Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

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ESPN's top 50 really makes it seem like the year you would hope to be looking at a ruckman or a HBFer. Plenty of options to choose from in those two positions. Will be interesting to see who we go for.
 

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Our list is already very solid. It's time to take some high upside gambles to get us over the top.
Agree with this. Rather than getting reasonable guys with okay ceiling and just 'next best guy', I would rather - at least with our second pick - us look at guys who have 1 or 2 truly elite traits with the added work ethic/attitude, then aim to focus on bringing their 'weaknesses' up to speed and highlight their elite trait. Rather than trying to raise the ceiling across the board for a kid who has no true standout or elite trait (I'm talking top 5 in the draft).

Basically, guys like some of those mentioned who went late for whatever reason but had elite traits to work with and came good.

Chances are it won't work out (as most don't) but I'd rather have one great throw at the stumps from the boundary than a reasonable throw from the outfield with one hand tied behind my back (not sure that metaphor makes sense, but just go with it).

Basically, at least one really interesting risk/reward pick with an elite trait or two over a more vanilla pick.
 
Our list is good. Our best 22 is good. But is it premiership quality? I think our drafting is more about upgrading on regular members of our best 22 rather than developing depth.

Two way runners needs to be priority recruitment wise. We lack that a bit.

Backline.

Key defender depth is good. Weitering goes down there is Durdin and Young who are good depth. Third/Second tall depth. There's plenty there with McGovern, Kemp, Marchbank. Smaller defender depth gets sketchy. We played smaller defenders who are one way (defend only) types last season which suggests that the depth there is borderline. Having three two way running small half back types in the backline is key for us next season.

Two way defenders. Boyd has become a two way defender. Williams and Saad are two way defenders. These guys will occupy the half back line and rotate between there and back pocket. Newman is a two way defender who is more a back pocket than half back and often takes the really good forwards. Cincotta is a two way running defender at VFL level but is one way at AFL level. Docherty is a two way running defender but didn't play much defence this season and likely won't next season.

We recruited Cowan with the idea of him becoming a two way running defender, he became that at VFL level but has not yet at AFL level. Hopefully he does. Will Cincotta become a two way running defender? Not sure.

I think the backline is good and doesn't need recruiting for but it wasn't good how we had to revert to a few one way running types this season after a few injuries.

We should be right if injuries hold up. Cowan comes on. Docherty is backup here. Cincotta is handy to come in and out of the side when needed. Think we are good.


Forward

Our two key forwards are locked in. We haven't got great depth for them but I don't think maintaining our two key forward structure is super important if we get the rest right. DeKoning is coming on there. SOS can fill in a bit as a second tall. We recruited Lemmy for tall forward depth last year. I'm not sure adding a tall 18 year old tall forward does much for our list and we did that last season. No point adding another.

What we are lacking is two way running small forwards. The day of the small forward who sits in the forward pocket, kicks goals and doesn't defend is long gone. We have a fair few role players in the side. One way small forwards. Either kick goals and don't defend or they defend and don't kick goals or get much footy.

Fogarty played a lot of games, doesn't kick goals, get the ball a lot or use it well. Motlop kicks goals but struggles to nullify two way running defenders who run off him. Owies seems to do a bit in regards to two way running but just lacks a little pace to be really good in this area. Cuningham seems to do a good job defensively but on the attack can go missing. Cottrell isn't a big goal kicker, he does seem to be ok defensively.

We were smashed by Brisbane in the final which had a lot to do with our small forwards not being able to go with their men. Other times we are criticised for our smalls not kicking enough goals or being too slow.

So while our role players are doing a fair job up forward. We haven't really got those small players who have elite speed to apply elite pressure, run both ways to stop the opposition half backs cutting us to pieces and be able to get forward quickly and kick goals and setup goals.

We could probably fit in an elite small forward here and are hoping Fantasia can do that. Hoping Motlop develops and improves his tank. We need a bit to happen here.

Midfield

Our midfield is fairly strong ball winning and contested wise but has some weak spots in regards to general play. Two way run is the main one. In the modern game your mids need good endurance and speed to two way run. Speed being more important now as the ball movement in the game has increased. So many times we get caught defending really well but not being able to move the ball. In finals we did that, defended really well but on the rebound we struggled. Our ball movement struggled. A lot of that was from lack of two way running mids. Cerra and Walsh take the brunt of our two way run, they carry us in a big way. Cripps is locked in our side and is a one way runner, either parked forward or behind the ball. Kennedy and Hewett are the same. They have to play forward or play behind the ball and attend stoppages. Two or three one way runners in the side is getting a bit much, especially when teams are moving on from that. It's a problem for us. We need more two way run in the middle. This is where our ball movement issues stem from.

We tend to be a team that is either defending really well but not moving the ball well and hence not scoring or we are a team dominating clearances and scoring freely. We don't transition well from defence which hurts our forwards. Too reliant on defending and clearance to win big games.

Wing wise we are really strong, no need to add more here.

Adding another good inside mid who can extract and win contested ball but also run both ways is super important for us. There are too few in the middle carrying the load of two way running in our onball group. We are carrying too many one way runners in our onball group.

Does Hollands come in as an inside mid who can two way run? Does Docherty spend more time in the middle?

Our midfield is not a finished article in my opinion and will struggle to take it up to the quicker better two way running side unless we improve here.


Conclusion

I think improvement comes from more two way running players. The forward line and the onball group is where the two way running is lacking.

Add a forward or two who can kick goals, apply pressure and run with the good running defenders of the game takes us forward a long way.

Add another inside mid who can get behind the ball quickly but really run forward at pace and give us something on the transition forward, this to me is something we badly lack. We don't have enough of them in the side. Ideally I only want to see one one way runner in our midfield and that is Cripps. Start carrying two or three in there as we have most of this season, it becomes an issue. We are going to be very very hard to beat when we maintain our defensive capabilities but improve our offensive capabilities buy improving our ball movement and getting the ball in quickly to an open forward line where McKay and Curnow have some space to work in.

Priorities need to be a quality two way running onballer and fast two way running small forward options.

Hollands and Fantasia kind of tick that box a bit but I think those priorities need to remain.
 
Why do we need another ruckman?
I think ideally you have

Main ruck
Backup ruck or ruck/fwd
Developing ruck
Non-ruck who can cover at a pinch

Any more than that and you're spending too much salary cap and list space for 1-1.5 spots in the team.

Any more than that and the 4th ruck onwards get frustrated and leave.

We have

Main - Pitto
Ruck/fwd - TDK
Developing - O'Keefe
Emergency - SOS/Young

I think we're good while we have all those on the list. And that's ignoring Mirkov too.
 
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Schonemaker for me 😂
Nah, better someone else recruits him.

So we can spend the next 10-12 years arguing we should recruit him because he supported us as a kid...
 
Nah, better someone else recruits him.

So we can spend the next 10-12 years arguing we should recruit him because he supported us as a kid...
And Geelong supporters spending the next 10-12 years feeling they are entitled to Harley Reid because he barracked for them as a kid, and apparently stopped by Ripper Roasts one day on his way down to the surf coast with the family.

Some of them might even argue that Tongala is an outer suburb of Geelong - even though it's actually halfway between Shepparton and Echuca - so of course they need to 'bring the boy home'...
 
And Geelong supporters spending the next 10-12 years feeling they are entitled to Harley Reid because he barracked for them as a kid, and apparently stopped by Ripper Roasts one day on his way down to the surf coast with the family.

Some of them might even argue that Tongala is an outer suburb of Geelong - even though it's actually halfway between Shepparton and Echuca - so of course they need to 'bring the boy home'...
image.jpg

Ocean Grove land for sale. Quoting $1,000,000 to $1,100,000 or $1.50 if your name is Harley Reid.
 

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Our list is good. Our best 22 is good. But is it premiership quality? I think our drafting is more about upgrading on regular members of our best 22 rather than developing depth.

Two way runners needs to be priority recruitment wise. We lack that a bit.

Backline.

Key defender depth is good. Weitering goes down there is Durdin and Young who are good depth. Third/Second tall depth. There's plenty there with McGovern, Kemp, Marchbank. Smaller defender depth gets sketchy. We played smaller defenders who are one way (defend only) types last season which suggests that the depth there is borderline. Having three two way running small half back types in the backline is key for us next season.

Two way defenders. Boyd has become a two way defender. Williams and Saad are two way defenders. These guys will occupy the half back line and rotate between there and back pocket. Newman is a two way defender who is more a back pocket than half back and often takes the really good forwards. Cincotta is a two way running defender at VFL level but is one way at AFL level. Docherty is a two way running defender but didn't play much defence this season and likely won't next season.

We recruited Cowan with the idea of him becoming a two way running defender, he became that at VFL level but has not yet at AFL level. Hopefully he does. Will Cincotta become a two way running defender? Not sure.

I think the backline is good and doesn't need recruiting for but it wasn't good how we had to revert to a few one way running types this season after a few injuries.

We should be right if injuries hold up. Cowan comes on. Docherty is backup here. Cincotta is handy to come in and out of the side when needed. Think we are good.


Forward

Our two key forwards are locked in. We haven't got great depth for them but I don't think maintaining our two key forward structure is super important if we get the rest right. DeKoning is coming on there. SOS can fill in a bit as a second tall. We recruited Lemmy for tall forward depth last year. I'm not sure adding a tall 18 year old tall forward does much for our list and we did that last season. No point adding another.

What we are lacking is two way running small forwards. The day of the small forward who sits in the forward pocket, kicks goals and doesn't defend is long gone. We have a fair few role players in the side. One way small forwards. Either kick goals and don't defend or they defend and don't kick goals or get much footy.

Fogarty played a lot of games, doesn't kick goals, get the ball a lot or use it well. Motlop kicks goals but struggles to nullify two way running defenders who run off him. Owies seems to do a bit in regards to two way running but just lacks a little pace to be really good in this area. Cuningham seems to do a good job defensively but on the attack can go missing. Cottrell isn't a big goal kicker, he does seem to be ok defensively.

We were smashed by Brisbane in the final which had a lot to do with our small forwards not being able to go with their men. Other times we are criticised for our smalls not kicking enough goals or being too slow.

So while our role players are doing a fair job up forward. We haven't really got those small players who have elite speed to apply elite pressure, run both ways to stop the opposition half backs cutting us to pieces and be able to get forward quickly and kick goals and setup goals.

We could probably fit in an elite small forward here and are hoping Fantasia can do that. Hoping Motlop develops and improves his tank. We need a bit to happen here.

Midfield

Our midfield is fairly strong ball winning and contested wise but has some weak spots in regards to general play. Two way run is the main one. In the modern game your mids need good endurance and speed to two way run. Speed being more important now as the ball movement in the game has increased. So many times we get caught defending really well but not being able to move the ball. In finals we did that, defended really well but on the rebound we struggled. Our ball movement struggled. A lot of that was from lack of two way running mids. Cerra and Walsh take the brunt of our two way run, they carry us in a big way. Cripps is locked in our side and is a one way runner, either parked forward or behind the ball. Kennedy and Hewett are the same. They have to play forward or play behind the ball and attend stoppages. Two or three one way runners in the side is getting a bit much, especially when teams are moving on from that. It's a problem for us. We need more two way run in the middle. This is where our ball movement issues stem from.

We tend to be a team that is either defending really well but not moving the ball well and hence not scoring or we are a team dominating clearances and scoring freely. We don't transition well from defence which hurts our forwards. Too reliant on defending and clearance to win big games.

Wing wise we are really strong, no need to add more here.

Adding another good inside mid who can extract and win contested ball but also run both ways is super important for us. There are too few in the middle carrying the load of two way running in our onball group. We are carrying too many one way runners in our onball group.

Does Hollands come in as an inside mid who can two way run? Does Docherty spend more time in the middle?

Our midfield is not a finished article in my opinion and will struggle to take it up to the quicker better two way running side unless we improve here.


Conclusion

I think improvement comes from more two way running players. The forward line and the onball group is where the two way running is lacking.

Add a forward or two who can kick goals, apply pressure and run with the good running defenders of the game takes us forward a long way.

Add another inside mid who can get behind the ball quickly but really run forward at pace and give us something on the transition forward, this to me is something we badly lack. We don't have enough of them in the side. Ideally I only want to see one one way runner in our midfield and that is Cripps. Start carrying two or three in there as we have most of this season, it becomes an issue. We are going to be very very hard to beat when we maintain our defensive capabilities but improve our offensive capabilities buy improving our ball movement and getting the ball in quickly to an open forward line where McKay and Curnow have some space to work in.

Priorities need to be a quality two way running onballer and fast two way running small forward options.

Hollands and Fantasia kind of tick that box a bit but I think those priorities need to remain.
Our Midfield needs a lot more depth, and I think is our most volatile area. Even with everyone we have fit,
Kennedy & Hewitt (as you mentioned) aren't 2 way runners and although they battle hard, they are limited.

This year we Delisted/Traded Ed Curnow, Paddy Dow, Zac Fisher, Lochie O'Brien & Sam Philp, who were all rotated through the midfield as well as O'Brien & Curnow being excellent 2-way runners.

We don't have much in development in this area and even with the Campo twins coming onboard next year they will take a while to develop. I think we need 1 more Marquis speedy 2-way mid with skills. Bailey Smith would be ideal.

I'm hoping Cuningham can step up in the midfield but he seems to fade out as soon as he builds some form.

I also think Williams 100% needs to play Mid/fwd.

Harley Reid sure would help too. :(
 
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Hard not to like the profile of Tholstrup currently on AFL.com

Might be worth considering attempting to trade up a few spots. We have “suggested” that our target should be there as the picks stand though.
My issue with Tholstrup is that his profile reads better than how he actually looks in game. Sometimes it's just the poor quality cameras that film the u18 games but whenever I watch him I just don't see the explosive beast he's described as.

Combine results made it even more confusing as he blitzed them too.

Wish I could have watched him play in person to see him up close. My uncle who recruits over in WA loves him as a prospect too
 
Hard not to like the profile of Tholstrup currently on AFL.com

Might be worth considering attempting to trade up a few spots. We have “suggested” that our target should be there as the picks stand though.
Would love to trade up for one of Wilson, Windsor or Tholstrup. Not as sure who my favouites are if we hang on to 22 and 28
 
Our Midfield needs a lot more depth, and I think is our most volatile area. Even with everyone we have fit,
Kennedy & Hewitt (as you mentioned) aren't 2 way runners and although they battle hard, they are limited.

This year we Delisted/Traded Ed Curnow, Paddy Dow, Zac Fisher, Lochie O'Brien & Sam Philp, who were all rotated through the midfield as well as O'Brien & Curnow being excellent 2-way runners.

We don't have much in development in this area and even with the Campo twins coming onboard next year they will take a while to develop. I think we need 1 more Marquis speedy 2-way mid with skills. Bailey Smith would be ideal.

I'm hoping Cuningham can step up in the midfield but he seems to fade out as soon as he builds some form.

I also think Williams 100% needs to play Mid/fwd.

Harley Reid sure would help too. :(

I disagree.

Curnow and O'Brien didn't factor at all in 2023.

The former played a few games, but was pretty much ineffectual.

We have added the older Hollands, renowned for his running, and Binns too is a terrific runner.

Name another team that has a bunch of runners like Hollands (x2), Binns, Cotters, Walsh and Acres.

Those first five would all run 2km in sub 6 minutes. Acres close too.

The first three are evolving talents and Cotters has stepped it up a few notches every season thus far.

In perspective, this year's national combine? Only 3 made it under 6 minutes.

1699480653256.png
In the State combines, the best 2km result in SA was 6.15, in WA, 6.27!

Gee, I'd like to be limited like Kennedy or Hewett!

Kennedy, before that knee injury, was arguably in career best form.

He is not slow - at all. And ran a 15 odd beep test back in his draft year....

(i agree there were a couple of years, with badly interrupted pre seasons when he wasn't moving well)

Hewett is one of the best stoppers in the comp - and wins his own ball too.

We stuffed our season with that extended poor patch mid season.

Coming back from that cost us enormously physically and mentally.

Then injuries to Crippa and likely Charlie too (and guys like Harry, Kennedy off the pace post injury) - the cards didn't fall our way.

Contrast the Pies, if the Dees had won that first final, we would have sent the Pies off whimpering the following week.

C'est la vie!
 
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I think the ideal player we are after is a Chris Yarran clone, remember the sublime skill on both feet, the balance and way he would glide on top of the ground, the speed and audacity to use it and take the game on, the goal nous and ability to lift the team and crowd with something from nothing... Most skilful player to ever play the game.
Hope Chris is doing well in life now and thank you for all your highlights, the most electric the game has ever seen. God bless.
 
I think the ideal player we are after is a Chris Yarran clone, remember the sublime skill on both feet, the balance and way he would glide on top of the ground, the speed and audacity to use it and take the game on, the goal nous and ability to lift the team and crowd with something from nothing... Most skilful player to ever play the game.
Hope Chris is doing well in life now and thank you for all your highlights, the most electric the game has ever seen. God bless.
Wilson is probably the closest thing to Yarran in this draft but he's still not close to what Yarran was. Players like Yarran don't come around too often, was as skilled and silky as they come.
 
I think the ideal player we are after is a Chris Yarran clone, remember the sublime skill on both feet, the balance and way he would glide on top of the ground, the speed and audacity to use it and take the game on, the goal nous and ability to lift the team and crowd with something from nothing... Most skilful player to ever play the game.
Hope Chris is doing well in life now and thank you for all your highlights, the most electric the game has ever seen. God bless.
 

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Analysis 2023 Draft Watch

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