Brownlow 2024 Brownlow Medal Count - Congrats Patrick Cripps!

Who wins the 24 Chas?

  • Total voters
    70
  • Poll closed .

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Not a word from Greg Baum in the 9 media about the statistical departure from reality of the Brownlow count this year.

Just another by-the-numbers article, and if he won't say a word, no journo other will either.

Nothing on Dillon's wife's pre-reveal either.

'Issues' don't exist in the AFL..
 

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The Plumber's Wife.
You don't just chime in!


But seriously, who is surprised that the AFL doesn't count the votes before the event? Take that rock off your head!
 
Malifice said:
Daicos got 2 votes for a game he got 15 touches and got subbed off.

His brother ran rampant with 34 touches so I think the umpires either got confused or rang it in on that one as well.

Cripps shouldnt have polled 2 votes in the game he got 19 at 60 percent, and the game where TDK was clearly the BOG was the other glaring error.

Petracca should have gotten the 3 votes for his 5 goals that nearly dragged the Dees over the line instead of Cripps (who should have gotten 2).

Even if I go back and deduct all those votes, Cripps still wins in a canter, so it's pretty moot.

The favorite won, and the second favorite came runner up. People are still gonna melt though.
Click to expand...

Firstly, no one is 'melting'.

Secondly, hardly anyone has any issue with Cripps winning or Daicos coming 2nd.

The main concern is how the same players are getting votes in nearly every game - the umpires used to be criticised if they missed a 'favourite' getting BOG - and the result seems to be that the same handful of players are getting votes almost no matter how they play in nearly every game (as your examples demonstrate well). It means a lot of things - but the main outcome is that other good players are getting overlooked unnecessarily. From your mob, Newman for example had some ripper games that earned 0 votes. The last few seasons Curnow has been brilliant and hardly polled. It's the same at every club. It also sucks cos Career Brownlow votes used to be aa decent way to compare players and see wich players were more consistently BOG, in the votes, etc but it has lost all meaning when winning tallies are double what they used to be and seasons like the one Daicos just had earn far more votes than some of the greatest individual seasons of all time.

It's not bias from me either - it's happening across the board at all clubs. Jai Newcombe, for example, picked up 3 votes in a game where he had 16 possessions against Fremantle (when 8 players got coaches votes and he wasn't one of them). It's really undermining the credibility of the award.
 
Bont is the main one I feel for. Most everyone is more or less placed where you might expect, just with very inflated total votes across the board. Except Bont, who should probably AT LEAST be in the 30s.
 
some suss votes getting awarded for mediocre games throughout the night but the right person won IMO.

bont was completely stitched in in a few games with no votes.

thought it would be a lot closer.
 
FlowersByIrene said:
Below analysis stolen from this reddit post:

For those taking the "Coaches should vote the Brownlow approach", terms out Cripps was equally as respected by those coaches with only two anomalous voted games, which contributed 4 of his 45 votes. It really wasn't that unusual. Turns out whatever metric you look at Cripps had an amazing year.

  • Of the 12 matches where Cripps polled 3 votes
    • The Coaches ALSO had him as BOG or equal BOG (round 24) in 7 of those.
    • Of the 5 he wasn't BOG by the coaches, he was:
      • 2nd for 3 (Round 1 vs Richmond [7 Votes] Win, Round 12 vs Port [7 Votes] Win, and Round 19 vs North [8 Votes] Win)
      • 3rd for 1 (Round 3 vs North Melbourne [6 Votes] Win)
      • 4th for 1 (Round 9 vs Melbourne [4 Votes] Win) - This was the ONLY game where he polled 3 votes and wasn't in the best 3 as deemed by the coaches
  • There were 2 games where Cripps got 0 coaches votes, but got Brownlow votes.
    • Round 4 vs Fremantle (2 Brownlow votes) - Win
    • Round 13 vs Essendon (2 Brownlow votes) - Wi
Click to expand...

That actually adds up to 6 votes, which in context is actually alot... The above just proves there is bias involved in the umpires being the ones awarding the votes.

If one players votes are skewed by 6 votes based on their actual influence on a game, imagine how off the overall tally is especially for lesser players across the board. i.e if a less obvious player had a very good consistent season where he was the 4th best player in every game, he probably gets 0 votes total because of lack of stardom whilst others pick up votes for similar performances - and those lesser players probably also end up with 1 and 2 voters despite being rated 1st by the coaches. The issue is there shouldn't be blowout tallies, there's a reason why 20 votes was able to win a brownlow 10-15 years ago. It no longer has the same integrity. Just take it off the umps, Cripps would've still won it and people would complain less. Literally 0 people would complain if the voting was taken off the umps.
 

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45 votes is diabolical. That sort of number should be reserved for all time seasons where a single player is clearly a cut above the rest. AFL's Brownlow predictor had him on 33 pre-count. The odds had im at $8. Does this sound like an all-time kind of season? Crazy discrepancy.

You also can't tell me its because there's nobody there to take votes off him, he polled 3 in multiple losses. In fact they went 2-6 in the last 8 rounds and he polled 15 votes!
 
Happy_Neale said:
45 votes is diabolical. That sort of number should be reserved for all time seasons where a single player is clearly a cut above the rest. AFL's Brownlow predictor had him on 33 pre-count. The odds had im at $8. Does this sound like an all-time kind of season? Crazy discrepancy.

You also can't tell me its because there's nobody there to take votes off him, he polled 3 in multiple losses. In fact they went 2-6 in the last 8 rounds and he polled 15 votes!
Click to expand...

It got to the point where the crowd were upset at him not getting any votes in their 12 goal loss in Round 22.

Even the AFL's website is highlighting all the times where the Brownlow votes differed massively to the Coach votes.
 
PetterdHoisted said:
Not a word from Greg Baum in the 9 media about the statistical departure from reality of the Brownlow count this year.

Just another by-the-numbers article, and if he won't say a word, no journo other will either.

Nothing on Dillon's wife's pre-reveal either.

'Issues' don't exist in the AFL..
Click to expand...

I actually can't believe nobody has jumped on Dillon's wife comment about Bont not being in the mix. Been absolute crickets. Unbelievable!!!
 
FlowersByIrene said:
Below analysis stolen from this reddit post:

For those taking the "Coaches should vote the Brownlow approach", terms out Cripps was equally as respected by those coaches with only two anomalous voted games, which contributed 4 of his 45 votes. It really wasn't that unusual. Turns out whatever metric you look at Cripps had an amazing year.

  • Of the 12 matches where Cripps polled 3 votes
    • The Coaches ALSO had him as BOG or equal BOG (round 24) in 7 of those.
    • Of the 5 he wasn't BOG by the coaches, he was:
      • 2nd for 3 (Round 1 vs Richmond [7 Votes] Win, Round 12 vs Port [7 Votes] Win, and Round 19 vs North [8 Votes] Win)
      • 3rd for 1 (Round 3 vs North Melbourne [6 Votes] Win)
      • 4th for 1 (Round 9 vs Melbourne [4 Votes] Win) - This was the ONLY game where he polled 3 votes and wasn't in the best 3 as deemed by the coaches
  • There were 2 games where Cripps got 0 coaches votes, but got Brownlow votes.
    • Round 4 vs Fremantle (2 Brownlow votes) - Win
    • Round 13 vs Essendon (2 Brownlow votes) - Wi

  • Of the 13 matches Carlton won this year, Cripps polled the following:
    • 3 Votes (10 Times)
    • 2 Votes (2 Times)
    • The only game we won where he didn't poll 2+ votes was Opening Round against Brisbane, where he received 0 Brownlow votes
      • Also received 0 Coaches Votes
  • Of the 10 games Carlton lost, Cripps polled votes in 5
    • 3 Votes (Both incredibly close losses decided in the last minutes)
      • Round 21 vs Collingwood - 3 Point loss (1st in Coaches Votes with 9)
      • Round 24 vs St. Kilda - 2 Point loss (Equal 1st in Coaches Votes with 8, 3 way tie)
    • 2 Votes
      • Round 7 vs Geelong (2 Votes) - 13 Point loss (4th in Coaches Votes with 4)
      • Round 18 vs Western Bulldogs (2 Votes) - 14 Point loss (3rd in Coaches Votes with 6)
    • 1 Vote
      • Round 17 vs GWS (1 Vote) - 12 Point loss (Equal 2nd in Coaches Votes with 4, 5 way tie - only Carlton player in the votes)
Click to expand...

Nice analysis but this would need to be done for Daicos as well who had more coaches votes but lost the count. If anything I think this proves the standard for votes differs WILDLY between umpires
 
Just to emphasise the points being made in this thread...

I picked a random year from the 90's (1993) and compared the top 15...

From that year, the top 15 (I counted all 6 players that were equal 15th)...

There were 5 rucks, 4 forwards, 1 defender (who won the award) and 10 mids (some of whom could be argued were more half backs).

In 2024, obviously all 15 were full time mids.

In '93, the average votes for the top 15 was 13 votes. IN '2024, the average for the top 15 was 27 votes! (which would have been enough to win the Brownlow in 85 of the 100 years to date).
 
45 Patrick Cripps
38 Nick Daicos
29 Zak Butters
28 Isaac Heeney, Caleb Serong
27 Tom Green
26 Adam Treloar
25 Errol Gulden, Matt Rowell
24 Jai Newcombe
23 Chad Warner
22 Lachie Neale, Andrew Brayshaw
19 Marcus Bontempelli, Jason Horne-Francis


Decent leaderboard... Predictable enough. Heavily biased towards the inside midfielder / contested ball winners, but I can't really argue with any of the players in the Top 15. Chuck in Hogan, Holmes, Zorko, Moore, Waterman and Blakey and it's pretty much the Top 20 best footballers of 2024

Maybe the Bont could've scored another 5 or 6 votes. Cripps and Daicos probably got too many votes, polling in a few games when they were just average (or played one great quarter of footy.)

Who cares? Probably the right result.

It appears to be only a matter of time before Tom Green joins Cripps, Neale, Fyfe, Danger, Wines, Priddis and T.Mitchell as Brownlow Medal-winning inside mids. You can put the house on that... or take it to the bank.


All the complaints are so predictable. People on here whinge about EVERYTHING!!
... and they have the temerity to call Hawthorn a bunch of sooks... 🤣

Why the f*** would anyone sook about Brownlow Medal votes, for crying out loud! People place way too much importance on these things. No need to cry about it. It's just an award. Cripps is no better nor worse as a footballer just because he had a second medal draped around his neck last night.

Anyway... well done, Crippa. Well deserved.
 
Last edited:
Cyclops said:
Poor umps have the AFL in their ears (literally), rule changes from week to week and no apparent independence. Thats a lot of white noise, no winder they opt for safe bets. Daicos and Cripps will probably still be getting Brownlow votes after they retire.
Click to expand...

Be interesting to know if they continue to pay a salary to Razor Ray despite him being retireed, because he is always happy to share his opinion on things.

Could very easily open up on a heap of subjects.

Back One Out said:
Decent leaderboard... Predictable enough. Heavily biased towards the inside midfielder / contested ball winners, but I can't really argue with any of the players in the Top 15. Maybe the Bont could've scored another 5 or 6 votes. Cripps and Daicos probably got too many votes, polling in a few games when they were just average (or played one great quarter of footy.)

Yeah, whatever... Who cares? Probably the right result.

45 Patrick Cripps
38 Nick Daicos
29 Zak Butters
28 Isaac Heeney, Caleb Serong
27 Tom Green
26 Adam Treloar
25 Errol Gulden, Matt Rowell
24 Jai Newcombe
23 Chad Warner
22 Lachie Neale, Andrew Brayshaw
19 Marcus Bontempelli, Jason Horne-Francis


It appears to be only a matter of time before Tom Green joins Crippa, Neale, Fyfe, Danger, Wines, Priddis and T.Mitchell as Brownlow Medal-winning inside mids
Click to expand...

Treloar had a great year but was he really significantly better than Bont?

Ignoring the ridiculous vote count, the position of most of the players is correct, but Treloar well ahead of Bont just feels out of place.

Stottzy said:
I actually can't believe nobody has jumped on Dillon's wife comment about Bont not being in the mix. Been absolute crickets. Unbelievable!!!
Click to expand...

This is the week the AFL give out Grand Final tickets to journos and commentatoes. There is no way they are going to risk biting that hand.
 
The one thing I have always struggled with umpiring is giving out votes. In my head I just think it's team A v team B and make decisions as if I don't know the individual or teams playing so I'm as impartial as possible. Makes it hard to then switch from that mindset to thinking who were the best three players on the day. Some umpires are great at it and always pull out names that match up with the stats and club's best, a few though struggle.
 

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Brownlow 2024 Brownlow Medal Count - Congrats Patrick Cripps!

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