2025 Ladder Predictions

[WalshistheGOAT]

Nah.

3rd was separated from 7th by a single victory, while the teams in 5th-7th had % higher than 2nd-4th. In other words it was incredibly even, really from 1st through 7th given Sydney lost momentum in the second half of the season. Thus any analysis keeping it to top 4 is really flawed.

If Geelong and Port lost one of their close games by a point because the ball bounced funny once, your entire distribution would be flipped on its head.

Given Port beat the team in 7th by a kick in a SF and Geelong lost a prelim to 5th, it confirmed how even it was.

So yeah the 3 good teams, 1 okay team and 2 poor team split for double ups looks about the same.

Not going to agree on this so may as well move on.

I think we've been given just about the softest draw there is in 2025, our 2024 one was far more difficult.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Also at worst you would think at least one of their double ups of Hawthorn, Collingwood or Port will be in and around the top 4

I wouldn't have any of those 3 teams as top 4 material next year. Think there will be far stronger teams in 2025.

 

[Mr Meow]

Not going to agree on this so may as well move on.

I think we've been given just about the softest draw there is in 2025, our 2024 one was far more difficult.

You could've tried to support your argument or contest anything I said though, so it looks like you basically agree.

No one came out of the season thinking Port were a clearly better side than Hawthorn or Geelong clearly better than Brisbane. So the top 4 vs top 8 distinction you made was useless.

In fact Carlton played Geelong and Port on one of the occasions they were absolutely useless. Then one time when they were in form. Both teams were very inconsistent.

 

[hawkman]

I wouldn't have any of those 3 teams as top 4 material next year.

You may not but I think most would have at least 1 of them many may even have 2 of them.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

You could've tried to support your argument or contest anything I said though, so it looks like you basically agree.

No one came out of the season thinking Port were a clearly better side than Hawthorn or Geelong clearly better than Brisbane. So the top 4 vs top 8 distinction you made was useless.

In fact Carlton played Geelong and Port on one of the occasions they were absolutely useless. Then one time when they were in form. Both teams were very inconsistent.

I can support it all u want but end of the day I'm not really interested in trying to convince you my opinion is correct on the matter.

How you see teams going next year greatly affects how you view another teams fixture.

I don't see the Hawks, Pies or Port being real players next year and I see Essendon as bottom 4-6 material so I see the fixture as extremely soft. Others might think all 4 of those teams will be right in the mix and thus judge our fixture as extremely difficult.

It's a matter of opinion so there's no point

 

[Gavin Excell]

You may not but I think most would have at least 1 of them many may even have 2 of them.

Hawks made finals and beat Dogs and then were beaten by Port who were flogged by other finalists

Great effort from where they came from, but the finals performance isn't overly compelling

 

[Gavin Excell]

I can support it all u want but end of the day I'm not really interested in trying to convince you my opinion is correct on the matter.

How you see teams going next year greatly affects how you view another teams fixture.

I don't see the Hawks, Pies or Port being real players next year and I see Essendon as bottom 4-6 material so I see the fixture as extremely soft. Others might think all 4 of those teams will be right in the mix and thus judge our fixture as extremely difficult.

It's a matter of opinion so there's no point

Carlton I'd add to that group
Seem flimsy

But each to their own

 

[Mr Meow]

I can support it all u want but end of the day I'm not really interested in trying to convince you my opinion is correct on the matter.

How you see teams going next year greatly affects how you view another teams fixture.

I don't see the Hawks, Pies or Port being real players next year and I see Essendon as bottom 4-6 material so I see the fixture as extremely soft. Others might think all 4 of those teams will be right in the mix and thus judge our fixture as extremely difficult.

It's a matter of opinion so there's no point

To put it another way, the top 4 teams Carlton doubled up against in 2024 combined for 20 losses by the end of finals and had an average % of around 112. These weren't dominant sides any more than Brisbane, Bulldogs and Hawthorn were as a collective.

2024 had 7 good teams, a bunch fighting to make up the numbers and then 3 cellar dwellers.

Bolded would be your actual point, simply that you don't see those double up sides as being that good. Which is fair enough and a matter of opinion. Like hawkman said, the average speculator likely has them doing a bit better than what you seemed to be and could have them producing quality similar to Geelong, Port and GWS of 2024 (each of whom was a fraction off finishing 5th-7th). Essendon are an inconsistent unit through seasons, so it depends when a side gets them.

Most things are opinions, but of course there's a point discussing them or else why declare something as if it is a fact ("Carlton's 2025 fixture is much softer than 2024")?

 

[hawkman]

Hawks made finals and beat Dogs and then were beaten by Port who were flogged by other finalists

Great effort from where they came from, but the finals performance isn't overly compelling

Can definitely look at that way. I can understand a Geelong supporter looking for negatives plus Geelong beat us easily both times probably influences opinions
I'm obviously more optimistic in that we won a final and a goal post width away from winning another missing 2 of our best 5 mids, our best key forward and we are bringing 2 quality key backs into the team

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Carlton I'd add to that group
Seem flimsy

But each to their own

Sure, they might well be. Doesn't really have anything to do with what I was discussing though...

 

[Mr Meow]

Can definitely look at that way. I can understand a Geelong supporter looking for negatives plus Geelong beat us easily both times probably influences opinions
I'm obviously more optimistic in that we won a final and a goal post width away from winning another missing 2 of our best 5 mids, our best key forward and we are bringing 2 quality key backs into the team

Against that, Port were not a strong team and any decently performing opponent would beat them by 6 goals in a final. Geelong got the job done by about 80 points and then still lost a home prelim.

But regardless, Hawthorn should at least be as good as Port were in 2024 (likely better) and so present no easier double up for Carlton. Collingwood I think will be a bit better, so that double up could become harder. Then Port will be one of those teams that could end up anywhere 3rd to 10th, a bit like Geelong of 2024. It's difficult to see how the double up options look a lot easier in 2025. But of course form will vary for each team (good luck predicting that for every teams list of double ups) and the old "it's not who you play, but when you play them" seems more true than ever in the modern game.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

To put it another way, the top 4 teams Carlton doubled up against in 2024 combined for 20 losses by the end of finals and had an average % of around 112. These weren't dominant sides any more than Brisbane, Bulldogs and Hawthorn were as a collective.

2024 had 7 good teams, a bunch fighting to make up the numbers and then 3 cellar dwellers.

Bolded would be your actual point, simply that you don't see those double up sides as being that good. Which is fair enough and a matter of opinion. Like hawkman said, the average speculator likely has them doing a bit better than what you seemed to be and could have them producing quality similar to Geelong, Port and GWS of 2024 (each of whom was a fraction off finishing 5th-7th). Essendon are an inconsistent unit through seasons, so it depends when a side gets them.

Most things are opinions, but of course there's a point discussing them or else why declare something as if it is a fact ("Carlton's 2025 fixture is much softer than 2024")?

Id have the top 4 consisting of 4 of Freo, Sydney, GWS, Brisbane, Carlton, Geelong and my smokey is Adelaide who I think will be the big risers with the list improvements they made this off season.

Given Carlton have no double ups against those teams and have some favourable location fixturing against some of them too - Brisbane in Melbourne, GWS in Melbourne, Geelong at the G - I think, in combination with the double ups against 3 bottom 6 teams in NM, WCE and Ess that we'll be towards the top end of the ladder regardless of whether we're a genuine contender or more of a Hinkley style fraudulent participant which I suspect could be a possibility in 2025.

 

[Fadge]

...and my smokey is Adelaide who I think will be the big risers with the list improvements they made this off season.

Picking a team to rise based on list improvements?

That's a novel concept....

 

[Mr Meow]

Id have the top 4 consisting of 4 of Freo, Sydney, GWS, Brisbane, Carlton, Geelong and my smokey is Adelaide who I think will be the big risers with the list improvements they made this off season.

Given Carlton have no double ups against those teams and have some favourable location fixturing against some of them too - Brisbane in Melbourne, GWS in Melbourne, Geelong at the G - I think, in combination with the double ups against 3 bottom 6 teams in NM, WCE and Ess that we'll be towards the top end of the ladder regardless of whether we're a genuine contender or more of a Hinkley style fraudulent participant which I suspect could be a possibility in 2025.

Yeah fair enough.

Timing is that variable that none of us can predict anyway. Like Geelong got Port in arguably their best performance of the season in H&A (at Geelong), then their worst in the QF. Yes Geelong were much better the second time around but there's no doubting Port were tough one match and made of fairy floss the next.

Port, as pathetic as they are in finals, keep finding ways to be competitive in H&A. I reckon a double up against them next year will be a similar scenario as 2024, even if they end up finishing 8th or whatever.

But yeah overall I see Carlton climbing the ladder a bit same as you, just for different reasons.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Picking a team to rise based on list improvements?

That's a novel concept....

Rankine, Rachelle, Soligo, Thilthorpe, Curtin, N.Murray, Draper.

There's a bit of a difference between that and the Pies youth which is N.Daicos and then zilch. They've made some fantastic list moves for where their team is.

 

[Fadge]

Rankine, Rachelle, Soligo, Thilthorpe, Curtin, N.Murray, Draper.

Lots of players with potential there who are yet to play in finals, including 1st, 2nd and 3rd year key position players.

Unfortunately, Collingwood will just have to settle with a list of finals proven premiership players.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Lots of players with potential there who are yet to play in finals.

Unfortunately, Collingwood will just have to settle with a list of finals proven premiership players.

Lol what a cop out answer. Who are the Pies youth we can expect to help propel them back into finals?

Or are they relying on the oldest team in league history come 2025 thinking that's gonna end up good for them lmao?

 

[Mr Meow]

Lol what a cop out answer. Who are the Pies youth we can expect to help propel them back into finals?

Or are they relying on the oldest team in league history come 2025 thinking that's gonna end up good for them lmao?

If they rise up (which I think they easily could), for Collingwood I'd see it as being mostly from experienced players ala Geelong 2022 (who looked gone in the previous finals series). SDK and Holmes did emerge that year (Pies already have N.Daicos, can one young KPD step up?) and Stengle was a great recruit who instantly improved a part of the field (different position but Houston should do the same).

Otherwise it'll depend on their 24+ bracket performing more like 2023 than 2024 as a collective. It's unfair to expect too much from Pendlebury and Sidebottom, but players like Moore, McStay, JDG, Maynard, Quaynor, McReery, Hill, Lipinski could give them more as far as fitness and output.

 

[Fadge]

Lol what a cop out answer. Who are the Pies youth we can expect to help propel them back into finals?

Or are they relying on the oldest team in league history come 2025 thinking that's gonna end up good for them lmao?

I told my club that we should have gone to the draft to pick up 18 year olds to improve our chances in 2025, but they didn't listen to me and instead traded in Houston and Perryman to compliment a squad that won a flag 15 months ago.

 

[wannabewinner]

Expecting Collingwood to get back into finals and Carlton to drop out.

Purely basing it on Pies trading in an AA running back vs Carlton nothing special.

 

[Arr0w]

I told my club that we should have gone to the draft to pick up 18 year olds to improve our chances in 2025, but they didn't listen to me and instead traded in Houston and Perryman to compliment a squad that won a flag 15 months ago.

Was that like spending a 1st and 2nd rounder on Schultz, that was also going to improve your fortunes

 

[JustaBattler]

I told my club that we should have gone to the draft to pick up 18 year olds to improve our chances in 2025, but they didn't listen to me and instead traded in Houston and Perryman to compliment a squad that won a flag 15 months ago.

you dont have to bother- yoru coach is already on teh record as saying he doesnt want picks he wants playaZ..

wot a gangsta!

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I told my club that we should have gone to the draft to pick up 18 year olds to improve our chances in 2025, but they didn't listen to me and instead traded in Houston and Perryman to compliment a squad that won a flag 15 months ago.

Traded in 2 senior players to a list hanging on the edge of the cliff with some of the most senior statesmen in the game. Pies won't finish above 6th this year, the old brigade can't apply the pressure they need to over a season anymore. As we saw in 2024.

And unfortunately for the Pies, they truly have the worst youth there is in the comp outside of N.Daicos there's zilch.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

If they rise up (which I think they easily could), for Collingwood I'd see it as being mostly from experienced players ala Geelong 2022 (who looked gone in the previous finals series). SDK and Holmes did emerge that year (Pies already have N.Daicos, can one young KPD step up?) and Stengle was a great recruit who instantly improved a part of the field (different position but Houston should do the same).

Otherwise it'll depend on their 24+ bracket performing more like 2023 than 2024 as a collective. It's unfair to expect too much from Pendlebury and Sidebottom, but players like Moore, McStay, JDG, Maynard, Quaynor, McReery, Hill, Lipinski could give them more as far as fitness and output.

They already did this in 2023. Anyone watching them last year could see they were cooked. Houston and Perryman won't change that, they just might cushion the fall a bit.

 

[Mr Meow]

They already did this in 2023. Anyone watching them last year could see they were cooked. Houston and Perryman won't change that, they just might cushion the fall a bit.

But the players I mentioned were pretty much in their peak or just hitting veteran level. Fair enough JDG has the OP issue but a lot of the rest could easily have much better seasons in 2025 than 2024. In theory if a handful of them just play a few more "good" games, all other things being equal (along with Houston's obvious injection of quality), that can quite easily turn a 12 win team into a 15 win one. It isn't easy to see how Collingwood will be good in 3 years without an emergence of youth, but it's fairly simple to see how they could be in 2025.

You and Fadge are just way too emotionally attached to the result, to objectively measure each other's sides.