AFL 2023 Grand Final - Collingwood vs Brisbane

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kicksome said:
I really can't see pies losing this, it just seems like it's going to be their flag from a long way out. Everyone has bought in to the mcrea way.
Lions are 1 from their last 15 at the MCG, and that was against Melbourne in a final last year where it felt like Melbourne threw it away. It will be about 85 thousand collingwood supporters out of 100, Brisbane are just going to be absolutely shell shocked.
The blues absolutely pantsed them with their pressure in the first quarter last week and the pies will be able to do that for a lot longer.
Apart from Lachie neale their midfield drops away very quickly.
I think $1.75 for pies is an absolute gift, and I'm going to have a good go at pies 40+ at $6

Unfortunately for the neutral supporter I think this will be a disappointing grand final.
Would be happy for Brisbane to prove me wrong and show some ticker
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hmmm Brisbane have shown too much poise to bounce back last week to be thrashed vs Pies I feel as I just can't see Pies suddenly kicking 90-100 points easily and keeping brisbane to a 50 type score so I can't see the game being dissapointing.. do agree on Pies winning this but... Ginnivan definately should play full game. noble as impact sub he deserves his spot in team... I wouldn't go Frampton... it's going to be warm fast and dry an extra runner or pace will create havoc up forward with Ginni and Hill roaming around!! can always throw Howe forward if need be
 
demon_fanatic said:
interesting.. pointsbet has Norm Smith Medal to poll a vote markets.. that's pretty good value considering what there's 5 judges right?? so you get basically 15 shots at it?? voting is 3-2-1..

just need to predict which pies will fire if you think they are the ones to win as most votes will be their players.. might go the experienced guys like Crisp 6.00 and Sidebottom 7.00, mitchell at 7.00 to poll a single vote seems great..if you can hit two of these players it's a great payday.. Sidebottom been building into consistent form since return and will love the atmosphere and know where to get the ball
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How much is JHF paying? Might chuck a cheeky fiver on it 👍
 

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Does anybody know if there is a book where you can either bet on

'Norm Smith winner from losing team'

Or better yet

'[player] / [opposition team wins]'

?

In the past I heard they do the Norm votes during the 4th quarter.

I wouldn't mind some action on a Magpie to win the Norm but his team to get rolled in the last ten minutes 👍

For something like Daicos NS / Brisbane win, the odds would have to be massive.
 
mouncey2franklin said:
Does anybody know if there is a book where you can either bet on

'Norm Smith winner from losing team'

Or better yet

'[player] / [opposition team wins]'

?

In the past I heard they do the Norm votes during the 4th quarter.

I wouldn't mind some action on a Magpie to win the Norm but his team to get rolled in the last ten minutes 👍

For something like Daicos NS / Brisbane win, the odds would have to be massive.
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Pretty sure SB, TAB & PB will have those markets later in the week.
 
mouncey2franklin said:
Does anybody know if there is a book where you can either bet on

'Norm Smith winner from losing team'

Or better yet

'[player] / [opposition team wins]'

?

In the past I heard they do the Norm votes during the 4th quarter.

I wouldn't mind some action on a Magpie to win the Norm but his team to get rolled in the last ten minutes 👍

For something like Daicos NS / Brisbane win, the odds would have to be massive.
Click to expand...
its up at pointsbet 11.00 under specials if you click on the match market "the nathan buckley special" its titled. you can go "deja vu" lol brisbane to win by 9 or 50 at odds of 51.00 lol
 
sohohoho said:
They changed this to after the match years ago to avoid this exact thing from happening, save your money
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I don't think it changes anything.

If it's a close game, and depending on who's voting, you'll find selectors should still be giving their three votes to the best player, not the best player from the winning team.

Gavin Wanganeen gave Taylor Adams three votes in 2018;

Jay Clark gave Josh Kennedy three votes in 2016;

Gerard Healy gave Gram three votes in 2009.

Some of the selectors might be stubborn and refuse to give three votes to a player on a losing team. I'm not sure who those selectors are.

If you have knowledge of this year's selectors previously being vocal about BOG should go to a player from the winning team, then you might be inclined to shy away from taking such a bet. But if you have selectors this year who have previously been selectors for other awards where they have given max votes to a player from the losing team, then you might think it's value.

This all depends on the match being close. I doubt you'll see a winner coming from a team who loses by 5+ goals.
 
Mouncey was under the impression it is voted during the 4th which I was clearing up.

Doesnt actually stop it but allows the full game to play out before deciding, in a close game those last few minutes can be important.

It looks like it actually got changed after Buckley won it in a losing team, so 1 winner since then with new voting timeline.
Not sure the 10/1 is great for something that has multiple judges doing it which is the main thing
 
Rough one but we are due for an indigenous guy to light up the granny again... I'll take a nibble at Hill Norm Smith 130-1 betfair.. will need to kick some early goals like he did vs Melbourne and then continue it through the game though. I'll also be taking Ginnivan similar odds 140-1 if he starts.. Crisp looks great value betfair in a revenge type scenario at 36-1 too.. Josh Daicos 32 also due for a bigger game after two quieter ones.
 
Josh Daicos is definitely the one I think presents the most value.

$32 is very good..I got on at those odds too.

Pendles also at $32 is one I like. I'm surprised he isn't getting much love. Isaac Smith winning as a 33-year-old to be bettered by Pendles winning his second? I can see that headline.

Nick and JDG have a couple of things going against them. Nick coming back from a knee injury has to be a concern. Dunkley likely to curtail JDG's influence.

Lachie Neale was $10 on Betfair on Monday morning. I'm not sure why I didn't get on at those odds but good luck to those that did.
 
kicksome said:
I really can't see pies losing this, it just seems like it's going to be their flag from a long way out. Everyone has bought in to the mcrea way.
Lions are 1 from their last 15 at the MCG, and that was against Melbourne in a final last year where it felt like Melbourne threw it away. It will be about 85 thousand collingwood supporters out of 100, Brisbane are just going to be absolutely shell shocked.
The blues absolutely pantsed them with their pressure in the first quarter last week and the pies will be able to do that for a lot longer.
Apart from Lachie neale their midfield drops away very quickly.
I think $1.75 for pies is an absolute gift, and I'm going to have a good go at pies 40+ at $6

Unfortunately for the neutral supporter I think this will be a disappointing grand final.
Would be happy for Brisbane to prove me wrong and show some ticker
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Forget the crowd influence, mate. The member allocations are even, with majority of seats distributed to corporate deals and the MCC. If the neutral alliance is anywhere near where it is across the AFL fanhood, the Lions will have considerably more supporters on the day.
 
X_box_X said:
Josh Daicos is definitely the one I think presents the most value.

$32 is very good..I got on at those odds too.

Pendles also at $32 is one I like. I'm surprised he isn't getting much love. Isaac Smith winning as a 33-year-old to be bettered by Pendles winning his second? I can see that headline.

Nick and JDG have a couple of things going against them. Nick coming back from a knee injury has to be a concern. Dunkley likely to curtail JDG's influence.

Lachie Neale was $10 on Betfair on Monday morning. I'm not sure why I didn't get on at those odds but good luck to those that did.
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Pendlebury is unders IMO, playing mostly defensive roles in the back end of the year to allow quicker attacking mids to prosper. Funnily enough, his one remarkable game after the bye was against Brisbane, but there was no De Goey nor Nick Daicos in that team. Expect Pendles to defend Neale at stoppages for most of the day.
 

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Josh Daicos is a great price for a player of his ability, but his finals series has been shite with all due respect. I'd be disappointed if I drew his name in a raffle. Crisp is a much better pick at the same price. Built for finals, Crisp has 6 goals in his last 5 finals and doesn't need 30+ to make a big difference with his line breaking runs and high kick to handball ratio.

De Goey is a little short to me. Can he play the "game of his life" two weeks in succession? Nobody works harder on game day at Collingwood than Steele Sidebottom whom year after year has turned up to big games. He probably needs a goal to win it though and has only booted 3 in 19 games this season.

I think the best $100+ pop is Bobby Hill who surprised us all with a monumental performance against Melbourne in the qualifying final. If the Magpies get up, he lays some big bumps like he often does (will be noticed by the judges) and he can have 15 and kick 3 then he'd be a shot. Highly unlikely though of course, and the price suggests so.

For Brisbane, in how many wins this year did Dunkley outperform Neale? I feel like when Dunkley dominates, the whole midfield unit does and he's not quite the standout Neale is. I prefer McCluggage at roughly the same price who is more attacking and his outside game may be a bigger point of difference to voters. Daniher and Cameron are both capable of bags, and can break the long drought of forwards not winning. Not big on Bailey unless at monstrous odds ($67+). Don't think any of their $100+ shots are worth anything.
 
Unless you're a freak ball accumulator (Daicos, Neale) you have to be able to impact the scoreboard to be considered for Norm Smith IMO. Swiftbet offering $5 for Daicos or Neale to win is a good bet i reckon.

Rayner my smokey but need him to hit the scoreboard and lions to win obviously.
 
Are we still waiting for this years Mark Hutchings NS tip?
 
Pklz said:
Unless you're a freak ball accumulator (Daicos, Neale) you have to be able to impact the scoreboard to be considered for Norm Smith IMO. Swiftbet offering $5 for Daicos or Neale to win is a good bet i reckon.

Rayner my smokey but need him to hit the scoreboard and lions to win obviously.
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Crisp kicks important goals regularly. Great value.
 
demon_fanatic said:
Rough one but we are due for an indigenous guy to light up the granny again... I'll take a nibble at Hill Norm Smith 130-1 betfair.. will need to kick some early goals like he did vs Melbourne and then continue it through the game though. I'll also be taking Ginnivan similar odds 140-1 if he starts.. Crisp looks great value betfair in a revenge type scenario at 36-1 too.. Josh Daicos 32 also due for a bigger game after two quieter ones.
Click to expand...

Hill's stats in his one match against Brisbane this year were decent.

2 goals 1 behind, 10 disposals, 2 clearances, 6 bounces.

That wouldn't be enough to win a Norm smith but an extra goal and a flashy mark or two and he could be a chance.

Who is likely to man him from Brisbane? Does anybody know what the Lions' small defensive stocks are like?
 
X_box_X said:
Pendles also at $32 is one I like. I'm surprised he isn't getting much love. Isaac Smith winning as a 33-year-old to be bettered by Pendles winning his second? I can see that headline.
Click to expand...

Agreed.

A few weeks ago against Brisbane his stats were:

31 touches (13 contested), 12 clearances, 9 I50s, 1 goal 1 behind, 6 tackles, 2 goal assists.

Those are Norm Smith numbers for anybody, let alone a media darling (and proven NS winner).

I'll see you guys in First Class :thumbsu:

pendles train.jpg
 
mouncey2franklin said:
Hill's stats in his one match against Brisbane this year were decent.

2 goals 1 behind, 10 disposals, 2 clearances, 6 bounces.

That wouldn't be enough to win a Norm smith but an extra goal and a flashy mark or two and he could be a chance.

Who is likely to man him from Brisbane? Does anybody know what the Lions' small defensive stocks are like?
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Starcevich played on him in Round 4.
Bobby Hill hasn't had one game in his career that would be worthy of a Norm Smith, can't see him having one on GF Day
 
Safe to say Brissy has the wood over the Pies recently. 5-0 but none at the MCG.

Cameron 10 goals in last 2 games against Pies. 3 Brownlow votes round 4. Norm Smith @ 23s Lads.

Daniher @ 26s too

Daniher/Cameron @ 12s Lads
 
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