Position 2025 Fantasy Forwards

[stallon]

If he went below 55 (for whatever reason) you could contemplate holding off until post Rd 3 bye, he wouldn't get away from you and would allow you to cash in on another rook who pops Rd0.

He is an absolute flourbag merchant so I could see a world where Scott loses patience with him if he's getting it 30 times and turning it over ever other kick - that's not really Geelong's modus operandi.

Edit: the latter comment was more about being a longterm hold for the season.

Danger has played nearly 200 games for the Cats btw

 

[happy_eagle]

View attachment 2210724
He's the most selected Fantasy player at nearly 70%, and now at Geelong he has the keys to the midfield we are told.

Opening Round he plays Brisbane at the Gabba.
He then has Freo Rnd 1 at the Alphabet Stadium, then StKilda at Marvel. Then the Rnd 3 Bye. Then Melb, Adel, Haw, Carl, Coll, GWS, Port, WBD

He is $598k, with a BE of 55. The Fantasy Coach predicts him to be a 75 against Brisbane. The Traders can't see a world where he is less than a 100avge.

Is there a world after Opening Round you don't take Bailey Smith? What is your line in the sand score?

I'd say realistic worst case he's 85
Realistic best case hes 100.

So average wise i'd put him low 90s. Priced at 50 still makes him a must have imo.

 

[Corkintheocean]

Danger has played nearly 200 games for the Cats btw

That's true, but he has a few more strings to his bow than Smith.

 

[Phar Ace]

I'd say realistic worst case he's 85
Realistic best case hes 100.

So average wise i'd put him low 90s. Priced at 50 still makes him a must have imo.

No arguments there, but my question was, is there a score in Opening Round that makes you not include him in your team?

 

[Phar Ace]

If he went below 55 (for whatever reason) you could contemplate holding off until post Rd 3 bye, he wouldn't get away from you and would allow you to cash in on another rook who pops Rd0.

He is an absolute flourbag merchant so I could see a world where Scott loses patience with him if he's getting it 30 times and turning it over ever other kick - that's not really Geelong's modus operandi.

Edit: the latter comment was more about being a longterm hold for the season.

Thank you - that is the point. What world exists where you might fade Bailey Smith after Round Zero? Hence why I put up all the subsequent teams he faces for a goodly period.

Other than StKilda, the run is not great for a while. That Opening Round game is going to be influential perhaps.

 

[Phar Ace]

3 is extreme but even if Smith drops a 75 in round 0 he's still increasing in price. You're just making money to pay more for a player you're going to get anyway.

But what is your line in the sand? Extreme or otherwise?

 

[stallon]

Problem if Bailey scores a 30 as a mid for example and you dont start him, you know youre more than likely going to have to get him in a couple of weeks later for almost the same price anyway, as we still expect 85+ from him the next week.
Thats a trade burnt for what? potentially saving a tiny amount of cash? instead of using that trade to jump on the rookie you missed who has just scored a 75 in their first game and is ready to shoot up in value?

He easily could drop an 90+ in R1 after that 40 in R0, then still go up in value anyway.

We are picking Bailey not with the main intention of making money, but as a keeper at a huge discount. I dont think theres anything he could do in R0 that could convince me hes not value.

Extreme example, but if Daicos was priced at 60 for some reason, and scored 50 in R0, would you still pick him?

 

[Phar Ace]

Even if Smith isnt in a big CBA% role I dont think it matters at he Cats, their wings and HFFs scored pretty well, better or as good as their actual mids.
Dempsey went at 73 in his first season of AFL while playing on a wing, Bailey should beat that if on a wing.
Smith went at 83 while doing 30% CBAs at the Dogs in 2023.

Cant really go wrong

Shouldn't. He's a very good player

But it's a hypothetical question that asks, what if that unpredictable occurs? Not a Kiddy Coleman type Rnd 1 injury - no one wants to see that happen to players. Concussions happen though, various awareness's happen, tags and run-with roles happen. In his career he's had a 47, 75 and 126 at the Gabba against the Lions.

His career, excluding his first season (to be fair), he's gone sub 70 - 23 times in 74 games and had 17 scores over 100.

 

[Phar Ace]

Problem if Bailey scores a 30 as a mid for example and you dont start him, you know youre more than likely going to have to get him in a couple of weeks later for almost the same price anyway, as we still expect 85+ from him the next week.
Thats a trade burnt for what? potentially saving a tiny amount of cash? instead of using that trade to jump on the rookie you missed who has just scored a 75 in their first game and is ready to shoot up in value?

He easily could drop an 90+ in R1 after that 40 in R0, then still go up in value anyway.

We are picking Bailey not with the main intention of making money, but as a keeper at a huge discount. I dont think theres anything he could do in R0 that could convince me hes not value.

Extreme example, but if Daicos was priced at 60 for some reason, and scored 50 in R0, would you still pick him?

Agree, the role will dictate a lot - his average without the 2022 year is pretty ordinary. I'm just glad we get to see him first. BE of 55, he's got to become 75avg at least. 2021 and 2023 he average around 85. 2022 was a great year at 105 - they are what we all hope for. Daicos is not quite the model I'd be comparing him too yet. he's a very different cat - pun intended!

 

[Corkintheocean]

Thank you - that is the point. What world exists where you might fade Bailey Smith after Round Zero? Hence why I put up all the subsequent teams he faces for goodly period.

Other than StKilda, the run is not great for a while. That Opening Round game is going to be influential perhaps.

I think St Kilda were quite restrictive for mids in the second half of last year. Mostly because they were 2nd lowest for stoppages.

 

[Corkintheocean]

Problem if Bailey scores a 30 as a mid for example and you dont start him, you know youre more than likely going to have to get him in a couple of weeks later for almost the same price anyway, as we still expect 85+ from him the next week.
Thats a trade burnt for what? potentially saving a tiny amount of cash? instead of using that trade to jump on the rookie you missed who has just scored a 75 in their first game and is ready to shoot up in value?

He easily could drop an 90+ in R1 after that 40 in R0, then still go up in value anyway.

We are picking Bailey not with the main intention of making money, but as a keeper at a huge discount. I dont think theres anything he could do in R0 that could convince me hes not value.

Extreme example, but if Daicos was priced at 60 for some reason, and scored 50 in R0, would you still pick him?

You'd also get the additional cash to get a mid pricer to a premo, and an extra premo on field in Rd3 if it's a non-bye player. Provided you avoid injuries, you're often sideways trading prior to round 4 anyway as rooks aren't properly fattened. Whether or not that's worth the cost of a trade (it likely isn't) is another matter - worth a thought experiment though.

 

[Phar Ace]

I think St Kilda were quite restrictive for mids in the second half of last year. Mostly because they were 2nd lowest for stoppages.

Back 5 they controlled Essendon, Richmond, Geelong, but Lions and Blues got them with multiple tons. Maybe.

 

[happy_eagle]

No arguments there, but my question was, is there a score in Opening Round that makes you not include him in your team?

If he gets through the game, he is in my team I think. Even if thats a 50 from high TOG.

If he gets injured, I'd probably steer clear even if named the following week.

A spanner in the works would be if hes sub R0. In that case I'd probably get him post bye.

 

[stallon]

You'd also get the additional cash to get a mid pricer to a premo, and an extra premo on field in Rd3 if it's a non-bye player. Provided you avoid injuries, you're often sideways trading prior to round 4 anyway as rooks aren't properly fattened. Whether or not that's worth the cost of a trade (it likely isn't) is another matter - worth a thought experiment though.

If you downgrade Bailey to a forward rookie(very few good ones seem to be going around) and upgrade a mid-pricer(probably will have to be a mid) to a premium, you are losing out on 2 big value options for likely just a sub 50 scoring rookie and a guy who is close to max value.

If you sideways Bailey to some 400-600k fwd that pops up, youll still have the same structure but with less upside, and have a forced trade by round 4, if not earlier.

I dont think its worth upgrading Bailey to a better forward, the midfield guys around that 70-90 price point are just better value than the forwards at that level.

I just cant see it being worth it at this early stage to skip Bailey off a poor performance as long as hes got a role we can expect 75+ from him in.
Opportunity cost and the trade wasted early on is just too valuable

Definitely worth considering though as you say, if any of the 4 must-have forwards arent pickable in round 1 then we are going to have some re-shuffling to do

 

[Corkintheocean]

If you downgrade Bailey to a forward rookie(very few good ones seem to be going around) and upgrade a mid-pricer(probably will have to be a mid) to a premium, you are losing out on 2 big value options for likely just a sub 50 scoring rookie and a guy who is close to max value.

If you sideways Bailey to some 400-600k fwd that pops up, youll still have the same structure but with less upside, and have a forced trade by round 4, if not earlier.

I dont think its worth upgrading Bailey to a better forward, the midfield guys around that 70-90 price point are just better value than the forwards at that level.

I just cant see it being worth it at this early stage to skip Bailey off a poor performance as long as hes got a role we can expect 75+ from him in.
Opportunity cost and the trade wasted early on is just too valuable

Definitely worth considering though as you say, if any of the 4 must-have forwards arent pickable in round 1 then we are going to have some re-shuffling to do

I mean I'm not going to fade Smith because he presents way to much value...but the mid pricer you are giving up value on in the midfield may not perform either!




/Rumsfeld

 

[stallon]

I mean I'm not going to fade Smith because he presents way to much value...but the mid pricer you are giving up value on in the midfield may not perform either!




/Rumsfeld

Haha way so many variables to account for every outcome in a single comment.

Im just trying to picture myself on the thursday morning before round 1, what would I want to do with the forward line if something ruins my plans

 

[tigs2010]

I think it's well known how many times I've own that campaigner Bailey Smith.

Think 2021 he was more wing, 2023 mostly half forward at centre bounces and 2022 a mid.

Expecting he will outperform 21 & 23 this year as he should be the main guy but 22 will be a bridge too far as Geelong don't play that friendly style where one guy goes nuts.

Expecting a 95-100 and me melting over his floor games.

 

[Phar Ace]

Haha way so many variables to account for every outcome in a single comment.

Im just trying to picture myself on the thursday morning before round 1, what would I want to do with the forward line if something ruins my plans

And that's the game right there - it's as much a trading game as a simple game of assessment. Moments of sliding doors.

Grundy last year was not too dissimilar in a pure Fantasy sense. Considered real value too good to be missed @ $677k - and lots went there, especially after an Opening Round pop of 118. Money for jam!

Worries set in after a 53 in Rnd 1. Finished the season on $743k if you held. Not so great. But he had a peak of $948k at Rnd 16 if you were lucky enough to bail then. Still averaged a very respectable 97.1pts for the season proper, which more than met expectations.

Like Grundy was in 2024, is Bailey Smith just a cash cow, or is he going to be a keeper, or, will he do tigs2010 head in once again?

 

[tigs2010]

And that's the game right there - it's as much a trading game as a simple game of assessment. Moments of sliding doors.

Grundy last year was not too dissimilar in a pure Fantasy sense. Considered real value too good to be missed @ $677k - and lots went there, especially after an Opening Round pop of 118. Money for jam!

Worries set in after a 53 in Rnd 1. Finished the season on $743k if you held. Not so great. But he had a peak of $948k at Rnd 16 if you were lucky enough to bail then. Still averaged a very respectable 97.1pts for the season proper, which more than met expectations.

Like Grundy, is Bailey Smith just a cash cow, or is he going to be a keeper, or, will he do tigs2010 head in once again?

I think Smith will be a keeper.

If we had 6 rucks () Grundy was a keeper.

Even if Smith ended up 7th or 8th forward I'd be shocked if you'd be trading him for a top 6 guy as he's just as likely to drop a 120 as anyone else.

 

[Phar Ace]

I think Smith will be a keeper.

If we had 6 rucks () Grundy was a keeper.

Even if Smith ended up 7th or 8th forward I'd be shocked if you'd be trading him for a top 6 guy as he's just as likely to drop a 120 as anyone else.

His peaks were great in 2022 - you know about his troughs, but he really only had two that season. And a 7th or 8th Fwd is not a high bar - it's displacing a Mason Wood, a Harry McKay or Luke Parker

 

[tigs2010]

His peaks were great in 2022 - you know about his troughs, but he really only had two that season. And a 7th or 8th Fwd is not a high bar - it's displacing a Mason Wood, a Harry McKay or Luke Parker

Those guys were more 10-12 though last year before they removed all the guys we actually owned

Just thinking if Smith is going 85 and it has him 7 or 8th with 6 rounds to go are you going to upgrade him or just keep him? (Assuming you have say the top 4 already)

 

[Phar Ace]

Those guys were more 10-12 though last year before they removed all the guys we actually owned

Just thinking if Smith is going 85 and it has him 7 or 8th with 6 rounds to go are you going to upgrade him or just keep him? (Assuming you have say the top 4 already)

Fair question I think we will all face, might even come earlier over the byes. It's said our teams should be made by then and so into luxury trades we go. You then start looking at roles even more closely, and what the likely upside is. I must admit I failed at that last season, chasing anything to catch up, then further down the rabbit hole I went. Hoping to take advice rather than give it

 

[Barrybran]

But what is your line in the sand? Extreme or otherwise?

I haven't thought about a line for Bailey Smith. He's priced at 58 so even if he dropped a 65 in opening round, he's still going to increase in price. Then he has to drop ANOTHER poor score to justify not starting him. I just don't see it happening. Best case scenario is he drops three stinkers and you trade into him at round 4. What is more likely to happen is he averages 90 and gains $120k. Whoever you choose instead of Smith has to beat that.

But to answer your question, a 65 in opening round followed by 100 in round 1 would see his price increase by 45k. Any more than 65 in opening round and you're selecting him.

 

[DenieD]

I haven't thought about a line for Bailey Smith.

I assure you Bailey Smith has definitely thought about a line

 

[Barrybran]

I assure you Bailey Smith has definitely thought about a line

He's with Geelong now. It's all about the bottom line