Mega Thread 2024-2025 MLB Hot Stove

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The Washington Nationals announced that they have signed LHP Shinnosuke Ogasawara to a two-year contract last week. He is reportedly guaranteed $3.5 million, comprising a $1.5 million salary in 2025 and a $2 million salary in 2026. The Nationals will pay a $700,000 posting fee to his former team, the Chunichi Dragons. The Nationals designated LHP Joe La Sorsa for assignment.

Ogasawara comes to the US having played in nine seasons in the NPB, with a total of 951 1/3 innings for a 3.62 ERA and an 18.9% strikeout rate.

 
The Baltimore Orioles are in agreement with infielder Jorge Mateo on a one-year, $3.55 million contract with a team option for 2026 worth $5.5 million to $6 million, which could increase depending on Mateo's performance in 2025. It is not clear what the buyout would be on the option should the Orioles decline it.



 
The Toronto Blue Jays are signing RHP Adam Kloffenstein to a minor league contract with an invitation to Spring Training. The Blue Jays drafted Kloffenstein in the third round of the 2018 draft and he wound up being traded to the Cardinals in 2023. He was added to the Cardinals' 40 man roster in November 2023 to protect him from the Rule 5 draft and he made his MLB debut with St Louis last year, though he only pitched one inning. The Cardinals non-tendered Kloffenstein in November 2024.



From a certain angle, it looks like Mike Trout has taken up pitching. :p
 

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On a personal note, looks like my son is done for the rest of the summer season. Copped a knock to his pinky finger on his non-throwing hand playing volleyball with family before Christmas and it seems like he's hurt the tendon in his finger. If it's torn, then he's out for at least three months which puts the start of the winter season (end of April) at risk. The most innocuous thing ever. He's seeing a surgeon tomorrow.

Plan is that he'll continue pitching training with his summer club (the injury is on his glove hand, so he shouldn't be fielding, and it hurts when he swings a bat) in the hope that he'll be ready to start pre-season training with his winter club in April.

His team was competing way outside of its skill bracket, but he was above average on his team and his teammates are going to be unhappy when they find out that they've lost their two best starters for the rest of the season (another boy on the team injured himself in a freak accident in try-outs before Christmas and is out for another fortnight at minimum).
 
The San Francisco Giants and Cincinnati Reds are in agreement on a trade that sends LHP Taylor Rogers to the Reds in exchange for non-roster minor league RHP Braxton Roxby. The Giants are sending $6 million to the Reds to partly cover Rogers' 2025 salary. The Reds have a full 40-man roster and also are reportedly in agreement with OF Austin Hays, so they need to open two roster spots to fit Hays and Rogers when their deals become official.

Rogers has pitched 490 2/3 innings since the start of the 2016 season, with a 3.34 ERA over that timespan. He has a 28.2% strikeout rate over that period, a 7% walk rate and a 46.3% groundball rate. Rogers has mostly been used as a set-up man, with 98 holds in his career. He signed a three year contract with the Giants before the start of the 2023 season, and is due $12 million in 2025 (the last year of that deal). He did manage a 2.40 ERA in 2024, but the advanced analytics suggested that he was on the precipice of falling off to an extent, with a career low average speed on his sinker and a falling strikeout rate to a career low 25.7% last season. He managed a strand rate of 81.8% last season, suggesting that he was perhaps more lucky than good, and that translated to a 3.75 FIP and a 3.47 SIERA, both significantly higher than his ERA.



 
The Tampa Bay Rays are reportedly in agreement with infielder Ha-Seong Kim on a two-year, $29 million contract that contains an opt-out after this year. Kim will be paid $13 million in 2025, with $2 million in incentives available, based on plate appearances and starting after 325 plate appearances. If Kim declines to opt out he will be paid $16 million in 2026. The Rays have a full 40-man roster and must make a corresponding move once Kim's deal becomes official.

Kim's trip through free agency was clouded when he underwent surgery in September 2024 to repair a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder. His agent, Scott Boras, said that Kim would be back on the field by April 2025, but the Padres were less optimistic, suggesting that the earliest they would expect Kim back would be May and it may not be until about the All-Star break that Kim would be back.





 
The Detroit Tigers are in agreement with RHP Tommy Kahnle on a one-year, $7.75 million contract. Kahnle has been plagued by injuries over the last five years, but when healthy, has often acted as the best set-up man in the league. He has pitched less than 100 innings since the start of the 2020 season, but 83 of those innings have come in the last two seasons. Since 2020, he boasts an ERA of 2.41 with a 28% strikeout rate and 10.6% walk rate.

Kahnle's best pitch is his changeup and he relies on it almost to the exclusion of his other pitches. Since 2022, he has thrown the changeup almost three-quarters of the time, and that included a stretch of 61 consecutive changeups in the 2024 postseason. Opponents have struggled against the changeup, hitting just .175/.236/.287 in Kahnle's career, and that included .157/.227/.264 in 2024.

After making the deal official, the Tigers have designated RHP Alex Faedo for assignment. Faedo was selected by the Tigers with the 18th selection in the 2017 draft and has pitched in each of the last three seasons. He pitched 57 1/3 innings in 2024 with a 3.61 ERA, a 22.4% strikeout rate and a 11.4% walk rate.

 
The Pittsburgh Pirates have secured a win in arbitration with their RHP Johan Oviedo. The arbitrator determined that Oviedo should be paid $850,000 for the 2025 season, not the $1.15 million that Oviedo wanted. Oviedo missed the 2024 season with Tommy John surgery, but was on track to be a solid innings-eating starter for the Pirates prior to that injury, having put up a 4.15 ERA in 39 starts over the 2022-2023 season (208 1/3 innings). Of course, the Pirates rotation now looks very different to how it looked when Oviedo was last healthy, with Paul Skenes and Jared Jones having cemented themselves as top of the rotation starters, while Bailey Falter also looked solid in 2024. Oviedo will likely have a head start as the fifth starter in the Pirates rotation behind Skenes, Jones, Mitch Keller and Falter, but needs to show that he can be effective during Spring Training, since the Pirates have a minor league option remaining.

 
The Los Angeles Dodgers and LHP Alex Vesia are in agreement on a one-year, $2.3 million contract with a club option for 2026. This allows the two sides to avoid arbitration. Vesia had filed for $2.35 million while the Dodgers had proposed $2.05 million. Vesia was the only Dodger that was up for arbitration, so the Dodgers have now avoided the need for any arbitration hearings in 2025.

Vesia will be paid a guaranteed salary of $2.55 million in 2025, with the additional $50,000 guarantee coming on a buyout on a $3.55 million club option for 2026. Vesia has incentives worth a total of $175,000 for 2025.



 
The Kansas City Royals have moved to strengthen their bullpen by reportedly agreeing to a two-year contract with free agent RHP Carlos Estevez. The deal comes with a club option for 2027. Estevez will receive a guaranteed $22 million from the Royals, which includes a $2 million buyout on an option worth $13 million. The Royals have a full 40-man roster so must make a move once the deal is official.

Estevez spent the first six years of his career in Colorado with the Rockies. He signed a two-year contract with the Angels before the 2023 off-season and then was traded to the Phillies at the 2024 deadline. Between the Angels and Phillies, he pitched 117 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA, 26% strikeout rate, and an 8.7% walk rate. Estevez earned the closer role with the Angels and kept it with the Phillies, picking up 57 saves over the last two years. He put up a career best 2.45 ERA in 2024, but his strikeout rate dropped from 25.8% with the Angels to 20.5% with the Phillies.

Estevez joins a bullpen headlined by RHP Lucas Erceg and RHP Hunter Harvey, both of whom the Royals acquired at the 2024 trade deadline. Erceg emerged from the shadow of former teammate Mason Miller to become the Royals closer, putting up a 2.88 ERA in the regular season for the Royals and then pitching to a 3.00 ERA in six postseason appearances. Harvey only had six appearances as a Royal before a back injury put him on the shelf.





 
Free agent RHP Max Scherzer recently held a workout for interested teams that was reportedly attended by several teams at least, including the Blue Jays, Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Braves, Red Sox and Cubs. The Blue Jays have been linked most prominently with Scherzer through the off-season and they seem to be leading the charge to sign him. The Mets have had some level of interest in bringing Scherzer back to Queens on a one year contract. According to one showcase attendee, Scherzer still has good stuff, but it is not at the Cy Young level of previous seasons.

Scherzer was restricted by a litany of injuries to pitching only 43 1/3 innings in nine starts for the Rangers in 2024. He managed a 3.95 ERA with a 22.6% strikeout rate and a 5.6% walk rate. His fastball slowed from 95 mph to a career-low 92.5 mph and he was more prone to giving up homeruns than in previous years.




 
The New York Mets have re-signed RHP Ryne Stanek to a one year, $4.5 million contract with an additional $500,000 in incentives. The Mets will pay a 95% luxury tax on the contract, which makes the total investment on Stanek close to $9 million. The Mets have designated RHP Dylan Covey for assignment to create roster space for Stanek.

Stanek started the 2024 season on the Mariners playing under a one-year, $4 million contract. The Mariners traded him to the Mets in exchange for minor league outfielder Rhylan Thomas. Stanek was excellent in the postseason for the Mets, pitching eight innings and giving up three runs on five hits and three walks with eight strikeouts. He was responsible for the final outs in three Mets victories in the postseason (albeit in non-save scenarios).

Stanek has pitched 382 1/3 innings in his career for a 3.53 ERA with a 27.6% strikeout rate and a 11.6% walk rate. He normally goes one or two innings in an appearance and averages 97.8mph on his fastball. He induces swinging strikes at a 15.1% rate during his career, with only nine pitchers with at least 400 innings having a better swinging strike rate (Hader, Edwin Diaz, deGrom, Scherzer, Raisel Iglesias, Ryan Pressly, Kimbrel and Shane McClanahan).

Stanek joins A.J. Minter as options for Carlos Mendoza to work the seventh and eighth innings before handing over to closer Edwin Diaz for the ninth.







 

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The Toronto Blue Jays and RHP Max Scherzer are in agreement on a one year contract worth $15.5 million, pending a physical. Scherzer has pitched in the majors since 2008, with almost 3,000 innings and a career 3.16 ERA. Scherzer has collected three Cy Youngs, eight All-Star selections and two World Series rings.

Scherzer, however, is on the downswing portion of his career, having had an injury-hit 2024 that limited him to nine starts and 43 1/3 innings for the Rangers. He started the 2024 season on the IL to recover from off-season back surgery, then had issues with the nerves in his hand, shoulder fatigue and a strained hamstring.

Last season was the first season in his major league career where he suffered from injuries regularly. Between 2009 and 2023, he made 27 or more starts and put up 145 1/3 innings at least in each year. From 2013-2018, he topped 200 innings a season.



 
The Athletics have claimed RHP Elvis Alvarado off waivers from the Pittsburgh Pirates and have designated RHP Anthony Maldonado for assignment. Alvarado had been designated for assignment by the Pirates to create roster space for the signing of OF Adam Frazier.

Alvarado, who turns 26 in February, is yet to make his MLB debut and has previously pitched in the minors for the Nationals, Mariners, Tigers and Marlins. After entering free agency during the off-season, the Pirates signed him to a split deal in December, presumably due to their interest in his 2.79 ERA in 2024 with the Marlins through 48 1/3 innings in Triple-A, with a 33.2% strikeout rate and a 17.8% walk rate.

Maldonado had been claimed by the Athletics off waivers from the Marlins in November 2024. He made his MLB debut for Miami in 2024, pitching 16 times for 19 innings with 12 earned runs, and a small 13.4% strikeout rate. The Athletics have five days to work out a trade for him, else put him on waivers for 48 hours.

 
The Chicago Cubs and the San Diego Padres have had discussions over a possible trade involving RHP Dylan Cease, according to reports. It is unclear just how close the two sides are to a deal, but it continues to add fuel to the fire that the Padres are looking to sell one of their biggest trade chips before the season starts. Cease is set to become a free agent after 2025 and is on a salary of $13.75 million for this year, making him one of the most attractive targets for those seeking a starter.

 
The Chicago White Sox are also in sell mode and have engaged with a number of teams over a possible trade involving OF Luis Robert Jr, but at this stage, none have come to fruition. According to reports, the Giants and the Reds both have had discussions with Chicago about a possible Robert trade. However, it seems that the White Sox are looking to acquire at least a top prospect for Robert but the suitors are not willing to part with their best talent after Robert struggled in 2024 with injury and put up just .224/.278/.379 in 100 games.

 
The Athletics announced that they have acquired catcher Jhonny Pereda from the Miami Marlins in exchange for cash considerations. To clear a spot on the 40-man roster, the Athletics designated catcher Kyle McCann for assignment.

 
The Chicago Cubs and the San Diego Padres have had discussions over a possible trade involving RHP Dylan Cease, according to reports. It is unclear just how close the two sides are to a deal, but it continues to add fuel to the fire that the Padres are looking to sell one of their biggest trade chips before the season starts. Cease is set to become a free agent after 2025 and is on a salary of $13.75 million for this year, making him one of the most attractive targets for those seeking a starter.



Negotiations should go.

Padres: “We want Matt Shaw.”

Cubs: * hangs up phone *
 
The Chicago Cubs have signed infielder Nicky Lopez to a minor league contract. Lopez will make $1.5 million if he makes the Cubs' major league roster. Lopez swaps sides in Chicago, having played for the White Sox in 2024 as a regular starter in the middle infield. Lopez initially played at second base, but was then swapped to shortstop in July and August. The White Sox put Lopez on waivers at the end of August and take on the remaining $700,000 on his $4.3 million contract, but nobody bit. Consequently, the White Sox outrighted Lopez off the 40-man roster in November, and he chose to become a free agent rather than accept the assignment to the minor league.

Lopez has six years total of experience in the majors, and he peaked (so far) with the Royals in 2021 when he hit .300/.365/.378 over 565 plate appearances while also playing strong defence at shortstop. However, that seems to be a massive outlier as he has only a 68 wRC+ over 1,187 plate appearances in the last three seasons, including a 77 wRC+ from .241/.312/.294 slash line in 445 plate appearances with the White Sox last year.





 
The San Diego Padres announced on Saturday (Australian time) that they had reached agreement with RHP Michael King on a one-year contract with a mutual option for the 2026 season. King will be paid $7.75 million, taking the form of a $3 million signing bonus, a $1 million salary, and a $3.75 million buyout on a $15 million option. King would receive a $50,000 bonus for reaching 20 starts, and bonuses of $100,000 each for reaching 25 and then 28 starts.

While the contract superficially extends the Padres' ability to control King beyond this year, mutual options are almost never exercised by both sides. Either the player outperforms the value of the option and so decline their side of the option, or they underperform and the team consequentially declines their side of the option. The last time a club and player both picked up a mutual option was back in 2013.

However, the presence of the option renders it moot for future arbitration negotiations and cannot be used as a comparable contract either for the Padres or for other clubs when negotiating contracts with players who have similar service time and performance as King.

 
The Pittsburgh Pirates have had a win off the field, with the arbitrator siding with the Pirates in their hearing with RHP Dennis Santana. Accordingly, Santana will now make $1.4 million in 2025, rather than the $2.1 million he sought. Santana was picked up by the Pirates on waivers after being designated for assignment by the Yankees in June, and then put up a 2.44 ERA over 44 1/3 innings out of the Pittsburgh bullpen compared to a 6.26 ERA in 27 1/3 innings with the Yankees in the first half of the season. Santana increased his strikeout rate to 29.1% from 16.5% with the Yankees, and also reduced his walk rate, while putting up an inflated 72.8% strand rate and a .264 BABIP. Santana reduced the usage of his sinker and also credited the advice and mentorship he received from Aroldis Chapman after joining the Pirates.

 
The arbitration panel sided with the Yankees in their hearing with RHP Mark Leiter Jr. Accordingly, Leiter Jr will be paid $2.05 million for 2025, rather than the $2.5 million he sought. The Yankees acquired Leiter Jr from the Cubs at the trade deadline and he responded with a 4.98 ERA across 21 2/3 innings over the remainder of the regular season, compared to an overall 4.50 ERA in 58 innings with the Cubs and Yankees. Leiter Jr performed better in the postseason, putting up a 1.69 ERA in 5 1/3 innings across six appearances in the ALCS and the World Series.

 
According to reports, the Yankees have expressed interest in signing utility player Enrique Hernandez and 3B Yoan Moncada. It appears that the Yankees sought information about Moncada's physical health early in the offseason but a source has told reporters that the Yankees have not since re-engaged with Moncada. It seemed that a reunion between Hernandez and the Dodgers (with whom he won a championship last year) was inevitable, but the Dodgers appear to be waiting until Spring Training starts and roster space can be created by putting players on the 60-day IL. However, that leaves the door ajar for another team (such as the Yankees) to make an enticing offer to Hernandez.

 
Time is starting to run out in the baseball off-season and one of the big unsigned free agents is 3B Alex Bregman. Through the winter, he's been sitting on a six year, $156 million offer from the Astros. It also appears from reports that another, unnamed club has made Bregman a "lucrative" six year offer, with an opt-out after the first year, but that this club is not high on Bregman's list. The reports suggests that the Cubs, Tigers and Red Sox are all clubs with an interest in signing Bregman, while he also has been linked to the Blue Jays.

It appears that Bregman would want to be paid close to $200 million, so while he has interest in returning to Houston, the salary is not sufficiently high enough to entice Bregman, with reports suggesting that he sees that offer as a pay-cut. The contract offer from the Astros comes with an AAV of $26 million. He signed a five-year, $100 million contract in 2019, with a $20 million AAV, but the contract was backloaded, so that he was paid a $10 million signing bonus, and had annual salaries of $11 million in the first three years of the contract, followed by $28.5 million per annum salary in the last two years of the contract. So while the AAV of the new Houston offer is an increase on the contract he signed with them in 2019, it represents a decrease in actual salary because of the backloaded portion of the now-completed contract.


 

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Mega Thread 2024-2025 MLB Hot Stove


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