Position 2024 Fantasy Rucks

[Phar Ace]

Round 0 sees the clash of "MATES"...... well former team mates at least GRUNDY vs GAWN. The massive plan of tag teaming Grundy with Gawn was a much heralded fail.

From a Fantasy perspective, we don't care how much Collingwood was paying of Grundy's salary, or even if any of that goes to Sydney now. We just want a durable ruck who can give a viable alternative to English or Marshall at a fraction of the cost. We are bargain hunting here! So we look first at last season:



Then Grundy's output the season before (2022):


And for good measure, the season before that (2021):


It's not a particularly deep dive. Impacts the big Cox and Darcy Cameron

14

Darcy Cameron

Age

29

Ht

204cm

Wt

103kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

6.0

1star

K

3.3

1star

HB

2.7

2star

CL

0.3

2star

HO

5.3

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

3.0

2star

CL

0.5

3star

HO

3.5

5star

D

6.0

2star

K

3.3

2star

HB

2.7

3star

CL

0.3

2star

HO

5.3

5star

has had on his output could be looked at as well, but I doubt it will have a material effect on the following question:

If you are considering Brodie Grundy

4

Brodie Grundy

Age

30

Ht

202cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.5

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

9.6

5star

CL

4.1

5star

HO

32.0

5star

D

16.4

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

9.6

5star

CL

4.0

5star

HO

34.6

5star

D

13.8

4star

K

5.2

2star

HB

8.6

5star

CL

2.6

5star

HO

20.6

5star

for your Fantasy side, what do you need to see from him in the Mates Showdown in Sydney between Grundy and Gawn on Thursday March 7th?

 

[Mezzoculo]

Flynn apparently done his hammy for anyone brave enough to take a stab on him.

Wait. The game hasn't started yet?!

 

[tigs2010]

Wait. The game hasn't started yet?!

I wouldn't have been shocked if the post said Yeo and the game hadn't started. Flynn is odd

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

Wait. The game hasn't started yet?!

Tendon as well apparently to make it worse! Looks like he’ll be missing some time.

Maybe a training injury?

 

[stallon]

Tendon as well apparently to make it worse! Looks like he’ll be missing some time.

Maybe a training injury?

yep, yesterday at training supposedly

 

[powerrrrrrrrrrrr]

yep, yesterday at training supposedly

Real shame for him and you guys. Thought he would have been very solid if he got a good run.

Do you think this opens a place for Barnett to play some games? He’s my R3 in hope he gets some experience.

 

[Mezzoculo]

I wouldn't have been shocked if the post said Yeo and the game hadn't started. Flynn is odd

Well I guess he is the Nic Nat replacement. Doing a hammy before a ball is bounced in anger is probably taking his new role a little too far though.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I wouldn't have been shocked if the post said Yeo and the game hadn't started. Flynn is odd

Yeo forever !

 

[stallon]

Real shame for him and you guys. Thought he would have been very solid if he got a good run.

Do you think this opens a place for Barnett to play some games? He’s my R3 in hope he gets some experience.

I doubt its Barnett, id look to Waterman probably doing some rucking, maybe Jack Williams too.
Barnett is probably a next year prospect I think

 

[Phar Ace]

I doubt its Barnett, id look to Waterman probably doing some rucking, maybe Jack Williams too.
Barnett is probably a next year prospect I think

Think he (Barnett) was talked up a little as a sneaky chance by Calvin on Traders

 

[stallon]

Think he (Barnett) was talked up a little as a sneaky chance by Calvin on Traders

He is a chance, but pretty unlikely I think. More than likely they replace Flynn with a forward who can pinch hit in the ruck, same as last year.
So BWilliams would do the Flynn role and Livingstone/J.Williams/Waterman come in and play as a forward pinch hitting in the ruck like BW was gonna do is what I expect, keeping the game plan very similar.
Barnett is more of a pure ruckman

 

[Barrybran]

Think he (Barnett) was talked up a little as a sneaky chance by Calvin on Traders

Nek minnit....

 

[Phar Ace]

Nek minnit....

Think it was more about Barnett being a $200k R3 or Utility and a sneaky chance to get a game or two - meaning if Flynn out he gets up the pecking order slightly. Also we need to think about a looping player the first six rounds

 

[wahooo]

Had been pretty keen on starting Grundy and Xerri but with having Adams and Jordon in my forward line I think it makes sense bye wise to start Gawn.

I realise I could have bench cover from the rooks in my forward line in round 5 but not sure I want to run that risk.

Gawn will also likely be easier to get up to Marshall/English if I want one of them going into Gawn's bye.

Round zero is an absolute piece of shit but at least it will make the Gawn or Grundy decision for me.

 

[Gold_Cat]

Thinking of making a rogue play and starting with Xerri as utility.

• Will come on for Grundy / Gawn byes. Will lose points him being on the bench but will hopefully pick some up when grundy/gawn are out.
• Overall handy Ruck cover if Grundy / Gawn go down early or if either disappoints ( Last year ironically Xerri went down and i couldn't reach English which was the sliding doors moment for me last season)
• Can loop Xerri as he has early games rounds 1-6 - i.e. hopefully can do 1-2 130+'s as solo ruck
• Will make a heap of cash early on and will help me jump on a bolter and or jump on someone coming off their bye.
• Easy trade down to a cheap rookie that's killing it and upgrade on the other end.

Overall it's a risk mitigation strategy and if it doesn't work out, it's easy to jump on mid price bolters or premiums that seem to be the picks of the season.

 

[happy_eagle]

Thinking of making a rogue play and starting with Xerri as utility.

• Will come on for Grundy / Gawn byes. Will lose points him being on the bench but will hopefully pick some up when grundy/gawn are out.
• Overall handy Ruck cover if Grundy / Gawn go down early or if either disappoints ( Last year ironically Xerri went down and i couldn't reach English which was the sliding doors moment for me last season)
• Can loop Xerri as he has early games rounds 1-6 - i.e. hopefully can do 1-2 130+'s as solo ruck
• Will make a heap of cash early on and will help me jump on a bolter and or jump on someone coming off their bye.
• Easy trade down to a cheap rookie that's killing it and upgrade on the other end.

Overall it's a risk mitigation strategy and if it doesn't work out, it's easy to jump on mid price bolters or premiums that seem to be the picks of the season.

Selby did a breakdown of this option on one of the MM podcasts, and it does seem to be an option that works out points wise (in terms of what you gain vs what you lose).
Although I wouldn't do it if we get Conway named for R1.

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Thinking of making a rogue play and starting with Xerri as utility.

• Will come on for Grundy / Gawn byes. Will lose points him being on the bench but will hopefully pick some up when grundy/gawn are out.
• Overall handy Ruck cover if Grundy / Gawn go down early or if either disappoints ( Last year ironically Xerri went down and i couldn't reach English which was the sliding doors moment for me last season)
• Can loop Xerri as he has early games rounds 1-6 - i.e. hopefully can do 1-2 130+'s as solo ruck
• Will make a heap of cash early on and will help me jump on a bolter and or jump on someone coming off their bye.
• Easy trade down to a cheap rookie that's killing it and upgrade on the other end.

Overall it's a risk mitigation strategy and if it doesn't work out, it's easy to jump on mid price bolters or premiums that seem to be the picks of the season.

Tried a team with this strategy and it looked sh*t

 

[Shaunn]

Just thinking, just say you're running Gawn/Grundy, if theirs no cheap bench option in round 1 surely you can't run both and just go Grundy down to Xerri.

 

[Tex Danger]

Just thinking, just say you're running Gawn/Grundy, if theirs no cheap bench option in round 1 surely you can't run both and just go Grundy down to Xerri.

I think you can, chances of Conway for eg being in your top 18 scores is pretty low if you’ve got 22 on field so if you thin Grundy best value go for it

But the bigger worry is how many other rd 5/6 players you may have making that depth pool shakier if you don’t move then on at/before the bye

 

[Shaunn]

I think you can, chances of Conway for eg being in your top 18 scores is pretty low if you’ve got 22 on field so if you thin Grundy best value go for it

But the bigger worry is how many other rd 5/6 players you may have making that depth pool shakier if you don’t move then on at/before the bye

I feel Ruckman will always score 50+ unless its shared.


Yeah not wrong, reason why paying up for good bench options will be vital early on.

 

[Tex Danger]

I feel Ruckman will always score 50+ unless its shared.


Yeah not wrong, reason why paying up for good bench options will be vital early on.

They should but is another player scoring 50 likely to alter your best 18 score if you have a full field to choose from? Marginal at best if at all

 

[samFFC]

Grundy/Xerri and upgrade Grundy at early bye to either RoMa or English.

 

[happy_eagle]

Grundy/Xerri and upgrade Grundy at early bye to either RoMa or English.

I think you (and a lot of coaches in general) overestimate the amount of cash generation that is going to be possible at Round 5.

At current prices that upgrade costs close to $400k. You aren't going to get that level of cash generation. If Grundy starts well and one of the others start poor then you might shave 100k off that figure.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I think you (and a lot of coaches in general) overestimate the amount of cash generation that is going to be possible at Round 5.

At current prices that upgrade costs close to $400k. You aren't going to get that level of cash generation. If Grundy starts well and one of the others start poor then you might shave 100k off that figure.

Spot on !

 

[samFFC]

I think you (and a lot of coaches in general) overestimate the amount of cash generation that is going to be possible at Round 5.

At current prices that upgrade costs close to $400k. You aren't going to get that level of cash generation. If Grundy starts well and one of the others start poor then you might shave 100k off that figure.

Fair points.
Though I disagree on the maths, please correct where I am wrong.

Grundy $677,000 - priced at 75.
Conservatively estimating his scores over 5 rounds:
-Melbourne 80
-Collingwood 95
-Essendon 95
-Richmond 90
-WC 105
Average 93-95.

Would see him rise by around 20k per match (double in the first round) -> approx $780,000

English $1,071,000 - priced at 118.7
Similar fixtures - Demons, Bombers, Eagles and has Suns/Cats instead of Pies/Tigers
So would estimate he goes around 110-115 over that time. Would see him fall by around 10-15k per match -> approx $1.02m

Which is a difference of ~240k. Even if English maintains price, it would be ~290k.

There will be a rookie maxing out around 400k that can gain 200k in R4-5, so it only requires a little cash.

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

Max has a record of not going big in Rd 1.