2025 AFL Early Preview - which teams improve? Which teams drop?

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austinnn

austinnn

Veteran GOP
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Nov 7, 2012
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Tsk! The 2024 season isn't even over, what is the everlovin' point of a preview before trades and drafts. The Eagles haven't even got a coach yet!

The answer is I'm boooooooored.

Being good is one thing, but it doesn't amount to much if everyone else is better. So I thought I'd ask you which teams you think will be better or worse next year, with the understanding that no one can know much at this early stage.
 
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I thought I'd start with the 12 clubs already done for the year, in current order.

Richmond: their injuries couldn't possibly be as bad this year, but it's over for the Tigers for a while. They got their dynasty and glory so they dont even care and rightly so. Draft day '24 the best day for them for the next 5 years. Certain spooner.

North: building a list of quality but suspect culture imo. Clarko getting found out and worn down. Could rise up a couple of spots at best.

WC: got a feeling they could do a bit better in '25. Sometimes it just takes one player to kick-start a movement and Reid is the man(child). 10th-15th

Adelaide: Something ain't right with the Crows. Nicks should have been sacked by now surely? Walker still playing? Not many elites there. Feels like bottom 3 to me, and I had them playing finals this year!

Melbourne: oh God, it's so over. The fish rotting from head to tail describes the Dees rn. Even if they sack Oliver and Goody, the cultural scars will take years to recover from, think Crows-level. 17th, nothing surer.

GC: another club I foolishly predicted would make finals in '24. Not this time! Star power but no identity. Dimma will churn through the leaders until he finds the guys that play his way every time. Take at least another year imo. Bottom 5.

St Kilda: pass for now

Essendon: convince me that there is any promise at all coming through at Bomberland. I cannot see it. The list, coach, and culture are all shocking and set to stay that way. Good. Bottom 4.

Freo: not sure. Could be better, or the same. Don't think worse is likely, but always flakey outside the Lyon era. 6th-10th

Collingwood: is it over already? Murphy retired, Pendlebury and Sidebottom soon enough. Got some stars still. Has Moore been found out? Has Fly? No idea if they have a final push in them. 4th-12th

Carlton: tempting to write them off but if they get Houston and a better injury run, they might be OK, despite their clueless coach. Don't have enough quality for good finals though. 7th-11th

WB: Something smells in Bevo's bunker, but he's got one of the best lists in the league and is forging an us against the world steel about his boys. Volatile and unpredictable, surely too much quality to drop too far, even with outgoings. 2nd-10th
 
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The obvious club to bottom out are Melbourne they will fall completely off a cliff.

Richmond, North, WCE and Adelaide will continue to struggle.

St Kilda, Essendon and Collingwood have some big list holes. Could go either way, injury management will be important.

GCS could improve if they can learn how to win away from home.

Freo should be the big improvers - adding Bolton to their midfield/forward rotation will be huge. If Longmuir can address his game plan Freo could really challenge next year.

Carlton considering the injuries they dealt with throughout the year did a fantastic job just playing finals. If they can get a better run there is no reason they cant go deep into the finals.

Hawthorn will be the dominant side in 2025, adding Barrass and Battle to their defence, Lewis returning will see them really take off.

Sydney, Geelong, GWS and Brisbane will be there abouts again.

WB and Port fortunes will depend on whether their clubs have the balls to off load their current coaches. The smartest move Beveridge or Hinkley could do would be put in the for the WCE job.
 
I had the Crows top 4 this year and Geelong in the bottom 4 with Richmond, North and Hawthorn so thi'll be good!

I'll go with 2 teams dropping out of the 8 and 2 teams jumping in, 1 of those teams making top 4.

Falling out:

Port Adelaide - They finished 2nd but it's the most unconvincing 2nd place you've ever seen. I'm expecting Hinkley to walk away and the Power to take 2025 as a mulligan/reset year under Josh Carr.

Carlton - They're cooked. They will trade the farm for Houston, offload their small forwards, and pray that Cripps and Curnow can carry them again. Voss being found out as a pretty poor coach TBH. Wasting this group after blowing up a Lions team that was also chock full of talent.

Jumping in:

Adelaide - I'll give them another shot. They have an insane forward set up and Thilthorpe looks set to explode as that ruck/forward option. If Rankine gets fit and Rachele buys in they should be scoring plenty more than most teams.

Fremantle - This is the team I'm picking to jump into the top 4. Bolton is hit and miss but he's a gamebreaker. Another preseason for Treacey and Amiss to work together. The fitness of Pearce is their big handicap but if he plays most games I think they'll get there.
 
austinnn said:
I forgot about Freo getting Bolton, I see them making the 8, but still not dominating. Carlton should drop a few places on the ladder, I think it's over for that group.
Click to expand...

Fremantle have the list to win a flag IMO, they are just really poorly coached. Longmuir has them playing the chip mark crabbing possession style game when they have the players & speed to really take the game on ala Collingwood 2023. If he ever wakes up to himself and backs his list they will go a long way. I grade Longmuir as the biggest under achieving coach in the competition this year.
 
Pies Freo and Dogs hardest to get a read on imo.

Pies VFL winning only 4 games this season indicates any quality coming through might need a bit more time. The Pies did really well in recent years, but what role did momentum and luck play in their success? A few one point wins in their recent history. They've got McStay to come back but will he be enough?

I think they'll be similar to this year or worse, I can't see them being much better for a whole season, though scraping into finals seems possible.

We've discussed Freo already. Great list, flakey performance and suspect coaching. Could be anything if it clicks but I can't see it. Similar to this season or a bit better.

Bulldogs might have the best list the comp and Bevo has something, once his detractors have been weeded out and a few of their youngsters have another year of experience, I see them doing real damage to finals, but... they just seem so fragile, like it could all collapse at any moment. More likely to be what Port Adelaide have been this year. If Bevo gets seduced by the Eagles or Power, then expect the Dogs to drop, otherwise pencil them in to get to the second last week of September.
 
Next to look at are the two teams who just exited finals, Hawthorn and GWS. Hawks first.

Hawthorn surprised most of us this year, they've been so hopeless the last few years, but they are doing really well with their list and Mitchell seems to be the type of young coach clubs dream of: smart, courageous and tuned into the youth. He's a stepping stone from their club legacy & tradition to their future.

But they've had the benefit of being the hunter and a surprise package this year and had a great injury run. They'll be lucky for the latter to reoccur and will be one of the first teams opposition will plan for. I still see them as a better prospect throughout next season, but will be bashed by a few teams and are still immature in more ways than one. Won't go on a long run, rather be inconsistent without any of the weaknesses of past years. Similar finish to this year, but if things go bad might just miss out on finals.
 
austinnn said:
Next to look at are the two teams who just exited finals, Hawthorn and GWS. Hawks first.

Hawthorn surprised most of us this year, they've been so hopeless the last few years, but they are doing really well with their list and Mitchell seems to be the type of young coach clubs dream of: smart, courageous and tuned into the youth. He's a stepping stone from their club legacy & tradition to their future.

But they've had the benefit of being the hunter and a surprise package this year and had a great injury run. They'll be lucky for the latter to reoccur and will be one of the first teams opposition will plan for. I still see them as a better prospect throughout next season, but will be bashed by a few teams and are still immature in more ways than one. Won't go on a long run, rather be inconsistent without any of the weaknesses of past years. Similar finish to this year, but if things go bad might just miss out on finals.
Click to expand...
Hawthorn had a very very opportune season this year and repeating that next year will be much harder with a more difficult fixture.

Their early year losses were all against good teams and their only win in the first 7 rounds was against North. The remainder of the year is then a lot of wins down in Tasmania where they have a genuine home ground advantage and they also managed to hit a lot of opposition in form slumps at the right times.

They are still going to be genuinely contending for that middle 6 and finals but the calls of them being premiership contenders is incredibly far off the mark honestly. Battle and Barrass will help alot but it reminds me of us coming into 2021, adding both Crouch and Higgins thinking they would boost us into top 4 and it just didnt happen. So much else needs to go right for you to contend.
 
GWS horrible finals all up, out in straight sets with two comebacks from both grand finalists, it's not good for the mentality. Doubts creep in. As usual with the Oranje, there will be a fair few list changes, but there is plenty of talent there - too much to sink too low without an injury crisis. Not entirely convinced about Kingsley though so I will pick them to drop out of finals next year and finish just below, 9th-11th.

Port Adelaide are teetering. Will they sack Ken? Will he be poached by the Eagles? Would heir apparent Carr change much? The way the Power play is so familiar, scrappy and wildly inconsistent. Their forward line is in major need of repair and im not sure if Lucoscious fixes everything. They are set to lose a couple of useful players in Houston and Soldo. Too much being asked of too few stars. I forsee a drop out of the 8 for PA too, potentially all the way down to 14th, although if there is a coaching revamp they may just keep a fingernail in finals for at least the first week.

Geelong continue to defy gravity, as well as the hopes of footy fans sick of seeing them at the top. Bailey Sniff will inject some pazazz into their flailing midfield, and Dempsey is set to break out. What do they do about their ruck situation? Will they try to swipe Ivan Soldo from Port, or offer a literal farm to a young ruckman from the depths of another list? They had some pretty ordinary moments this year, the paint is peeling in places. Whatever they do, I'm sure it will be fine a little while longer. Chris Scott seems to still have fire in his belly to go around again, and the whole organisation is watertight. They'll play finals and as the famous flamingo once said, could finish any position, but I'm picking a final grand final before Scott decides to hand over and start to enjoy his life.
 
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austinnn said:
GWS horrible finals all up, out in straight sets with two comebacks from both grand finalists, it's not good for the mentality. Doubts creep in. As usual with the Oranje, there will be a fair few list changes, but there is plenty of talent there - too much to sink too low without an injury crisis. Not entirely convinced about Kingsley though so I will pick them to drop out of finals next year and finish just below, 9th-11th.

Port Adelaide are teetering. Will they sack Ken? Will he be poached by the Eagles? Would heir apparent Carr change much? The way the Power play is so familiar, scrappy and wildly inconsistent. Their forward line is in major need of repair and im not sure if Lucoscious fixes everything. They are set to lose a couple of useful players in Houston and Soldo. Too much being asked of too few stars. I forsee a drop out of the 8 for PA too, potentially all the way down to 14th, although if there is a coaching revamp they may just keep a fingernail in finals for at least the first week.

Geelong continue to defy gravity, as well as the hopes of footy fans sick of seeing them at the top. Bailey Sniff will inject some pazazz into their flailing midfield, and Dempsey is set to break out. What do they do about their ruck situation? Will they try to swipe Ivan Soldo from Port, or offer a literal farm to a young ruckman from the depths of another list? Thet had some oretty ordinary moments this year, the paint is peeling in places. Whatever they do, I'm sure it will be fine a littld while longer. Chris Scott seems to still have fire in his belly to go around again, and the whole organisation is watertight. They'll play finals and as the famous flamingo once said, could finish any position, but I'm picking a final grand final before Scott decides to hand over and start to enjoy his life.
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They remind me a bit of the 09,10 Saints sides. Battle hardened warriors but mentally scarred.
Some of them will need a change.
 

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I’m going with Freo and Collingwood into the 8 with Port and most likely Bulldogs going out. I think the Hinkley contract situation will ruin Port’s season and I’m sure Bevo will find a way to stuff up the Bulldogs year.

The cliff will come for Melbourne and Petracca will want out again. They give us a run for the most boring team in the league but the difference with them is they actually have some serious weapons that Goodwin is wasting.

I see us hovering around where we are until we fix the midfield. Macrae will help for a couple of years but we badly need a pick right after ours and use them on mids.
 
CursingFijian said:
I think Fremantle depending on their trade period will make the 8 along with the Saints and at the expense of Carlton and the Hawks.
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I'd agree with that. Bolton changes everything for them, they'd have to be nuts not to do all they can to get him. First big trade of the period I reckon.
 
With Jack McCrae coming into our midfield, and Elwood Pecket. how many mids will we need in the draft. Maybe we could swap picks 7 and 8 for two or three and get one of the very best mids.
 
borderbarry said:
With Jack McCrae coming into our midfield, and Elwood Pecket. how many mids will we need in the draft. Maybe we could swap picks 7 and 8 for two or three and get one of the very best mids.
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We need all the mids. We’ve spent more than a decade doing basically nothing because we don’t have any.
 
West Coast and Richmond are going to be bottom 2. Nearly every other side has some claim on a top 8 spot.


Sides in premiership window-

Brisbane- probably back up next year. Brilliant list and a style that stacks up in finals.
Carlton- good for a laugh but with a good injury run are top 4.
Fremantle- should have made it and with a developing list have potential to go better.
Dogs-have the list but disappointing motivation. Kids more mature and they should be better.
GWS- losing players again but their best 22 is excellent.
Sydney- are young but potential for a GF beat up hang over.

Next tier pushing to make the 8-

St Kilda- should be better with a good draw and injury luck
Essendon- Not a great end to the season but showed improvement.
Geelong- always there about but despite top 4 probably lucky to make it as far as they did.
Port- Always there about but unsettled and losing a few to replace a few. Could be top 4, could fall outside.
Adelaide- another that had moments of looking on the way up but fell over.
Gold Coast - surely this is the year they push top 4....maybe not but they should play finals. I think.
Pies- still good but getting older.
Melbourne- Who knows what they can do it things settle down. The list is still there but everything else stinks.
North will break out at some point. Probably a year too early but given a good run who knows. They will have a rapid development burst at some point and will stretch a few sides more regularly regardless.

The shit sides that are making up numbers-

West Coast- young and average list. Probably win games at home but not enough to push up.
Richmond- going full bottom out rebuild. Probably lucky to win 4 games next year unless a miracle happens.

Obviously with 16 sides to go into 8 spots it really is going to come down to draw, depth, injury, improvement etc.

Sides likely to drop down are probably Sydney, Geelong, Pies etc. Melbourne and Port question marks too.
 
gringo2011 said:
West Coast and Richmond are going to be bottom 2. Nearly every other side has some claim on a top 8 spot.


Sides in premiership window-

Brisbane- probably back up next year. Brilliant list and a style that stacks up in finals.
Carlton- good for a laugh but with a good injury run are top 4.
Fremantle- should have made it and with a developing list have potential to go better.
Dogs-have the list but disappointing motivation. Kids more mature and they should be better.
GWS- losing players again but their best 22 is excellent.
Sydney- are young but potential for a GF beat up hang over.

Next tier pushing to make the 8-

St Kilda- should be better with a good draw and injury luck
Essendon- Not a great end to the season but showed improvement.
Geelong- always there about but despite top 4 probably lucky to make it as far as they did.
Port- Always there about but unsettled and losing a few to replace a few. Could be top 4, could fall outside.
Adelaide- another that had moments of looking on the way up but fell over.
Gold Coast - surely this is the year they push top 4....maybe not but they should play finals. I think.
Pies- still good but getting older.
Melbourne- Who knows what they can do it things settle down. The list is still there but everything else stinks.
North will break out at some point. Probably a year too early but given a good run who knows. They will have a rapid development burst at some point and will stretch a few sides more regularly regardless.

The shit sides that are making up numbers-

West Coast- young and average list. Probably win games at home but not enough to push up.
Richmond- going full bottom out rebuild. Probably lucky to win 4 games next year unless a miracle happens.

Obviously with 16 sides to go into 8 spots it really is going to come down to draw, depth, injury, improvement etc.

Sides likely to drop down are probably Sydney, Geelong, Pies etc. Melbourne and Port question marks too.
Click to expand...
North getting a few senior recruits in should help them too. Parker, Darling, maybe Houston.
 
Sydney, been the bridesmaid a few too many times now, got shown up on their big day. Got to leave marks I think. Rumours of Chad wanting to go home and we saw Heeney's character after the GF: not convinced he's got what it takes. The system is sound, and they have some guns in the midfield but they are weak at both ends and in the ruck, it will take a while to overcome that and their draft hand is poor. I wouldn't be surprised to see Horse ride off into the sunset - but I said that last year!

Finals? Maybe, can't ever count them out. But won't be anywhere near the top.

Brisbane have lost and won a GF in the space of two years, have a squad littered with stars and over performing gops, overcame serious personal issues and bad form to storm home. Here have a free pick one from the draft and another gun academy player. My only question is how do they replace Joe Daniher if he steps away? They've been a bit shit between the sticks last two years and still made the GF, only the strongest teams would deny them top 4 next year and the rest is up to them. Will they have the hunger? Will they have the consistency? Unsure, but reasonably confident.
 
TL DR?

2025 finishing positions, post finals

1 Bulldogs
2 Cats
3 Lions
4 Dockers
5 Giants
6 Saints
7 Hawks
8 Swans
-----------------
9 Magpies
10 Blues
11 Suns
12 Power
13 Eagles
14 Kangaroos
15 Crows
16 Bombers
17 Demons
18 Tigers
 

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2025 AFL Early Preview - which teams improve? Which teams drop?

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