Prediction 2024 Brownlow Medal contenders

[Lingsface]

Big week in the Brownlow this week will be a really important round.

Bont, Cripps, Daicos, Neale and Gulden all probably don’t register a vote.

3 vote game for Heeney for sure
2-3 vote game for Serong and Merrett.

What’s everyone guess at the leaderboard right now?

This is me just guessing with no tracking.

Serong Heeney -1st
Bont- 2nd
Cripps Daicos- 3rd
Merrett-4th
Warner-5th

 

[Cleansweep17]

I feel bad for the Brownlow winner (and Heeney) this season if Heeney gets the most votes. They need to tweak the criteria for fairest. Make it 2-3 week bans instead of 1. 1 weekers can be 50/50 and accidental/unavoidable.

Like OP said big 2 weeks coming up. Anybody in the top 5 can win it.

 

[NorthernBastard]

In regards to eligibility, could you make it that intentional acts disqualify you, but reckless is still eligible?

 

[Fadge]

1. Cripps/Bont
3. Neale/Merrett
5. Daicos/Serong
7. Gulden

Any of these 7 can win it.

 

[Boomer93]

Would be tough for Serong to win it with Young stealing so many votes.

 

[Biggy_Boy]

In regards to eligibility, could you make it that intentional acts disqualify you, but reckless is still eligible?

Something like that would be the way to go. The way that the "fairest" qualification is not in line with the original spirit of the notion in the award. The idea would have been not to award dirty players who decked blokes off the play and stuff like that. No several decades ago would have ever thought players would be getting reported and suspended for some of the things they are now.

You can debate what is fair and what is not in the current game, but it's clear to most that players now get suspended for actions where they are not intending to hurt someone; it's a mistake within a footballing context. In a lot of cases, most reasonable people would not deem these actions to have made someone an "unfair" player.

 

[Fadge]

Something like that would be the way to go. The way that the "fairest" qualification is not in line with the original spirit of the notion in the award. The idea would have been not to award dirty players who decked blokes off the play and stuff like that. No several decades ago would have ever thought players would be getting reported and suspended for some of the things they are now.

You can debate what is fair and what is not in the current game, but it's clear to most that players now get suspended for actions where they are not intending to hurt someone; it's a mistake within a footballing context. In a lot of cases, most reasonable people would not deem these actions to have made someone an "unfair" player.

It would be an interesting one.

A legitimate tackle gone wrong could get you 4 weeks, but is a footballing act and unintentional.

Do we think players should still be eligible for the Brownlow in that instance?

I do.

 

[adammania9]

My live tracker

1. Cripps - home and hosed
2. Daicos
3. Heeney
4. Merrett
5. Neale
6. Serong
7. Bontempelli
8. Anderson
9. Treloar
10. JHF

 

[Fadge]

I reckon people are underestimating The Bont in these parts.

He'll get votes for just turning up this year, after near misses in previous years.

For example, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a vote on the weekend after a big last quarter, despite not getting any coaches votes.

 

[Rabish Binney]

Lachie Neale

9

Lachie Neale

Age

31

Ht

178cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

27.0

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

15.5

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.7

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

28.3

5star

K

13.9

5star

HB

14.4

5star

M

4.6

4star

T

4.0

5star

CL

5.9

5star

D

12.0

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

1.0

3star

CL

0.4

3star

again.....

 

[Rabish Binney]

I reckon people are underestimating The Bont in these parts.

He'll get votes for just turning up this year, after near misses in previous years.

For example, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets a vote on the weekend after a big last quarter, despite not getting any coaches votes.

100%

There's no doubt that the star players do get votes even if they've had an ordinary game.

Having said that, Bont would be a worthy winner if it happens.

 

[KissKiss]

Would be tough for Serong to win it with Young stealing so many votes.

The opposite is why Neale is always a good chance. Not many other mids stealing votes most weeks

 

[Fadge]

Lachie Neale again.....

I reckon the umpires will go the other way with him, and be more cautious about throwing votes his way after last year's result.

Think Judd and Swan in 2010 and 2011.

 

[Mr Meow]

The opposite is why Neale is always a good chance. Not many other mids stealing votes most weeks

Even when Dunkley is playing very well, he seems to be an unfashionable type when it comes to collecting votes off umpires. Brisbane has a lot of very good players and a deep list, but not many that outdo Neale when he is having one of his strong games - which is plenty often.

 

[Fadge]

Even when Dunkley is playing very well, he seems to be an unfashionable type when it comes to collecting votes off umpires. Brisbane has a lot of very good players and a deep list, but not many that outdo Neale when he is having one of his strong games - which is plenty often.

Dunkley had a big year last year, and only polled what 4 votes?

 

[Mr Meow]

Dunkley had a big year last year, and only polled what 4 votes?

Correct - in fact Dunkley, McLuggage and Berry had 7 votes between them in 2023. Ashcroft did better with 10 votes. Still, 17 Brownlow votes for your core midfield group minus its top star - that is not many at all for a grand final team.

As a comparison, Geelong in 2007 had 49 Brownlow votes go to its midfield group minus Ablett.

Neale hasn't really been better this year than Ablett was in 2007 but may end up getting 10+ more Brownlow votes and the medal. Still a gun. It's just one of those things.

 

[Fadge]

Correct - in fact Dunkley, McLuggage and Berry had 7 votes between them in 2023. Ashcroft did better with 10 votes. Still, 17 Brownlow votes for your core midfield group minus its top star - that is not many at all for a grand final team.

As a comparison, Geelong in 2007 had 49 Brownlow votes go to its midfield group minus Ablett.

Neale hasn't really been better this year than Ablett was in 2007 but may end up getting 10+ more Brownlow votes and the medal. Still a gun. It's just one of those things.

Hence why those with a modicum of intelligence don't go all binary about a player getting a tick for winning a Brownlow, and conversely getting a cross if they don't win it....

 

[scotty13]

My live tracker

1. Cripps - home and hosed
2. Daicos
3. Heeney
4. Merrett
5. Neale
6. Serong
7. Bontempelli
8. Anderson
9. Treloar
10. JHF

This.
Given how many votes JHF polled last year, and has been even better this year could be an interesting count for him.

Do I think he will win? No.
Is he worth a top3/5 bet? I think so.

 

[TheUnicorn]

Daicos will win I reckon. Nobody at Collingwood taking votes off of him.

 

[Lingsface]

Rowell dark horse for top 10? Type of player that gets votes I think.

 

[SSwans2011]

With Heeney ineligible, I hope Bont wins. He's been the best player in the competition if you look at the last half a decade or so as a whole, and deserves a Brownlow far more than anyone else in contention IMO.

 

[Iago]

Correct - in fact Dunkley, McLuggage and Berry had 7 votes between them in 2023. Ashcroft did better with 10 votes. Still, 17 Brownlow votes for your core midfield group minus its top star - that is not many at all for a grand final team.

As a comparison, Geelong in 2007 had 49 Brownlow votes go to its midfield group minus Ablett.

Neale hasn't really been better this year than Ablett was in 2007 but may end up getting 10+ more Brownlow votes and the medal. Still a gun. It's just one of those things.

Ablett didn't win it in 07. Another Geelong player did.

 

[Mr Meow]

Ablett didn't win it in 07. Another Geelong player did.

He was recognised as the best player in the league by the Coaches Award and Player MVP Award though. When you win 2 of the big 3, I'd say your claim is solid.

If you make the same argument for midfielders stealing votes from Bartel, then it simply becomes 40 instead of 47.

 

[Handsuper47]

I think bont will take it - a lot of the swans players will take votes from each other, same with fremantle

 

[iambrilliant]

Cripps would be about 4 votes out in front currently