USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris

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Continued in Part 2

 


Inflation down under 3 %

No doubt Trump will be congratulating Kamala :)


You don't understand, its everyone just excited about Trump returning as president which has caused this.
 

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We do need to see more polls, but they are trendng in the right direction at this stage, couldn't of asked for anything better from where the dems were when Biden dropped out.

I think it is close to line ball, but I would have the dems slightly ahead currently, but still a lot can happen.

For comparison how were the polls for biden in 2020 compared to hilary in 2016?

Also we aren't going to see a stupid campaign run where crucial battle ground aren't visited in the period just before the election like Hilary in 2016.
There's a series of technocratic responses to the failings of polling prior to the 2020 election which have been fixed, particularly with focus on swing states.

Of course, US polls are less accurate than Australian polls because turnout is so important. With 2 Trump campaigns, his turnout is now easier to estimate, Harris's will not be, especially with all the efforts of the GOP to deny electoral rights.

BUT. The polling shows Harris is ahead by a couple of points in crucial states such as Pennsylvania and Georgia.

Trump was smashing Biden in Georgia, now they're level.

Biden was just ahead in Pennsylvania, now Harris is up by 2.

Arizona, Trump was leading, now Harris has edged ahead.

North Carolina, Trump was up by 6, now down to 3.

Biden v Trump looked like it would go down to the wire. Harris v Trump looks like Trump will lose more ground than his last loss.

But there's months to go yet. There will be some swings, but it remains to be seen how long the current dip for Trump lasts until they do something about it.

My guess is that some unrealistic "tax cuts for everybody" policy is going to be released by the GOP.
 
Does it have to be? Its not as if Harris is coming from outside the tent .
Agree. VP Harris supports the party platform, in a manner that is totally consistent with messaging from the WH. As with the captain of the football club, and supervisor at work - you DO NOT have a personal view.

The GOP merely has a few motherhood statements, such as; seal the border, end inflation, prevent WWIII, unite our country by bringing it to new and record levels of success.

Trump has no Heathcare Reform Policy or Infrastructure Plan. It will not be a battle of policies unless the GOP operatives are held to account by journalists.

[Comprehensive policies are not written overnight, even if the consensual view of the WH best and brightest has changed in a material particular. Leadership 101 - you gain consensus/approval from the people you are representing, prior to entering into negotiations on their behalf.]
 
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I could if I wanted to argue from the POV of hunter/gatherer stage of human evolution but it’s not a hill I want to die on.

My point was, despite the awful language & implicit misogyny I actually agree culture is stronger in societies where multiple generations of families stay together and raise children.

I don’t think our individualistic, capitalist society is building a better world. In some ways yes but mental health problems are rising at a faster rate than ever & especially amongst younger people so we’re doing something wrong.
A less weird way of putting it might be something like:

"Isn't it great when grandparents get to spend lots of quality time with their grandkids?"
 
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A less weird way of putting it might be something like:

"Isn't it great when grandparents get to spend lots of quality time with their granddads?"
With the No Abortion laws grandad might only be 56 and grandchild 26 yr old Ray-Jean
 
A less weird way of putting it might be something like:

"Isn't it great when grandparents get to spend lots of quality time with their granddads?"
Five generations alive at once is fairly unusual. At least in the west where women aren’t expected to bear children until they’re adults.
 
It absolutely doesn’t. The cultists couldn’t give a tossbag about policies. They just follow trump.
Oh absolutely, on the GOP side policy finishes a distant last to vibes and culture war nonsense. Which makes Stokey & co. whining about Harris releasing policy all the funnier.

But I also wouldn't be surprised if its less of a factor among democrats this time round too.
 

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A less weird way of putting it might be something like:

"Isn't it great when grandparents get to spend lots of quality time with their granddads?"
"Isn't it great when menopausal females get to spend lots of quality time with their their offspring's offspring?"

Yeah you're right, that sounds a bit weird your way is better :tearsofjoy:
 
Five generations alive at once is fairly unusual. At least in the west where women aren’t expected to bear children until they’re adults.
My family has a 5 generation alive link

All born after 20 except my sister who was 18 at first child
 
A less weird way of putting it might be something like:

"Isn't it great when grandparents get to spend lots of quality time with their granddads?"

Except that misses the point that was being made. That here in the West where we’ve been conditioned by capitalism (& particularly individualism rather than collective) that everyone should prioritize career & earnings over raising children.

Vance was surprised that his mother in law who is an academic would take a year sabbatical to help her daughter with the baby.

He seemed to be making a point, albeit in a very poor way that perhaps that’s a better way to do things culturally v what is the norm here.

I was saying only that I agree with that in principle.

I wasn’t supporting Vance. I wasn’t endorsing the language used. I wasn’t even commenting on the broader sociopolitical context of any of it. Just that I agree to some extent with what he was saying

I can loathe the man’s politics and what he stands for but I reserve the right to contest ideas on their merit.
 
Except that misses the point that was being made. That here in the West where we’ve been conditioned by capitalism (& particularly individualism rather than collective) that everyone should prioritize career & earnings over raising children.

Vance was surprised that his mother in law who is an academic would take a year sabbatical to help her daughter with the baby.

He seemed to be making a point, albeit in a very poor way that perhaps that’s a better way to do things culturally v what is the norm here.
There was a change about the late 80s when interest rates spiked and families required 2 incomes . Some managed and some didnt

I do know that the Greek and Italian population ( my experience) were loath to outsource babysitting to strangers and YiaYia or Nonna would be there after school.

And even those cultures are slowly trending towards day care
 
There was a change about the late 80s when interest rates spiked and families required 2 incomes . Some managed and some didnt

I do know that the Greek and Italian population ( my experience) were loath to outsource babysitting to strangers and YiaYia or Nonna would be there after school.

And even those cultures are slowly trending towards day care
In one of his books George Megalogenis said when he was growing up if you were Greek with a mortgage it was for a second house.
 
In one of his books George Megalogenis said when he was growing up if you were Greek with a mortgage it was for a second house.
Go to Greece and you find they can't even finish one house..

The Modern-Greek Maison Domino
 
Except that misses the point that was being made. That here in the West where we’ve been conditioned by capitalism (& particularly individualism rather than collective) that everyone should prioritize career & earnings over raising children.

Vance was surprised that his mother in law who is an academic would take a year sabbatical to help her daughter with the baby.

He seemed to be making a point, albeit in a very poor way that perhaps that’s a better way to do things culturally v what is the norm here.

I was saying only that I agree with that in principle.

I wasn’t supporting Vance. I wasn’t endorsing the language used. I wasn’t even commenting on the broader sociopolitical context of any of it. Just that I agree to some extent with what he was saying

I can loathe the man’s politics and what he stands for but I reserve the right to contest ideas on their merit.


When this conversation leads to changing working culture so that fathers (and indeed grandfathers) are equally taking time away from work to support primary caregiving to children... then I'll believe it's not just an excuse for misogyny and pushing women back out of the workforce where these people don't want them.
 
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Except that misses the point that was being made. That here in the West where we’ve been conditioned by capitalism (& particularly individualism rather than collective) that everyone should prioritize career & earnings over raising children.

Vance was surprised that his mother in law who is an academic would take a year sabbatical to help her daughter with the baby.

He seemed to be making a point, albeit in a very poor way that perhaps that’s a better way to do things culturally v what is the norm here.

I was saying only that I agree with that in principle.

I wasn’t supporting Vance. I wasn’t endorsing the language used. I wasn’t even commenting on the broader sociopolitical context of any of it. Just that I agree to some extent with what he was saying

I can loathe the man’s politics and what he stands for but I reserve the right to contest ideas on their merit.
I wasn't arguing with you at all.
Simply saying 'post menopausal female' is a weird way of saying 'Grandma'
 
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