Racing 2024 G1 Melbourne Cup (3200m)

[Jugada]

OCTOBER RANKINGS

1. SAINT GEORGE - The drop off for him seems ridiculous to me. An unlucky loss by 2L and everyone wants to be on him. An average 0.4L loss in the exact same sort of race and he is out the gate. Won't show near his best until he gets to the 2500-3200m range and expect he will be back to the top of the markets after the Bart Cummings.

2. WARP SPEED - Slides up a spot due to Place Du Carrousel shitting the bed.

3. JAN BRUEGHEL - Class Euro 3yo. I do have doubts on his tactical speed for Australian racing and is weighted up to his best for a horse with his record has to go in near the top. Won't be a betting prospect for me though unless we are getting in the $9-10 range on the day.

4. WARMONGER - D Day coming up in the Turnbull.

5. ABSURDE - Goes up a spot thanks to other flops.

6. PLACE DU CARROUSEL - Poor run first up but the track was complete shit so can forgive that run if she bounces back next time. Has to drop down the order though if she doesn't have the WFA class to off set the distance query.

7. SAYEDATY SEDATY - If you like Jan then you haver to have this guy in the mix I think. Run was fair behind him in the Gordon Stakes and will meet him 2.5kg better off for that day.

8. VAUBAN - Think he is too short and needs conditions to suit on the day which he probably wont get but needs to slot in here still.

9. COCO SUN - Think she has the upside to possibly elevate her level to what is required up in trip and she is already in the race with a light weight.

10. KINESIOLOGY - Just something outside the box who might have some upside. Fair 3yo form in Europe. Was joint favourite with Birdman in a race that we were watching to see how that horse would go and he was first across the line beating Birdman by 11 lengths but is 4x the price of that runner in markets.

 

[FFB1]

More than good enough. That's your #1 seed now that you know it's come back so well

Clearly settled in well. Still $34 SPB.

 

[TBellicious]

If anyone else liked the return of Future History today in the Heatherlie, he’s still 100-1 on TAB

 

[Jugada]

Absurde wins the Chester Stakes. Those types are rarely up to it out here though

Loft ran 2nd in it before coming out here
Selino 2nd before doing nothing in a lead up
Duretto won before running 4th in the CC

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Absurde wins the Chester Stakes. Those types are rarely up to it out here though

Loft ran 2nd in it before coming out here
Selino 2nd before doing nothing in a lead up
Duretto won before running 4th in the CC

Absurde looks better than last year to be fair
Was 6 wide on the turn and boxed on well

 

[Jugada]

Absurde looks better than last year to be fair
Was 6 wide on the turn and boxed on well

Not sure about that. Almost no chance that win will rate better than his Ebor win before coming last year and his 30 length loss before that doesn't scream going better

 

[FFB1]

Absurde looks better than last year to be fair
Was 6 wide on the turn and boxed on well

Was OK last year, but might be more of a Caulfield type this year?

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Was OK last year, but might be more of a Caulfield type this year?

Nah more suited to Flemington - definitely Melb cup horse

He was caught 6 wide last year on the turn and at the 250m was still in
Get a better run in transit he’s right in it

 

[cruskits]

Saint George into 21’s SB for MC. 51 to 26’s for CC

 

[Areyoufireal]

After last years success of WAF CC/MC double I'll have a ping at Saint George CC/MC double @ 546 B365

 

[FFB1]

After last years success of WAF CC/MC double I'll have a ping at Saint George CC/MC double @ 546 B365

Do they have a doubles market (can’t see it), or did you do the double Caulfield and Melbourne? Do 365 honour that price or do they do a TAB/SPB and you get a far less price?

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Do they have a doubles market (can’t see it), or did you do the double Caulfield and Melbourne? Do 365 honour that price or do they do a TAB/SPB and you get a far less price?

It’s letting you do the double and honouring the price

 

[Jugada]

Crazy that there is no related outcome juice for that double. I cant get on at 365 anyway so likely looking at half that for the double

 

[Jugada]

Feel like at this point you may as well wait for noms to come out on Tuesday anyway. As a rule prices are usually better once the no nom insurance is gone

 

[FFB1]

Crazy that there is no related outcome juice for that double. I cant get on at 365 anyway so likely looking at half that for the double

Can see them pulling the related outcome line if it happened to get up for sure.

 

[FFB1]

Nah more suited to Flemington - definitely Melb cup horse

He was caught 6 wide last year on the turn and at the 250m was still in
Get a better run in transit he’s right in it

Read just before that the main target is Caulfield.

 

[Jugada]

They can have it as the main target all they want but he is still going to be a better chance at Flemington. If you haven't had a run below 2800m in Europe in over 2 years the chances of you being quick enough to win over 2400m out here is close to zero

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Willie Mullins always been a Melb Cup aimed trainer it’ll be a MC campaign

Currently have 4 bets antepost

Saint George
Absurde
Jan Breughel
Harbour Wind

If any or all of those go I’m confident I have a chance at having the winner

 

[FFB1]

No TOL (expected), Crystal.

 

[cruskits]

When does the order of entry come out?

Is it Tuesday 17th September?

 

[Jugada]

When does the order of entry come out?

Is it Tuesday 17th September?

Yep same as the weights

 

[Jugada]

OCTOBER RANKINGS

1. SAINT GEORGE - The drop off for him seems ridiculous to me. An unlucky loss by 2L and everyone wants to be on him. An average 0.4L loss in the exact same sort of race and he is out the gate. Won't show near his best until he gets to the 2500-3200m range and expect he will be back to the top of the markets after the Bart Cummings.

2. WARP SPEED - Slides up a spot due to Place Du Carrousel shitting the bed.

3. JAN BRUEGHEL - Class Euro 3yo. I do have doubts on his tactical speed for Australian racing and is weighted up to his best for a horse with his record has to go in near the top. Won't be a betting prospect for me though unless we are getting in the $9-10 range on the day.

4. WARMONGER - D Day coming up in the Turnbull.

5. ABSURDE - Goes up a spot thanks to other flops.

6. PLACE DU CARROUSEL - Poor run first up but the track was complete shit so can forgive that run if she bounces back next time. Has to drop down the order though if she doesn't have the WFA class to off set the distance query.

7. SAYEDATY SEDATY - If you like Jan then you haver to have this guy in the mix I think. Run was fair behind him in the Gordon Stakes and will meet him 2.5kg better off for that day.

8. VAUBAN - Think he is too short and needs conditions to suit on the day which he probably wont get but needs to slot in here still.

9. COCO SUN - Think she has the upside to possibly elevate her level to what is required up in trip and she is already in the race with a light weight.

10. KINESIOLOGY - Just something outside the box who might have some upside. Fair 3yo form in Europe. Was joint favourite with Birdman in a race that we were watching to see how that horse would go and he was first across the line beating Birdman by 11 lengths but is 4x the price of that runner in markets.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Pretty accurate take Jug

Although I think if it doesn’t win the St Leger and just runs ok they’ll send Jan B (similar to Tiger Moth and Rekindling )

Also think Dermot sends Harbour Wind , he’s determined to have one last crack at the cup before retirement, this is likely last chance for him

 

[Jugada]

Pretty accurate take Jug

Although I think if it doesn’t win the St Leger and just runs ok they’ll send Jan B (similar to Tiger Moth and Rekindling )

Also think Dermot sends Harbour Wind , he’s determined to have one last crack at the cup before retirement, this is likely last chance for him

Any of Jan Brueghel, Delius or Illinois come and they are probably top seed so definitely want to keep an ear out to what the plans are and the fact TOL was coming last year if he cleared the vets an ok sign.

Harbour Wind im going to be more than happy to wait and see. Weld didnt seem super keen last I heard saying possibly next year and he isn't good enough to warrant jumping in before you know for sure

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Any of Jan Brueghel, Delius or Illinois come and they are probably top seed so definitely want to keep an ear out to what the plans are and the fact TOL was coming last year if he cleared the vets an ok sign.

Harbour Wind im going to be more than happy to wait and see. Weld didnt seem super keen last I heard saying possibly next year and he isn't good enough to warrant jumping in before you know for sure

I think Illinois wins the St Leger
Jan B is more dour

Reckon it comes and gets 54.5kg

Absurde won that Chester pretty effortlessly, I mentioned earlier up it was 6 wide from where he 650m mark in the cup last year , only hits the wall at the 200m
Get a better run in transit this year and is right in it
It can sprint when the button gets pushed unlike alot of UK plodders that have come over

 

[Jugada]

I think Illinois wins the St Leger
Jan B is more dour

Reckon it comes and gets 54.5kg

Absurde won that Chester pretty effortlessly, I mentioned earlier up it was 6 wide from where he 650m mark in the cup last year , only hits the wall at the 200m
Get a better run in transit this year and is right in it
It can sprint when the button gets pushed unlike alot of UK plodders that have come over

If he gets 54.5 he wont be getting any of mine. That's DL levels of rorted

Chester Stakes wins aren't getting me that excited. Being 6 wide around the bend shouldnt have made any real difference last year, the only neg was he was left exposed earlier than they would want. Just wasn't good enough for me and can see him running a similar race again. Plenty with more upside for how short he is in the market