Position 2024 Fantasy Rucks

[Phar Ace]

Round 0 sees the clash of "MATES"...... well former team mates at least GRUNDY vs GAWN. The massive plan of tag teaming Grundy with Gawn was a much heralded fail.

From a Fantasy perspective, we don't care how much Collingwood was paying of Grundy's salary, or even if any of that goes to Sydney now. We just want a durable ruck who can give a viable alternative to English or Marshall at a fraction of the cost. We are bargain hunting here! So we look first at last season:



Then Grundy's output the season before (2022):


And for good measure, the season before that (2021):


It's not a particularly deep dive. Impacts the big Cox and Darcy Cameron

14

Darcy Cameron

Age

29

Ht

204cm

Wt

103kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

6.0

1star

K

3.3

1star

HB

2.7

2star

CL

0.3

2star

HO

5.3

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

4.5

2star

HB

3.0

2star

CL

0.5

3star

HO

3.5

5star

D

6.0

2star

K

3.3

2star

HB

2.7

3star

CL

0.3

2star

HO

5.3

5star

has had on his output could be looked at as well, but I doubt it will have a material effect on the following question:

If you are considering Brodie Grundy

4

Brodie Grundy

Age

30

Ht

202cm

Wt

105kg

Pos.

Ruck

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.5

4star

K

8.0

3star

HB

9.6

5star

CL

4.1

5star

HO

32.0

5star

D

16.4

4star

K

6.8

3star

HB

9.6

5star

CL

4.0

5star

HO

34.6

5star

D

13.8

4star

K

5.2

2star

HB

8.6

5star

CL

2.6

5star

HO

20.6

5star

for your Fantasy side, what do you need to see from him in the Mates Showdown in Sydney between Grundy and Gawn on Thursday March 7th?

 

[Phar Ace]

After last year I tried to create some 'rules' for my side. Set and forget rucks is one of them so danster's points are bang on. But Gawn/Grundy is pretty bloody tempting. Another rule I had for my side was to carry four rucks - R1-R3 and a RUC/FWD. This could be English / Marshall / Heath / Barnett but it could also be Gawn / Grundy / Jackson and one of Heath / Barnett / Soldo / Sweet / Xerri. There are SO many viable combinations this year.

The only downside I see to an English / Marshall pairing is that both have the R15 bye. There is a lot of time to tidy that up but who are you going to for those rounds? Likely some combination of Gawn and Grundy. So you're trading one of them in anyway.

I agree on Grundy, maybe Gawn, but are their diminished scoring (historically at least), and the extra bye worth the punt? Is it even a punt that just breaks even at best? If Grundy scores big in Round 0, I may have to tweak things a bit. Will Gawn outscore either English or Marshall to make the extra cash (183k / 162k) worth the exercise and risk?

 

[Barrybran]

I agree on Grundy, maybe Gawn, but are their diminished scoring (historically at least), and the extra bye worth the punt? Is it even a punt that just breaks even at best? If Grundy scores big in Round 0, I may have to tweak things a bit. Will Gawn outscore either English or Marshall to make the extra cash (183k / 162k) worth the exercise and risk?

Grundy, yes. Gawn, maybe.

SCG is one of the smallest grounds so Grundy should be able to go 95 easily, which would be a 20-point upgrade. Even if he only makes $150k, you should be able to flip him for English / Marshall at R5 (who hopefully fall by $50k-100k).

Gawn is a little trickier, I feel. If you're taking him, you're likely taking him to hold him all year. Who are you upgrading him to? English and Marshall both have the R15 bye. Gawn is likely the ruck you're trading into for the byes. If you're taking Gawn at any point you may as well take him at the start and ride out his R6 bye. But then you're potentially riding with $900k+ on the bench in R6.

You could go English / Marshall from the start but Gawn is priced around 92. Worst case scenario, English goes 120 and Gawn goes 95, in which case you would take English. But it is more likely to be English 115 and Gawn 105, in which case you're down 10 points with 26 points worth of cash to play with (not sure where you get 183k / 162k from; I've got 239k / 219k).

English + Marshall is the super safe set and forget play. English / Marshall + Grundy is a value play as you should be able to get Grundy to Marshall at R5 (though it does reduce flexibility in the event of injury). Gawn + Grundy is the risk v reward play. I think if you can stomach the R6 bye and noone gets injured you could potentially be riding with English + Gawn from R7 to the end. This is why I'm contemplating Jackson as well. He doesn't offer any upside unless Darcy goes down but he offsets ALL the byes of the major players and the forward line is so trash that he's likely a top 15 forward anyway.

Blicavs is potentially a left-field option with Geelong's early run but Geelong are surely going to need to try and phase him out soon.

 

[Phar Ace]

Grundy, yes. Gawn, maybe.

SCG is one of the smallest grounds so Grundy should be able to go 95 easily, which would be a 20-point upgrade. Even if he only makes $150k, you should be able to flip him for English / Marshall at R5 (who hopefully fall by $50k-100k).

Gawn is a little trickier, I feel. If you're taking him, you're likely taking him to hold him all year. Who are you upgrading him to? English and Marshall both have the R15 bye. Gawn is likely the ruck you're trading into for the byes. English, Marshall and Nankervis all have the R15 bye. If you're taking Gawn at any point you may as well take him at the start and ride out his R6 bye. But then you're potentially riding with $900k+ on the bench in R6.

You could go English / Marshall from the start but Gawn is priced around 92. Worst case scenario, English goes 120 and Gawn goes 95, in which case you would take English. But it is more likely to be English 115 and Gawn 105, in which case you're down 10 points with 26 points worth of cash to play with (not sure where you get 183k / 162k from; I've got 239k / 219k).

English + Marshall is the super safe set and forget play. English / Marshall + Grundy is a value play as you should be able to get Grundy to Marshall at R5 (though it does reduce flexibility in the event of injury). Gawn + Grundy is the risk v reward play. I think if you can stomach the R6 bye and noone gets injured you could potentially be riding with English + Gawn from R7 to the end. This is why I'm contemplating Jackson as well. He doesn't offer any upside unless Darcy goes down but he offsets ALL the byes of the major players and the forward line is so trash that he's likely a top 15 forward anyway.

Blicavs is potentially a left-field option with Geelong's early run but Geelong are surely going to need to try and phase him out soon.

Jackson is a genuine play as a FWD - at least until Rd6 - and if it's working, all the way through to Rnd 15. The free look at Grundy vs Gawn at the SCG is gold in Round 0. Gawn only managed 74 there in Rnd24 last year - interestingly rucking with support from Van Rooyen 24 / 15 hitouts respectively. That might be the combo of 2024 for the Dees.

Round 1 for Gawn is against English. Last year they were neck and neck Fantasy wise at the G - 113 v 115.

It looks delicately poised, but then you look at the overall season score difference of nearly 700 points to the favour of Timmy. Gawn 32 while English is 26. Gawn missed 3 games, virtually 4 - English played every game.

 

[Barrybran]

Jackson is a genuine play as a FWD - at least until Rd6 - and if it's working, all the way through to Rnd 15. The free look at Grundy vs Gawn at the SCG is gold in Round 0. Gawn only managed 74 there in Rnd24 last year - interestingly rucking with support from Van Rooyen 24 / 15 hitouts respectively. That might be the combo of 2024 for the Dees.

Round 1 for Gawn is against English. Last year they were neck and neck Fantasy wise at the G - 113 v 115.

It looks delicately poised, but then you look at the overall season score difference of nearly 700 points to the favour of Timmy. Gawn 32 while English is 26. Gawn missed 3 games, virtually 4 - English played every game.

The points difference isn't that big on a per game basis. Certainly not enough to cover the money saved. The age difference is a big factor though.

 

[4tune8]

Grundy, yes. Gawn, maybe.

SCG is one of the smallest grounds so Grundy should be able to go 95 easily, which would be a 20-point upgrade. Even if he only makes $150k, you should be able to flip him for English / Marshall at R5 (who hopefully fall by $50k-100k).

Gawn is a little trickier, I feel. If you're taking him, you're likely taking him to hold him all year. Who are you upgrading him to? English and Marshall both have the R15 bye. Gawn is likely the ruck you're trading into for the byes. If you're taking Gawn at any point you may as well take him at the start and ride out his R6 bye. But then you're potentially riding with $900k+ on the bench in R6.

You could go English / Marshall from the start but Gawn is priced around 92. Worst case scenario, English goes 120 and Gawn goes 95, in which case you would take English. But it is more likely to be English 115 and Gawn 105, in which case you're down 10 points with 26 points worth of cash to play with (not sure where you get 183k / 162k from; I've got 239k / 219k).

English + Marshall is the super safe set and forget play. English / Marshall + Grundy is a value play as you should be able to get Grundy to Marshall at R5 (though it does reduce flexibility in the event of injury). Gawn + Grundy is the risk v reward play. I think if you can stomach the R6 bye and noone gets injured you could potentially be riding with English + Gawn from R7 to the end. This is why I'm contemplating Jackson as well. He doesn't offer any upside unless Darcy goes down but he offsets ALL the byes of the major players and the forward line is so trash that he's likely a top 15 forward anyway.

Blicavs is potentially a left-field option with Geelong's early run but Geelong are surely going to need to try and phase him out soon.

Re the bolded bit, with Gawn's bye you have to factor in bringing on the 19th player as his replacement who would score around 60 which reduces Gawn's 105 down to a 96, then add the 26pts of cash saved giving a return of 122. it's a marginal gain and probably not worth it in isolation but if you add it to the savings from Grundy of $373k over Marshall then that's $612k and another keeper in the team saving at least 2 trades and more likely 3 trades.

I'm not a fan of ruck cover in this format because all you're essentially doing is bringing on a 19th-22nd player who's score likely won't count as well as having an underperforming player in the forwards. Meaning you swap Dogga into the rucks via DPP having the R3 now in the place of Dogga in the forwards, if he's a playing R3 then there's no need for the move (unless he's R15 as well) so you then have to move him to the bench and bring on that player. There might be DPP's on other lines or loopability but you're still bringing on a player who's score likely won't count anyway. I'd rather have the 6th-8th best forward rather than the 15th.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Jackson is a genuine play as a FWD - at least until Rd6 - and if it's working, all the way through to Rnd 15. The free look at Grundy vs Gawn at the SCG is gold in Round 0. Gawn only managed 74 there in Rnd24 last year - interestingly rucking with support from Van Rooyen 24 / 15 hitouts respectively. That might be the combo of 2024 for the Dees.

Round 1 for Gawn is against English. Last year they were neck and neck Fantasy wise at the G - 113 v 115.

It looks delicately poised, but then you look at the overall season score difference of nearly 700 points to the favour of Timmy. Gawn 32 while English is 26. Gawn missed 3 games, virtually 4 - English played every game.

Last 2 years MELB have sought to "manage" Gawn's minutes ....he goes into the season as a 32 YO

How will Melbourne manage Gawn this year ?

 

[4tune8]

Jackson is a genuine play as a FWD - at least until Rd6 - and if it's working, all the way through to Rnd 15. The free look at Grundy vs Gawn at the SCG is gold in Round 0. Gawn only managed 74 there in Rnd24 last year - interestingly rucking with support from Van Rooyen 24 / 15 hitouts respectively. That might be the combo of 2024 for the Dees.

Round 1 for Gawn is against English. Last year they were neck and neck Fantasy wise at the G - 113 v 115.

It looks delicately poised, but then you look at the overall season score difference of nearly 700 points to the favour of Timmy. Gawn 32 while English is 26. Gawn missed 3 games, virtually 4 - English played every game.

I'm not so sure on Dogga, he's a wait n see for mine and a certainty if shrek goes down. His average with shrek was 76.8, without 99.4 and with his price at 84.8 he's not worth starting. He did have some good scores last season with shrek playing but he also had a lot of poor scores.

 

[tigs2010]

I'm not so sure on Dogga, he's a wait n see for mine and a certainty if shrek goes down. His average with shrek was 76.8, without 99.4 and with his price at 84.8 he's not worth starting. He did have some good scores last season with shrek playing but he also had a lot of poor scores.

Shrek

 

[Phar Ace]

Last 2 years MELB have sought to "manage" Gawn's minutes ....he goes into the season as a 32 YO

How will Melbourne manage Gawn this year ?

It will be interesting to see if they Dee Rooyan him

 

[Zevon]

Well thanks everyone, now I’m severely doubting picking Gawn.

You all suck.

Love, Zevon

 

[tigs2010]

Well thanks everyone, now I’m severely doubting picking Gawn.

You all suck.

Love, Zevon

As if you’ve done a team you campaigner

 

[Phar Ace]

As if you’ve done a team you campaigner

I thought Zevon always rolls with Autopick

 

[WaynesWorld19]

I thought Zevon always rolls with Autopick

Please don't disrespect a Mod .....he gets a friend to do the team

 

[Zevon]

As if you’ve done a team you campaigner

I thought Zevon always rolls with Autopick

Please don't disrespect a Mod .....he gets a friend to do the team

 

[Barrybran]

Please don't disrespect a Mod .....he gets a friend to do the team

Giggity

 

[danster168]

After last year I tried to create some 'rules' for my side. Set and forget rucks is one of them so danster's points are bang on. But Gawn/Grundy is pretty bloody tempting. Another rule I had for my side was to carry four rucks - R1-R3 and a RUC/FWD. This could be English / Marshall / Heath / Barnett but it could also be Gawn / Grundy / Jackson and one of Heath / Barnett / Soldo / Sweet / Xerri. There are SO many viable combinations this year.

The only downside I see to an English / Marshall pairing is that both have the R15 bye. There is a lot of time to tidy that up but who are you going to for those rounds? Likely some combination of Gawn and Grundy. So you're trading one of them in anyway.

why would you be English or Marshall for Gawn or Grundy? That's bonkers talk. It's best 18 so you don't need to have anyone playing in the ruck. you just plan accordingly.

 

[danster168]

if you go English and Marshall, you almost need to have Jackson. Because if English or Marshall cop a 1 (or even 2) week injury then you can flick Jackson to replace one of them and then not have to burn trades

 

[Maurice Mitchell]

And they're priced 25 points apart. English is not going to be 25 points better than Gawn even if he averages 118 again.

Agreed. Won’t be 25 points.

With the extra game there’s a 100+ point head start which won’t be reeled in. I guess what you do with the extra 225k tells the story.

 

[4tune8]

Agreed. Won’t be 25 points.

With the extra game there’s a 100+ point head start which won’t be reeled in. I guess what you do with the extra 225k tells the story.

Nah not 100+pt head start, you have to add the 19th best score as it's best 18, say a 60 so it's a 40+pt loss.

 

[Phar Ace]

Nah not 100+pt head start, you have to add the 19th best score as it's best 18, say a 60 so it's a 40+pt loss.

It might even be less than that when you look at the cause & effect rather than the head to head.

Melbourne's 'extra bye' is round 6 with Richmond and a raft of new DDP's available. The Tiges are not very Fantasy relevant. So there are 8 games being played AND English comes up against Marshall that round on the Thursday night.

You could see a scenario where it could be anything - 40pts as stated or nothing at all. The DPP's could even take you in positive territory if played well.

If you are a Marshall, English, Gawn or Nank player, it might even be worth looking at that Round in conjunction with selections you make Round 1 to extrapolate what your best 18 might even be.

Starting to think that the 'extra Bye' is less of an issue All the 'extra games' are still represented by 8 games and should be capable getting 60-100 still from the best 18, so it may be mute point.

 

[4tune8]

It might even be less than that when you look at the cause & effect rather than the head to head.

Melbourne's 'extra bye' is round 6 with Richmond and a raft of new DDP's available. The Tiges are not very Fantasy relevant. So there are 8 games being played AND English comes up against Marshall that round on the Thursday night.

You could see a scenario where it could be anything - 40pts as stated or nothing at all. The DPP's could even take you in positive territory if played well.

If you are a Marshall, English, Gawn or Nank player, it might even be worth looking at that Round in conjunction with selections you make Round 1 to extrapolate what your best 18 might even be.

Starting to think the 'extra Bye' is less of an issue with all the 'extra games' represented by 8 games and best 18 from them.

That's something I'm yet to explore, match ups during those early bye rounds.

I was considering flicking Grundy to a Marshall/English before his bye and possibly starting Tom Green given he's up against WCE and North in rnds 1 & 2 then swap him for Walsh before his rnd 3 bye and after Walsh's rnd 2 bye, effectively leaving me with only one early bye premium missing in Gawn. The only issue with those moves is locking in trades when other things may have priority, like injuries or a must have rookie debuting.

 

[Phar Ace]

That's something I'm yet to explore, match ups during those early bye rounds.

I was considering flicking Grundy to a Marshall/English before his bye and possibly starting Tom Green given he's up against WCE and North in rnds 1 & 2 then swap him for Walsh before his rnd 3 bye and after Walsh's rnd 2 bye, effectively leaving me with only one early bye premium missing in Gawn. The only issue with those moves is locking in trades when other things may have priority, like injuries or a must have rookie debuting.

Yeah, the later (rookies debuting) can be compelling and unpredictable, so mentally locking in a trade carries a risk often greater than overthinking it.

I think you made a great point a couple posts back!

 

[4tune8]

Yeah, the later (rookies debuting) can be compelling and unpredictable, so mentally locking in a trade carries a risk often greater than overthinking it.

I think you made a great point a couple posts back!

Thanks, another extremely relevant point is the opportunity cost of starting say an English and Marshall over a Gawn and Grundy. I'm going with the latter 2 and the dosh saved allows me to bring in Stewart over Coffield. There's a couple of bonuses that I think outweigh the cost of those 2 missing an extra game, firstly there's the points gain with Stewart who could outscore Coffield by 40PPG, over 6 rounds that's 240pts, Grawndy lose say 80pts and to then break even with English/Marshall would have to score a combined 35PPG less, I can't really see the combinations being that far apart. Secondly, I have an extra premo in the team with Stewart saving me around 3 trades in upgrading to him.

I'm sort of using the same thinking but in reverse by starting Young over Daicos, the money saved get's me Zilliams and 1 less rookie on the field, Crouch over Green is similar.

In my team I'm currently looking at 13 keepers, 2 MP/stepping stones and 7 rookies. Over those early byes I'm hoping to have just the 3 rookie scores count with Grundy missing rnd5 and Gawn rnd6.

 

[Barrybran]

Yeah, the later (rookies debuting) can be compelling and unpredictable, so mentally locking in a trade carries a risk often greater than overthinking it.

I think you made a great point a couple posts back!

How many trades do you think you can realistically plan in a season? I eyed off Rory Laird his stinker in round 1 and every man and his dog was on the Merrett train, both of which proved to be good trades, but I wound up with Bontempelli and Butters before most as I was in the position to get those guys in at the time, meaning I missed out on those others until later.

 

[Phar Ace]

How many trades do you think you can realistically plan in a season? I eyed off Rory Laird his stinker in round 1 and every man and his dog was on the Merrett train, both of which proved to be good trades, but I wound up with Bontempelli and Butters before most as I was in the position to get those guys in at the time, meaning I missed out on those others until later.

I think the major Byes period is the best time to 'plan trades', as we have three each of those rounds.

Perhaps this planning need has been thrown at us some more this season to some extent, with the AFL brain fade of Round 0, then four minor bye rounds.

I'm not sure that Q is answerable right now before we see Round 0 - though perhaps your question is more rhetorical.

Every round of the major four bye round is capable of having at least one trade planned for. Last season I had 10 trades planned for at the beginning of the season and only effected 6. Not sure I'm typical though the way my side went from 141st to god knows where