2024 Ladder Predictions

[WalshistheGOAT]

Curnow out I think definitely derails Carlton given they scored 87 points more than Freo in 2023 which included Curnow kicking 400 odd.

But I mean, most teams would struggle a fair bit losing their no1 KPF. Not sure any could cover it. Pies are about to give it a whirl.

If Harry and one of our smalls fire we will be fine. McKay went from kicking at 60% to 37% and our small fwds were still young/inexperienced. I'm expecting one of Motlop, Durdin, Martin, Fantasia to have a good year. All have gotten through pre season so far and look fit.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

If they lose Curnow (or he has a poor season) they have nothing really.

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Take out any clubs best player and they likely have some issues.

It’s unlikely Curnow has a poor season unless he gets hobbled by injury and no one should want to see that.

 

[Joao]

If Harry and one of our smalls fire we will be fine. McKay went from kicking at 60% to 37% and our small fwds were still young/inexperienced. I'm expecting one of Motlop, Durdin, Martin, Fantasia to have a good year. All have gotten through pre season so far and look fit.

I understand your optimism, I just don't agree.

Same thing with Tex and the Crows. If he went down and Fogarty and/or Thilthorp didn't improve significantly, I think it makes it really difficult for them.

Both were massive last year.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I understand your optimism, I just don't agree.

Same thing with Tex and the Crows. If he went down and Fogarty and/or Thilthorp didn't improve significantly, I think it makes it really difficult for them.

Both were massive last year.

Maybe so, I think McKay is good enough at bringing the ball to ground on his own that we could cover Charlie for stretches. Obviously wouldn't have us in contention if Curnow was out long term but I don't think he's the only way we can win games. Our small forwards need to lift though because Charlie is practically our best crumber too which is an issue.

 

[Joao]

Maybe so, I think McKay is good enough at bringing the ball to ground on his own that we could cover Charlie for stretches. Obviously wouldn't have us in contention if Curnow was out long term but I don't think he's the only way we can win games. Our small forwards need to lift though because Charlie is practically our best crumber too which is an issue.

It's definitely not impossible. Those top tiers KPFs are mint though.

 

[Wolfgang West]

All the more reason for a wager if that's the fact

Going by his summation and critique of other teams best keep his cash in his pocket. Yours too if you are a disciple.

 

[BennyGFunk]

We almost made a GF with a hindered Charlie Curnow

30

Charlie Curnow

Age

28

Ht

194cm

Wt

94kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.3

3star

K

9.7

4star

HB

3.6

3star

M

5.3

5star

T

2.2

4star

G

1.3

5star

No current season stats available

D

10.8

3star

K

6.4

3star

HB

4.4

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.6

4star

G

0.8

4star

being little more than a decoy

 

[Orange crush]

We almost made a GF with a hindered Charlie Curnow being little more than a decoy

Hindered in a Gumpian sense

 

[PAFC66]

Honestly think blues win the flag this year, clearly Lions & Pies, then Dees, Sydney, GWS being the main threats

I see improvement in other clubs, but I can’t see the scope for improvement as much as what I see with Carlton.

Of course having a pretty healthy list come to the right time of the season will make a huge difference

You're not even top 8 certainties

 

[PAFC66]

We almost made a GF with a hindered Charlie Curnow being little more than a decoy

You were on a run playing a few banged up teams towards the end of the year. Absolutely no guarantee for that to happen again. When there's expectations you fall to shit. Let's wait and see.

 

[BennyGFunk]

You're not even top 8 certainties

No team is.. barring maybe Brisbane with their home ground advantage

Carlton are widely tipped from pundits as top 4 side, hardly groundbreaking to suggest they could win a premiership

 

[PAFC66]

This is the most even I can recall the comp ever being so predicting the ladder is a mug's game.
Home and Away:
1. Brisbane. Hungry. The important parts of their list will be fit and firing, Gabba.
2. Carlton. Will start better than last year, despite a harder draw. Solid list. Playing finals style.
3. Sydney. Hungry. List and depth now in place. Know what they need to do.
4. Collingwood. A little off last year's intensity will see them lose a few close ones. McStay and Murphy (possible new concussion) could hurt them.
5. Adelaide. Hungry. Talented. Defence is their risk. Highest scoring team last year.
6. GWS. Same as last year. Could finish higher.
7. St Kilda. Same as last year. Scoring still a problem.
8. Port Adelaide. Defence won't work. Disaster. Lucky to make the 8.
9. Melbourne. Read the papers. No forward line. Not a happy camp.
10. Western Bulldogs. Also not a happy camp. Players out of position. Bevo going nutso.
11. Geelong. Will start OK but fade as their legs tire and injuries hit.
12. Gold Coast. First year miracles don't happen but next year they might as this group melds.
13. Essendon. Still not fit enough to run out a season.
14. Hawthorn. Have improved their list and will have a better percentage. Progress.
15. Richmond. One big injury and they're on the skids.
16. Fremantle. Club implosion. Coach goes.
17. North Melbourne. Kids learning. Better losses.
18. West Coast. Nothing much changes.
Finals:
EF Losers: Port, Saints
QF Winners: Brisbane, Carlton
SF Winners: Pies, Sydney
PF Winners: ????
GF: Probably Brisbane but it's a very close comp.
The points difference from 2 to 13 is likely to be the smallest in years so % will be critical.

Apart from a couple games in September our undermanned defense worked reasonably well to see us bank so many wins. I think the additions of Ratugolea and Thatcher should free up allir allir to do his thing. Our weak point is our forward line.
We'll finish top 6 due to home ground advantage and then shit ourselves in the finals again against hardened midfields on-top of being coached by a dud with zero experienced assistants around him

 

[TeeJay Blue]

You were on a run playing a few banged up teams towards the end of the year. Absolutely no guarantee for that to happen again. When there's expectations you fall to s**t. Let's wait and see.

And Carlton weren't?

Isn't every team almost banged up towards the end of the season?

Didn't the blues' biggest play of the year involve two players who couldn't lift their arms above their head and another who was left almost dazed and short of breath by his opponent minutes before?

And there is absolutely no guarantee they fall to s**t.

No one knows. So thank you for stating the obvious.

 

[adammania9]

We almost made a GF with a hindered Charlie Curnow being little more than a decoy

Almost made is generous

 

[Cuzz09]

So people say losing curnow would obviously impact Carlton but when WCE fans mention injuries it's no excuse.

Try losing basically your whole squad for 2 seasons.



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[Joao]

So people say losing curnow would obviously impact Carlton but when WCE fans mention injuries it's no excuse.

Try losing basically your whole squad for 2 seasons.



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If they look good on track you can get 15-1 to play finals.

 

[Wolfgang West]

Incredible analysis here - If Carlton loses their best player who's also the best KPF in the comp they will struggle. Outstanding insights!

Richmond lost Rance the best key defender in the game and won the flag. Depth will come to the fore in a strong club but I suppose we are talking about 2 different clubs here when it gets down to it.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Richmond lost Rance the best key defender in the game and won the flag. Depth will come to the fore in a strong club but I suppose we are talking about 2 different clubs here when it gets down to it.

One was close to a dynasty, the other is competing for their first grand final appearance in 20years.

To compare the two is obsolete, just like saying Hawthorn lost Buddy... They still had the best forward line and team in the game hence the 3peat.

 

[Strapping Young Lad]

Carlton are widely tipped from pundits as top 4 side, hardly groundbreaking to suggest they could win a premiership

Sure does trigger a few though.

 

[adammania9]

Do you think it's only recently that Collingwood fans have become insufferable?

I remember them being particularly boisterous in 2020 and 2023 on the back of losing preliminary finals the year before.

2023 was justified. Pies fans knew of the improvement that would come. We just wanted to give a hand to the naysayers who thought the Pies would miss finals.

 

[PowerfulPies2023]

Henry overall is not a big loss. He was really only ticking over his engine. If he’d stayed, I could see that he’d have been dropped early in the new season.

Schultz is a loss, yes. Hopefully a player or two pops up to fill his role.

As for the drop off in 2023, maybe Dave Mundy was a far better footballer than even I give him credit for ?.

Mundy was a gun. Severely underrated footballer and he'd get his hands dirty as well as facilitate. He was a huge loss.

 

[BennyGFunk]

2023 was justified. Pies fans knew of the improvement that would come. We just wanted to give a hand to the naysayers who thought the Pies would miss finals.

Blues fans like myself could say the same thing. I thought pies would make top 4 last year, one bad year skewed peoples thinking.

 

[Scritchyscroony]

Bottom 6:
13: Fremantle
14: Essendon
15: Richmond
16: North
17: West Coast
18: Hawthorn

Middle 6:
7 : Geelong
8: Saints
9 : Melbourne
10 : Bulldogs
11: Adelaide
12: GC

Top 6:
1. Brisbane
2. Sydney
3. Port
4. Collingwood
5. GWS
6. carlton

 

[The_Big_Ship]

1 GWS
2 Melbourne
3 Carlton
4 Essendon
5 Adelaide
6 Collingwood
7 Geelong
8 Brisbane
—
9 Sydney
10 Port Adelaide
11 Bulldogs
12 Gold Coast
13 Hawthorn
14 Fremantle
15 St Kilda
16 West Coast
17 Richmond
18 North Melbourne

 

[DQ 4EVER]

Incredible analysis here - If Carlton loses their best player who's also the best KPF in the comp they will struggle. Outstanding insights!

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