USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris

[MarcMaverick]

Only a matter of time till they are voting for heads in jars like in Futurama

View attachment 2039772

I used to want Slurm as a kid.

Also

 

[MtGHawk]

It’s also not laughing incoherently and reading off a teleprompter

Why bring up someone laughing? Trump is a terrible orator and debator. The language of a 12 year old will not defeat Harris in a debate.

 

[Randomizor]

Why bring up someone laughing? Trump is a terrible orator and debator. The language of a 12 year old will not defeat Harris in a debate.

Harris’ campaign seems to be centered around the idea of bringing some joy back to America. It’s an amazing tactic because Trump can’t feel nor understand joy, so he has no idea how to attack it.

 

[Seeds]

It was nice to see Trump finally come out of his basement this week

To be fair he was shot by a random recently and was inches from dying. I probably would hide in a basement for a year if that happened to me.

 

[Seeds]

Then there's the prospect of a Walz and Vance debate. Vance won't develop personability and charisma overnight and Walz has both in spades.

Vance either commits to a debate and gets annihilated, or he doesn't and Walz can annihilate him for being a coward.

In any case, it spells serious trouble for the Republicans in the three rust belt states that will decide the election (Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania).

Debates arent about charisma. Thats what rallies are about. Debates are about policy, logical argument and gotcha moments. Walz apparently is not good at debates. He even told harris he was a bad debater when he applied for the vp job.

 

[Seeds]

For good measure, favourability polls:

Spoiler: Polls

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It's rapidly trending the right way for one of them, and it's not Trump. He has no momentum and it's going to take something remarkable given the bounce from a failed assassination attempt hasn't even been sustainable.

How are these looking among voters in the swing states?

 

[SSwans2011]

Debates arent about charisma.

It certainly helps in the current context. I'd say it's a strong part of what allowed Trump to walk over Biden in the first debate. Gotcha moments are important, but you need to be able to effectively execute on them.

How are these looking among voters in the swing states?

These are from FiveThirtyEight, not sure they keep track of that.

Where would you place her.

I'd say she's moderate. Maybe moderate left. What radically progressive positions do you think she holds that would suggest she is far left?

 

[happy_eagle]

How are these looking among voters in the swing states?

Arizona


Nevada


Wisconsin


Michigan

Pennsylvania

North Carolina

Georgia


Keen to see what the next round of polls say for Harris (the momentum has increased since Mid July when some of these were taken)

But based on these if you give Michigan and Wisconsin to Harris
Give North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona to Trump.


Its 251 Harris, 252 Trump.

Pennsylvania would then win it for Harris by 1, without needing Georgia.

 

[ferball]

Where would you place her.

Harris is centre right.

You're obviously higher than Mars.

 

[iBeng]

Trump when asked about Joy:

"I felt Joy once, she was a lovely model, didnt see it coming but you know, when youre rich and famous like me, you can do anything, even grab them by the-"

 

[Randomizor]

How are these looking among voters in the swing states?

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.

www.natesilver.net

 

[MtGHawk]

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model[/URLURL

Tight

Funny though the way Trump is behaving, you'd think he's miles behind. Still mystifying that a percentage of that country would vote for this guy..

 

[BigTacoBandit]

Where would you place her.

She'd be pretty similar to Julie Bishop.

 

[Dazzler9]

She'd be pretty similar to Julie Bishop.

Decent comparison, that.

 

[ferball]

Decent comparison, that.

I decided to check her positions out cos I really don't give a rats and hadn't taken much notice. She's probably more centre than centre right and left leaning by US standards. Tho these terms are kind of weird and self referential.

Miles from Julie Bishop. She is quite pro worker and its hard to see her ever defending a company in court while they tried to get out of paying compo to their workers who got asbestos related disease.

 

[spinynorman]

I decided to check her positions out cos I really don't give a rats and hadn't taken much notice. She's probably more centre than centre right and left leaning by US standards. Tho these terms are kind of weird and self referential.

Miles from Julie Bishop. She is quite pro worker and its hard to see her ever defending a company in court while they tried to get out of paying compo to their workers who got asbestos related disease.

I dunno, she's very tied to the gig economy. Her brother-in-law ran the successful California campaign that saw workers in that sector classified as contractors rather than employees. And while I wouldn't judge someone from their family, she works closely with them and her sister was campaign manager of her 2020 campaign (and the aforementioned brother-in-law has now taken leave to assist). She's very much been in the pocket of Silicon Valley in her career thus far - a significant part of why Biden chose her as his VP.

 

[big_e]

Until we see Harris or Walz in a difficult interview or debate this whole perception of them is just created in Democrats heads.

Harris has done zero besides recycling a speech over and over.

Anyway should be a fascinating race. We have pretty far left and right candidate’s.

Walz has participated in televised debates in two gubernatorial elections and won both elections.

Whereas the more JD Vance appears in the media, the worse his unfavourable ratings get.

Which is quite something, when you think about it.

 

[Satan]

Would Trump try this caper on again if reelected ?

Labor Secretary Acosta: DOL Did Not Survey Bosses' Grabbing Worker Tips

The Trump administration Labor Department did not survey the “quantitative” impact of letting bosses grab workers’ tips before yanking the Obama adminis-tration rule designed to prevent such wage theft, Labor Secretary Alex Acosta admitted. And he won’t reinstate the ban on tip theft, either, he...

m.usw.org

 

[ferball]

I dunno, she's very tied to the gig economy. Her brother-in-law ran the successful California campaign that saw workers in that sector classified as contractors rather than employees. And while I wouldn't judge someone from their family, she works closely with them and her sister was campaign manager of her 2020 campaign (and the aforementioned brother-in-law has now taken leave to assist). She's very much been in the pocket of Silicon Valley in her career thus far - a significant part of why Biden chose her as his VP.

Maybe. I honestly dunno enough to say. I can't see she'd get very far in US politics without having some business interests onside

Most of her social political positions are socially progressive but for me left v right wing is about money vs labour and who owns stuff, the state or private interests so I was surprised that she was more on the labour side of things and opposed some privatisations. She has pro union and pro worker positions which are a good thing and I didn't really expect that.

She's a politician so by definition untrustworthy imo. But I have to acknowledge I didn't expect to see some of the things she's advocated for and promoted and am pleasantly surprised by them.

 

[happy_eagle]

 

[BigTacoBandit]

I decided to check her positions out cos I really don't give a rats and hadn't taken much notice. She's probably more centre than centre right and left leaning by US standards. Tho these terms are kind of weird and self referential.

Miles from Julie Bishop. She is quite pro worker and its hard to see her ever defending a company in court while they tried to get out of paying compo to their workers who got asbestos related disease.

Bishop was a lawyer when she did that so just a hired gun.

Policy-wise, Bishop and Harris align on a lot of the key differences in US politics. The comparison was more to show the OP that Harris is a far left loony like they keep claiming.

 

[GreyCrow]

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.

www.natesilver.net

Thanks for that

The trend is very positive for the Democrats - the following highlights how far back they were and how much ground they have already gained

I do expect some settling but its positive to see - the final figure is the change since both polls were taken 1 week ago 2nd last column and 1 month ago last column

National	46.6% 46.6%	43.8% 43.8%	4.1% 4.1%	D+ 1	D+ 5.8
	Pennsylvania	45.9% 45.9%	44.0% 44.0%	3.6% 3.6%	D+ 0.9	D+ 5.4
	Wisconsin	47.3% 47.3%	43.7% 43.7%	3.5% 3.5%	D+ 2.1	D+ 5.4
	Michigan	46.3% 46.3%	42.5% 42.5%	4.8% 4.8%	D+ 1.2	D+ 8.3
	Georgia	45.2% 45.2%	45.9% 45.9%	3.1% 3.1%	D+ 0.5	D+ 10.3
	Arizona	45.0% 45.0%	44.2% 44.2%	3.6% 3.6%	D+ 2.9	D+ 11.2

 

[Saint]

Debates arent about charisma. Thats what rallies are about. Debates are about policy, logical argument and gotcha moments. Walz apparently is not good at debates. He even told harris he was a bad debater when he applied for the vp job.

"apparently"?

You can just watch him debate.

Minnesota Gubernatorial Debate

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (D) and Scott Jensen, his Republican challenger in the state's 2022 governor race, participated in a debate hosted by KTTC-TV in Rochester, Minnesota. During the debate, the candidates were asked questions on topics including the 2020 George Floyd protests, race...

www.c-span.org

Uses coherent sentences and everything. Seems very comfortable with policy. I guess he wasn't catchy enough. Too much being sensible.

 

[TheSunGod]

I think there's a genuine possibility that Trump is scared shitless after the assassination attempt (and understandably so), which means he has no interest in doing campaign events. He's barely done any since. He's leaving it all to JD Vance, which is an hilariously bad idea.

He’s also the laziest f****r out there and loves to blame others when things go wrong. He probably thinks it’s a genius move.

 

[TheSunGod]

He honestly sounds like he has had a stroke.

That might actually be his best option for avoiding accountability for all of his criminal actions.
They’d never jail a 78 year old ex-President who has had a stroke. It would be home confinement at worst.
He’d never admit to it though given his narcissistic ego.

 

[ferball]

Bishop was a lawyer when she did that so just a hired gun.

Policy-wise, Bishop and Harris align on a lot of the key differences in US politics. The comparison was more to show the OP that Harris is a far left loony like they keep claiming.

Bishop was hired by James Hardie to avoid paying compo to people who were dying from mesothelioma.

So based on that she does sound like the sort of person who'd take money to shoot innocent people.