USA 2024 US Presidential Election: Trump vs Harris

[Chief]

 

[Maggie5]

Yep, fair enough. That's what I'd have to. I'm just giving PA, NC and GA to Trump, and NV to Harris.

I think one factor the polls aren't taking into account are the number of new enrollments, are in the 100,000's since Harris took over.

 

[GreyCrow]

I think one factor the polls aren't taking into account are the number of new enrollments, are in the 100,000's since Harris took over.

Again it depends where and how big a bloc

While I disagree with how pj allocated his numbers I cant fault them

( I think different states fall different ways)

 

[E Shed]

It’s getting a bit like the draft board with people doing phantom drafts as if they have insider knowledge.

 

[Maggie5]

Again it depends where and how big a bloc

My understanding is that they were in the 50/50 states like GA and PA.

Of course they still have to vote.

While I disagree with how pj allocated his numbers I cant fault them

( I think different states fall different ways)

Think that states like Florida/Texas are way off, no chance of turning blue for at least a decade.

 

[campbell]

My understanding is that they were in the 50/50 states like GA and PA.

Of course they still have to vote.



Think that states like Florida/Texas are way off, no chance of turning blue for at least a decade.

yet, I think both are gettable. Due to abortion and new younger enrolments.

The cat ladies are mobilised, as are the veterans......

 

[pjcrows]

yet, I think both are gettable. Due to abortion and new younger enrolments.

The cat ladies are mobilised, as are the veterans......

So you're seriously suggesting Texas and Florida can be won by Harris? It wasn't just a throwaway?

Yet apparently me saying Trump will squeeze out a close win is somehow crazy

 

[blackshadow]

He is waiting on FK to decide

F Knuckle?

 

[campbell]

So you're seriously suggesting Texas and Florida can be won by Harris? It wasn't just a throwaway?

Yet apparently me saying Trump will squeeze out a close win is somehow crazy

Indeed I am.

Have you listened to your stable genius lately?

 

[pjcrows]

Indeed I am.

Have you listened to your stable genius lately?

My stable genius?

 

[Maggie5]

So you're seriously suggesting Texas and Florida can be won by Harris? It wasn't just a throwaway?

Yet apparently me saying Trump will squeeze out a close win is somehow crazy

Maybe your years of being anti Dems and Biden clouds your posts sometimes.

 

[Gough]

Worth noting that aside from it being my baby brother's fiftieth tomorrow it will also be half a century since Ford pardoned Nixon.

 

[FireKrakouer]

My prediction is that there will be an event in the last 2-3 weeks before the election that has a notable impact on the result. For example, either side might have a significant item of oppositional research that they drop at the last minute... a recorded scandal or whatever. Or perhaps there's another assassination attempt or terror attack or mass shooting (I genuinely hope not).

I say this because in the space of one week we had the Biden/Trump debate AND the Trump assassination attempt which swung the predictions 180 and had Trump looking like an unstoppable force. Since then the Dems correctly removed Biden and did a clean and drama-free transition to Kamala as candidate and polls reversed back. My point being, it doesn't take a lot for things to change quickly because voters have a short memory and the media have a fast turnover cycle.

 

[Maggie5]

It’s getting a bit like the draft board with people doing phantom drafts as if they have insider knowledge.

No insider knowledge, purely guess work on my part and it is fun to see how close I can get.

 

[pjcrows]

My prediction is that there will be an event in the last 2-3 weeks before the election that has a notable impact on the result. For example, either side might have a significant item of oppositional research that they drop at the last minute... a recorded scandal or whatever. Or perhaps there's another assassination attempt or terror attack or mass shooting (I genuinely hope not).

I say this because in the space of one week we had the Biden/Trump debate AND the Trump assassination attempt which swung the predictions 180 and had Trump looking like an unstoppable force. Since then the Dems correctly removed Biden and did a clean and drama-free transition to Kamala as candidate and polls reversed back. My point being, it doesn't take a lot for things to change quickly because voters have a short memory and the media have a fast turnover cycle.

Agreed.

Keep an eye on the Middle East.

 

[jatz14]

Only time I have put money on politics I won ($100) with Biden and correct electoral votes received last election.

Have started doing the map, but have a few in question.
Their map with those likely or leaning

View attachment 2103958
I have Dems up to 252 with some I am not sure of yet. Given them Arizona and the Blue wall except PA.

View attachment 2103960

Its been a fairly consistent theme this year for dems to outperform compared to polling. I suspect because Trump has maintained his hard core base, that cannot wait to tell pollsters how much they want to vote for Trump, but the people most likely to hang up on pollsters, because they are not as engaged, are more likely to be put off by Trump.

As they say, if America had compulsory voting, Dems would romp it in. If they have 70% turnout Dems have a closer win, if they have 50% turnout, Republicans win.

 

[jatz14]

I disagree. Dick Cheney is a war criminal, and his actions during the Bush years are extremely disliked by a majority of independents who will decide the election.

Harris getting endorsements from the ilk of Cheney, McCain family, other establishment Republican Never Trumpers is not a net positive.

What do you think most of Trumps cabinet, his Vice president, Republican ex presidents and senior figures like Cheney, publicly saying they refused to endorse Trump because he wasnt fit for public service means?

I dont mean, what affect does it have on the election, or how will voters see it, I mean, what does it say to you, about who
Trump is as a person and a leader?

 

[carltonchelsea]

I'm looking at data. What are you looking at?

You’re slurping up cognitive bias as fact ya drongo!

 

[carltonchelsea]

No, a combination of all the polling, looked at in a balanced way, as well as historical information that is common knowledge.

Where do you get your information from? What's your election prediction?

You gave me two polling orgs.
Conveniently they both agreed with your wager on turnip ****face!
That’s amazing how that occurred!
Fancy that?

 

[GreyCrow]

Combined with historical data suggesting a Democrat needs to lead the popular vote by +3.5 at a minimum to win?

Interesting side note to this

538 currently has Harris at 3.1% but this graphic from Nate Silver is also interesting - using your model



Suggests 2-3% is enough for 271

Ironically the figure I quoted a few days ago

(not saying either is accurate but interesting all the same)

 

[pjcrows]

What do you think most of Trumps cabinet, his Vice president, Republican ex presidents and senior figures like Cheney, publicly saying they refused to endorse Trump because he wasnt fit for public service means?

I dont mean, what affect does it have on the election, or how will voters see it, I mean, what does it say to you, about who
Trump is as a person and a leader?

What do I think? Trump is nuts. We already know that.

 

[pjcrows]

You gave me two polling orgs.
Conveniently they both agreed with your wager on turnip ****face!
That’s amazing how that occurred!
Fancy that?

Great analysis again

They aren't polling organisations. They report the range of polling.

What's your prediction? Or are you going to ignore that?

 

[pjcrows]

Interesting side note to this

538 currently has Harris at 3.1% but this graphic from Nate Silver is also interesting - using your model

View attachment 2104680

Suggests 2-3% is enough for 271

Ironically the figure I quoted a few days ago

(not saying either is accurate but interesting all the same)

Yep, Harris' margin is currently sitting on the cusp.

 

[carltonchelsea]

Great analysis again

They aren't polling organisations. They report the range of polling.

What's your prediction? Or are you going to ignore that?

What’s my prediction?
Or am I going to ignore that?
I think you should keep your money in your damned pocket mate!

 

[pjcrows]

What’s my prediction?
Or am I going to ignore that?
I think you should keep your money in your damned pocket mate!

Great insight. Thanks

 

[campbell]

I think, that when, the Election interference evidence is dropped in a few weeks, things will drastically change.

Joe public, will see, exactly, what that grand jury saw. They will understand why, he was indicted.

Visual works,people actually see what he did.

Then , they see him, rant and rave incoherently.

I have faith, that, people will actually vote this cycle.

That is what Trump doesnt want.