AFL 2024 Brownlow Medal

[balmainforever]

Anyone putting up winning or very unlucky losing bets after the count will be given a card.
Everyone has been warned.

 

[Sausage Legs]

33 - Cripps
32 - Neale
29 - N Daicos
26 - Butters - Heeney*
24 - Whitfield
23 - Merrett
22 - Bontompelli
21 - Treloar / Anderson / T Green
20 - Gulden / Warner
19 - Gawn / Rowell
18 - Serong / Wines
17 - Mcluggage / Dunkley
15 - Brayshaw

Presuming u loading whit team votes at yuuge odds

 

[Johanpetro]

Presuming u loading whit team votes at yuuge odds

I’ve got him on 13.. crazy dif. Can’t see him getting close to Green

 

[Sausage Legs]

I’ve got him on 13.. crazy dif. Can’t see him getting close to Green

Bout the same

 

[NYRB]

North v Collingwood definitely review, Naicos dragged them over the line second half. 2.5 for him I'd imagine.

2 votes in my spreadsheet

Yep this was my initial half time report on the votes back when I saw it first time ....I know something was a bit off since I didnt have N Daicos or Hill listed there.

At Half Time the rank of players was 3) Larkey 2) Wardlaw 1) LDU:




I had the same pecking order reviewing it a 2nd time at half time.


Watching it a 2nd time. Larkey did bugger all after quarter time. Wardlaw had less impact in 2nd half but had the better overall game. LDU fell off.

I think in a high scoring game Bobby Hill with 5 goals has to be in there for votes. The 3-2-1 is too tight to call for this. But at Full time I went 3) Wardlaw 2) N Daicos 1) Bobby Hill

Attached is the Full-time spreadsheet probability /odds:



In a high scoring game, Bobby Hills 5 goals have less significance. I somehow had in the back of my memory he kicked 4 goals. Larkey kicked 4 goals, Schultz 4 goals, Zurhaar 3 goals, N Daicos 2 goals, Wardlaw 1 goal.

My spreadsheet initially had the half-time votes- which was clearly wrong.

Generally believe the 3-2-1 for this game could be a raffle.

Id be happy to take either Wardlaw or N Daicos in the 3 Vote Markets around the 2.80-3.50 range. Again I reckon the books might be a bit too smart with the pricing when it comes out.

 

[Spooka]

What does everyone have for Richmond’s count? It’s gonna be extremely low count, only winning 2 games.

Just hear me out Noah balta

21

Noah Balta

Age

25

Ht

194cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.8

2star

K

6.7

3star

HB

3.1

3star

M

2.7

3star

T

1.9

4star

MG

236.3

4star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.7

3star

HB

5.3

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

0.3

1star

MG

233.0

4star

D

7.0

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

2.0

2star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.8

4star

MG

217.4

4star

$26, I remember watching round 1, thinking he would possibly get the 2 or 3, and same in round 13 big frame stands out, was forward and back, polled in similar game last year. If he was to get 5 votes from those 2 games, Is that enough? Or even to equal, is still $13.

Feel like it’s worth a little risk, at the odds anyway!

 

[Johanpetro]

What does everyone have for Richmond’s count? It’s gonna be extremely low count, only winning 2 games.

Just hear me out Noah balta $26, I remember watching round 1, thinking he would possibly get the 2 or 3, and same in round 13 big frame stands out, was forward and back, polled in similar game last year. If he was to get 5 votes from those 2 games, Is that enough? Or even to equal, is still $13.

Feel like it’s worth a little risk, at the odds anyway!

Not the worst call. I have him on 2 but can also see him polling in round 13. I have Vlastuin winning in an extremely low count for them. He’s $10…….. afl predictor has Taranto on 10 votes which I think is ridiculous

Edit: Vlastuin 3 way equal leader on second look with Taranto and Bolton

 

[Sausage Legs]

Reckon 4 votes wins tiges. Don't forget ties in low counts like this. I don't think he gets the 3, but rioli won a medal against saints a few weeks ago. If the umps follow suit, he's a shot. Have taranto 4 also.

Come time sbet allow multis and the money floods in I can see jizz cameron starting 1.15, yeo, 1.20, heen 1.20, nuke 1.10. Happens every year.

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Reckon 4 votes wins tiges. Don't forget ties in low counts like this. I don't think he gets the 3, but rioli won a medal against saints a few weeks ago. If the umps follow suit, he's a shot. Have taranto 4 also.

Come time sbet allow multis and the money floods in I can see jizz cameron starting 1.15, yeo, 1.20, heen 1.20, nuke 1.10. Happens every year.

Got Rioli 23s last week so I hope you're right Big chance to poll in that saints game and last game against the suns with 30 and 2. Tigers low volume count so anything can happen and happy with the price, 3.50 now so probably wouldn't be touching that now at current price and just watch it all unfold. As others mentioned before Vlaust also a sneaky chance and I've got him at big prices as well.

 

[NYRB]

Reckon 4 votes wins tiges. Don't forget ties in low counts like this. I don't think he gets the 3, but rioli won a medal against saints a few weeks ago. If the umps follow suit, he's a shot. Have taranto 4 also.

Come time sbet allow multis and the money floods in I can see jizz cameron starting 1.15, yeo, 1.20, heen 1.20, nuke 1.10. Happens every year.

Thanks for the reminder. I gave Rioli 0 on initial inspection. Ive now added that to my review list. I didnt even have him in my Top 11 players on the field. That probably is a fair indicator is all out of whack.

Do they give 2 Ian Stewart Medals in a season? Richmond and Saints did play twice in 2024.

 

[sohohoho]

once per year for it.
3 votes come from the winner ~70% of the time.

 

[NYRB]

Got Rioli 23s last week so I hope you're right Big chance to poll in that saints game and last game against the suns with 30 and 2. Tigers low volume count so anything can happen and happy with the price, 3.50 now so probably wouldn't be touching that now at current price and just watch it all unfold. As others mentioned before Vlaust also a sneaky chance and I've got him at big prices as well.

once per year for it.
3 votes come from the winner ~70% of the time.

Trends suggest that winner of Ian Stewart Medal traditionally come from the winning side. Green indicates actual winner of Stewart Medal and player who Polled 3 Votes on Brownlow night. Red indicates Medal winner but didnt poll 3 Votes on Brownlow night:


The one result where the player from the losing team won the Medal was in 2012 when J Riewoldt kicked 7 goals but polled 1 Brownlow vote. 18 of the past 19 winners have come from winning teams. (excluding the Draw)

My initial instinct was Marshall was Best on Ground. David Schwarz is a crap punter and maybe trying to influence team votes. Sarah Black is someone I have never heard of. Id back the umpires votes over those two any day of the week. Nicholson has a better read of games from what I have heard of him working for Channel 7 comms.

2024 Ian Stewart Medal votes​

8 - Daniel Rioli (RICH)
7 - Rowan Marshall (STK)
3 - Josh Battle (STK)

Alister Nicholson

3 - Rowan Marshall (STK)
2 - Daniel Rioli (RICH)
1 - Josh Battle (STK)

Sarah Black

3 - Daniel Rioli (RICH)
2 - Rowan Marshall (STK)
1 - Josh Battle (STK)

David Schwarze

3 - Daniel Rioli (RICH)
2 - Rowan Marshall (STK)
1 - Josh Battle (STK)

 

[Spooka]

Tom green

12

Tom Green

Age

23

Ht

192cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

4star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

3star

CL

2.8

4star

D

11.5

3star

K

4.3

2star

HB

7.3

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.3

4star

CL

2.8

5star

top 5 $5.50 on dabble, not bad

 

[Johanpetro]

Tom green top 5 $5.50 on dabble, not bad

I’d load up on top 10 at $2 if I weren’t banned. Is $1.20 on tab

 

[Spooka]

Presuming u loading whit team votes at yuuge odds

Surely his loading Whitfield $7 top 20! I only have him on 12..

 

[NYRB]

I did some quirky stats

Jeremy Cameron when he has 4+ Goals , from 2017-2023. Polls at least a vote in 23 of those 30 games.

When he kicks exactly 3 goals, in the same time frame. He polls at least a vote in 3 of those 32 games.

Ill have to go back and possibly review the games against Carlton in Rd 7 and Hawks in Rd 17.

I did a review of Round 17 Geelong v Hawks. I think this may be a game where J Cameron bucks the trend and may not sneak a vote in despite kicking 4. I had in the back of my memory he kicked 5 goals, but he actually kicked 4 goals with a junk time goal in the last 4-5 minutes. Close had 4 goals as well.

Did go wit 3) Stewart 2) Close 1) Duncan on 1st review.

Second review went 3) Stewart 2) Worpel 1) J Cameron with a bit of bias knowing he kicked 4 before the preview.


I reckon at best J Cameron polls max 1 vote here but can easily see him getting nothing as well.

 

[NonPhixion]

Wines T20 $18 on TAB looks value

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Wines T20 $18 on TAB looks value

How does your Port count look like?

Surely the Horn is the main danger to Butters. Has had a great year and was getting 3’s out of nowhere last season.

 

[NYRB]

I did a review of Round 17 Geelong v Hawks. I think this may be a game where J Cameron bucks the trend and may not sneak a vote in despite kicking 4. I had in the back of my memory he kicked 5 goals, but he actually kicked 4 goals with a junk time goal in the last 4-5 minutes. Close had 4 goals as well.

Did go wit 3) Stewart 2) Close 1) Duncan on 1st review.

Second review went 3) Stewart 2) Worpel 1) J Cameron with a bit of bias knowing he kicked 4 before the preview.


I reckon at best J Cameron polls max 1 vote here but can easily see him getting nothing as well.

These were my probability numbers after using a 50:50 ratio for Reviews 1 and Reviews 2 for Rd 17 Geelong v Hawthorn.

My guess is for the 3 Vote Markets , Stewart wont be bigger than $3 from the sportsbooks.




And Im going to put it on for a 3rd review as the 2 and 1 is almost a raffle for me. Anyone under $25 in the weighted odds could poll the 1 or 2 for me. Names like: Miers, Worpel, Brad Close, J Cameron, Duncan, Bowes, De Koning and Rohan.

Would love to see a 1-2 Quinella Market for that, or even a Trifecta for that match.

 

[Johanpetro]

These were my probability numbers after using a 50:50 ratio for Reviews 1 and Reviews 2 for Rd 17 Geelong v Hawthorn.

My guess is for the 3 Vote Markets , Stewart wont be bigger than $3 from the sportsbooks.

View attachment 2094635


And Im going to put it on for a 3rd review as the 2 and 1 is almost a raffle for me. Anyone under $25 in the weighted odds could poll the 1 or 2 for me. Names like: Miers, Worpel, Brad Close, J Cameron, Duncan, Bowes, De Koning and Rohan.

Would love to see a 1-2 Quinella Market for that, or even a Trifecta for that match.

I dunno , I remember that game. Have J Cameron 3. He was very very good. Got the 10 perfect 10 coaches votes as well.

 

[cruskits]

Cheers for insights above NYRB and Johanpetro and others. Pretty cool to see the detail people go into and comments that go with it.

 

[NYRB]

I dunno , I remember that game. Have J Cameron 3. He was very very good. Got the 10 perfect 10 coaches votes as well.

He was good but think he had 2 or 3 goals in the 2nd half when the game was pretty much over. Might be an important vote for guys on him for Top 20, Top 30 (if thats a thing) or so. (or in Geelongs team votes in some case)

 

[pendlebury_10]

Not the worst call. I have him on 2 but can also see him polling in round 13. I have Vlastuin winning in an extremely low count for them. He’s $10…….. afl predictor has Taranto on 10 votes which I think is ridiculous

Edit: Vlastuin 3 way equal leader on second look with Taranto and Bolton

I’ve also got Vlaustin on 4 votes from a host of others on 3. Still $10 available at TAB.

 

[stusubz]

I have looked at this forum for many many years, even through the glory days of 2010 etc..... this my first post.....
With history showing that ruckmen can struggle on brownlow night, I think the team votes, Gawn ($1.18) V Petracca ($4.50) is an definite option to look at in multis. I expect Petracca to get over the line. It wouldn't surprise me if gawn polls less than 10. if you look at melbourne win games, which are his probable polling games, I expect him to poll in round
2, 12 and ?4, ?8 only.
good luck everyone!

 

[stusubz]

opening round confuses things, Gawn to poll R1, 11, ?3 ?7 IMO

 

[Spooka]

Can I ask what people have LDU vs Sheezel on?

I have LDU, trying to see how it’s $2 vs $2.. considering LDU polled really well last year