2025 Ladder Predictions

[JustaBattler]

It was a simple example that some teams are more likely than others.

Though according to you, they're not... Because it's all based on 'opinion' that can't be equated to probability....

No it wasnt a simple example it was your example - which omitted the current market - stop deflecting..

and of course opnion is just that - it isnt a probability it is an opnion about a future and unknown expected outcome- and expectations are just that...

I would have no argument with anyone- if instead of fancy pantsing nuffery by using the word Probability and substituted it for what it really is - odds based on a clearing mechanisms for opinions or guesses or wishes or hopes...

 

[JustaBattler]

How is it done then?

How is 'what' done?

 

[The Feeder Club]

So odds = probability

but

odds change

therefore probability changes

and these things change according to new information right?

So if there is ALWAYS going to be new information

knowing this -

probability is just what?

odds at a certain point in time?

and odds are?

the aggregate clearing market for VAR that market makers make...

right?

No, what I agree with is what I said - your statement that probability has nothing to do with odds is wrong. No kidding, as probability changes, odds change - that's maths for you.

 

[JustaBattler]

A lot of drivel without saying anything.

But are you saying that it is not more 'probable' for Brisbane to win the flag than any other team in the competition? For example, Richmond?

Opinions are based on data, and betting markets are based on these opinions.

Otherwise, how do YOU assess the relative 'probabilities' of each team winning the flag?

I dont kid myself that any 'assessment' I make today is a probability - because I understand that it is an opnion based on limited knowledge and outcomes that will inevitably change week to week according to hundreds of variables that cant be forecast.

In fact I scratch my head at the confidenve of people who presume to be able to make a call before a season has even started about what a whole bunch of teams who have not much seperating them week to week might or mihgt not achieve over the course of a year.

 

[JustaBattler]

No, what I agree with is what I said - your statement that probability has nothing to do with odds iss wrong. No kidding, as probability changes, odds change - that's maths for you.

If probability changes because things change - you are talking about system dynamics in a non equilibrium which of course is real world.

If we know that this is in fact how the real world operates ( and we do ) then what is probability ?

Sure you can ( AFTER the FACT) use simple agebra to INFER what expecfted outcomes where at any point in time- but this isn't 'probability'

the algebra you quoted by definition is a solution to an equation - but probability isnt of much interest after the fact and if things change all the time and therefore expectations change - people who reference 'probability' to describe this are chasing their own tail - very low signal to noise ratio.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Collingwood
Geelong
Hawthorn
Brisbane
Fremantle
Sydney
GWS
Adelaide

Gold Coast
Port Adelaide
Bulldogs
St Kilda
North Melbourne
Carlton
Essendon
West Coast
Melbourne
Richmond

Why am I not surprised the guy who rates Cox above Walsh, TDK and Cerra has us coming 14th...

 

[The Feeder Club]

If probability changes because things change - you are talking about system dynamics in a non equilibrium which of course is real world.

If we know that this is in fact how the real world operates ( and we do ) then what is probability ?

Sure you can ( AFTER the FACT) use simple agebra to INFER what expecfted outcomes where at any point in time- but this isn't 'probability'

the algebra you quoted by definition is a solution to an equation - but probability isnt of much interest after the fact and if things change all the time and therefore expectations change - people who reference 'probability' to describe this are chasing their own tail - very low signal to noise ratio.

I couldn't care less how you come up with a probability. You can be a nuffy sitting on a couch that plucks a figure out of the air and says "I reckon the probability of Fremantle winning the flag this year is 0.05". You can use a supercomputer to run a billion simulations of the 2025 AFL season that computes the probability of Fremantle winning the flag is 0.05. It's irrelevant to the single point I made, which is (despite your claim otherwise) odds are entirley based on probability

 

[Arr0w]

I couldn't care less how you come up with a probability. You can be a nuffy sitting on a couch that plucks a figure out of the air and says "I reckon the probability of Fremantle winning the flag this year is 0.05". You can use a supercomputer to run a billion simulations of the 2025 AFL season that computes the probability of Fremantle winning the flag is 0.05. It's irrelevant to the single point I made, which is (despite your claim otherwise) odds are entirley based on probability

An opening market would be, but beyond that, it's other factors, especially volume of money

It's a known fact, that if there is substantial money placed on one team A, odds change to reflect that volume

It's also known, that agencies will push out the odds on team B to entice gamblers to even the ledger, where the agency improves their payout position/profit

 

[Mr Meow]

"Ladder prediction" thread, or "are betting markets formed through probability" thread?

Answer: "Fadge posted so his Carlton groupies formed a mob" thread.

As far as I'm concerned people can speculate based on whatever they want to - betting odds, gut feel or the moon cycle. None of really have any idea anyway.

 

[JustaBattler]

I couldn't care less how you come up with a probability. You can be a nuffy sitting on a couch that plucks a figure out of the air and says "I reckon the probability of Fremantle winning the flag this year is 0.05". You can use a supercomputer to run a billion simulations of the 2025 AFL season that computes the probability of Fremantle winning the flag is 0.05. It's irrelevant to the single point I made, which is (despite your claim otherwise) odds are entirley based on probability

The probability of people mistaking 'chance' with 'probabilty' as far as betting on ladder positions this year goes is 1.

 

[Sewer de Lance]

My Snakes & Ladders 2025 prediction

1/ Brisbane - NEUTRAL - minimum Top 4
2/ Sydney - FALL - Bottom 8 - 12th range, hard to recover from another poor GF showing.
3/ Geelong - FALL - with a kind fixture, a 5-8th finish looks very achievable.
4/ Port - FALL - Unfavourable fixture alongside an unsavoury coach. 7-14th beckons.
5/ Hawthorn - RISE - Well balanced, well coached, upgraded defense Top 4 Lock.
6/ GWS - FALL - Lost some important depth in a very even comp. Just missing the 8.
7/ WBD - Neutral - Not sure they have the depth, but top end talent will take them to another EF.
8/ Carlton - RISE - Only injuries can curtail them from securing a Top 4 finish. VFL fixture certainly helps.

9/ Collingwood - RISE - should return to finals, but not Top 4 material for mine, despite another free pass Fixture.
10/ Fremantle - RISE - got the list to take them deep in September. Heave Ho-ing into a PF.
11/ Essendon - FALL - sorry Bombers fans, not even a zillion prime time game slots will save your season. 15-17th.
12/ St Kilda - Neutral - showing small signs of improvement, but happy to sit on them for another season. 9-14th.
13/ Gold Coast - Neutral - sorry Dimma I think you’ll play September footy in 2026. “As Above”
14/ Melbourne - RISE - still have the talent if they can sort out their off field issues. 5-8th is not out of the question.
15/ Adelaide - RISE - added some depth & Draper will make a big difference to their midfield. Finals bound 5-8th.
16/ WCE - Neutral - green shoots are beginning to appear, but another 13-17th finish is likely.
17/ North - RISE - not a big one but 12-16th is better than bottom 2. Got some great youngsters.
18/ Richmond - Guaranteed Spoon, but picked a great draft year to start the rebuild in earnest Watch out 2028+.

 

[Arr0w]

"Ladder prediction" thread, or "are betting markets formed through probability" thread?

When does any main board thread stay on topic

Answer: "Fadge posted so his Carlton groupies formed a mob" thread.

You must have missed other supporters kick off and or involved in the betting discussion

Answer: You still being a one-sided mouthpiece

As far as I'm concerned people can speculate based on whatever they want to - betting odds, gut feel or the moon cycle. None of really have any idea anyway.

And that's exactly what they are doing

 

[hawkman]

I don't see how Carlton can finish that low with their draw and a healthy list...

I think there are concerns about their small forwards and outside players. Who gets their goals if teams can hold Curnow and McKay?

 

[hawkman]

14th. 17th.

It doesn't really matter. Either way, well of the pace as usual.

It does for us. Pick 5 would be nice, pick 2 would be amazing

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I think there are concerns about their small forwards and outside players. Who gets their goals if teams can hold Curnow and McKay?

Did we not have the same issues this year? Got an extremely soft draw for 2025 and one would have to assume we won't be as unlucky with injury in 2025 as we were in 2024 unless Vossy saw a black cat, broke a mirror and walked under a ladder ... Still finished 8th after capitulating the back end of the season.

Can't see us finishing 12th with the softness of our draw.

 

[The Feeder Club]

The probability of people mistaking 'chance' with 'probabilty' as far as betting on ladder positions this year goes is 1.

You seem to have some obsession with probability being something it is not. There is no mistaking, probability is nothing more than the numeric quantification of chance. In turn, odds are a function of probability. It really isn't as enigmatic as you are making it out to be.

 

[parsons nose]

Maybe some people that have been watching longer than five minutes understand what a crock of unsustainable gimmickry hokball may prove to be, and make their predictions accordingly

Well, you got a like from Walsh is the goat and Red Bull, which squarely puts you on the wrong side of history.

 

[Mr Meow]

Did we not have the same issues this year? Got an extremely soft draw for 2025 and one would have to assume we won't be as unlucky with injury in 2025 as we were in 2024 unless Vossy saw a black cat, broke a mirror and walked under a ladder ... Still finished 8th after capitulating the back end of the season.

Can't see us finishing 12th with the softness of our draw.

The softness of the 2025 Carlton draw relative to 2024 is being overstated. Double ups are 3 likely finalists, 1 thereabouts side and 2 poor ones. That's essentially what happened in 2024 as well.

Carlton's improvement in ladder position would come more from getting things (in their control) right rather than getting more luck. And they have plenty of upside so there's a good chance that happens.

 

[Mr Meow]

When does any main board thread stay on topic


You must have missed other supporters kick off and or involved in the betting discussion

Answer: You still being a one-sided mouthpiece


And that's exactly what they are doing

It's more a case of you arguing for the sake of it given who was posting, which is par for the course but doesn't need to pollute non-banter threads.

 

[Fadge]

The softness of the 2025 Carlton draw relative to 2024 is being overstated. Double ups are 3 likely finalists, 1 thereabouts side and 2 poor ones. That's essentially what happened in 2024 as well.

Carlton's improvement in ladder position would come more from getting things (in their control) right rather than getting more luck. And they have plenty of upside so there's a good chance that happens.

You're falling for them again...

When will you learn?

 

[Mr Meow]

You're falling for them again...

When will you learn?

If Hinkley's heroes consistently finish top 4 I think Voss will be able to get this list there at some stage. I wouldn't be locking them in but 3rd-6th area seems reasonable. I think they'll be a bit more consistent in 2025.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

The softness of the 2025 Carlton draw relative to 2024 is being overstated. Double ups are 3 likely finalists, 1 thereabouts side and 2 poor ones. That's essentially what happened in 2024 as well.

Carlton's improvement in ladder position would come more from getting things (in their control) right rather than getting more luck. And they have plenty of upside so there's a good chance that happens.

Carlton had 7 games (double ups with 3 out of 4) vs top 4 opponents this year excluding finals. That's not a soft draw by any measure despite the double ups against two bottom teams too.

In 2025 we have double ups against some teams that look likely to make finals but imo no top 4 material.

Draw is far softer in 2025, and I'm happy to admit it's silly we were given such a draw after making finals the last couple years.

 

[Fadge]

If Hinkley's heroes consistently finish top 4 I think Voss will be able to get this list there at some stage. I wouldn't be locking them in but 3rd-6th area seems reasonable. I think they'll be a bit more consistent in 2025.

You'll learn.

 

[Mr Meow]

Carlton had 7 games (double ups with 3 out of 4) vs top 4 opponents this year excluding finals. That's not a soft draw by any measure despite the double ups against two bottom teams too.

In 2025 we have double ups against some teams that look likely to make finals but imo no top 4 material.

Draw is far softer in 2025, and I'm happy to admit it's silly we were given such a draw after making finals the last couple years.

Nah.

3rd was separated from 7th by a single victory, while the teams in 5th-7th had % higher than 2nd-4th. In other words it was incredibly even, really from 1st through 7th given Sydney lost momentum in the second half of the season. Thus any analysis keeping it to top 4 is really flawed.

If Geelong and Port lost one of their close games by a point because the ball bounced funny once, your entire distribution would be flipped on its head.

Given Port beat the team in 7th by a kick in a SF and Geelong lost a prelim to 5th, it confirmed how even it was.

So yeah the 3 good teams, 1 okay team and 2 poor team split for double ups looks about the same.

 

[hawkman]

Nah.

3rd was separated from 7th by a single victory, while the teams in 5th-7th had % higher than 2nd-4th. In other words it was incredibly even, really from 1st through 7th given Sydney lost momentum in the second half of the season. Thus any analysis keeping it to top 4 is really flawed.

If Geelong and Port lost one of their close games by a point because the ball bounced funny once, your entire distribution would be flipped on its head.

Given Port beat the team in 7th by a kick in a SF and Geelong lost a prelim to 5th, it confirmed how even it was.

So yeah the 3 good teams, 1 okay team and 2 poor team split for double ups looks about the same.

Also at worst you would think at least one of their double ups of Hawthorn, Collingwood or Port will be in and around the top 4