Racing 2024 G1 Melbourne Cup (3200m)

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Going through the noms and filtering out all the ones that have none and having a look at what's left

Absurde - Not quite going as well as last year but can run top 10 again
Adelaide River - Going shit. Gelded since but that seems desperate
Arrest - Has turned into a bog average horse
Birdman - Dreadful last start
Changingoftheguard - Fair first up. Need to see over 2400m+
Circle Of Fire - Decent stayer but unders and likely to get a bit too much weight
Coco Sun - SA form not typically good enough
Delius - Really good French 3yo. Too good to come out though especially being a Coolmore horse
Eliyass - Sydney Metrop horse with class and distance being big doubts for me
Fawkner Park - Q22 win a big outlier on performance so would want to see him back that up
Future History - Didn't think he was good enough last year so wont be with him this year
Grosvenor Square - Seems unlikely to come
Harbour Wind - Seems unlikely to come
Hipop De Loire - Would have it above all the other Ebor runners
Illinois - Too good to come
Jan Brueghel - Surely too good to come as well
Kinesiology - Second tier 3yo. First across the line in the Vinnie Roe beating Birdman by 10L+
Land Legend - Decent chance has been Waller'd
Magical Zoe - Probably my second choice of the Ebor runners so hard to get too enthused
Middle Earth - Dreadful last start. Been gelded seems a bit desperate again
Place Du Carrousel - One of my top picks for the Caulfield Cup so has to be up there somewhat in the rankings
Point King - MV Cup horse
Point Lonsdale - Going shit and failed the vets last year
Poptronic - Another one that looks a Metrop horse if it comes back well
Que Tempesta - Good return in the Heatherlie. Italian form is generally rubbish but its here and running well at least
Relentless Voyager - Third pick of the Ebor runners so not keen at the moment
Riff Rocket - Seems incredibly unlikely to be on a Cup prep
Royal Supremecy - Similar second rate 3yo to The Euphrates and Kinesiology
Saint George - Great Euro form. Great return. One of the top seeds
Sayedaty Sadaty - Not a bad 3yo taking on the better Euro 3yos but run in the Gordon Stakes didnt look like a 2 mile horse.
Sea King - 4th pick of the Ebor runners and thus has little to no chance for me
The Equator - Least impressive of the 3yos in the mix
The Euphrates - Crossed the line with Kinesiology a couple back so similar level. They're about a Valiant King level of 3yo
Vauban - Terrible odds for a horse who we have a decent idea of his level out here.
Warp Speed - Second rate Japanese stayer who is very similar levels to a horse like Breakup last year
Without a Fight - Couldn't possibly entertain off the prep
Zardozi - Dont think it will even end up here but 4yo mares returning not a type that interests me
 
Absurde wins the Chester Stakes. Those types are rarely up to it out here though

Loft ran 2nd in it before coming out here
Selino 2nd before doing nothing in a lead up
Duretto won before running 4th in the CC
 

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Absurde wins the Chester Stakes. Those types are rarely up to it out here though

Loft ran 2nd in it before coming out here
Selino 2nd before doing nothing in a lead up
Duretto won before running 4th in the CC
Absurde looks better than last year to be fair
Was 6 wide on the turn and boxed on well
 

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They can have it as the main target all they want but he is still going to be a better chance at Flemington. If you haven't had a run below 2800m in Europe in over 2 years the chances of you being quick enough to win over 2400m out here is close to zero
 
Willie Mullins always been a Melb Cup aimed trainer it’ll be a MC campaign

Currently have 4 bets antepost

Saint George
Absurde
Jan Breughel
Harbour Wind

If any or all of those go I’m confident I have a chance at having the winner
 
Pretty accurate take Jug

Although I think if it doesn’t win the St Leger and just runs ok they’ll send Jan B (similar to Tiger Moth and Rekindling )

Also think Dermot sends Harbour Wind , he’s determined to have one last crack at the cup before retirement, this is likely last chance for him
 
Pretty accurate take Jug

Although I think if it doesn’t win the St Leger and just runs ok they’ll send Jan B (similar to Tiger Moth and Rekindling )

Also think Dermot sends Harbour Wind , he’s determined to have one last crack at the cup before retirement, this is likely last chance for him

Any of Jan Brueghel, Delius or Illinois come and they are probably top seed so definitely want to keep an ear out to what the plans are and the fact TOL was coming last year if he cleared the vets an ok sign.

Harbour Wind im going to be more than happy to wait and see. Weld didnt seem super keen last I heard saying possibly next year and he isn't good enough to warrant jumping in before you know for sure
 
Any of Jan Brueghel, Delius or Illinois come and they are probably top seed so definitely want to keep an ear out to what the plans are and the fact TOL was coming last year if he cleared the vets an ok sign.

Harbour Wind im going to be more than happy to wait and see. Weld didnt seem super keen last I heard saying possibly next year and he isn't good enough to warrant jumping in before you know for sure
I think Illinois wins the St Leger
Jan B is more dour

Reckon it comes and gets 54.5kg

Absurde won that Chester pretty effortlessly, I mentioned earlier up it was 6 wide from where he 650m mark in the cup last year , only hits the wall at the 200m
Get a better run in transit this year and is right in it
It can sprint when the button gets pushed unlike alot of UK plodders that have come over
 
I think Illinois wins the St Leger
Jan B is more dour

Reckon it comes and gets 54.5kg

Absurde won that Chester pretty effortlessly, I mentioned earlier up it was 6 wide from where he 650m mark in the cup last year , only hits the wall at the 200m
Get a better run in transit this year and is right in it
It can sprint when the button gets pushed unlike alot of UK plodders that have come over

If he gets 54.5 he wont be getting any of mine. That's DL levels of rorted

Chester Stakes wins aren't getting me that excited. Being 6 wide around the bend shouldnt have made any real difference last year, the only neg was he was left exposed earlier than they would want. Just wasn't good enough for me and can see him running a similar race again. Plenty with more upside for how short he is in the market
 

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Racing 2024 G1 Melbourne Cup (3200m)

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