Analysis 2023 Richmond stats

[Tigerish09]

Been a mediocre year and I've been wondering what the stats show. In most cases they are pretty reflective of our position.
In terms of scoring we average 19.96 points in the first quarter, 21.43 in the second quarter, 19.87 in the 3rd quarter and our worst quarter is the fourth at 19.43. There is a noticeable drop-off after half-time reflecting the conditioning and fitness of our team. In games we have lost we have averaged only 15 points during the last quarter. Of the possible 92 quarters that we have played this year we have won 40 of them and lost 52. Every time we have kicked 85 points or over we have won the game. We only kicked 100 or over 5 times this year. Our low scoring explains our poor percentage.

The AFL comparative stats show us to be average in most indicators so I'll only mention the ones that stand out. Disposals we are below average at around 3 less than average, Disposal efficiency we are bottom. Inside 50s we are 11th at 53 per game, most of the top sides sit around 57 or more. We are 1st in Rebound 50s and 2nd in Metres gained reflecting our game style. We are unfortunately 1st in Clangers by a fair margin and 3rd in Turnovers, given that teams score so heavily from turnovers we need to address this. 10th in Contested possessions, 14th in Uncontested possessions, 16th in Centre Clearances, 15th for marks, surprisingly even without Lynch we are 4th for marks inside 50. 16th for Marks on lead inside 50 highlighting the chaotic entries, 18th for Goal Accuracy, 15th for Goals per inside 50. 4th in hit-outs to advantage, Frees for 17th, Frees against 7th, Frees differential 17th (no surprise here). 4th in One-percenters such as shepherds etc. The other indicators have us anywhere from 6th to 13th but the main takeaways are we don't dispose of the footy well, we turn it over too much and our goal kicking needs work. Supporters know this already and the stats definitely confirm this.

There's been a lot of discussion on the Taranto/Hopper deal. I'll start with Taranto whose form has dropped off the last few weeks and I suspect is injured, I've observed that he can hardly run at times during games. Anyway, he is 4th in overall disposals, 33rd most goals, 6th in Tackles, 8th in Contested Possessions and Clearances. He is 8th in Clangers but both the Bont and Neale have more clangers for less overall disposals so by any standard Taranto has been a big win on the Trading table. Hopper has not played as many games as Taranto but if you were to extrapolate his figures so that he plays all 23 games he is still well behind Taranto, an example being 170 disposals less than Taranto. I might do a comparative analysis on Hopper vs Dow or Prestia to see what impact he has had but we do have to remember that Hopper has had injury woes this year.

So what can we do. After pouring over stats I'd recommend a new conditioning/fitness regime to run games out better and a new goalkicking coach. We must make hard decisions on players who continually turn the ball over, it is too costly in the modern game. The other stat that was interesting is that the top teams have a spread of goalkickers who have kicked over 20 goals, the bottom teams and us are lagging behind. This last stat becomes more important if Lynch misses games next year. If anyone has any particular stat they think would be valuable, let me know. My source for the data was AFL tables.

 

[Ctl]

 

[Growapair]

Statistics

RFC finished 13th, 2 out of the last 3 years.

RFC was 13th when McQualter became interim coach

McQualter won only 1 out of his last 5 games.

 

[tora tora tora]

Been a mediocre year and I've been wondering what the stats show. In most cases they are pretty reflective of our position.
In terms of scoring we average 19.96 points in the first quarter, 21.43 in the second quarter, 19.87 in the 3rd quarter and our worst quarter is the fourth at 19.43. There is a noticeable drop-off after half-time reflecting the conditioning and fitness of our team. In games we have lost we have averaged only 15 points during the last quarter. Of the possible 92 quarters that we have played this year we have won 40 of them and lost 52. Every time we have kicked 85 points or over we have won the game. We only kicked 100 or over 5 times this year. Our low scoring explains our poor percentage.

The AFL comparative stats show us to be average in most indicators so I'll only mention the ones that stand out. Disposals we are below average at around 3 less than average, Disposal efficiency we are bottom. Inside 50s we are 11th at 53 per game, most of the top sides sit around 57 or more. We are 1st in Rebound 50s and 2nd in Metres gained reflecting our game style. We are unfortunately 1st in Clangers by a fair margin and 3rd in Turnovers, given that teams score so heavily from turnovers we need to address this. 10th in Contested possessions, 14th in Uncontested possessions, 16th in Centre Clearances, 15th for marks, surprisingly even without Lynch we are 4th for marks inside 50. 16th for Marks on lead inside 50 highlighting the chaotic entries, 18th for Goal Accuracy, 15th for Goals per inside 50. 4th in hit-outs to advantage, Frees for 17th, Frees against 7th, Frees differential 17th (no surprise here). 4th in One-percenters such as shepherds etc. The other indicators have us anywhere from 6th to 13th but the main takeaways are we don't dispose of the footy well, we turn it over too much and our goal kicking needs work. Supporters know this already and the stats definitely confirm this.

There's been a lot of discussion on the Taranto/Hopper deal. I'll start with Taranto whose form has dropped off the last few weeks and I suspect is injured, I've observed that he can hardly run at times during games. Anyway, he is 4th in overall disposals, 33rd most goals, 6th in Tackles, 8th in Contested Possessions and Clearances. He is 8th in Clangers but both the Bont and Neale have more clangers for less overall disposals so by any standard Taranto has been a big win on the Trading table. Hopper has not played as many games as Taranto but if you were to extrapolate his figures so that he plays all 23 games he is still well behind Taranto, an example being 170 disposals less than Taranto. I might do a comparative analysis on Hopper vs Dow or Prestia to see what impact he has had but we do have to remember that Hopper has had injury woes this year.

So what can we do. After pouring over stats I'd recommend a new conditioning/fitness regime to run games out better and a new goalkicking coach. We must make hard decisions on players who continually turn the ball over, it is too costly in the modern game. The other stat that was interesting is that the top teams have a spread of goalkickers who have kicked over 20 goals, the bottom teams and us are lagging behind. This last stat becomes more important if Lynch misses games next year. If anyone has any particular stat they think would be valuable, let me know. My source for the data was AFL tables.

Interesting numbers

Our 3rd qtr is our 2nd best qtr. So how does lack of/ conditioning explain that?
Huge number in Qtr 2 so we need a huge rest. We are a bit refreshed in the 3rd Qtr but drop off in the last qtr.

I'm no statistician but is 19.96 vs 19.87 a significant difference. 0.09points

 

[Tigerish09]

Interesting numbers

Our 3rd qtr is our 2nd best qtr. So how does lack of/ conditioning explain that?
Huge number in Qtr 2 so we need a huge rest. We are a bit refreshed in the 3rd Qtr but drop off in the last qtr.

I'm no statistician but is 19.96 vs 19.87 a significant difference. 0.09points

Our 3rd quarter is our 3rd best quarter. I think our lack of conditioning is evident in a number of areas, one is the fact that our first halves are better than our second halves in terms of pure scores. Second, there has been a notable drop-off in the last 5 games in scoring, our last quarter scoring sits at around an average of 15.5 points compared to 20 pts in the previous rounds. I think it's across the entire club, the way the VFL team capitulated after half-time in the last game indicates a lack of conditioning. The 0.09 difference is only an average difference and per se cannot be considered significant, it's when you look at the entire distribution of scores that you see trends and patterns emerging, some of the stats are skewed due to playing Norf, WC. When the game is up for grabs, Richmond tend to lose the critical quarter far more often than they win it. I'd be staggered if the conditioning/injury management was not a focus in the Off-season, it should be the subject of a comprehensive review.

Another interesting stat is even though Richmond's 2nd best quarter in points scored is the 1st quarter, we have been behind at quarter time 14 times out of a possible 23. These poor starts have to also be a focus going forward. Of the times we have been behind, we have managed to win the game 3 times, the notable victory being Swans, the other 2 wins were WC and Hawthorn. When Richmond have been in front at Quarter time, they have won every time except if the opponent is Melbourne.

 

[A Tiger 4 lyf]

Statistics

RFC finished 13th, 2 out of the last 3 years.

RFC was 13th when McQualter became interim coach

McQualter won only 1 out of his last 5 games.

I think he tried to add a few of his ideas during/post bye & failed

Most of it was tough to watch


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Growapair]

I think he tried to add a few of his ideas during/post bye & failed

Most of it was tough to watch


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Yep, still needs training wheels .... should coach the VFL side next year.

 

[Truetiger]

View attachment 1790368

Shows our ladder position really. All of these we have to improve on next season. Would be nice to win more clearances as well.

 

[Vassp]

Been a mediocre year and I've been wondering what the stats show. In most cases they are pretty reflective of our position.
In terms of scoring we average 19.96 points in the first quarter, 21.43 in the second quarter, 19.87 in the 3rd quarter and our worst quarter is the fourth at 19.43. There is a noticeable drop-off after half-time reflecting the conditioning and fitness of our team. In games we have lost we have averaged only 15 points during the last quarter. Of the possible 92 quarters that we have played this year we have won 40 of them and lost 52. Every time we have kicked 85 points or over we have won the game. We only kicked 100 or over 5 times this year. Our low scoring explains our poor percentage.

The AFL comparative stats show us to be average in most indicators so I'll only mention the ones that stand out. Disposals we are below average at around 3 less than average, Disposal efficiency we are bottom. Inside 50s we are 11th at 53 per game, most of the top sides sit around 57 or more. We are 1st in Rebound 50s and 2nd in Metres gained reflecting our game style. We are unfortunately 1st in Clangers by a fair margin and 3rd in Turnovers, given that teams score so heavily from turnovers we need to address this. 10th in Contested possessions, 14th in Uncontested possessions, 16th in Centre Clearances, 15th for marks, surprisingly even without Lynch we are 4th for marks inside 50. 16th for Marks on lead inside 50 highlighting the chaotic entries, 18th for Goal Accuracy, 15th for Goals per inside 50. 4th in hit-outs to advantage, Frees for 17th, Frees against 7th, Frees differential 17th (no surprise here). 4th in One-percenters such as shepherds etc. The other indicators have us anywhere from 6th to 13th but the main takeaways are we don't dispose of the footy well, we turn it over too much and our goal kicking needs work. Supporters know this already and the stats definitely confirm this.

There's been a lot of discussion on the Taranto/Hopper deal. I'll start with Taranto whose form has dropped off the last few weeks and I suspect is injured, I've observed that he can hardly run at times during games. Anyway, he is 4th in overall disposals, 33rd most goals, 6th in Tackles, 8th in Contested Possessions and Clearances. He is 8th in Clangers but both the Bont and Neale have more clangers for less overall disposals so by any standard Taranto has been a big win on the Trading table. Hopper has not played as many games as Taranto but if you were to extrapolate his figures so that he plays all 23 games he is still well behind Taranto, an example being 170 disposals less than Taranto. I might do a comparative analysis on Hopper vs Dow or Prestia to see what impact he has had but we do have to remember that Hopper has had injury woes this year.

So what can we do. After pouring over stats I'd recommend a new conditioning/fitness regime to run games out better and a new goalkicking coach. We must make hard decisions on players who continually turn the ball over, it is too costly in the modern game. The other stat that was interesting is that the top teams have a spread of goalkickers who have kicked over 20 goals, the bottom teams and us are lagging behind. This last stat becomes more important if Lynch misses games next year. If anyone has any particular stat they think would be valuable, let me know. My source for the data was AFL tables.

This great example as to why you shouldn't pay attention to stats alone.

 

[SunshineBoy]

This great example as to why you shouldn't pay attention to stats alone.

The only stat that counts is the scoreboard at the end of the game

 

[Tiger2709]

If we worried about stats we would still be on 10 Premierships.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Our 3rd quarter is our 3rd best quarter. I think our lack of conditioning is evident in a number of areas, one is the fact that our first halves are better than our second halves in terms of pure scores. Second, there has been a notable drop-off in the last 5 games in scoring, our last quarter scoring sits at around an average of 15.5 points compared to 20 pts in the previous rounds. I think it's across the entire club, the way the VFL team capitulated after half-time in the last game indicates a lack of conditioning. The 0.09 difference is only an average difference and per se cannot be considered significant, it's when you look at the entire distribution of scores that you see trends and patterns emerging, some of the stats are skewed due to playing Norf, WC. When the game is up for grabs, Richmond tend to lose the critical quarter far more often than they win it. I'd be staggered if the conditioning/injury management was not a focus in the Off-season, it should be the subject of a comprehensive review.

Another interesting stat is even though Richmond's 2nd best quarter in points scored is the 1st quarter, we have been behind at quarter time 14 times out of a possible 23. These poor starts have to also be a focus going forward. Of the times we have been behind, we have managed to win the game 3 times, the notable victory being Swans, the other 2 wins were WC and Hawthorn. When Richmond have been in front at Quarter time, they have won every time except if the opponent is Melbourne.

This gives a better idea of our performances across the quarters s it takes into account opposition scoring as well, and we can also see how many scoring shots are happening....



Scoring shot differentials:

Q1 = -17
Q2 = +21
Q3 = -20
Q4 = -1

Our first and 3rd terms are our worst by this measure - the terms when we are fresh. If anything this indicates Mr Lucas Meehan conditions our players beautifully but we are not coping with opposition strategies when fresh.

Scoring differentials:

Q1 = -80
Q2 = +36
Q3 = -90
Q4 = -1

Similar picture but our s/s deficits in Q's 1 & 3 are heavily punished by greater opposition accuracy. I looked at this before and all indications are that just adding Lynch back into our team fixes that. We are a way more accurate team with him in and also we seem to force the opposition to be less accurate when Lynch plays(sampled on last 2 seasons 22 games with Lynch, 22 games without Lynch, principal held true for the games he missed 2022).

Accuracy:

Long term AFL average is around 10 goals per 9 behinds. In 2023 we scored roughly 10 goals per 10 behinds(below AFL average) and our opponents scored roughly 10 goals per 9 behinds(AFL average.)

 

[tora tora tora]

Our 3rd quarter is our 3rd best quarter. I think our lack of conditioning is evident in a number of areas, one is the fact that our first halves are better than our second halves in terms of pure scores. Second, there has been a notable drop-off in the last 5 games in scoring, our last quarter scoring sits at around an average of 15.5 points compared to 20 pts in the previous rounds. I think it's across the entire club, the way the VFL team capitulated after half-time in the last game indicates a lack of conditioning. The 0.09 difference is only an average difference and per se cannot be considered significant, it's when you look at the entire distribution of scores that you see trends and patterns emerging, some of the stats are skewed due to playing Norf, WC. When the game is up for grabs, Richmond tend to lose the critical quarter far more often than they win it. I'd be staggered if the conditioning/injury management was not a focus in the Off-season, it should be the subject of a comprehensive review.

Another interesting stat is even though Richmond's 2nd best quarter in points scored is the 1st quarter, we have been behind at quarter time 14 times out of a possible 23. These poor starts have to also be a focus going forward. Of the times we have been behind, we have managed to win the game 3 times, the notable victory being Swans, the other 2 wins were WC and Hawthorn. When Richmond have been in front at Quarter time, they have won every time except if the opponent is Melbourne.

Averages in in terms of goals and behinds.
19.76 in real terms is approx 3 goals 2.

Our 3rd quarter is our 3rd best quarter. I think our lack of conditioning is evident in a number of areas, one is the fact that our first halves are better than our second halves in terms of pure scores. Second, there has been a notable drop-off in the last 5 games in scoring, our last quarter scoring sits at around an average of 15.5 points compared to 20 pts in the previous rounds. I think it's across the entire club, the way the VFL team capitulated after half-time in the last game indicates a lack of conditioning. The 0.09 difference is only an average difference and per se cannot be considered significant, it's when you look at the entire distribution of scores that you see trends and patterns emerging, some of the stats are skewed due to playing Norf, WC. When the game is up for grabs, Richmond tend to lose the critical quarter far more often than they win it. I'd be staggered if the conditioning/injury management was not a focus in the Off-season, it should be the subject of a comprehensive review.

Another interesting stat is even though Richmond's 2nd best quarter in points scored is the 1st quarter, we have been behind at quarter time 14 times out of a possible 23. These poor starts have to also be a focus going forward. Of the times we have been behind, we have managed to win the game 3 times, the notable victory being Swans, the other 2 wins were WC and Hawthorn. When Richmond have been in front at Quarter time, they have won every time except if the opponent is Melbourne.

Have a look at the AFL app. It has a tracker for running stats for each player and team for each game. The app shows the top 5 players.
RFC is consistently top 3 out of 5 players.
It doesn't look like a team that lacks fitness.
Our problems lie elsewhere. IMO

 

[Tigerish09]

The only stat that counts is the scoreboard at the end of the game

Yes, but stats help explain how we get to the final result. The conditioning is only one area that we need to improve in, we are well behind on goal accuracy, far too many clangers/turnovers and need a greater spread of goalkickers. Consistency of effort is a major driver of our wins, Richmond lost or drew every game this year bar Hawthorn when they were outscored in 3 of the 4 quarters. Richmond won every game this year when they won 3 or more quarters. Richmond either won (mainly) or lost by narrow margins when they won 2 of the 4 quarters. Perhaps the game style is too taxing to adopt consistently or the players need better conditioning to execute it more consistently. The goalkicking could also be as a result of conditioning ie harder to kick with penetration and accuracy when you are tired, it could also be because the players are kicking from more difficult positions as Lynch would no doubt straighten us up and give us more "gettable" shots.

Interestingly, if we compare our percentage to the team that finished on top of the ladder, we are on average 12 points behind them per game, one would think that Tom Lynch would have contributed a couple of goals per game had he been fit so our points for would not be dissimilar to the top teams. Our defence is approx 2 goals worse per game than the top team so, with some re-jigging we might be able to claw a couple of goals back, it will take a team effort though to do this and requires pressure from our forwards and in particular our midfield. I abhor seeing teams just walk the ball out of our midfield and converting them into easy goals, I'd support any coach who can stop this from happening. There's plenty to work on (and we need to explore and prioritise our forward strategy if Lynch does not play much next year and beyond) including goalkicking, general skill execution, game plan evolution and managing an aging list, the competition is pretty even and improve on a few things and we could be finalists sooner than we expected, the question I have is, can we improve on our deficiencies in a pre-season?