AFL 2025 - AFL ROUND 1

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[NYRB]

Dabble Pick Em

Geelong v Freo

Jeremy Sharp Over 17.5 Disposals
Bailey Smith Under 23.5 Disposals
Serong Over 97.5 Fantasy Points

Odds: 6.50 (1u)

No Geelong player achieved more than 23 disposals in last years fixture against Freo. B Smith only cleared this line 1/7 times against Freo in his career. The total number of times Geelong players have cleared 24+ disposals in the past 4 games against Freo - has happened only 4 times. (2 players in 2023 R20 and 2 players in 2022 ). I am seeing a line of 24.5 but quite happy to go as low as 23.5 here.

Sharp to clear this line for me. Dockers to play their possession style footy away from home. Picked up 28 last year against Geelong.

Serong To clear this line for Fantasy- has cleared in his last 3 games against Geelong. I also think the Supercoach Line of 107.5 is a good alternate play if you fancy that as well, which he has also covered in his last 3. Think the Dockers midfield is better than Cats midfield. Dockers have beaten Cats cumulatively as a team in Supercoach scoring and Fantasy scoring in the past 4 matches. And I dont think play at Kardinia Park should be a fear factor for Freo, they have won their past 2 matches down there. The major sportsbooks are offering odds on for Serong to Clear 100+ Fantasy, so happy to take 97.5 as a Pick Em.

Also small little degen: Sharp O 17.5 Disposals, Bailey Smith Under 23.5 Disposals, Serong O 97.5 Fantasy, Switkowski AGS

Odds: 13.32 (0.25u)

Switkowski has kicked at least a goal in 3 of his past 4 against Geelong. He priced at 1.88 to kick a goal today at SB.

And a play on Jeremy Sharp Fantasy Lines Ladder-all at BetRight:
80+ Fantasy $1.85 (1.5u)
90+ Fantasy $2.85 (0.50u)
100+ Fantasy $4.50 (0.50u)
110+ Fantasy $8.00 (0.25u)

Sharp scored 112 Fantasy last season in a losing team. With no Young, I sense Dockers who are one of the better teams at retaining possession continue on their trend of scoring better in Fantasy over Geelong.

And Most Disposals Group A - I like Luke Ryan at $12.50 on Sportsbet . Has been leading disposal gettor 1 time in past 4 games and came within a disposal of equaling in another game. Im going to stick to the numbers and look to back Freo players for disposals and fading Geelong players for disposals.

View attachment 2250083

Most Disposal Group B- 1u stake on Sharp at 9 at TAB, 0.5u stake on O'Driscoll at 11s. Quite like this group as you have 2 rucks in there. I think a number like 21-23 could very clinch this group. A little bit of insurance on O'Driscoll.

View attachment 2250084

-5.5u down for the tips.

Geelong too good.

 

[the_big_sav]

Yeah but they were moving away from the cheap Ryan stats towards the end of the year last year, I’m just saying it’s probably the new normal and no tag etc

18, 1 more would have counted as a win on tab

 

[the_big_sav]

It's down to Close to let me down now, had 13 at 3qt, needs 2 the campaigner

Where's Anthony Hudson? 15, 15!!!!!!!

 

[Rank]

Smith 20 d
Z Guthrie 15 d
Close 15 d
Close 1
Neale 1
O Henry 1 @8.25 SB free hit

I noticed in my original post I had Neale twice for 1, it was O Henry 1

Of course Close would get his 15 in the last minute after cashing out for 75% of the dividend. But I'll take it. Woulda been sickening to just miss as I've done in every match previous

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Darcy Fort for me today, should play predominantly forward and always seems to have a couple shots when he does play

1 - $2.22
2 - $7.50
3 - $26

Good start

 

[Rank]

Berry 20 d
Campbell 15 d
Lohman 15 d @12.50 SB free hit

Stake refunded with Lowman subbed out


Scott 20 d
Simpkin 20 d
LDU 25 d
West 1 g
Curtis 1 g
Larkey 2 g @8 SB free hit

 

[Rank]

Reckon Norf can win tonight

Coll W
Norf W
Adelaide -18.5
Suns W @14.83 PB bet return if 1 fails

 

[the_big_sav]

Come on raynor

 

[NYRB]

Live in-play betting

Taken the Swans to win at $5.40 in-play down 54-70 against Brisbane late in the 3rd quarter for a bit of interest as I think Brisbane may tire playing with 1 less player for most of the game.

 

[Rank]

McStay 2 g
Perryman 20 d
Lipinski 20 d
Drew 15 d @9.50 SB free hit

 

[NYRB]

Taken the Swans to win at $5.40 in-play down 54-70 a

Swans choke in that last minute when the ball was in their forward line.

 

[Atavistic]

Georgiades 2 into Hill 2 @ 3.75 (SB free hit)

Have to do some sensible ones occasionally.

 

[NYRB]

SGM

Collingwood -7.5 handicap and Over 165.5 points @ 3.25 (3u)

 

[Jonsyd1]

Larkey 2, Darling, Curtis, West
Elliott, Schultz, Byrne-Jones, JHF
$35

 

[the_big_sav]

Any particular reason why you think this will be a breakout year for Curtis?

Has he been training the house down?

Did Clarko indicate he'd spend more time playing as the deepest forward?

Or is it just a hunch kind of thing?

I've lost a lot of money betting on Curtis over the past couple years, because I thought he was 'due'.

In 59 games he has kicked 3+ on six occasions, and two of those were against a hapless West Coast.

Sadly I think he will go down as one of those coulda woulda shoulda types.

I hope I'm wrong.

Reid like patch coming up

 

[the_big_sav]

Collingwood by 12 goals, hill 0. Get out of it

 

[Rank]

Bang Bang Curtis. Leave Larkey on the bench

 

[Rank]

Chucked a bet365 bonus bet on @16.87
Curtis 2
Thilthorpe 3

Now come on big Filthy

 

[Rank]

Bang Bang Bang Curtis

 

[the_big_sav]

In

Bang Bang Bang Curtis

Never in doubt

 

[the_big_sav]

Bang Bang Bang Curtis

Odds won't be that long rest of year. Stick with 2 Max for him

 

[Rank]

Odds won't be that long rest of year. Stick with 2 Max for him

Only went 2 today @3.75 in a multi but he'll still be worth backing for 3s and 4s. Can be a target and a crumber. Should have kicked bags last year

 

[NYRB]

SGM

Collingwood -7.5 handicap and Over 165.5 points @ 3.25 (3u)

This comes through fairly comfortably.

+6.75u up for the match.

 

[NYRB]

Getting this in early for tomorrows Pick Em, 3 game slate.


Matt Rowell Over 95.5 AFL Fantasy Points v West Coast. Loves playing West Coast. 14 Brownlow Votes from 7 games. Was expecting the line to be higher, somewhere in the triple figures . Very happy to get mid 90s on a Fantasy line for Rowell.

Steve May Under 6.5 Marks. Love that I have an option to take the unders on marks. Heavy rain means the unders on the mark is a system play. Forecast says there will be rain pre-game and during the game.

Darcy Fogarty Over 1.5 Goals- Seeing around $1.85-$1.92 on Sportsbooks. I think this game will be high scoring with plenty of goals both ways. Watched Brisbane v Adelaide pre-season, Fog looked fairly ordinary that day but still kicked 3 goals in that match. Will get opportunities and volume.

Odds 6.50 (1 unit stake)

 

[HTPunter]

Thrillthorpe $35 for 5 on B365

More I think about this, more I like it

$4.25/$11/$35/$125 for 3-6

5th year key forward. Has kicked 5 twice in 53 games but has had games where he’s dominated short periods (3 goals in the 2nd half v St Kilda in the wet in Cairns back in his first season, 2.2 in the first quarter v Sydney last game 2024 spring to mind), he is an excellent contested mark (38 in 2023 which was good for 13th in the comp), & he’s got the perfect match up tomorrow.

It might well be Fog who goes off but I suspect Wilkie goes to him and keeps him honest.

Then it’s Cordy to either Thilthorpe or Tex, with Webster on the other. Either way if Nicks can actually get the Crows to utilise the forward line advantage and move quickly instead of being the most boring coach in football (even with Longmuir still coaching) then I think the stars align for Thrillho