Trades 2023 Fantasy Round 9 Trades

[Neale4brownlow]

I’ll probably trade next week. I’ve got Greene who’s burning cash and needs to go.

Yeh thats my preffered move atm too.

If Greene had stayed steady I would've been cashing in Chandler this week for a proper upgrade.

 

[Yellow Feathers]

2.
Setterfield - Laird
Greene - Fahey

Both Mills & Bailey Smith need another look IMO

Onya legend! Lock it in.

 

[Exambolor]

Jhye Clark to officially debut this week. Could be a downgrade next week but has the Top 10 pick tax added to his price

 

[mockingbeat]

What's a bigger priority?

Upgrading Callaghan to a premo/keeper or getting Pedlar off field for a Fiorini?

 

[Exambolor]

What's a bigger priority?

Upgrading Callaghan to a premo/keeper or getting Pedlar off field for a Fiorini?

Callaghan is still scoring ok so get Pedlar off your field for sure

 

[tigs2010]

Jhye Clark to officially debut this week. Could be a downgrade next week but has the Top 10 pick tax added to his price

As sub or on field?

 

[Exambolor]

As sub or on field?

Knowing Chris Scott’s tactics it would be sub, but I think they’d play him on field as a Danger replacement.

 

[Gold_Cat]

Yeah, good feedback. I'm torn on the two. Mills feels lower risk, but is gettable next week. If Brayshaw goes off, he probably isn't. But I'm not completely sold on Brayshaw being 'back' - especially with the niggles, forward talk, small sample size of dominance and two tough matches to come.

But I'm also cognisant of probably not wanting both as I've already got Sinclair, Marshall, Gulden, Dunkley & one of these guys as week 1 bye keepers (+ maybe Ashcroft/Wilmot), so if I go to 6 with them both, it's probably one too many. I reckon if I let Brayshaw slip, by the time he's out of his bye he might still be 940k-ish as that 150 odd would have nearly left his price.

In line with your advice, a potential option to get both Brayshaw and Atkins, would be the following, (but would leave me fielding all 3 of Chandler, Atkins and Cincotta, but with cash on Wilmot & Pedlar's heads could upgrade Chandler next week and whichever of Ashcroft/Pickett stays the following week)

Pickett/Ashcroft -> Atkins, Worpel -> Brayshaw. I guess the question is is losing Pickett/Ashcroft ahead of Pedlar/Chandler worth getting Brayshaw over Mills.

Good points on Brayshaw. Did some digging and only Tom Green has gone 120+ as a midfielder at the SCG this year from 3 games of data. then he faces Geelong who have only given up one 120+ score this year to a midfielder , Darcy Parish.

I think that move (leaving 3 on field) is worth it, yes, on the basis of some favourable matchups this week (Atkins v WCE and Chandler v Hawthorn) and Mills is achievable next week.

I'm trying to figure out whether i do Setterfield > Fiorini or Jones > Drury. The first option means i can only afford Mills and the second option means i can grab Brayshaw and keep Worpel who becomes Mills next week.

There's also Dom Sheed (instead of Fiorini). It's a POD move over those who've gone Fiorini in the hope Sheed cashes in on his good run of gams coming up and ample opportunity. Scored 111 on the weekend.

 

[Phar Ace]

Wouldn't mind unpacking your feel on Bedford a little more. It's interesting. Priced at 43, started the season priced at 41. Played 7 matches last year but only 2 were as medisub, and he got 50% TOG those times. So as that pressure forward, he was a 43 guy at the Dees. Moved to the Giants, where Ian Hill hasn't been fantasy relevant as a small forward ever and Brent Daniels (until this year-ish) either despite being a very good footballer.

Scored 32 in his first game back as a pressure forward, no CBAs.
Scored 77 in his second game back as a pressure forward, moved into the onball rotation 2nd half for 26% CBAs.

Was on 35 @ HT v Giants (53 3QT) before the CBA move, most of that 26% came in Q4 I reckon. So was already on a solid game by his historical numbers in that role and didn't blow the house down in Q4 or anything.

Is the rationale behind him just based off one quarter of pinch hit/impact CBAs? Or is there more. I'm odd on it as I really like him - he looks like a bloody good footballer and always has to me. But if he plays mainly pressure forward, he's a 45 guy to me and priced fairly. Even at 20% CBAs long term I can see him being an 80 guy or equivalent in that stoppage role, but if that's only for 1/4 of the game it only drags him up to 50-55 and there's probably not value there.

Yeah, he's an interesting one Skip. Drafted 2018, and playing his first game 2020 - you know what a year that was for young ones. He had ten games in 2022, 8 as a med sub, 6 times unused. Dees wanted to keep him (he's nearly 23 now), and he had a 3 year contract on the table when he chose to go to GWS for more opportunity. Had a few in front of him at Demons.

I had him in my early starting 22 Round 1, but he was unlucky to do his hammie seriously enough to know he wasn't starting the season. He had trained so well up to that point too - there was high optimism for him.

My take on him is he is a little like Shai Bolton at the Tiges, has some great ground moves, his speed and tackling are a feature of his game. There will be some ups and down with him Fantasy wise, but if you can afford that, he will roll through to being a $500 to $600k player pretty quickly I think. Pressure fwds are hard games styles for Fantasy, but he will get to roll through the mids, especially late because he is naturally so fit.

 

[Phar Ace]

I need to ditch Round 14 byes, I have a lot of them.

Yep, started work on that last week - was overwhelmed with them that week

 

[Phar Ace]

Gm. Thoughts?
1.
Setterfield - Mills
LDU - Bailey Smith
Vs
2.
Setterfield - Laird
Greene - Fahey
(Give LDU another week as the role is there)

Really like the first

 

[Cotchy9]

Atkins didn’t make the trip to Perth according to another forum. Screenshot of a message from Atkins supposedly

 

[Exambolor]

Yeah, he's an interesting one Skip. Drafted 2018, and playing his first game 2020 - you know what a year that was for young ones. He had ten games in 2022, 8 as a med sub, 6 times unused. Dees wanted to keep him (he's nearly 23 now), and he had a 3 year contract on the table when he chose to go to GWS for more opportunity. Had a few in front of him at Demons.

I had him in my early starting 22 Round 1, but he was unlucky to do his hammie seriously enough to know he wasn't starting the season. He had trained so well up to that point too - there was high optimism for him.

My take on him is he is a little like Shai Bolton at the Tiges, has some great ground moves, his speed and tackling are a feature of his game. There will be some ups and down with him Fantasy wise, but if you can afford that, he will roll through to being a $500 to $600k player pretty quickly I think. Pressure fwds are hard games styles for Fantasy, but he will get to roll through the mids, especially late because he is naturally so fit.

That’s why I went with him. Has upside and is good enough to run at F6 for a few weeks.

 

[Exambolor]

Atkins didn’t make the trip to Perth according to another forum. Screenshot of a message from Atkins supposedly

The carnage for the people who traded him in last week…..

 

[Cotchy9]

The carnage for the people who traded him in last week…..

Means I can’t move a rookie. But I’ll just take him up to Fiorini I think. I’m pretty comfortable Fiorini can average 90 odd

 

[Exambolor]

Means I can’t move a rookie. But I’ll just take him up to Fiorini I think. I’m pretty comfortable Fiorini can average 90 odd

And to add to your previous post, Suns board have mentioned the club have sent Sam Day and Chris Burgess to Perth. So it may confirm that Atkins rumour more. Gotta wait until 6:20 to know for sure

 

[amazingjoshy]

Atkins didn’t make the trip to Perth according to another forum. Screenshot of a message from Atkins supposedly

Can't argue with those screenshots, always legit

 

[Cotchy9]

Can't argue with those screenshots, always legit

It’s his exact Instagram handle but wait and see I guess

 

[mockingbeat]

Anyone got a copy of the screenshot?

 

[freo_leo29]

It’s his exact Instagram handle but wait and see I guess

Well they're not going to shop in a fake handle

 

[Skippos]

Good points on Brayshaw. Did some digging and only Tom Green has gone 120+ as a midfielder at the SCG this year from 3 games of data. then he faces Geelong who have only given up one 120+ score this year to a midfielder , Darcy Parish.

I think that move (leaving 3 on field) is worth it, yes, on the basis of some favourable matchups this week (Atkins v WCE and Chandler v Hawthorn) and Mills is achievable next week.

I'm trying to figure out whether i do Setterfield > Fiorini or Jones > Drury. The first option means i can only afford Mills and the second option means i can grab Brayshaw and keep Worpel who becomes Mills next week.

There's also Dom Sheed (instead of Fiorini). It's a POD move over those who've gone Fiorini in the hope Sheed cashes in on his good run of gams coming up and ample opportunity. Scored 111 on the weekend.

Setterfield has to go, IMO. He's clearly (and incorrectly, IMO. I'd have him in there over Shiel hands down) out of their mix and a liability. The below isn't just at you, but as a general pitch for anyone thinking about it against bringing in Fiorini, made by a Fiorini owner (full disclosure).

But is Fiorini the answer? Juicy matchup this week and probably burns you if you don't go for it, but beyond that, I reckon it's pain. I look at blokes like him (and to a lesser extent because of price, Atkins) like this - they're finite.

They're not keepers, they're stepping stones we've jumped on because of situational reasons (in this case, additional short term job security, not the sub, modification to GC gamestyle rewarding outside players, Touk's injury, good bye) that have an end date.

That end date is whichever of the following come first: Touk & Weller return, Dew gets sick of Fiorini, week following the byes (6 matches for Fiorini from now).

Each week longer you wait on him, the higher he's priced, and the less resource he has left before one of the above happen (minorly offset by the avoidance of risk associated with waiting to see him again, and again).

He's currently priced at 603k (71 ppg).

Compared to those who bought him after Touk went down (at 523k priced at 62) you've already conceded 80k cash gen and 77 points above what he was priced at to them.

Compared to those who bought him after the Richmond game (at 559k priced at 66) you've already conceded 44k cash gen and 23 points above what he was priced at to them.

You don't get those back, and buying him now confers you no advantage they've received for owning him. It's a sunk cost. People seem to miss that sometimes I think. The following is clear about Fiorini:

• he's playing a clear wing role. in that role, the richmond game score is unlikely to be repeated.
• after this week, he has three night games against generally restrictive opposition, one at the Gabba, two in Darwin. Notoriously run-based grounds with some humidity than makes kick/mark a challenge sometimes. Darwin/Cairns are low fantasy total match score grounds.
• His maximum 'end point' is 6 weeks from now. there is every chance that comes sooner depending on miller/dew.

If he goes at 85s from here, you'll get 100k of cash gen over that 6 week period and 84 points above what you buy him at. You've already conceded nearly that much cash and points above price to those who got on early. And you're still taking on all the long term risk.

At that level of upside, he's not worth it. He's only worth it if you think he'll go at 90-95+ for the next 6 weeks. I don't think he will. There are better options. I got on him begrudgingly at 45k cheaper, I wouldn't have jumped on this week if I let him pass last week given the value that's diminished and the extra week closer we are to 'Fiorini-armageddon'.

 

[Skippos]

Yeah, he's an interesting one Skip. Drafted 2018, and playing his first game 2020 - you know what a year that was for young ones. He had ten games in 2022, 8 as a med sub, 6 times unused. Dees wanted to keep him (he's nearly 23 now), and he had a 3 year contract on the table when he chose to go to GWS for more opportunity. Had a few in front of him at Demons.

I had him in my early starting 22 Round 1, but he was unlucky to do his hammie seriously enough to know he wasn't starting the season. He had trained so well up to that point too - there was high optimism for him.

My take on him is he is a little like Shai Bolton at the Tiges, has some great ground moves, his speed and tackling are a feature of his game. There will be some ups and down with him Fantasy wise, but if you can afford that, he will roll through to being a $500 to $600k player pretty quickly I think. Pressure fwds are hard games styles for Fantasy, but he will get to roll through the mids, especially late because he is naturally so fit.

Interesting take. Football-wise, I agree with a lot of it. I think Bedford is an excellent player - and that really matters to me. Normally pretty good at these games by backing in the good footballers and avoiding the risk on sugar hits by those who aren't (which is why Fiorini hurts). Potentially one I'd be interested in waiting another week on given the not horrendous breakeven and the oppo this week being notoriously restrictive.

 

[no_undie_mundie]

Is Fahey gonna get named??

 

[Cotchy9]

Anyone got a copy of the screenshot?

 

[Phar Ace]

The carnage for the people who traded him in last week…..

Yep, training photos indicated he wasn't among them (yet?)