them offering their pick 16 and 43 for 22 and 28, but I personally wouldn't accept that deal unless we're specifically targeting someone.

I think that's the most realistic option if there is someone we specifically want and are happy to go a mature age type with our 2nd pick.

Could also do 22 plus F2 for 16 and 43. Then flick 28 to someone else for an F2. That's if GWS would rather another pick in next year's draft.

I don't see anyone below GWS 16 trading unless we involve pur F1 and that's just not worth it for who is available at that range.
 
I think that's the most realistic option if there is someone we specifically want and are happy to go a mature age type with our 2nd pick.

Could also do 22 plus F2 for 16 and 43. Then flick 28 to someone else for an F2. That's if GWS would rather another pick in next year's draft.

I don't see anyone below GWS 16 trading unless we involve pur F1 and that's just not worth it for who is available at that range.
We could have just kept 17 and asked the Roos for a pick in the 40s. Just going back to where we began.
 
For all the “select for needs” IMO it’s bullshit.
You take the best possible player at every pick (within reason - u can’t recruit 3 small forwards etc).
Quality is quality, if u land a very good player, u trade out whoever they replace & hunt a player in the system for the need. Unless it’s a very specific kid (ruck) where they end up on the ground is a guess - Caleb Daniels is a great example
I don`t think it`s bullshit if your list does not contain the type of player who plays in a particular position, but if your list has a good balance across every position then you recruit for depth I guess. So depending on the circumstances it should come down to "needs" v "depth" just for the overall improvement of the list. I remember the list manager we had (Wayne Hughes) back in the "wasted years" of our list building and he chose three players that were all half-back flanker stereotypes in the one draft, which was piss poor and didn`t improve us at all as a team!!! You don`t want to go down that path when your trying to become a better team and end up having too many multiple players for the one position........that`s my read of it anyway.
 
I don`t think it`s bullshit if your list does not contain the type of player who plays in a particular position, but if your list has a good balance across every position then you recruit for depth I guess. So depending on the circumstances it should come down to "needs" v "depth" just for the overall improvement of the list. I remember the list manager we had (Wayne Hughes) back in the "wasted years" of our list building and he chose three players that were all half-back flanker stereotypes in the one draft, which was piss poor and didn`t improve us at all as a team!!! You don`t want to go down that path when you’re trying to become a better team and end up having too many multiple players for the one position........that`s my read of it anyway.
Don’t disagree with that, as I said, within reason (not selecting multiples of the same) or specific role.

Was alluding to “mid/forward” who ends up HB, key forward who ends up a defender etc
The kids are played in multiple positions in various teams.

Don’t forget Steel Sidearse kicked 10 in the TAC finals.
You would have sworn u were recruiting some sort of forward - not an AA wing

Harley Reid came out and said it was hard to find consistency playing for so many different teams & that’s from the gun mid.

Structure, roles, cover & gelling with team mates allows for peak performance- the kids don’t really get that in the carnival/limited rep teams. And they are all trying to shine.

It’s really hard to define position for most.
 

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Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

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